Crim e S ta t Ve rs io n 3.

1 U p d a te N o te s
Th ese n ot es pr ovide in for m a t ion on ly on ch a n ges t o Cr im eSt a t III sin ce t h e r elea se of ver sion 3.0. Th e u pda t ed pr ogr a m a n d com plet e docu m en t a t ion a r e fou n d on t h e Cr im eSt a t down loa d pa ge a t : h t t p://www.icpsr .u m ich .edu /cr im est a t

F ix e s a n d Im p ro v e m e n ts to Ve rs io n 3.0
Th e followin g fixes a n d im pr ovem en t s in ver sion 3.0 h a ve been m a de. 1. F or a n y ou t pu t file, t h e pr ogr a m n ow ch eck s t h a t a pa t h wh ich is defin ed a ct u a lly exist s. Th e Geom et r ic Mea n ou t pu t in t h e Mea n cen t er a n d st a n da r d dist a n ce r ou t in e u n der Spa t ia l Descr ipt ion n ow a llows weigh t ed va lu es. It is defin ed a s (Wik ipedia , 2007a ):
N

2.

Geom et r ic Mea n of X = GM(X) =

( Xi Wi )1/(EWi)
i=1 N

(Up.1)

Geom et r ic Mea n of Y = GM(Y) =

A (Yi Wi)1/(EWi)
i=1

(Up.2)

wh er e A is t h e pr odu ct t er m of ea ch poin t va lu e, i (i.e., t h e va lu es of X or Y a r e m u lt iplied t im es ea ch ot h er ), W i is t h e weigh t u sed (defa u lt =1), a n d N is t h e sa m ple size (E ver it t , 1995). Th e weigh t s h a ve t o be defin ed on t h e P r im a r y F ile pa ge, eit h er in t h e Weigh t s field or in t h e In t en sit y field (bu t n ot bot h t oget h er ). Th e equ a t ion ca n be eva lu a t ed by loga r it h m s. 1 G[Wi *Ln (Xi)] Ln [GM(X)] = ---- [ W 1 *Ln (X1 ) + W 2 *Ln (X2 ) + ..+ W 2 *Ln (XN ) ] = -----------------GW i GW i 1 G[Wi *Ln (Yi)] Ln [GM(Y)] = ---- [ W 1 *Ln (Y1 ) + W 2 *Ln (Y2 ) + ..+ W 2 *Ln (YN ) ] = ----------------GW i GW i

(Up.3)

(Up.4)

GM(X) = GM(Y) =

e L n [GM (X)] e L n [GM (Y)]

(Up.5) (Up.6)

Th e geom et r ic m ea n is t h e a n t i-log of t h e m ea n of t h e loga r it h m s. If weigh t s a r e u sed, t h en t h e loga r it h m of ea ch X or Y va lu e is weigh t ed a n d t h e su m of t h e weigh t ed loga r it h m s a r e divided by t h e su m of t h e weigh t s. If weigh t s a r e n ot u sed, t h en t h e defa u lt weigh t is 1 a n d t h e su m of t h e weigh t s will equ a l t h e sa m ple size. Th e geom et r ic m ea n is ou t pu t a s pa r t of t h e Mcsd r ou t in e a n d h a s a Gm pr efix befor e t h e u ser defin ed n a m e. Th e geom et r ic m ea n is u sed wh en u n it s a r e m u lt ipled by ea ch ot h er (e.g., a st ock s va lu e in cr ea ses by 10% on e yea r , 15% t h e n ext , a n d 12% t h e n ext ) (Wikipedia , 2007a ). On e ca n t ju st t a k e t h e sim ple m ea n beca u se t h er e is a cu m u la t ive ch a n ge in t h e u n it s. In m ost ca ses, t h is is n ot r eleva n t t o poin t (in ciden t ) loca t ion s sin ce t h e coor din a t es of ea ch in ciden t a r e in depen den t a n d a r e n ot m u lt iplied by ea ch ot h er . H owever , t h e geom et r ic m ea n ca n be u sefu l beca u se it fir st con ver t s a ll X a n d Y coor din a t es in t o loga r it h m s a n d, t h u s, h a s t h e effect of discou n t in g ext r em e va lu es. 3. Also, t h e H a r m on ic Mea n ou t pu t in t h e Mea n cen t er a n d st a n da r d dist a n ce r ou t in e u n der Spa t ia l Descr ipt ion n ow a llows weigh t ed va lu es. It is defin ed a s (Wik ipedia , 2007b):

GW i
H a r m on ic m ea n of X = H M(X) = ------------------G [W i/(Xi)] (Up.7)

GW i
H a r m on ic m ea n of Y = H M(Y) = ------------------G [W i/(Yi)] (Up.8)

wh er e W i is t h e weigh t u sed (defa u lt =1), a n d N is t h e sa m ple size. Th e weigh t s h a ve t o be defin ed on t h e P r im a r y F ile pa ge, eit h er in t h e Weigh t s field or in t h e In t en sit y field (bu t n ot bot h t oget h er ). In ot h er wor ds, t h e h a r m on ic m ea n of X a n d Y r espect ively is t h e in ver se of t h e m ea n of t h e in ver se of X a n d Y r espect ively (i.e., t a ke t h e in ver se; t a k e t h e m ea n of t h e in ver se; a n d in ver t t h e m ea n of t h e in ver se). If weigh t s a r e u sed, t h en ea ch X or Y va lu e is weigh t ed by it s in ver se a n d t h e n u m er a t or is t h e su m of t h e weigh t s. If weigh t s a r e n ot u sed, t h en t h e defa u lt weigh t is 1 a n d t h e su m of t h e weigh t s will equ a l t h e sa m ple size. Th e h a r m on ic m ea n is ou t pu t a s pa r t of t h e Mcsd r ou t in e a n d h a s a H m pr efix befor e t h e u ser defin ed n a m e.

Typica lly, h a r m on ic m ea n s a r e u sed in ca lcu la t in g t h e a ver a ge of r a t es, or qu a n t it ies wh ose va lu es a r e ch a n gin g over t im e (Wik ipedia , 2007b). F or exa m ple, in ca lcu la t in g t h e a ver a ge speed over m u lt iple segm en t s of equ a l len gt h (see ch a pt er 16 on Net wor k Assign m en t ), t h e h a r m on ic m ea n sh ou ld be u sed, n ot t h e a r it h m et ic m ea n . If t h er e a r e t wo a dja cen t r oa d segm en t s, ea ch on e m ile in len gt h a n d if a ca r t r a vels over t h e fir st segm en t 20 m iles per h ou r (m ph ) bu t over t h e secon d segm en t a t 40 m ph , t h e a ver a ge speed is n ot 30 m ph (t h e a r it h m et ic m ea n ), bu t 26.7 m ph (t h e h a r m on ic m ea n ). Th e ca r t a k es 3 m in u t es t o t r a vel t h e fir st segm en t (60 m in u t es per h ou r t im es 1 m ile divided by 20 m ph ) a n d 1.5 m in u t es t o t r a vel t h e secon d segm en t (60 m in u t es per h ou r t im es 1 m ile divided by 40 m ph ). Th u s, t h e t ot a l t im e t o t r a vel t h e t wo m iles is 4.5 m in u t es a n d t h e a ver a ge speed is 26.7 m ph (60 m in u t es per h ou r t im es 2 m iles divided by 4.5 m in u t es). Aga in , for poin t (in ciden t ) loca t ion s, t h e h a r m on ic m ea n wou ld n or m a lly n ot be r eleva n t sin ce t h e coor din a t es of ea ch of t h e in ciden t s a r e in depen den t . H owever , sin ce t h e h a r m on ic m ea n is weigh t ed m or e h ea vily by t h e sm a ller va lu es, it ca n be u sefu l t o discou n t ca ses wh ich h a ve ou t lyin g coor din a t es. 4. Th e t est st a t ist ic for t h e Lin ea r Nea r est Neigh bor in dex on t h e Dist a n ce An a lysis I pa ge n ow gives t h e cor r ect pr oba bilit y level. Sever a l fixes h a ve been m a de t o t h e Cr im e Dem a n d m odel r ou t in es: A. In t h e Ma ke pr edict ion r ou t in e u n der t h e Tr ip Gen er a t ion m odu le of t h e Cr im e Tr a vel Dem a n d m odel, t h e ou t pu t va r ia ble h a s been ch a n ged fr om P r edict ion t o ADJ ORIGINS for t h e or igin m odel a n d ADJ DE ST for t h e dest in a t ion m odel. In t h e Ca lcu la t e obser ved or igin -dest in a t ion t r ips r ou t in e u n der t h e Descr ibe or igin -dest in a t ion t r ips of t h e Tr ip Dist r ibu t ion m odu le of t h e Cr im e Tr a vel Dem a n d m odel, t h e ou t pu t va r ia ble is n ow ca lled F RE Q. Un der t h e Set u p or igin -dest in a t ion m odel pa ge of t h e Tr ip Dist r ibu t ion m odu le of t h e Cr im e Tr a vel Dem a n d, t h er e is a n ew pa r a m et er defin in g t h e m in im u m n u m ber of t r ips per cell. Typica lly, in t h e gr a vit y m odel, m a n y cells will h a ve sm a ll pr edict ed va lu es (e.g., 0.004). In or der t o con cen t r a t e t h e pr edict ed va lu es, t h e u ser ca n set a m in im u m level. If t h e pr edict ed va lu e is below t h is m in im u m , t h e r ou t in e a u t om a t ica lly set s a zer o (0) va lu e wit h t h e r em a in in g pr edict ed va lu es bein g r e-sca led so t h a t t h e t ot a l n u m ber of pr edict ed t r ips r em a in s con st a n t . Th e defa u lt va lu e is 0.05. Th is pa r a m et er sh ou ld be u sed ca u t iou sly, h owever , a s ext r em e con cen t r a t ion ca n occu r by m er ely r a isin g t h is va lu e. Beca u se t h e n u m ber of pr edict ed t r ips r em a in s con st a n t , set t in g a m in im u m t h a t

5.

B.

C.

is t oo h igh will h a ve t h e effect of in cr ea sin g a ll eligible va lu es (i.e., t h ose gr ea t er t h a n t h e m in im u m ) su bst a n t ia lly beyon d t h e m in im u m . F or exa m ple, in on e r u n wh er e t h e m in im u m wa s set a t 5, t h e r esca led m in im u m va lu e wa s 13.3. D. F or t h e Net wor k Assign m en t r ou t in e, t h e pr efix for t h e n et wor k loa d ou t pu t is n ow VOL. In defin in g a t r a vel n et wor k eit h er on t h e Mea su r em en t P a r a m et er s pa ge or on t h e Net wor k Assign m en t pa ge, if t h e n et wor k is defin ed a s sin gle dir ect ion a l, t h en t h e F r om on e wa y fla g a n d To on e wa y fla g opt ion s a r e bla n k ed ou t .

E.

6.

Crim e Tra v e l D e m a n d P ro je c t D ire c to ry U tility . Th e Cr im e Tr a vel Dem a n d m odu le is a com plex m odel t h a t in volves m a n y differ en t files. Beca u se of t h is, we r ecom m en d t h a t t h e sepa r a t e st eps in t h e m odel be st or ed in sepa r a t e dir ect or ies u n der a m a in pr oject dir ect or y. Wh ile t h e u ser ca n sa ve a n y file t o a n y dir ect or y wit h in t h e m odu le, keepin g t h e in pu t s a n d ou t pu t files in sepa r a t e dir ect or ies ca n m a k e it ea sier t o iden t ify files a s well a s exa m in e files t h a t h a ve a lr ea dy been u sed a t som e la t er t im e. A n ew pr oject dir ect or y u t ilit y t a b u n der t h e Cr im e Tr a vel Dem a n d m odu le a llows t h e cr ea t ion of a m a st er dir ect or y for a pr oject a n d fou r sepa r a t e su bdir ect or ies u n der t h e m a st er dir ect or y t h a t cor r espon d t o t h e fou r m odelin g st a ges. Th e u ser pu t s in t h e n a m e of a pr oject in t h e dia logu e box a n d poin t s it t o a pa r t icu la r dr ive a n d dir ect or y loca t ion (depen din g on t h e n u m ber of dr ives a va ila ble t o t h e u ser ). F or exa m ple, a pr oject dir ect or y m igh t be ca lled Robber ies 2003 or Ba n k r obber ies 2005. Th e u t ilit y t h en cr ea t es t h is dir ect or y if it does n ot a lr ea dy exist a n d cr ea t es fou r su b-dir ect or ies u n der n ea t h t h e pr oject dir ect or y: Tr ip gen er a t ion Tr ip dist r ibu t ion Mode split Net wor k a ssign m en t Th e u ser ca n t h en sa ve t h e differ en t ou t pu t files in t o t h e a ppr opr ia t e dir ect or ies. F u r t h er , for ea ch sequ en t ia l st ep in t h e cr im e t r a vel dem a n d m odel, t h e u ser ca n ea sily fin d t h e ou t pu t file fr om t h e pr eviou s st ep wh ich wou ld t h en becom e t h e in pu t file for t h e n ext st ep.

N e w Ro u t in e s
B a y e s ia n J o u rn e y to Crim e Mo d u le Th e Ba yesia n J ou r n ey t o Cr im e m odu le (Ba yesia n J t c) a r e a set of t ools for est im a t in g t h e lik ely r esiden ce loca t ion of a ser ia l offen der . It is a n ext en sion of t h e dist a n ce-ba sed J ou r n ey t o cr im e r ou t in e (J t c) wh ich u ses a t ypica l t r a vel dist a n ce fu n ct ion t o m a k e gu esses a bou t t h e lik ely r esiden ce loca t ion . Th e ext en sion in volves t h e u se a n or igin -dest in a t ion m a t r ix wh ich pr ovides in for m a t ion a bou t t h e pa r t icu la r or igin s of offen der s wh o com m it t ed cr im es in pa r t icu la r dest in a t ion s. F ir st , t h e em pir ica l t h eor y beh in d t h e Ba yesia n J t c r ou t in e will be descr ibed. Th en , t h e da t a r equ ir em en t s will be discu ssed. F in a lly, t h e r ou t in e will be illu st r a t ed som e da t a fr om Ba lt im or e Cou n t y. B a y e s ian P ro ba bility Ba yes Th eor em is a for m u la t ion t h a t r ela t es t h e con dit ion a l a n d m a r gin a l pr oba bilit y dist r ibu t ion s of r a n dom va r ia bles. Th e m argin al probability dist r ibu t ion is a pr oba bilit y in depen den t of a n y ot h er con dit ion s. H en ce, P (A) a n d P (B) is t h e m a r gin a l pr oba bilit y (or ju st pla in pr oba bilit y) of A a n d B r espect ively. Th e con d ition al probability is t h e pr oba bilit y of a n even t given t h a t som e ot h er even t h a s occu r r ed. It is wr it t en in t h e for m of P (A| B) (i.e., even t A given t h a t even t B h a s occu r r ed). In pr oba bilit y t h eor y, it is defin ed a s: P (A a n d B) ----------------P (B)

P (A| B) =

(Up.9)

Con dit ion a l pr oba bilit ies ca n be best be seen in con t in gen cy t a bles. Ta ble Up.1 below sh ow a possible sequ en ce of cou n t s for t wo va r ia bles (e.g., t a k in g a sa m ple of per son s a n d cou n t in g t h eir gen der - m a le = 1; fem a le = 0, a n d t h eir a ge - older t h a n 30 = 1; 30 or you n ger = 0). Th e pr oba bilit ies ca n be obt a in ed ju st by cou n t in g: P (A) = 30/50 = 0.6 P (B) = 35/50 = 0.7 P (A a n d B) = 25/50 = 0.5 P (A or B) = (10 + 5 + 25)/50 = 0.8 P (A| B) = 25/35 = 0.71 P (B| A) = 25/30 = 0.83

Ta ble Up.1:

Ex a m p le o f D e te rm in in g P ro ba bilitie s by Co u n tin g
A has NOT Occu r r ed B h a s NOT Occu r r ed B has Occu r r ed TOTAL A has Occu r r ed

TOTAL

10

15

10 20

25 30

35

H owever , if fou r of t h ese six ca lcu la t ion s a r e kn own , Ba yes Th eor em ca n be u sed t o solve for t h e ot h er t wo. Two logica l t er m s in pr oba bilit y a r e t h e a n d a n d or con dit ion s. Usu a lly, t h e sym bol c is u sed for or a n d 1 is u sed for a n d, bu t wr it in g it in wor ds m a k es it ea sier t o u n der st a n d. Th e followin g t wo t h eor em s defin e t h ese. 1. Th e pr oba bilit y t h a t eit h er A or B will occu r is P (A or B) = P (A) + P (B) - P (A a n d B) 2. Th e pr oba bilit y t h a t bot h A a n d B will occu r is: P (A a n d B) = P (A) * P (B| A) = P (B)*P (A| B) Ba yes Th eor em r ela t es t h e t wo equ iva len t s of t h e a n d con dit ion t oget h er . P (B) * P (A| B) = P (A) * P (B| A) P (A) * P (B| A) ------------------P (B) (Up.12) (Up.11) (Up.10)

P (A| B) =

(Up.13)

Th e t h eor em is som et im es ca lled t h e in ver se pr oba bilit y in t h a t it ca n in ver t t wo con dit ion a l pr oba bilit ies: P (B) * P (A| B) -------------------P (A)

P (B| A) =

(Up.14)

By plu ggin g in t h e va lu es fr om t h e exa m ple in t a ble Up.1, t h e r ea der ca n ver ify t h a t Ba yes Th eor em pr odu ces t h e cor r ect r esu lt s (e.g., P (B| A) = 0.7 * 0.71/0.6 = 0.83).

B a y e s ia n In fe re n c e In t h e st a t ist ica l in t er pr et a t ion of Ba yes Th eor em , t h e pr oba bilit ies a r e est im a t es of a r a n dom va r ia ble. Let 2 be a pa r a m et er of in t er est a n d let X be som e da t a . Th u s, we ca n expr ess Ba yes Th eor em a s: P (X| 2) * P (2) ------------------P (X)

P (2| X) =

(Up.15)

In t er pr et in g t h is equ a t ion , P (2| X) is t h e pr oba bilit y of 2 given t h e da t a , X. P (2) is t h e pr oba bilit y t h a t 2 h a s a cer t a in dist r ibu t ion a n d is oft en ca lled t h e prior probability . P (X| 2) is t h e pr oba bilit y t h a t t h e da t a wou ld be obt a in ed given t h a t 2 is t r u e a n d is oft en ca lled t h e lik elih ood fu n ction (i.e., it is t h e lik elih ood t h a t t h e da t a will be obt a in ed given t h e dist r ibu t ion of 2). F in a lly, P (X) is t h e m a r gin a l pr oba bilit y of t h e da t a , t h e pr oba bilit y of obt a in in g t h e da t a u n der a ll possible scen a r ios; essen t ia lly, it is t h e da t a . We ca n r eph r a se t h is equ a t ion in logica l t er m s: Lik elih ood of P r ior obt a in in g t h e da t a pr oba bilit y given 2 is t r u e * of 2 -------------------------------------------------P r ior pr oba bilit y of X

Th e pr oba bilit y t h a t 2 is t r u e given t h e da t a , X =

(Up.16)

In ot h er wor ds, t h is for m u la t ion a llows a n est im a t e of t h e pr oba bilit y of a pa r t icu la r pa r a m et er , 2, t o be u pda t ed given n ew in for m a t ion . Sin ce 2 is t h e pr ior pr oba bilit y of a n even t , given som e n ew da t a , X, Ba yes Th eor em ca n be u sed t o u pda t e t h e est im a t e of 2. Th e pr ior pr oba bilit y of 2 ca n com e fr om pr ior st u dies, a n a ssu m pt ion of n o differ en ce bet ween a n y of t h e con dit ion s a ffect in g 2, or a n a ssu m ed m a t h em a t ica l dist r ibu t ion . Th e lik elih ood fu n ct ion ca n a lso com e fr om em pir ica l st u dies or a n a ssu m ed m a t h em a t ica l fu n ct ion . Ir r espect ive of h ow t h ese a r e in t er pr et ed, t h e r esu lt is a n est im a t e of t h e pa r a m et er , 2, given t h e eviden ce, X. Th is is ca lled t h e posterior probability (or post er ior dist r ibu t ion ). A poin t t h a t is oft en m a de is t h a t t h e pr ior pr oba bilit y of obt a in in g t h e da t a (t h e den om in a t or of t h e a bove equ a t ion ) is n ot kn own or ca n t ea sily be eva lu a t ed. Th e da t a a r e wh a t we obt a in fr om som e da t a ga t h er in g exer cise (eit h er exper im en t a l or obt a in ed fr om obser va t ion s). Th u s, it s n ot ea sy t o est im a t e it . Con sequ en t ly, oft en t h e n u m er a t or on ly is u sed for est im a t e t h e post er ior pr oba bilit y sin ce P (2| X) % P (X| 2) * P (2) (Up.17)

wh er e % m ea n s pr opor t ion a l t o. In som e st a t ist ica l m et h ods (e.g., t h e Ma r k ov Ch a in Mon t e Ca r lo sim u la t ion , or MCMC), t h e pa r a m et er of in t er est is est im a t ed by t h ou sa n ds of r a n dom sim u la t ion s u sin g a ppr oxim a t ion s t o P (X| 2) a n d P (2) r espect ively.

Ap p lic a tio n o f B a y e s ian In fe re n c e to J o u rn e y to Crim e An a ly s is We ca n a pply Ba yes Th eor em t o t h e jou r n ey t o cr im e m et h odology. In t h e J ou r n ey t o Cr im e (J t c) m et h od, we wa n t t o m a k e a gu ess (est im a t e) a bou t wh er e a ser ia l offen der is livin g. Th e J t c m et h od pr odu ces a n est im a t e ba sed on a n a ssu m ed t r a vel dist a n ce fu n ct ion (or , in m or e r efin ed u ses of t h e m et h od, t r a vel t im e). Th a t is, we a ssu m e t h a t a n offen der follows a t ypica l t r a vel dist a n ce fu n ct ion . Th is fu n ct ion ca n be est im a t ed fr om pr ior st u dies (Ca n t er a n d Gr egor y, 1994; Ca n t er , 2003) or fr om cr ea t in g a sa m ple of k n own offen der s - a ca libr a t ion sa m ple (Levin e, 2004) or fr om a ssu m in g t h a t ever y offen der follows a pa r t icu la r m a t h em a t ica l fu n ct ion (Rossm o, 1995; 2000). E ssen t ia lly, it s a pr ior pr oba bilit y for a pa r t icu la r loca t ion , 2. Th a t is, it is a gu ess a bou t wh er e t h e offen der lives (t h e dist r ibu t ion of 2). We a ssu m e t h e offen der wer e in t er est ed in a r r est in g is followin g a n exist in g t r a vel dist a n ce m odel. It is t h e equ iva len t of P (2) in equ a t ion Up.15 a bove. H owever , we ca n a dd a ddit ion a l in for m a t ion fr om a sa m ple of kn own offen der s wh er e bot h t h e cr im e loca t ion a n d t h e r esiden ce loca t ion a r e kn own . We wou ld obt a in t h is in for m a t ion fr om t h e a r r est r ecor ds, ea ch of wh ich will h a ve a cr im e loca t ion defin ed (wh ich well ca ll a dest in a t ion ) a n d a r esiden ce loca t ion (ca lled a n or igin ). If we t h en a ssign t h ese loca t ion s t o a set of zon es, we ca n cr ea t e a m a t r ix t h a t r ela t es t h e or igin zon es t o t h e dest in a t ion zon es (figu r e Up.1). Th is is ca lled a n origin -d estin ation m a t r ix (or a t r ip dist r ibu t ion m a t r ix). In t h is figu r e, t h e n u m ber in dica t e t h e n u m ber of cr im es t h a t wer e com m it t ed in ea ch dest in a t ion zon e t h a t or igin a t ed (i.e., t h e offen der lived) in ea ch or igin zon e. F or exa m ple, t a k in g t h e fir st r ow in figu r e Up.1, t h er e wer e 37 cr im es t h a t wer e com m it t ed in zon e 1 a n d in wh ich t h e offen der a lso lived in zon e 1; t h er e wer e 15 cr im es com m it t ed in zon e 2 in wh ich t h e offen der lived in zon e 1; h owever , t h er e wer e on ly 7 cr im es com m it t ed in zon e 2 in wh ich t h e offen der lived in zon e 1; a n d so for t h . Not e t wo t h in gs a bou t t h e m a t r ix. F ir st , t h e n u m ber of or igin zon es ca n be (a n d u su a lly is) gr ea t er t h a n t h e n u m ber of dest in a t ion zon es beca u se cr im es ca n or igin a t e ou t side t h e st u dy a r ea . Secon d, t h e m a r gin a l t ot a ls h a ve t o be equ a l. Th a t is, t h e n u m ber of cr im es com m it t ed in a ll dest in a t ion zon es h a s t o equ a l t h e n u m ber of cr im es or igin a t in g in a ll or igin zon es. We ca n t r ea t t h is in for m a t ion a s t h e lik elih ood est im a t e for t h e J ou r n ey t o Cr im e fr a m ewor k . Th a t is, if we h a ve a cer t a in dist r ibu t ion of in ciden t s com m it t ed by a pa r t icu la r ser ia l offen der , we ca n u se t h is m a t r ix t o m a k e a n est im a t e of t h e lik ely or igin zon es t h a t t h is offen der ca m e fr om , in depen den t of a n y a ssu m pt ion a bou t t r a vel dist a n ce. In ot h er wor ds, t h is m a t r ix is equ iva len t t o t h e lik elih ood fu n ct ion in equ a t ion Up.15, wh ich is r epea t ed below: P (X| 2) * P (2) ----------------P (X)

P (2| X) =

r epea t (Up.15)

Figure Up.1:

Crime Origin-Destination Matrix

Crime destination zone

1 2 3 4 5 N

G
346 1050 711 84 178

1 2

37
7 12 4 8 . . .

15

21 14

4 0 7

3 4 6 1

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

12 15 33 0 14 . . .

53
9 10 7 . . . 5

Crime origin zone

3 4 5

81
6 28 . . . 43

12
2 . . . 3
99

24
. . . 10
110

12
153

. . . . . .

92
812

1466

276 1245

43,240

Th u s, we ca n im pr ove ou r est im a t e of t h e lik ely loca t ion of a ser ia l offen der by u pda t in g t h e est im a t e fr om t h e J t c m et h od, P (2), wit h in for m a t ion fr om a n em pir ica llyder ived lik elih ood est im a t e, P (X| 2). Bu t , wh a t a bou t t h e den om in a t or , P (X)? E ssen t ia lly, it s t h e spa t ia l dist r ibu t ion of a ll cr im es ir r espect ive of wh ich pa r t icu la r m odel or scen a r io wer e explor in g. On e ca n t h in k of it a s a gen eral dist r ibu t ion of offen der s ir r espect ive of wh er e a n y pa r t icu la r offen der h a s com m it t ed cr im es (I ca ll it t h e r ou n d u p t h e u su a l su spect s dist r ibu t ion ). Im goin g t o ch a n ge t h e sym bols a t t h is poin t so t h e J tc r epr esen t s t h e dist a n ceba sed J ou r n ey t o Cr im e est im a t e, O r epr esen t s a n est im a t e ba sed on a n or igin -dest in a t ion m a t r ix, a n d O| J tc r epr esen t s t h e pa r t icu la r or igin s a ssocia t ed wit h cr im es com m it t ed in t h e sa m e zon es a s t h a t iden t ified in t h e J tc est im a t e. Th er efor e, t h er e a r e t h r ee differ en t est im a t es of wh er e a n offen der lives: 1. An est im a t e of t h e r esiden ce loca t ion of a sin gle offen der ba sed on t h e loca t ion of t h e in ciden t s t h a t t h is per son com m it t ed a n d a n a ssu m ed t r a vel dist a n ce fu n ct ion , P (J t c); An est im a t e of t h e r esiden ce loca t ion of a sin gle offen der ba sed on a gen er a l dist r ibu t ion of a ll offen der s, ir r espect ive of a n y pa r t icu la r dest in a t ion s for in ciden t s, P (O). E ssen t ia lly, t h is is t h e dist r ibu t ion of or igin s ir r espect ive of t h e dest in a t ion s; a n d An est im a t e of t h e r esiden ce loca t ion of a sin gle offen der ba sed on t h e dist r ibu t ion of offen der s given t h e dist r ibu t ion of in ciden t s com m it t ed by t h e sin gle offen der , P (O| J t c).

2.

3.

Th er efor e, we ca n u se Ba yes Th eor em t o cr ea t e a n est im a t e t h a t com bin es in for m a t ion bot h fr om a t r a vel dist a n ce fu n ct ion a n d a n or igin -dest in a t ion m a t r ix (equ a t ion Up.18):1 P (O| J t c) * P (J t c) -----------------------P (O)

P (J t c| O) =

(Up.18)

Th e B a y e s ia n J o u rn e y to Crim e Es tim a tio n Mo d u le Th e Ba yesia n J ou r n ey t o Cr im e est im a t ion m odu le is m a de u p of t wo r ou t in es, on e for dia gn osin g wh ich J ou r n ey t o Cr im e m et h od is best a n d on e for a pplyin g t h a t m et h od t o a pa r t icu la r ser ia l offen der . F igu r e Up.2 sh ows t h e la you t of t h e m odu le.

N ot e t h a t t h e ou t p u t of t h e r ou t in e lis t s P (O -D ) a n d P (O -D | J t c) r a t h e r t h a n P (O ) a n d P (O | J t c). H ow e v e r , t h is w ill b e ch a n ge d in t h e n e xt ve r s ion .

10

D a ta p re p a ra tio n fo r B a y e s ia n J o u rn e y to c rim e e s tim a tio n Th er e a r e t h r ee da t a set s t h a t a r e r equ ir ed a n d on e opt ion a l da t a set . Th e t h r ee r equ ir ed on es a r e: 1. Th e in ciden t s com m it t ed by a sin gle offen der for wh ich a n est im a t e will be m a de of wh er e t h a t in dividu a l lives; A J ou r n ey t o Cr im e t r a vel dist a n ce fu n ct ion t h a t est im a t es t h e lik elih ood of a n offen der com m it t in g cr im es a t a cer t a in dist a n ce (or t r a vel t im e if a n et wor k is u sed); a n d An or igin -dest in a t ion m a t r ix.

2.

3.

Th e fou r t h , opt ion a l da t a set is a dia gn ost ics file of m u lt iple kn own ser ia l offen der s for wh ich bot h t h eir r esiden ce a n d cr im e loca t ion s a r e kn own . S er i a l offen d er d a t a F or ea ch ser ia l offen der for wh om a n est im a t e will be m a de of wh er e t h a t per son lives, t h e da t a set sh ou ld in clu de t h e loca t ion of t h e in ciden t s com m it t ed by t h e offen der . Th e da t a a r e set u p a s a ser ies of r ecor ds in wh ich ea ch r ecor d r epr esen t s a sin gle even t . On ea ch da t a set , t h er e a r e X a n d Y coor din a t es iden t ifyin g t h e loca t ion of t h e in ciden t s t h is per son h a s com m it t ed (Ta ble Up.2). Journey to Crime travel function The Journey to Crime travel function (Jtc) is an estimate of the likelihood of an offender traveling a certain distance. Typically, it represents a frequency distribution of distances traveled, though it could be a frequency distribution of travel times if a network was used to calibrate the function with the Journey to crime estimation routine. It can come from an a priori assumption about travel distances, prior research, or a calibration data set of offenders who have already been caught. The Calibrate Journey to Crime function routine (on the Journey to Crime page under Spatial modeling) can be used to estimate this function. Details are found in chapter 10 of the CrimeStat manual. The BJtc routine can use two different travel distance functions: 1) An already-calibrated distance function; and 2) A mathematical formula. Either direct or indirect (Manhattan) distances can be used though the default is direct (see Measurement parameters). O r i g i n -d est i n a t i on m a t r i x Th e or igin -dest in a t ion m a t r ix r ela t es t h e n u m ber of offen der s wh o com m it cr im es in on e of N zon es wh o live (or igin a t e) in on e of M zon es, sim ila r t o figu r e Up.1 a bove. It ca n be cr ea t ed fr om t h e Ca lcu la t e obser ved or igin -dest in a t ion t r ips r ou t in e (on t h e Descr ibe or igin -dest in a t ion t r ips pa ge u n der t h e Tr ip dist r ibu t ion m odu le of t h e Cr im e Tr a vel Dem a n d m odel).

11

Figure Up.2:

Bayesian Journey-to-Crime Modeling Screen

Table Up.2: Minimum Information Required for Serial Offender Data: Example for Offender Who Committed Seven Incidents ID TS7C TS7C TS7C TS7C TS7C TS7C TS7C UCR 430.00 440.00 630.00 430.00 311.00 440.00 341.00 INCIDX -76.494300 -76.450900 -76.460600 -76.450700 -76.449700 -76.450300 -76.448200 INCIDY 39.284600 39.318500 39.315700 39.318100 39.316200 39.317800 39.312300

D i a g n ost i cs fi l e for Ba yesi a n J t c r ou t i n e Th e fou r t h da t a set is u sed for est im a t in g wh ich of sever a l pa r a m et er s is best a t pr edict in g t h e r esiden ce loca t ion of ser ia l offen der s in a pa r t icu la r ju r isdict ion . E ssen t ia lly, it is a set of ser ia l offen der s, ea ch r ecor d of wh ich h a s in for m a t ion on t h e X a n d Y coor din a t es of t h e r esiden ce loca t ion a s well a s t h e cr im e loca t ion . It is sim ila r t o t a ble Up.2 a bove except t h a t it in volves in for m a t ion on m u lt iple offen der s, ea ch of wh om com m it t ed m u lt iple even t s. For exa m ple, offen der T7b com m it t ed seven in ciden t s wh ile offen der S8a com m it t ed eigh t in ciden t s. Th e a im of t h e dia gn ost ics file is t o pr ovide in for m a t ion t o t h e a n a lyst a bou t wh ich of sever a l pa r a m et er s (t o be descr ibed below) a r e best a t gu essin g wh er e a n offen der lives. Th e a ssu m pt ion is t h a t if a pa r t icu la r pa r a m et er wa s best wit h t h e K offen der s in a dia gn ost ics file in wh ich t h e r esiden ce loca t ion wa s kn own , t h en t h e sa m e pa r a m et er will a lso be best for a ser ia l offen der for wh om t h e r esiden ce loca t ion is n ot kn own . H ow m a n y ser ia l offen der s a r e n eeded t o m a k e u p a dia gn ost ics file? Th er e is n o sim ple a n swer t o t h is. Clea r ly, t h e m or e, t h e bet t er sin ce t h e a im is t o iden t ify wh ich pa r a m et er is m ost sen sit ive wit h a cer t a in level of pr ecision a n d a ccu r a cy. I u sed 88 offen der s in m y dia gn ost ics file (see below). Cer t a in ly, a m in im u m of 10 wou ld be n ecessa r y. Bu t , m or e wou ld cer t a in ly be m or e a ccu r a t e. F u r t h er , t h e offen der r ecor ds u sed in t h e dia gn ost ics file sh ou ld be sim ila r in ot h er dim en sion s t o t h e offen der t h a t is bein g t r a ck ed. H owever , t h is m a y be im pr a ct ica l. In t h e exa m ple da t a set , I com bin ed offen der s wh o com m it t ed differ en t t ypes of cr im es. As I sh ow below, differ en t cr im es a ppea r t o dist in gu ish t h e pa r a m et er s t h a t sh ou ld be u sed. Bu t , t h is does r equ ir e m a n y set s of kn own ser ia l offen der s. On ce t h e da t a set s h a ve been collect ed, t h ey n eed t o be pla ced in a n a ppen ded file, wit h on e ser ia l offen der on t op of a n ot h er . E a ch r ecor d h a s t o r epr esen t a sin gle in ciden t . F u r t h er , t h e r ecor ds h a ve t o be a r r a n ged sequ en t ia lly wit h a ll t h e r ecor ds for a sin gle

13

offen der bein g gr ou ped t oget h er . Th e r ou t in e a u t om a t ica lly sor t s t h e da t a by t h e offen der ID. Bu t , t o be su r e t h a t t h e r esu lt is con sist en t , t h e da t a sh ou ld be pr epa r ed in t h is wa y. Th e st r u ct u r e of t h e r ecor ds is seen in t h e exa m ple in t a ble Up.3. At t h e m in im u m , t h er e is a n eed for a n ID field, a n d t h e X a n d Y coor din a t es of bot h cr im e loca t ion a n d t h e r esiden ce loca t ion. Th u s, in t h e exa m ple, a ll t h e r ecor ds for t h e fir st offen der (Nu m 1) a r e t oget h er ; a ll t h e r ecor ds for t h e secon d offen der (Nu m 2) a r e t oget h er ; a n d so for t h . Th e ID field is a n y st r in g va r ia ble. In t a ble Up.2, t h e ID field is la beled Nu m #, bu t a n y la bel wou ld be a ccept a ble a s lon g a s it is con sist en t (i.e., a ll t h e r ecor ds of a sin gle offen der a r e t oget h er ). In a ddit ion t o t h e ID field, t h e X a n d Y coor din a t es of bot h t h e cr im e a n d r esiden ce loca t ion m u st be in clu ded on ea ch r ecor d. In t a ble Up.3, t h e cr im e loca t ion coor din a t es a r e ca lled In cidX a n d In cidY r espect ively wh ile t h e r esiden ce loca t ion coor din a t es a r e ca lled H om eX a n d H om eY r espect ively. Aga in , a n y la bel is a ccept a ble a s lon g a s t h e colu m n loca t ion s in ea ch r ecor d a r e con sist en t . As wit h t h e J ou r n ey t o Cr im e ca libr a t ion file, ot h er fields ca n be in clu ded. Lo g ic o f th e Ro u tin e Th e r ou t in e is divided in t o t wo pa r t s (u n der t h e Ba yesia n J ou r n ey t o Cr im e E st im a t ion pa ge of Spa t ia l Modelin g): 1. 2. Dia gn ost ics for J ou r n ey t o Cr im e m et h ods; a n d E st im a t e lik ely or igin loca t ion of a ser ia l offen der .

Th e dia gn ost ics r ou t in e t a k es t h e dia gn ost ics ca libr a t ion file a n d est im a t es a n u m ber of m et h ods for ea ch ser ia l offen der in t h e file a n d t est s t h e a ccu r a cy of ea ch pa r a m et er a ga in st t h e kn own r esiden ce loca t ion . Th e r esu lt is a com pa r ison of t h e differ en t m et h ods in t er m s of a ccu r a cy in pr edict in g bot h wh er e t h e offen der lives a s well a s m in im izin g t h e dist a n ce bet ween wh er e t h e m et h od pr edict s t h e m ost lik ely loca t ion for t h e offen der a n d wh er e t h e offen der a ct u a lly lives. Th e est im a t e r ou t in e a llows t h e u ser t o ch oose on e m et h od a n d t o a pply it t o t h e da t a for a sin gle ser ia l offen der . Th e r esu lt is a pr oba bilit y su r fa ce sh owin g t h e r esu lt s of t h e m et h od in pr edict in g wh er e t h e offen der is lia ble t o be livin g.

14

Ta ble U p .3: Ex a m p le Re c o rd s in B a y e s ia n J o u rn e y to Crim e D ia g n o s tic s F ile Offen der ID Nu m 1 Nu m 1 Nu m 1 Nu m 2 Nu m 2 Nu m 2 Nu m 3 Nu m 3 Nu m 3 Nu m 4 Nu m 4 Nu m 4 Nu m 5 Nu m 5 Nu m 5 Nu m 5 Nu m 6 Nu m 6 Nu m 6 Nu m 6 Nu m 7 Nu m 7 Nu m 7 Nu m 7 . . . . Nu m La st Nu m La st Nu m La st Nu m La st Nu m La st Nu m La st Nu m La st H om eX -77.1496 -77.1496 -77.1496 -76.3098 -76.3098 -76.3098 -76.7104 -76.7104 -76.7104 -76.5179 -76.5179 -76.5179 -76.3793 -76.3793 -76.3793 -76.3793 -76.5920 -76.5920 -76.5920 -76.5920 -76.7152 -76.7152 -76.7152 -76.7152 H om eY In cidX In cidY 39.3762 -76.6101 39.3729 39.3762 -76.5385 39.3790 39.3762 -76.5240 39.3944 39.4696 -76.5427 39.3989 39.4696 -76.5140 39.2940 39.4696 -76.4710 39.3741 39.3619 -76.7195 39.3704 39.3619 -76.8091 39.4428 39.3619 -76.7114 39.3625 39.2501 -76.5144 39.3177 39.2501 -76.4804 39.2609 39.2501 -76.5099 39.2952 39.3524 -76.4684 39.3526 39.3524 -76.4579 39.3590 39.3524 -76.4576 39.3590 39.3524 -76.4512 39.3347 39.3719 -76.5867 39.3745 39.3719 -76.5879 39.3730 39.3719 -76.7166 39.2757 39.3719 -76.6015 39.4042 39.3468 -76.7542 39.2815 39.3468 -76.7516 39.2832 39.3468 -76.7331 39.2878 39.3468 -76.7281 39.2889

-76.4320 -76.4880 -76.4437 -76.4085 -76.4083 -76.4082 -76.4081

39.3182 39.3372 39.3300 39.3342 39.3332 39.3324 39.3335

-76.4297 -76.4297 -76.4297 -76.4297 -76.4297 -76.4297 -76.4297

39.3172 39.3172 39.3172 39.3172 39.3172 39.3172 39.3172

15

D ia g n o s tic s fo r J o u rn e y to Crim e Me th o d s Th e followin g a pplies t o t h e dia gn ost ics r ou t in e on ly. D a ta In p u t Th e u ser in pu t s t h e fou r r equ ir ed da t a set s. 1. An y pr im a r y file wit h a n X a n d Y loca t ion . A su ggest ion is t o u se on e of t h e files for t h e ser ia l offen der , bu t t h is is n ot essen t ia l; A gr id t h a t will be over la id on t h e st u dy a r ea . Use t h e Refer en ce F ile u n der Da t a Set u p t o defin e t h e X a n d Y coor din a t es of t h e lower -left a n d u pper r igh t cor n er s of t h e gr id a s well a s t h e n u m ber of colu m n s; A J ou r n ey t o Cr im e t r a vel fu n ct ion (J t c) t h a t est im a t es t h e lik elih ood of a n offen der com m it t in g cr im es a t a cer t a in dist a n ce (or t r a vel t im e if a n et wor k is u sed); An or igin -dest in a t ion m a t r ix; a n d Th e dia gn ost ics file of k n own ser ia l offen der s in wh ich bot h t h eir r esiden ce a n d cr im e loca t ion s a r e kn own . Me th o d s Te s te d Th e dia gn ost ics r ou t in e com pa r es seven m et h ods for est im a t in g t h e lik ely loca t ion of a ser ia l offen der : 1. 2. Th e J t c dist a n ce m et h od, P (J t c); Th e gen er a l cr im e dist r ibu t ion ba sed on t h e or igin -dest in a t ion m a t r ix, P (O). E ssen t ia lly, t h is is t h e dist r ibu t ion of or igin s ir r espect ive of t h e dest in a t ion s; Th e dist r ibu t ion of or igin s ba sed on ly on t h e in ciden t s com m it t ed by t h e ser ia l offen der , P (O| J t c); Th e pr odu ct of t h e J t c est im a t e (1 a bove) a n d t h e dist r ibu t ion of or igin s ba sed on ly on t h e in ciden t s com m it t ed by t h e ser ia l offen der (3 a bove), P (J t c)*P (O| J t c). Th is is t h e n u m er a t or of t h e Ba yesia n fu n ct ion (equ a t ion Up.18), t h e pr odu ct of t h e pr ior pr oba bilit y t im es t h e lik elih ood est im a t e; Th e sim ple a ver a ge of t h e J t c est im a t e (1 a bove) a n d t h e dist r ibu t ion of or igin s ba sed on ly on t h e dist r ibu t ion of in ciden t s com m it t ed by t h e ser ia l

2.

3.

4. 5.

3.

4.

5.

16

offen der (3 a bove), P (J t c) + P (O| J t c). Th is is a n a lt er n a t ive t o t h e pr odu ct t er m (4 a bove)2 ; 6. Th e fu ll Ba yesia n est im a t e a s in dica t ed in equ a t ion Up.18 a bove (m et h od 4 a bove divided by m et h od 2 a bove), P (Ba yesia n ); a n d Th e cen t er of m in im u m dist a n ce, Cm d. P r eviou s r esea r ch h a s in dica t ed t h a t t h e cen t er of m in im u m of dist a n ce pr odu ces t h e lea st er r or in m in im izin g t h e dist a n ce bet ween wh er e t h e m et h od pr edict s t h e m ost lik ely loca t ion for t h e offen der a n d wh er e t h e offen der a ct u a lly lives (Levin e, 2004). In te rp o la te d Grid F or ea ch ser ia l offen der in t u r n a n d for ea ch m et h od, t h e r ou t in e over la ys a gr id over t h e st u dy a r ea . Th e gr id is defin ed by t h e Refer en ce F ile pa r a m et er s (u n der Da t a Set u p; see ch a pt er 3). Th e r ou t in e t h en in t er pola t es ea ch in pu t da t a set in t o a pr oba bilit y est im a t e for ea ch gr id cell wit h t h e su m of t h e cells equ a lin g 1.0 (wit h in t h r ee decim a l pla ces). Th e m a n n er in wh ich t h e in t er pola t ion is don e va r ies by t h e m et h od: 1. F or t h e J t c m et h od, P (J t c), t h e r ou t in e in t er pola t es t h e select ed dist a n ce fu n ct ion t o ea ch gr id cell t o pr odu ce a den sit y est im a t e. Th e den sit ies a r e t h en r e-sca led so t h a t t h e su m of t h e gr id cells equ a ls 1.0 (see ch a pt er 10); F or t h e gen er a l cr im e dist r ibu t ion m et h od, P (O), t h e r ou t in e su m s u p t h e in ciden t s by ea ch or igin zon e fr om t h e or igin -dest in a t ion m a t r ix a n d in t er pola t es t h a t u sin g t h e n or m a l dist r ibu t ion m et h od of t h e sin gle ker n el den sit y r ou t in e (see ch a pt er 9). Th e den sit y est im a t es a r e con ver t ed t o pr oba bilit ies so t h a t t h e su m of t h e gr id cells equ a ls 1.0; F or t h e dist r ibu t ion of or igin s ba sed on ly on t h e in ciden t s com m it t ed by t h e ser ia l offen der , fr om t h e or igin -dest in a t ion m a t r ix t h e r ou t in e iden t ifies t h e zon e in wh ich t h e in ciden t s occu r a n d r ea ds on ly t h ose or igin s a ssocia t ed wit h t h ose dest in a t ion zon es. Mu lt iple in ciden t s com m it t ed in t h e sa m e or igin zon e a r e cou n t ed m u lt iple t im es. Th e r ou t in e a dds u p t h e n u m ber of in ciden t s cou n t ed for ea ch zon e a n d u ses t h e sin gle ker n el den sit y r ou t in e t o in t er pola t e t h e dist r ibu t ion t o t h e gr id (see ch a pt er 9). Th e den sit y est im a t es a r e con ver t ed t o pr oba bilit ies so t h a t t h e su m of t h e gr id cells equ a ls 1.0; F or t h e pr odu ct of t h e J t c est im a t e a n d t h e dist r ibu t ion of or igin s ba sed on ly on t h e in ciden t s com m it t ed by t h e ser ia l offen der , t h e r ou t in e m u lt iples t h e pr oba bilit y est im a t e obt a in ed in 1 a bove by t h e pr oba bilit y est im a t e obt a in ed

7.

2.

3.

4.

P r op os ed b y D r . S h a w -p in M ia ou , C olle ge S t a t ion , T X

17

in 3 a bove. Th e pr oba bilit ies a r e t h en r e-sca led so t h a t t h e su m of t h e gr id cells equ a ls 1.0; 5. F or t h e sim ple a ver a ge of t h e J t c est im a t e a n d t h e dist r ibu t ion of or igin s ba sed on ly on t h e in ciden t s com m it t ed by t h e ser ia l offen der , t h e r ou t in e a dds t h e pr oba bilit y est im a t e obt a in ed in 1 t o t h e pr oba bilit y est im a t e obt a in ed in 3 a bove a n d divides by t wo. Th e pr odu ct pr oba bilit ies a r e t h en r e-sca led so t h a t t h e su m of t h e gr id cells equ a ls 1.0; F or t h e fu ll Ba yesia n est im a t e a s in dica t ed in equ a t ion Up.18 a bove, t h e r ou t in e t a k es t h e pr odu ct est im a t e (4 a bove) a n d divides it by t h e gen er a l cr im e dist r ibu t ion est im a t e (2 a bove). Th e r esu lt in g pr oba bilit ies a r e t h en r e-sca led so t h a t t h e su m of t h e gr id cells equ a ls 1.0; a n d F in a lly, for t h e cen t er of m in im u m dist a n ce est im a t e, t h e r ou t in e ca lcu la t es t h e cen t er of m in im u m dist a n ce for ea ch ser ia l offen der in t h e dia gn ost ics file a n d ca lcu la t es t h e dist a n ce bet ween t h is st a t ist ic a n d t h e loca t ion wh er e t h e offen der is a ct u a lly r esidin g. Th is is u sed on ly for t h e dist a n ce er r or com pa r ison s.

6.

7.

Not e in a ll of t h e pr oba bilit y est im a t e (exclu din g 7), t h e cells a r e con ver t ed t o pr oba bilit ies pr ior t o a n y m u lt iplica t ion or division . Th e r esu lt s a r e t h en r e-sca led so t h a t t h e r esu lt in g gr id is a pr oba bilit y (i.e., a ll cells su m t o 1.0). Ou tp u t o f Ro u tin e F or ea ch offen der in t h e dia gn ost ics file, t h e r ou t in e ca lcu la t es t h r ee differ en t st a t ist ics for ea ch of t h e m et h ods: 1. Th e est im a t ed pr oba bilit y in t h e cell wh er e t h e offen der a ct u a lly lives. It does t h is by, fir st , iden t ifyin g t h e gr id cell in wh ich t h e offen der lives (i.e., t h e gr id cell wh er e t h e offen der s r esiden ce X a n d Y coor din a t e is fou n d) a n d, secon d, by n ot in g t h e pr oba bilit y a ssocia t ed wit h t h a t gr id cell; Th e per cen t ile of a ll gr id cells in t h e en t ir e gr id t h a t h a ve t o be sea r ch ed t o fin d t h e cell wh er e t h e offen der lives ba sed on t h e pr oba bilit y est im a t e fr om 1, r a n k ed fr om t h ose wit h t h e h igh est pr oba bilit y t o t h e lowest . Obviou sly, t h is per cen t ile will va r y by h ow la r ge a r efer en ce gr id is u sed (e.g., wit h a ver y la r ge r efer en ce gr id, t h e per cen t ile wh er e t h e offen der a ct u a lly lives will be sm a ll wh er ea s wit h a sm a ll r efer en ce gr id, t h e per cen t ile will be la r ger ). Bu t , sin ce t h e pu r pose is t o com pa r e m et h ods, t h e a ct u a l per cen t a ge sh ou ld be t r ea t ed a s a r ela t ive in dex. Th e r esu lt is sor t ed fr om low t o h igh so t h a t t h e sm a ller t h e per cen t ile, t h e bet t er . F or exa m ple, a per cen t ile of 1% in dica t es t h a t t h e pr oba bilit y est im a t e for t h e cell wh er e t h e offen der lives is wit h in t h e t op 1% of a ll gr id cells. Con ver sely, a per cen t ile of 30% in dica t es

2.

18

t h a t t h e pr oba bilit y est im a t e for t h e cell wh er e t h e offen der lives in wit h in t h e t op 30% of a ll gr id cells; a n d 3. Th e dist a n ce bet ween t h e cell wit h t h e h igh est pr oba bilit y a n d t h e cell wh er e t h e offen der lives.

Ta ble Up.4 illu st r a t es a t ypica l pr oba bilit y ou t pu t for fou r of t h e m et h ods (t h er e a r e t oo m a n y t o displa y in a sin gle t a ble). On ly five ser ia l offen der s a r e sh own in t h e t a ble. Ta ble U p .4: S a m p le Ou tpu t o f P ro ba bility Ma trix
Percentile for P(Jtc) 0.01% 5.68% 0.14% 1.56% 0.04% Percentile for P(O|Jtc) 0.01% 0.12% 0.18% 1.47% 0.03% Percentile Percentile for for P(O) P(O) P(Jtc)*P(O|Jtc) P(Jtc)*P(O|Jtc) 0.000270 11.38% 0.002587 0.01% 0.000377 0.33% 0.000673 0.40% 0.000153 0.000350 0.000266 30.28% 2.37% 11.98% 0.001720 0.000993 0.004286 0.10% 1.37% 0.04%

Offender P(Jtc) 1 0.001169 2 0.000292 3 0.000838 4 0.000611 5 0.001619

P(O|Jtc) 0.000663 0.000483 0.000409 0.000525 0.000943

Ta ble Up.5 illu st r a t es a t ypica l dist a n ce ou t pu t for fou r of t h e m et h ods. On ly five ser ia l offen der s a r e sh own in t h e t a ble. Ta ble U p .5: S a m p le Ou tpu t o f D is tan c e Ma trix
Distance for P(Jtc)*P(O|Jtc) 0.060644 0.840291 0.407762 3.672257 0.423577

Offender Distance(Jtc) 1 0.060644 2 6.406375 3 0.906104 4 3.694369 5 0.423577

Distance(O|Jtc) 0.060644 0.673807 0.407762 3.672257 0.405526

Distance(O) 7.510158 2.23202 11.53447 2.20705 6.772228

Th u s, t h ese t h r ee in dices pr ovide in for m a t ion a bou t t h e a ccu r a cy of t h e m et h od. An idea l m et h od will h a ve a h igh er pr oba bilit y in t h e cell wh er e t h e offen der lives t h a n a n y ot h er cell, will be wit h in a ver y sm a ll per cen t a ge of a ll gr id cells (r a n k ed fr om t h ose wit h t h e h igh est pr oba bilit y t o t h e lowest ), a n d will h a ve a ver y sm a ll dist a n ce bet ween t h e cell wit h t h e h igh est pr oba bilit y a n d t h e cell wh er e t h e offen der a ct u a lly lives.

19

A poor in dica t or , on t h e ot h er h a n d, will ha ve a m u ch lower pr oba bilit y in t h e cell wh er e t h e offen der lives t h a n a n y ot h er cell, will h a ve a h igh per cen t a ge of a ll gr id cells wit h pr oba bilit ies gr ea t er t h a n t h is cell (r a n ked fr om t h ose wit h t h e h igh est pr oba bilit y t o t h e lowest ), a n d will h a ve a la r ge dist a n ce bet ween t h e cell wit h t h e h igh est pr oba bilit y a n d t h e cell wh er e t h e offen der a ct u a lly lives. O u t p u t m a t r i ces Th e dia gn ost ics r ou t in e ou t pu t s t wo sepa r a t e m a t r ices. Th e pr oba bilit y est im a t es (n u m ber s 1 a n d 2 a bove) a r e pr esen t ed in a sepa r a t e m a t r ix fr om t h e dist a n ce est im a t es (n u m ber 3 a bove). Th e u ser ca n sa ve t h e t ot a l ou t pu t a s a t ext file or ca n copy a n d pa st e ea ch of t h e t wo ou t pu t m a t r ices in t o a spr ea dsh eet sepa r a t ely. We r ecom m en d t h e copyin g-a n d-pa st in g m et h od (in t o a spr ea dsh eet ) a s it will be difficu lt t o lin e u p differ in g colu m n widt h s for t h e t wo m a t r ices a n d su m m a r y t a bles a t t h e bot t om of ea ch . S u m m a r y S t a t i st i cs Th e dia gn ost ics r ou t in e will a lso pr ovide su m m a r y in for m a t ion a t t h e bot t om of ea ch m a t r ix. Th er e a r e su m m a r y m ea su r es a n d cou n t s of t h e n u m ber of t im es a m et h od h a d t h e h igh est pr oba bilit y or t h e closest dist a n ce fr om t h e cell wit h t h e h igh est pr oba bilit y t o t h e cell wh er e t h e offen der a ct u a lly lived; t ies bet ween m et h ods a r e cou n t ed a s fr a ct ion s (e.g., t wo t ied m et h ods a r e given 0.5 ea ch ; t h r ee t ied m et h ods a r e give 0.33 ea ch ). F or t h e pr oba bilit y m a t r ix, t h ese st a t ist ics in clu de:

1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9.

Th e m ea n (pr oba bilit y or per cen t ile); Th e m edia n (pr oba bilit y or per cen t ile); Th e st a n da r d devia t ion (pr oba bilit y or per cen t ile); Th e n u m ber of t im es t h e J t c est im a t e pr odu ces t h e h igh est pr obilit y; Th e n u m ber of t im es t h e O| J t c est im a t e pr odu ces t h e h igh est pr oba bilit y; Th e n u m ber of t im es t h e O est im a t e pr odu ces t h e h igh est pr oba bilit y; Th e n u m ber of t im es t h e pr odu ct t er m est im a t e pr odu ces t h e h igh est pr oba bilit y; Th e n u m ber of t im es t h e a ver a ge t er m est im a t e pr odu ces t h e h igh est pr oba bilit y; a n d Th e n u m ber of t im es t h e Ba yesia n est im a t e pr odu ces t h e h igh est pr oba bilit y.

F or t h e dist a n ce m a t r ix, t h ese st a t ist ics in clu de: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Th e Th e Th e Th e Th e Th e m ea n dist a n ce; m edia n dist a n ce; st a n da r d devia t ion dist a n ce; n u m ber of t im es t h e J t c est im a t e pr odu ces t h e closest dist a n ce; n u m ber of t im es t h e O| J t c est im a t e pr odu ces t h e closest dist a n ce; n u m ber of t im es t h e O est im a t e pr odu ces t h e closest dist a n ce;

20

7. 8. 9. 10.

Th e n u m ber dist a n ce; Th e n u m ber dist a n ce; Th e n u m ber and Th e n u m ber dist a n ce.

of t im es t h e pr odu ct t er m est im a t e pr odu ces t h e closest of t im es t h e a ver a ge t er m est im a t e pr odu ces t h e closest of t im es t h e Ba yesia n est im a t e pr odu ces t h e closest dist a n ce; of t im es t h e cen t er of m in im u m dist a n ce pr odu ces t h e closest

Th ese st a t ist ics, especia lly t h e su m m a r y m ea su r es, sh ou ld in dica t e wh ich of t h e m et h ods pr odu ces t h e best a ccu r a cy, defin ed in t er m s of h igh est pr oba bilit y (for t h e pr oba bilit y m a t r ix), closest dist a n ce (for t h e dist a n ce m a t r ix), a n d efficien cy, defin ed in t er m s of t h e sm a llest sea r ch a r ea t o loca t e t h e ser ia l offen der . Wh ic h is th e Mo s t Ac c u ra te J o u rn e y to Crim e Es tim a tio n Me th o d ? To illu st r a t e t h e u se of t h e Ba yesia n J t c dia gn ost ics r ou t in e, t h e r ecor ds of 88 ser ia l offen der s wh o h a d com m it t ed cr im es in Ba lt im or e Cou n t y bet ween 1993 a n d 1997 h a ve been com piled. Th e n u m ber of in ciden t s com m it t ed by t h ese offen der s va r ied fr om 3 t o 33 a n d in clu ded a r a n ge of differ en t cr im e t ypes (la r cen y, bu r gla r y, r obber y, veh icle t h eft , a r son , ba n k r obber y). P r ob a b i l i t y Associ a t ed w i t h Cel l w h er e O ffen d er Li v ed Ta ble Up.6 pr esen t s t h e m ea n , m edia n , a n d st a n da r d devia t ion of t h e va r iou s m et h ods for t h e pr oba bilit y m a t r ix (t h e pr oba bilit y a ssocia t ed wit h t h e cell wh er e t h e offen der lives). Th e pr oba bilit ies a r e sm a ll sin ce t h er e wer e 9000 cells in t h e gr id t h a t wa s u sed for t h e Ba yesia n J t c dia gn ost ics r ou t in e. 3 Of t h e six differ en t pa r a m et er s u sed, t h e pr odu ct t er m , P (J t c)*P (O| J t c), h a d t h e h igh est a ver a ge pr oba bilit y wh ile t h e fu ll Ba yesia n pa r a m et er (wh ich divides t h e pr odu ct t er m by t h e gen er a l pr oba bilit y) h a d t h e secon d h igh est . As m igh t be expect ed, t h e gen er a l pr oba bilit y t er m , P (O), h a d t h e lowest pr oba bilit y sin ce t h is pa r a m et er does n ot con sider a n y of t h e in for m a t ion a ssocia t ed wit h t h e pa r t icu la r ser ia l offen der . Look in g a t t h e m edia n pr oba bilit y, wh ich is t h e va lu e a t wh ich h a lf t h e ca ses h a ve h igh er va lu es a n d h a lf a r e lower , a ga in t h e pr odu ct t er m h a d t h e h igh est pr oba bilit y followed by t h e fu ll Ba yesia n t er m wh ile t h e gen er a l pr oba bilit y h a d t h e lowest . Th u s, in t er m s of est im a t in g t h e loca t ion wh er e t h e offen der a ct u a lly lives, t h e pr odu ct t er m pr odu ced t h e h igh est est im a t e a n d t h e fu ll Ba yesia n t er m t h e secon d h igh est . Th e st a n da r d devia t ion of t h e pr oba bilit y in dica t es t h e va r ia bilit y in t h e est im a t es. E ven t h ou gh t h e pr odu ct t er m pr odu ced t h e best a ver a ge a n d m edia n pr oba bilit y, it a lso h a d t h e h igh est va r ia bilit y. Th a t is, on a ver a ge, t h e pr odu ct t er m is eit h er m u ch m or e

N ot e : t h e gr id is con t r olled b y t h e R e fe r e n ce F ile

21

a ccu r a t e or m u ch less a ccu r a t e t h a n t h e ot h er m et h ods. On t h e ot h er h a n d, t h e gen er a l t er m , P (O), h a s t h e lea st va r ia bilit y even t h ou gh it is t h e lea st a ccu r a t e of t h e pa r a m et er s (i.e., pr ecise, bu t n ot ver y a ccu r a t e). In ot h er wor ds, in t er m s of pr edict in g t h e loca t ion of wh er e t h e offen der a ct u a lly lived, t h e pr odu ct t er m wa s m or e a ccu r a t e, bot h in t er m s of t h e a ver a ge a n d t h e m edia n , t h a n t h e J t c m et h od. Usin g in for m a t ion a bou t t h e loca t ion of ot h er offen der s wh o com m it t ed cr im es in t h e sa m e loca t ion s a s t he ser ia l offen der in a ddit ion t o a n est im a t e ba sed on a n a ssu m ed t r a vel dist a n ce fu n ct ion pr odu ced a m or e a ccu r a t e est im a t e t h a n ju st u sin g t h e in for m a t ion a bou t a n a ssu m ed t r a vel dist a n ce fu n ct ion . Ta ble U p .6:

Me a s u re m e n t P a ra m e te rs fo r th e P ro ba bility fo r th e Ce ll Wh e re th e Offe n d e r Liv e s

Product of Statistic M ean M edian Std. Dev. P(Jtc) 0.00084 0.00082 0.00044 P(O) 0.00025 0.00027 0.00009 P(O|Jtc) 0.00052 0.00051 0.00020 P(Jtc)*P(O|Jtc) 0.00176 0.00166 0.00114 Average of P(Jtc) & P(O|Jtc) 0.00068 0.00067 0.00030 P(Bayesian) 0.00134 0.00119 0.00097

Gr i d P er cen t i l e Associ a t ed w i t h Cel l w h er e O ffen d er Li v ed Sim ila r t o t h e pr oba bilit y wou ld be t h e efficien cy of t h e sea r ch . Th e gr id per cen t ile is t h e per cen t a ge of cells in t h e en t ir e gr id t h a t h a ve pr oba bilit ies h igh er t h a n t h a t a ssocia t ed wit h t h e cell wh er e t h e offen der lives. Th is wou ld in dica t e wh a t per cen t a ge of t h e en t ir e gr id wou ld n eed t o be sea r ch ed in or der t o loca t e t h e cell wh er e t h e offen der a ct u a lly lives (i.e., a sm a ller per cen t ile is bet t er ). Obviou sly, t h e exa ct per cen t a ge will va r y by t h e size of t h e gr id; wit h a la r ge gr id, t h e per cen t iles will gen er a lly be sm a ller t h a n wit h a sm a ller gr id. St ill, a s a r ela t ive in dex, t h e per cen t ile dist r ibu t ion is u sefu l. Ta ble Up.7 pr esen t s t h e m ea n , m edia n , a n d st a n da r d devia t ion of t h e va r iou s m et h ods for t h e gr id per cen t ile dist r ibu t ion . Th e sm a llest per cen t ile wa s obt a in ed wit h t h e a ver a ge t er m , [P (J t c)+P (O| J t c)]/2, wh er e on ly 4.1% of t h e gr id wou ld n eed t o be sea r ch ed t o fin d t h e offen der , wit h t h e secon d lowest per cen t ile bein g t h e pr odu ct t er m , wh er e 4.2% of t h e gr id wou ld n eed t o be sea r ch ed. As wou ld be expect ed, t h e wor st per cen t ile wa s t h e gen er a l est im a t e wh er e 16.7% of t h e gr id wou ld n eed t o be sea r ch ed. Sever a l m ea su r es h a ve a bou t equ a l a ccu r a cy in t er m s of t h e m edia n per cen t ile. Th e J t c est im a t e, P (J t c), t h e pr odu ct t er m , t h e a ver a ge t er m , a n d t h e fu ll Ba yesia n t er m sh ow a low sea r ch per cen t ile for h a lf t h e ca ses. Th a t is, t h ey a r e a bou t equ a l in t er m s of a ccu r a cy for h a lf t h e sa m ple. Look in g a t t h e st a n da r d devia t ion , t h e m et h ods a r e r ela t ively close in t er m s of va r ia bilit y t h ou gh t h e gen er a l t er m is sligh t ly wor se.

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In ot h er wor ds, in t er m s of sea r ch efficien cy, t h e pr odu ct a n d a ver a ge t er m s pr odu ce a m or e efficien t sea r ch t h a n t h e J t c m et h od a n d sh ow less va r ia bilit y a cr oss t h e in dividu a l ca ses. Aga in , u sin g in for m a t ion a bou t t h e loca t ion of ot h er offen der s wh o com m it t ed cr im es in t h e sa m e pla ces in a ddit ion t o a n est im a t e ba sed on a t r a vel dist a n ce fu n ct ion pr odu ces bet t er a ccu r a cy t h a n ju st u sin g a n est im a t e ba sed on a t r a vel dist a n ce fu n ct ion . Ta ble U p .7:

Me a s u re m e n t P a ra m e t e rs o f Grid P e rc e n t ile s fo r t h e Ce ll Wh e re th e Offe n d e r Liv e s

Product of Statistic M ean M edian StdDev P(Jtc) 4.6% 0.1% 13.1% P(O) 16.7% 11.1% 15.5% P(O|Jtc) 4.6% 0.2% 13.0% P(Jtc)*P(O|Jtc) 4.2% 0.1% 12.8%

Average of P(Jtc)& P(O|Jtc) 4.1% 0.1% 12.8% P(Bayesian) 4.6% 0.1% 13.2%

D i st a n ce b et w een Cel l w i t h Hi g h est Li k el i h ood a n d Cel l w h er e O ffen d er Li v ed F in a lly, t h e t h ir d t ype of m ea su r e t o be u sed for com pa r ison is t h e dist a n ce bet ween t h e cell wit h t h e h igh est pr oba bilit y a n d t h e cell wh er e t h e offen der a ct u a lly lived (in m iles). Ta ble Up.8 pr esen t s t h e m ea n , m edia n , a n d st a n da r d devia t ion of t h e va r iou s m et h ods for t h e dist a n ce m a t r ix. In a ddit ion t o t h e six m et h ods, t h e dist a n ce bet ween t h e cen t er of m in im u m dist a n ce (Cm d) a n d t h e cell wh er e t h e offen der lived is in clu ded; ea r lier r esea r ch poin t ed t o t h e cen t er of m in im u m dist a n ce bet ween t h e m ost a ccu r a t e est im a t e of wh er e t h e offen der lived (Levin e, 2004). Con sist en t wit h t h e ea r lier da t a , t h e cen t er of m in im u m did sh ow t h e lowest a ver a ge dist a n ce in pr edict in g t h e loca t ion of t h e ser ia l offen der , 2.62 m iles. H owever , t h e pr odu ct t er m h a d a m ea n a lm ost a s low, 2.64. Aga in , a s wou ld be expect ed, t h e dist a n ce est im a t e for t h e gen er a l m et h od, D(O), h a d t h e gr ea t est a ver a ge dist a n ce. H owever , t h e pr odu ct a n d a ver a ge t er m s sh owed t h e lowest m edia n dist a n ce er r or , even lower t h a n t h e cen t er of m in im u m dist a n ce. Th a t is, in h a lf t h e ca ses, t h e pr odu ct or t h e a ver a ge h a d a lower er r or t h a n a n y ot h er m et h od. Th u s, in t er m s of a n fin din g a ser ia l offen der , eit h er t h e pr odu ct or t h e a ver a ge will be m or e a ccu r a t e t h a n ot h er m et h ods for a bou t h a lf t h e ca ses. Aga in , t h e gen er a l m et h od h a d t h e lea st a ccu r a cy in t er m s of dist a n ce. F in a lly, in t er m s of va r ia bilit y, t h e cen t er of m in im u m dist a n ce h a s t h e lea st wh er ea s t h e fu ll Ba yesia n t er m h a s t h e m ost . Th e pr odu ct t er m est im a t e a n d t h e J t c est im a t e h a d a bou t t h e sa m e a m ou n t of va r ia bilit y.

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In ot h er wor ds, in t er m s of pr edict in g a loca t ion wh ich is closest t o wh er e t h e offen der a ct u a lly lived, t h e cen t er of m in im u m dist a n ce pr odu ced t h e lea st a ver a ge er r or a n d t h e lowest va r ia bilit y of a n y ot h er m et h od. H owever , t h e pr odu ct t er m pr odu ced a n a ver a ge er r or a lm ost a s low a s t h e cen t er of m in im u m dist a n ce bu t a m edia n er r or t h a t wa s t h e lowest . Th e pr odu ct t er m u ses bot h in for m a t ion a bou t t h e or igin s of offen der s wh o com m it t ed cr im es in t h e sa m e loca t ion s a s t h e ser ia l offen der a s well a s a t r a vel dist a n ce fu n ct ion . F in a lly, t h e J t c m et h od, wh ich on ly u ses t h e t r a vel dist a n ce fu n ct ion , is less a ccu r a t e t h a n t h e cen t er of m in im u m dist a n ce, t h e pr odu ct t er m , a n d t h e a ver a ge t er m . Ta ble U p .8: Me a s u re m e n t P a ra m e te rs fo r th e D is ta n c e B e tw e e n th e Ce ll w ith th e P e a k P ro ba bility a n d th e Ce ll Wh e re th e Offe n d e r Liv e s (Miles)
Distance for Statistic M ean M edian Std Dev D(Jtc) 2.78 0.66 4.70 D(O) 8.21 7.34 4.80 D(O|Jtc) 3.12 1.37 4.66 2.64 0.51 4.70 Distance for D(Bayesian 3.23 0.87 4.91 D(Cmd) 2.62 0.79 4.52 2.70 0.51 4.81

P(Jtc)* P(O|Jtc) [P(Jtc) + P(O|Jtc)]/2

In con clu sion , t h e pr odu ct m et h od a ppea r s t o be t h e m ost u sefu l u sin g t h r ee differ en t cr it er ia for a ccu r a cy. Th e Ba yesia n pr odu ct m et h od pr odu ces a n est im a t e t h a t h a s a bou t t h e sa m e a ver a ge er r or in t er m s of dist a n ce a s t h e cen t er of m in im u m dist a n ce (t h e cu r r en t gold st a n da r d for a n est im a t e), bu t pr odu ced less er r or for a bou t h a lf t h e ca ses. It a lso h a s t h e a dva n t a ge over t h e cen t er of m in im u m dist a n ce of pr odu cin g a n est im a t e for t h e cell wh er e t h e offen der lives, wh er e it sh ows t h e h igh est pr oba bilit y of a n y m et h od bot h in t er m s of t h e m ea n a n d t h e m edia n . F in a lly, t h e pr odu ct t er m (a s well a s t h e a ver a ge t er m ) a r e con sist en t ly m or e a ccu r a t e t h a n t h e J t c m et h od. Com bin in g in for m a t ion a bou t t h e or igin s of ot h er offen der s wh o com m it t ed cr im es in t h e sa m e loca t ion s wit h a n est im a t e ba sed on a t r a vel dist a n ce fu n ct ion pr odu ces m or e a ccu r a cy t h a n ju st u sin g t h e t r a vel dist a n ce fu n ct ion . Th e Ba yesia n a ppr oa ch , pa r t icu la r ly t h e pr odu ct t er m (t h e n u m er a t or of t h e fu ll Ba yesia n for m u la ) a ppea r s t o su bst a n t ia lly r edu ce t h e er r or in fin din g a ser ia l offen der over t h e J t c m et h od a n d, even , t h e cen t er of m in im u m dist a n ce (wh ich is ju st a poin t est im a t e). An a n a lysis of t h e in dividu a l ca ses a lso con fir m s t h is. Th e pr odu ct t er m pr odu ced a h igh er pr oba bilit y in 74 of t h e 88 ca ses (cou n t in g t ies). Th e J t c m et h od pr odu ced a h igh er pr oba bilit y in on ly on e ca se, wh ich wa s a bou t t h e sa m e a s t h e con dit ion a l ca se (on e ca se) or t h e gen er a l pr oba bilit y (t wo ca ses). Th e fu ll Ba yesia n t er m pr odu ced t h e h igh est pr oba bilit y in t en ca ses. In t er m s of t h e dist a n ce er r or m ea su r e, t h e cen t er of m in im u m dist a n ce pr odu ced t h e lowest a ver a ge er r or for 30 of t h e 88 ca ses wh ile t h e con dit ion a l t er m (O| J t c) h a d t h e lowest er r or in 17.9 ca ses (in clu din g t ies). Th e pr odu ct t er m pr odu ced a lower a ver a ge dist a n ce er r or

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for 9.5 ca ses (in clu din g t ies) a n d t h e J t c est im a t e pr odu ced lower a ver a ge dist a n ce er r or s in 8.2 ca ses (a ga in , in clu din g t ies). Th e r est wer e spr ea d a cr oss t h e ot h er m et h ods wit h . In ot h er wor ds, u sin g in for m a t ion a bou t t h e or igin loca t ion of ot h er offen der s a ppea r s t o im pr ove t h e a ccu r a cy of t h e J t c m et h od. Th e r esu lt is a n in dex (t h e pr odu ct t er m ) t h a t is a lm ost a s good a s t h e cen t er of m in im u m , bu t on e t h a t is m or e u sefu l sin ce t h e cen t er of m in im u m dist a n ce is on ly a sin gle poin t . Es tim a tin g Ru le Se ts fo r D iffe re n t Ty p e s o f Crim e Th e a bove a n a lysis look ed a t a sin gle in dex over a ll t h e t est ca ses. An a lt er n a t ive a ppr oa ch is t o ca t egor ize t h e ca ses in t o discr et e ca t egor ies a n d t h en det er m in e wh ich m ea su r e pr odu ces t h e gr ea t est a ccu r a cy. Two ca t egor iza t ion va r ia bles wer e exa m in ed. Th e fir st wa s t h e n u m ber of ca ses t h a t ea ch offen der com m it t ed. Un for t u n a t ely, t h is did n ot dem on st r a t e a con sist en t pa t t er n . Th e secon d wa s t h e cr im e t ype, wh ich did sh ow a con sist en t pa t t er n . E a ch of t h e ser ia l offen der wa s ca t egor ized in t o a crim e type, defin ed a s t h e t ype of offen se t h a t t h e offen der m ost ly com m it t ed. F ew offen der s com m it t ed on ly a sin gle t ype of cr im e, bu t t h er e wa s a pr edom in a n t pa t t er n . On e offen der h a d a n equ a l n u m ber of in ciden t s for t wo differ en t t ypes (r obber y, la r cen y); in t h is ca se, t h e cr im e t ype wa s defin ed by t h e m ost ser iou s of t h e cr im es. Th e r esu lt s wer e six cr im e t ype ca t egor ies: La r cen y (45 ca ses); Assa u lt (12 ca ses); Robber y (10 ca ses); Bu r gla r y (9 ca ses); Veh icle t h eft (10 ca ses); a n d ot h er cr im es (2 ca ses). Ta ble Up.9 sh ows t h e a ver a ge pr oba bilit y for ea ch cr im e t ype wit h t h e cell h a vin g t h e h igh est pr oba bilit y bein g boldfa ced for ea ch cr im e t ype. Ta ble U p .9:

Crim e Ty p e Me a s u re m e n t P a ra m e t e rs fo r t h e P ro ba bility fo r th e Ce ll Wh e re th e Offe n d e r Liv e s

Average of Product Crime Type Assault Burglary Larceny Robbery Vehicle theft Other crimes All incidents Cases P(Jtc) 12 0.00090 9 0.00139 45 0.00117 10 0.00088 10 0.00076 2 0.00123 88 0.00084 P(O) 0.00029 0.00018 0.00024 0.00028 0.00026 0.00029 0.00025 P(O|Jtc) P(Jtc) *P(O|Jtc) 0.00063 0.00184 0.00070 0.00060 0.00062 0.00054 0.00069 0.00052 0.00348 0.00259 0.00223 0.00138 0.00280 0.00176 P(Jtc) & P(O|Jtc) 0.00076 0.00104 0.00089 0.00075 0.00065 0.00096 0.00068 P(Bayesian) 0.00142 0.00309 0.00201 0.00180 0.00101 0.00186 0.00134

Th e pr odu ct t er m , P (J t c) * P (O| J t c), h a s t h e h igh est pr oba bilit y of a n y of t h e six m ea su r es, a s well a s h a vin g t h e h igh est pr oba bilit y over a ll 88 ca ses. Th e fu ll Ba yesia n t er m ,

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wh ich divides t h e pr odu ct t er m by t h e gen er a l pr oba bilit y, P (O), h a s t h e secon d h igh est pr oba bilit y. Th u s, a t lea st wit h t h e pr oba bilit ies, t h er e isn t a n y differ en ce in t h e best m et h od for ea ch cr im e t ype. Th e pr odu ct t er m is t h e m ost a ccu r a t e. Not e t h a t J t c est im a t e h a s h igh er pr oba bilit y t h a n t h e ot h er est im a t es wit h t h e except ion of t h e pr odu ct t er m . Aga in , a ddin g in for m a t ion a bou t t h e or igin s of offen der s wh o com m it t ed cr im es in t h e sa m e loca t ion t o t h e J t c est im a t e (wh ich is ba sed on a t r a vel dist a n ce fu n ct ion ) h a s im pr oved t h e over a ll a ccu r a cy. Ta ble Up.10 sh ows t h e a ver a ge per cen t ile of t h e gr id per cen t ile dist r ibu t ion for t h e six differ en t m et h ods over t h e cr im e t ypes. Aga in , t h is per cen t ile is t h e a ver a ge per cen t of a ll gr id cells t h a t h a ve pr oba bilit ies h igh er t h a n t h a t in t h e cell wh er e t h e offen der lived. Sin ce a sm a ller per cen t ile is bet t er , for ea ch cr im e t ype, t h e cell wit h t h e lowest a ver a ge per cen t ile is boldfa ced. Wit h t h is t a ble, t h e differ en t cr im e t ypes sh owed differ en t pa t t er n s. Over a ll, t h e a ver a ge t er m h a d t h e lowest per cen t ile (5.5%) wit h t h e pr odu ct t er m bein g secon d lowest (5.6%). H owever , for t h e a ssa u lt ca ses, t h e fu ll Ba yesia n h a d t h e lowest per cen t ile. F or t h e bu r gla r y ca ses, t h e con dit ion a l pr oba bilit y, P (O| J t c), wa s t h e lowest . F or t h e la r cen y, r obber y, veh icle t h eft , a n d ot h er cr im es, t h e a ver a ge t er m h a d t h e lowest , t h ou gh it wa s t ied wit h t h e pr odu ct t er m a n d wit h t h e con dit ion a l pr oba bilit y for r obber y a n d veh icle t h eft . In ot h er wor ds, over a ll in ciden t s t h e a ver a ge t er m h a d t h e sm a llest sea r ch per cen t ile t h ou gh t h e pr odu ct t er m wa s a lm ost a s efficien t . Not e t h a t bot h t h ese m et h ods a r e m or e efficien t t h a n t h e J t c est im a t e wit h on e except ion (for a ssa u lt ca ses wh er e t h e J t c m et h od h a d a sm a ller per cen t ile t h a n t h e a ver a ge a n d pr odu ct t er m s, t h ou gh n ot t h e fu ll Ba yesia n ). Ta ble Up.11 sh ows, for ea ch cr im e t ype, t h e a ver a ge dist a n ce bet ween t h e cell wit h t h e h igh est pr oba bilit y a n d t h e cell wh er e t h e offen der lived. Sin ce a sm a ller dist a n ce is bet t er , for ea ch cr im e t ype t h e cell wit h t h e lowest a ver a ge dist a n ce is boldfa ced. Ta ble U p .10:

Crim e Ty p e Me a s u re m e n t P a ra m e te rs fo r th e Grid P e rc e n tile fo r th e Ce ll Wh e re th e Offe n d e r Liv e s

Average of Product Crime Type Assault Burglary Larceny Robbery Vehicle theft Other crimes All incidents Cases 12 9 45 10 10 2 88 P(Jtc) 0.3% 0.03% 0.02% 15.1% 0.8% 0.02% 4.6% P(O) 9.0% 27.4% 15.0% 10.2% 13.9% 8.8% 16.7% P(O|Jtc) P(Jtc) *P(O|Jtc) 0.3% 0.03% 0.02% 5.2% 1.0% 0.1% 4.6% 0.3% 0.02% 0.02% 10.4% 0.7% 0.02% 4.2% P(Jtc) & P(O|Jtc) P(Bayesian) 0.3% 0.02% 0.02% 9.7% 0.7% 0.02% 4.1% 0.6% 0.02% 0.02% 15.0% 2.6% 0.1% 4.6%

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Ta ble U p .11:

Cri m e Ty p e Me a s u re m e n t P a ra m e t e rs fo r t h e Dis t an c e B e t w e e n t h e Ce ll w ith th e P e a k P ro ba bility a n d th e Ce ll Wh e re th e Offe n d e r Liv e s

(Miles)
Distance for Crime Type Assault Burglary Larceny Robbery Vehicle theft Other crimes All incidents Cases 12 9 45 10 10 2 88 D(Jtc) 0.29 2.00 3.64 3.54 2.35 0.51 2.78 Distance for [P(Jtc) + D(O) D(O|Jtc) P(Jtc) *P(O|Jtc) P(O|Jtc)]/2 7.94 9.32 8.63 7.92 6.36 5.88 8.21 1.83 3.34 3.96 2.41 1.75 1.38 3.12 0.47 1.65 3.42 3.61 2.14 0.25 2.64 0.30 1.65 3.57 3.64 2.15 0.25 2.70 D(Bayesian) D(Cmd) 0.33 3.01 3.88 3.98 3.05 4.06 3.23 0.23 2.45 3.41 2.92 2.21 0.41 2.62

As m en t ion ed a bove, over a ll t h e cen t er of m in im u m dist a n ce h a d t h e sm a llest a ver a ge dist a n ce bet ween t h e cell wit h t h e h igh est pr oba bilit y a n d t h e cell wh er e t h e offen der lived wit h t h e pr odu ct t er m bein g a lm ost a s low (2.64 m iles v. 2.62 m iles). Th e cen t er of m in im u m dist a n ce h a d t h e lea st a ver a ge dist a n ce for t h e a ssa u lt ca ses a n d for t h e la r cen y ca ses, t h ou gh wit h t h e la t t er cr im e t h e pr odu ct t er m wa s a lm ost a s low. F or t h e bu r gla r y ca ses, t h e a ver a ge a n d pr odu ct t er m s h a d a lower a ver a ge dist a n ce er r or , m u ch lower t h a n t h e cen t er of m in im u m dist a n ce. F or t h e r obber y a n d veh icle t h eft ca ses, t h e con dit ion a l pr oba bilit y, D(O| J t c), h a d t h e sm a llest a ver a ge dist a n ce er r or . If t h ese cr im e t ype r u les a r e u sed t o select wh ich m et h od is t o be a pplied for ea ch ca se, t h en t h e a ver a ge dist a n ce er r or wou ld be r edu ced t o 2.42 m iles, com pa r ed t o 2.62 m iles for t h e cen t er of m in im u m dist a n ce. In ot h er wor ds, som e efficien cy in t h e sea r ch a r ea wou ld be obt a in ed by select in g m et h ods for differ en t cr im e t ypes, a t lea st in Ba lt im or e Cou n t y. F igu r e Up.3 illu st r a t es t h e differ en ces in t h e sea r ch a r ea s of t h e J t c (J t c), Ba yesia n pr odu ct , cen t er of m in im u m dist a n ce (Cm d), a n d m in im u m cr im e t ype m et h ods by con st r u ct in g cir cles wit h r a dii equ a l t o t h e a ver a ge er r or dist a n ce. Com pa r ed t o t h e J t c m et h od, t h e Ba yesia n pr odu ct est im a t e h a d a sea r ch a r ea t h a t is 9.8% sm a ller wh ile t h e Cm d h a d a sea r ch a r ea t h a t is 11.6% sm a ller . H owever , t h e m in im u m cr im e t ype m et h od h a d a sea r ch a r ea t h a t is 24.3% sm a ller . Th u s, in t er m s of efficien cy, t h e m in im u m cr im e t ype r edu ced t h e sea r ch a r ea by a lm ost a qu a r t er . Th er e is st ill con sider a ble er r or in t er m s of iden t ifyin g wh er e t h e offen der lives, bu t t h e Ba yesia n m et h od h a s r edu ced t h e sea r ch a r ea wh ile a cr im e t ype r u le set h a s r edu ced it even m or e. Of cou r se, t h is a n a lysis is ba sed on sm a ll sa m ple sizes for m ost of t h e ca t egor ies. It r em a in s t o be seen wh et h er t h ese r esu lt s h old u p in su bsequ en t st u dies. Never t h eless, it does su ggest t h a t a m or e efficien t sea r ch m igh t be pr odu ced by select in g a n a ppr opr ia t e m et h od for ea ch cr im e t ype.

27

Figure Up.3:

Co n c lu s io n o f th e Ev a lu a tio n Th e r esu lt s of t h ese com pa r ison su ggest t h a t t h e pr odu ct t er m is pr oba bly t h e m ost u sefu l of a ll t h e m ea su r es, a t lea st wit h t h ese da t a fr om Ba lt im or e Cou n t y. F or a sin gle gu ess of wh er e a ser ia l offen der is livin g, t h e cen t er of m in im u m dist a n ce pr odu ced t h e lowest dist a n ce er r or . Bu t , sin ce it is on ly a poin t est im a t e, it ca n n ot poin t t o a sea r ch a r ea wh er e t h e offen der m igh t be livin g. Th e pr odu ct t er m , on t h e ot h er h a n d, pr odu ced a n a ver a ge dist a n ce er r or a lm ost a s sm a ll a s t h e cen t er of m in im u m dist a n ce, bu t it pr odu ced est im a t es for ot h er gr id cells t oo. Am on g a ll t h e J ou r n ey t o Cr im e m ea su r es, it h a d t h e h igh est pr oba bilit y in t h e cell wh er e t h e offen der lived a n d wa s a m on g t h e m ost efficien t in t er m s of r edu cin g t h e sea r ch a r ea . Th e a ver a ge t er m wa s a lm ost a s good, bu t wa s less r elia ble t h a n t h e pr odu ct t er m . Of cou r se, ea ch ju r isdict ion sh ou ld r e-r u n t h ese dia gn ost ics t o det er m in e t h e m ost a ppr opr ia t e m ea su r e. It is ver y possible t h a t ju r isdict ion s will h a ve differ en t r esu lt s du e t o t h e u n iqu en ess of t h eir la n d u ses, st r eet la you t , a n d loca t ion in r ela t ion t o t h e cen t er of t h e m et r opolit a n a r ea . Ba lt im or e Cou n t y is a su bu r b a n d t h e con clu sion s in a cen t r a l cit y or in a r u r a l a r ea m igh t be differ en t . 4 Es tim a te Lik e ly Orig in Lo c a tio n o f a S e ria l Offe n d e r Th e followin g a pplies t o t h e Ba yesia n J t c E st im a t e lik ely or igin of a ser ia l offen der r ou t in e. On ce t h e dia gn ost ic r ou t in e h a s been r u n a n d a pr efer r ed m et h od select ed, t h e n ext r ou t in e a llows t h e a pplica t ion of t h a t m et h od t o a sin gle ser ia l offen der . D a ta In p u t Th e u ser in pu t s t h e t h r ee r equ ir ed da t a set s a n d a r efer en ce file gr id: 1. Th e in ciden t s com m it t ed by a sin gle offen der t h a t wer e in t er est ed in ca t ch in g. Th is m u st be t h e P r im a r y F ile; A J t c fu n ct ion t h a t est im a t es t h e lik elih ood of a n offen der com m it t in g cr im es a t a cer t a in dist a n ce (or t r a vel t im e if a n et wor k is u sed); An or igin -dest in a t ion m a t r ix; a n d Th e r efer en ce file a lso n eeds t o be defin ed a n d sh ou ld in clu de a ll loca t ion s wh er e cr im es h a ve been com m it t ed (see Refer en ce F ile).

2.

3. 4.

D ick B lock of L oy ola U n ive r s it y of C h ica go h a s r e p lica t e d t h e s e r e s u lt s w it h d a t a on 1 0 3 s e r ia l offe n d e r s w h o com m it t e d r ob b e r ies in C h ica go. H e fou n d t h a t t h e B a ye s ia n p r od u ct es t im a t e p r od u ced t h e h ig h e s t p r ob a b ilit ie s , t h e s m a lle s t s e a r ch a r e a , a n d t h e s m a lle s t d is t a n ce b e t w e e n t h e ce ll w it h t h e h ig h e s t p r ob a b ilit y a n d t h e ce ll w h e r e t h e offe n d e r a ct u a lly liv e d . H e a ls o fou n d t h a t t h e B a ye s ia n p r od u ct es t im a t e w a s s lig h t ly m or e a ccu r a t e t h a n t h e ce n t e r of m in im u m d is t a n ce .

29

Me th o d s Te s te d Th e Ba yesia n J t c E st im a t e r ou t in e in t er pola t es t h e in ciden t s com m it t ed by t h e ser ia l offen der t o a gr id, a llowin g t h e u ser t o est im a t e wh er e t h e offen der is lia ble t o live. Th er e a r e six differ en t m et h ods for est im a t in g t h e likely loca t ion of a ser ia l offen der t h a t ca n be u sed. H owever , t h e u ser h a s t o ch oose on e of t h ese: 1. 2. Th e J t c dist a n ce m et h od, P (J t c); Th e gen er a l cr im e dist r ibu t ion ba sed on t h e or igin -dest in a t ion m a t r ix, P (O). E ssen t ia lly, t h is is t h e dist r ibu t ion of or igin s ir r espect ive of t h e dest in a t ion s; Th e dist r ibu t ion of or igin s ba sed on ly on t h e in ciden t s com m it t ed by t h e ser ia l offen der , P (O| J t c); Th e pr odu ct of t h e J t c est im a t e (1 a bove) a n d t h e dist r ibu t ion of or igin s ba sed on ly on t h e in ciden t s com m it t ed by t h e ser ia l offen der (3 a bove), P (J t c)*P (O| J t c). Th is is t h e n u m er a t or of t h e Ba yesia n fu n ct ion (equ a t ion Up.18), t h e pr odu ct of t h e pr ior pr oba bilit y t im es t h e lik elih ood est im a t e; Th e weigh t ed a ver a ge of t h e J t c est im a t e (1 a bove) a n d t h e dist r ibu t ion of or igin s ba sed on ly on t h e dist r ibu t ion of in ciden t s com m it t ed by t h e ser ia l offen der (3 a bove), P (J t c) + P (O| J t c). Th is is a n a lt er n a t ive t o t h e pr odu ct t er m (4 a bove). Th e u ser m u st select weigh t s for ea ch of t h e est im a t es su ch t h a t t h e su m of t h e weigh t s equ a ls 1.0. Th e defa u lt weigh t s a r e 0.5 for ea ch est im a t e; a n d Th e fu ll Ba yesia n est im a t e a s in dica t ed in equ a t ion Up.18 a bove (m et h od 4 a bove divided by m et h od 2 a bove), P (Ba yesia n ). In te rp o la te d Grid F or t h e m et h od t h a t is select ed, t h e r ou t in e over la ys a gr id on t h e st u dy a r ea . Th e gr id is defin ed by t h e r efer en ce file pa r a m et er s (see ch a pt er 3). Th e r ou t in e t h en in t er pola t es t h e in pu t da t a set (t h e pr im a r y file) in t o a pr oba bilit y est im a t e for ea ch gr id cell wit h t h e su m of t h e cells equ a lin g 1.0 (wit h in t h r ee decim a l pla ces). Th e m a n n er in wh ich t h e in t er pola t ion is don e va r ies by t h e m et h od ch osen : 1. F or t h e J t c m et h od, P (J t c), t h e r ou t in e in t er pola t es t h e select ed dist a n ce fu n ct ion t o ea ch gr id cell t o pr odu ce a den sit y est im a t e. Th e den sit y est im a t es a r e con ver t ed t o pr oba bilit ies so t h a t t h e su m of t h e gr id cells equ a ls 1.0 (see ch a pt er 10); F or t h e gen er a l cr im e dist r ibu t ion m et h od, P (O), t h e r ou t in e su m s u p t h e in ciden t s by ea ch or igin zon e a n d in t er pola t es t h is t o t h e gr id u sin g t h e n or m a l dist r ibu t ion m et h od of t h e sin gle ker n el den sit y r ou t in e (see ch a pt er 9). Th e

3.

4.

5.

6.

2.

30

den sit y est im a t es a r e con ver t ed t o pr oba bilit ies so t h a t t h e su m of t h e gr id cells equ a ls 1.0; 3. F or t h e dist r ibu t ion of or igin s ba sed on ly on t h e in ciden t com m it t ed by t h e ser ia l offen der , t h e r ou t in e iden t ifies t h e zon e in wh ich t h e in ciden t occu r s a n d r ea ds on ly t h ose or igin s a ssocia t ed wit h t h ose dest in a t ion zon es in t h e or igin -dest in a t ion m a t r ix. Mu lt iple in ciden t s com m it t ed in t h e sa m e or igin zon e a r e cou n t ed m u lt iple t im es. Th e r ou t in e t h en u ses t h e sin gle ker n el den sit y r ou t in e t o in t er pola t e t h e dist r ibu t ion t o t h e gr id (see ch a pt er 9). Th e den sit y est im a t es a r e con ver t ed t o pr oba bilit ies so t h a t t h e su m of t h e gr id cells equ a ls 1.0; F or t h e pr odu ct of t h e J t c est im a t e a n d t h e dist r ibu t ion of or igin s ba sed on ly on t h e in ciden t s com m it t ed by t h e ser ia l offen der , t h e r ou t in e m u lt iples t h e pr oba bilit y est im a t e obt a in ed in 1 a bove by t h e pr oba bilit y est im a t e obt a in ed in 3 a bove. Th e pr odu ct pr oba bilit ies a r e t h en r e-sca led so t h a t t h e su m of t h e gr id cells equ a ls 1.0; F or t h e a ver a ge of t h e J t c est im a t e a n d t h e dist r ibu t ion of or igin s ba sed on ly on t h e in ciden t s com m it t ed by t h e ser ia l offen der , t h e r ou t in e a dds t h e pr oba bilit y est im a t e obt a in ed in 1 a bove by t h e pr oba bilit y est im a t e obt a in ed in 3 a bove. Th e su m den sit y est im a t es a r e con ver t ed t o pr oba bilit ies so t h a t t h e su m of t h e gr id cells equ a ls 1.0; a n d F or t h e fu ll Ba yesia n est im a t e a s in dica t ed in equ a t ion Up.18 a bove, t h e r ou t in e t a k es t h e pr odu ct est im a t e (4 a bove) a n d divides it by t h e gen er a l cr im e dist r ibu t ion est im a t e (2 a bove). Th e r esu lt in g den sit y est im a t es a r e con ver t ed t o pr oba bilit ies so t h a t t h e su m of t h e gr id cells equ a ls 1.0.

4.

5.

6.

Not e in a ll est im a t es, t h e cells a r e con ver t ed t o pr oba bilit ies pr ior t o a n y m u lt iplica t ion or division . Th e r esu lt s a r e t h en r e-sca led so t h a t t h e r esu lt in g gr id is a pr oba bilit y (i.e., a ll cells su m t o 1.0). Ou tp u t o f Ro u tin e On ce t h e m et h od h a s been select ed, t h e r ou t in e in t er pola t es t h e da t a t o t h e gr id cell a n d ou t pu t s it a s a sh p, m if/m id, or Ascii file for displa y in a GIS pr ogr a m . Th e t a bu la r ou t pu t sh ows t h e pr oba bilit y va lu es for ea ch cell in t h e m a t r ix a n d a lso in dica t es wh ich gr id cell h a s t h e h igh est pr oba bilit y est im a t e. Ac c u m u la tor Ma trix Th er e is a lso a n in t er m edia t e ou t pu t , ca lled t h e accu m u lator m atrix , wh ich t h e u ser ca n sa ve. Th is list s t h e n u m ber of or igin s iden t ified in ea ch or igin zon e for t h e specific pa t t er n of in ciden t s com m it t ed by t h e offen der , pr ior t o t h e in t er pola t ion t o gr id cells. Th a t is, in r ea din g t h e or igin -dest in a t ion file, t h e r ou t in e fir st iden t ifies wh ich zon e ea ch in ciden t com m it t ed by t h e offen der fa lls wit h in . Secon d, it r ea ds t h e or igin -dest in a t ion m a t r ix a n d iden t ifies wh ich or igin

31

zon es a r e a ssocia t ed wit h in ciden t s com m it t ed in t h e pa r t icu la r dest in a t ion zon es. F in a lly, it su m s u p t h e n u m ber of or igin s by zon e ID a ssocia t ed wit h t h e in ciden t dist r ibu t ion of t h e offen der . Th is ca n be u sefu l for exa m in in g t h e dist r ibu t ion of or igin s by zon es pr ior t o in t er pola t in g t h ese t o t h e gr id. Ex a m p le o f th e B a y e s ia n J o u rn e y to Crim e Ro u tin e As a n exa m ple, let s illu st r a t e t h e r ou t in es wit h t wo differ en t ser ia l offen der s. F ir st , let s look a t t h e gen er a l ou t pu t , wh ich will be t r u e for a n y ser ia l offen der . F igu r e Up.4 pr esen t s t h e pr oba bilit y ou t pu t for t h e gen er a l or igin m odel, t h a t is for t h e or igin s of a ll offen der s ir r espect ive of wh er e t h ey com m it t h eir cr im es. It is a pr oba bilit y su r fa ce in t h a t a ll t h e gr id cells su m t o 1.0. Th e m a p is sca led so t h a t ea ch bin cover s a pr oba bilit y of 0.0001. Th e cell wit h t h e h igh est pr oba bilit y is h igh ligh t ed in ligh t blu e. As seen , t h e dist r ibu t ion is h ea vily weigh t ed t owa r ds t h e cen t er of t h e m et r opolit a n a r ea , pa r t icu la r ly in t h e Cit y of Ba lt im or e. F or t h e cr im es com m it t ed in Ba lt im or e Cou n t y bet ween 1993 a n d 1997 in wh ich bot h t h e cr im e loca t ion a n d t h e r esiden ce loca t ion wa s kn own , a bou t 40% of t h e offen der s r esided wit h in t h e Cit y of Ba lt im or e a n d t h e bu lk of t h ose livin g wit h in Ba lt im or e Cou n t y lived close t o t h e bor der wit h Cit y. In ot h er wor ds, a s a gen er a l con dit ion , m ost offen der s in Ba lt im or e Cou n t y live r ela t ively close t o t h e cen t er . Th e gen er a l pr oba bilit y ou t pu t does n ot t a k e in t o con sider a t ion a n y in for m a t ion a bou t t h e pa r t icu la r pa t t er n of a n offen der . Th er efor e, let s look specifica lly a t a pa r t icu la r offen der . F igu r e Up.5 pr esen t s t h e dist r ibu t ion of a n offen der wh o com m it t ed 14 offen ses bet ween 1993 a n d 1997 befor e bein g ca u gh t a n d t h e r esiden ce loca t ion wh er e t h e in dividu a l lived wh en a r r est ed. Of t h e 14 offen ses, seven wer e t h eft s (la r cen y), fou r wer e a ssa u lt s, t wo wer e r obber ies, a n d on e wa s a bu r gla r y. As seen , t h e in ciden t s a ll occu r r ed in t h e sou t h ea st cor n er of Ba lt im or e Cou n t y in a fa ir ly con cen t r a t ed pa t t er n t h ou gh t wo of t h e in ciden t s wer e com m it t ed m or e t h a n five m iles a wa y fr om t h e offen der s r esiden ce. Th e gen er a l pr oba bilit y m odel is n ot ver y pr ecise sin ce it a ssign s t h e sa m e loca t ion t o a ll offen der s. In t h e ca se of offen der S14A, t h e dist a n ce er r or bet ween t h e cell wit h t h e h igh est pr oba bilit y a n d t h e cell wh er e t h e offen der a ct u a lly lived is 7.4 m iles. On t h e ot h er h a n d, t h e J t c m et h od u ses t h e dist r ibu t ion of t h e in ciden t s com m it t ed by a pa r t icu la r offen der a n d a m odel of a t ypica l t r a vel dist a n ce dist r ibu t ion t o est im a t e t h e lik ely or igin of t h e offen der s r esiden ce. F igu r e Up.6 sh ows t h e r esu lt s of t h e J t c pr oba bilit y ou t pu t . Th e cell wit h t h e h igh est lik elih ood is h igh ligh t ed in ligh t blu e. As seen , t h is cell is ver y close t o t h e cell wh er e t h e a ct u a l offen der lived. Th e dist a n ce bet ween t h e t wo cells wa s 0.34 m iles. Wit h t h e J t c pr oba bilit y est im a t e, h owever , t h e a r ea wit h a h igh er pr oba bilit y (da r k r ed) cover s a fa ir ly la r ge a r ea in dica t in g t h e r ela t ive la ck of pr ecision of t h is m et h od. Of t h e 9,000 cells in t h e gr id, t h e h igh est pr oba bilit y bin (0.0004 or h igh er ) cover s 802 gr id cells, or 8.9% of t h e st u dy a r ea . Never t h eless, t h e J t c est im a t e h a s pr odu ced a ver y good est im a t e of t h e loca t ion of t h e offen der , a s m igh t be expect ed given t h e con cen t r a t ion of t h e in ciden t s com m it t ed by t h is per son .

32

Figure Up.4:

Figure Up.5:

Figure Up.6:

F or t h is sa m e offen der , F igu r e Up.7 sh ows t h e r esu lt s of t h e con dit ion a l pr oba bilit y of t h e offen der s r esiden ce loca t ion , t h a t is t h e dist r ibu t ion of t h e lik ely or igin ba sed on t h e or igin s of offen der s wh o com m it t ed cr im es in t h e sa m e loca t ion s a s t h e S14A. Aga in , t h e m a p is displa yed wit h bin s t h a t cover a pr oba bilit y r a n ge of 0.0001 a n d t h e cell wit h t h e h igh est pr oba bilit y is h igh ligh t ed (in ligh t gr een ). As seen , t h is m et h od h a s a lso pr odu ced a fa ir ly close est im a t e, wit h t h e dist a n ce bet ween t h e cell wit h t h e h igh est pr oba bilit y a n d t h e cell wh er e t h e offen der a ct u a lly lived bein g 0.18 m iles, a bou t h a lf t h e er r or dist a n ce of t h e J t c m et h od. F u r t h er , t h e a r ea wit h t h e h igh est pr oba bilit y (0.0004 or h igh er ) cover s on ly 508 of t h e 9000 gr id cells, or 5.6% of t h e st u dy a r ea . Th u s, t h e con dit ion a l pr oba bilit y est im a t e is n ot on ly m or e a ccu r a t e t h a n t h e J t c m et h od, bu t a lso m or e pr ecise (i.e., m or e efficien t in t er m s of sea r ch a r ea ). F or t h is sa m e offen der , figu r e Up.8 sh ows t h e r esu lt s of t h e Ba yesia n pr odu ct est im a t e, t h e pr odu ct of t h e J t c pr oba bilit y a n d t h e con dit ion a l pr oba bilit y r e-sca led t o be a sin gle pr oba bilit y (i.e., wit h t h e su m of t h e gr id cells equ a l t o 1.0). It is a Ba yesia n est im a t e beca u se it u pda t es t h e J t c pr oba bilit y est im a t e wit h t h e in for m a t ion on t h e lik ely or igin s of offen der s wh o com m it t ed cr im es in t h e sa m e loca t ion s (t h e con dit ion a l est im a t e). Aga in , t h e m a p bin sizes cover a pr oba bilit y r a n ge of 0.0001 a n d t h e cell wit h t h e h igh est pr oba bilit y is h igh ligh t ed (in da r k t a n ). Th e dist a n ce er r or for t h is m et h od is 0.26 m iles, n ot a s pr ecise a s t h e con dit ion a l pr oba bilit y est im a t e bu t m or e pr ecise t h a n t h e J t c est im a t e. F u r t h er , t h is m et h od is less pr ecise t h a n t h e pr eviou s t h r ee m et h ods a s 936 of t h e 9000 cells, or 10.4% of t h e st u dy a r ea , h a ve pr oba bilit ies h igh er t h a n t h e cell wh er e t h e offen der lived. In gen er a l, t h e pr odu ct est im a t e is sligh t ly m or e pr ecise, on a ver a ge, t h a n t h e J t c a n d con dit ion a l pr oba bilit y m et h ods. Bu t , in t h is ca se, it is n ot . F igu r e Up.9 sh ows t h e r esu lt of t h e weigh t ed a ver a ge pr oba bilit y est im a t e. Th is is t h e a ver a ge of t h e J t c pr oba bilit y a n d con dit ion a l pr oba bilit y; in t h is ca se, t h e weigh t s for bot h est im a t es wer e equ a l (0.5). Aga in , t h e m a p bin s r epr esen t pr oba bilit y r a n ges of 0.0001 a n d t h e cell wit h t h e h igh est lik elih ood is h igh ligh t ed (in da r k pu r ple). Th e er r or dist a n ce bet ween t h e cell wit h t h e h igh est pr oba bilit y a n d t h e cell wh er e t h e offen der a ct u a lly lived wa s 0.26 m iles, t h e sa m e a s wit h t h e pr odu ct est im a t e. In t h is ca se, t h e weigh t ed a ver a ge est im a t e wa s m or e pr ecise t h a n t h e pr odu ct est im a t e wit h t h e n u m ber of cells h a vin g pr oba bilit ies h igh er t h a n t h e cell wh er e t h e offen der lived bein g 638 ou t of 9000 cells, or 7.1% of t h e st u dy a r ea . It is n ot a s pr ecise a s t h e con dit ion a l pr oba bilit y h owever . F igu r e Up.10 sh ows t h e r esu lt s of t h e fu ll Ba yesia n pr oba bilit y est im a t e. Th is m et h od t a k es t h e Ba yesia n pr odu ct est im a t e a n d divides it by t h e gen er a l or igin pr oba bilit y est im a t e. It is a n a logou s t o a risk m ea su r e t h a t r ela t es t h e n u m ber of even t s t o a ba selin e popu la t ion . In t h is ca se, it is t h e est im a t e of t h e pr oba bilit y of t h e u pda t ed J t c est im a t e r ela t ive t o t h e pr oba bilit y of wh er e offen der s live in gen er a l. Aga in , t h e m a p bin s r epr esen t pr oba bilit y r a n ges of 0.0001 a n d t h e cell wit h t h e h igh est likelih ood is h igh ligh t ed (in da r k yellow).

36

Figure Up.7:

Figure Up.8:

Figure Up.9:

Figure Up.10:

Figure Up.11:

Th e fu ll Ba yesia n est im a t e pr odu ces a n er r or of 0.34 m iles, t h e sa m e a s t h e J t c est im a t e. H owever , it is less pr ecise t h a n a n y of t h e ot h er m et h ods a s t h er e a r e 1005 ou t of t h e 9000 gr id cells, or 11.2% of t h e st u dy a r ea , with higher probabilities. Finally, the center of minimum distance (Cmd) is indicated on each of the maps with a grey cross. In this case, the Cmd is not as accurate as any of the other methods since it has an error distance of 0.58 miles. In summary, all of the Journey to Crime estimate methods produce relatively accurate estimates of the location of the offender (S14A). Given that the incidents committed by this person were within a fairly concentrated pattern, it is not surprising that each of the methods produces reasonable accuracy. But what happens if we take an offender who did not commit crimes in the same part of town? Figure Up.11 shows the distribution of an offender who committed 15 offenses (TS15A). Of the 15 offenses committed by this individual, there were six larceny thefts, two assaults, two vehicle thefts, one robbery, one burglary, and three incidents of arson. While the distribution of 13 of the offenses are within about a three mile radius, two of the incidents are more than eight miles away. Only three of the Journey to Crime estimates will be shown. The general method produces an error of 4.6 miles. Figure Up.12 shows the results of the Jtc method. Again, the maps bins are in ranges of 0.0001 and the cell with the highest probability is highlighted. As seen, the cell with the highest probability is located north and west of the actual offenders residence. The distance error is 1.89 miles. Figure Up.13 shows the result of the conditional probability estimate for this offender. Again, the mapping bins represent probability ranges of 0.0001 and the cell with the highest probability is highlighted. In this case, the conditional probability method is less accurate than the Jtc method with a distance between the cell with the highest probability and the cell where the offender lived being 2.39 miles. However, this method is also more precise than the Jtc method with 305 or the 9000 grid cells, or 3.4% of the study area, having probabilities higher than that in the cell where the offender lived. Finally, figure Up.14 shows the results of the product probability estimate. Again, the mapping bins represent probability ranges of 0.0001 and the cell with the highest probability is highlighted. For this method, the error distance is only 0.47 miles, much less than the Jtc method. Further, it is smaller than the center of minimum distance which has a distance error of 1.32 miles. Again, updating the Jtc estimate with information from the conditional estimate produces a more accurate guess where the offender lives. However, as with the previous example, the product estimate does this with less precision since 852 of the 9000 grid cells, or 9.5% of the study area, have probability levels higher than that in the cell where the offender lived. As mentioned above, over all the 88 cases tested, the product estimate product the smallest search area of any of the Journey to Crime methods. However, in this case as well, it is less precise than the Jtc method.

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Figure Up.12:

Figure Up.13:

Figure Up.14:

The Estimate likely origin of a serial offender routine allows the estimation of a probability grid based on a single selected method. The user must decide which probability method to select and the routine then calculates that estimate and assigns it to a grid. As mentioned above, the diagnostics routine should be first run to decide on which method is most appropriate. In these 88 cases, the Bayesian product estimate was the most accurate of all the probability methods. But, we dont really know whether it will be the most accurate for other jurisdictions. Differences in the balance between central-city and suburbs, the road network, and land uses may change the travel patterns of offenders. Utility of the Bayesian Journey to Crime Estimation Method Nevertheless, the Bayesian approach to Journey to Crime estimation does appear to improve the accuracy of the method by integrating information based on the origins of offenders who committed crimes in similar locations to that of the serial offender of interest. Using two sources of information improves both the accuracy of the best guess (the cell with the highest probability) as well as the efficiency of the search. When this is combined with differentiating serial offenders by their predominant crime, then even more accuracy will be obtained with the method. In short, the Bayesian Jtc methodology is an improvement over the current methods and appears to be as good, and more useful, than the center of minimum distance. A caveat should be noted, however, in that the Bayesian method still has a substantial amount of error. The average distance error of even the best approach, which uses different methods for different types of crimes, was still 2.4 miles with an implied search area of over 18 square miles. Much of this error reflects, I believe, the inherent mobility of offenders, especially those living in a suburb such as in Baltimore County. While adolescent offenders tend to commit crimes within a more circumscribed area, the ability of an adult to own an automobile and to travel outside the residential neighborhood is turning crime into a much more mobile phenomena than it was, say, 50 years ago when only about half of American households owned an automobile. Thus, the Bayesian approach to Journey to Crime estimation must be seen as a tool which produces an incremental improvement in accuracy and precision. Geographic profiling is but one tool in the arsenal of methods that police must use to catch serial offenders.

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References Canter, David (2003). Dragnet: A Geographical Prioritisation Package. Center for Investigative Psychology, Department of Psychology, The University of Liverpool: Liverpool, UK. http://www.i-psy.com/publications/publications_dragnet.php. Canter, D. and A. Gregory (1994). Identifying the residential location of rapists, Journal of the Forensic Science Society, 34 (3), 169-175. Levine, Ned (2004). Journey to crime Estimation. Chapter 10 of Ned Levine (ed), CrimeStat III: A Spatial Statistics Program for the Analysis of Crime Incident Locations (version 3.0). Ned Levine & Associates, Houston, TX.; National Institute of Justice, Washington, DC. November. http://www.icpsr.umich.edu/crimestat. Originally published August 2000. Rossmo, D. Kim (2000). Geographic Profiling. CRC Press: Boca Raton Fl. Rossmo, D. Kim (1995). Overview: multivariate spatial profiles as a tool in crime investigation. In Carolyn Rebecca Block, Margaret Dabdoub and Suzanne Fregly, Crime Analysis Through Computer Mapping. Police Executive Research Forum: Washington, DC. 65-97. Wikipedia (2007a). Geometric mean http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geometric_mean and Weighted geometric mean http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weighted_geometric_mean. Wikipedia (2007b). Harmonic mean http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harmonic_mean and Weighted harmonic mean http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weighted_harmonic_mean.

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