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Global Global

Strategy Challenges
Executable
Solutions

2020:

france.houdard@exolus.com
March 2011
2011 Exolus.

:
?

2011 Exolus.

: . . .

2011 Exolus.

80%

A-
S-

45%

2011 Exolus.

:
5%
GDP (PPP )
(, )

3.0

(2016)

(2014)

IMF

2.5

2.0

1.5

2x

2011 Exolus.

2015 f

2014 f

2013 f

2012 f

2011 f

2010 f

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1.0

: GDP
GDP:

5,700 (2009)

8,800 (2020)
2020
2009

GDP

$10,000

$8,000

$6,000

$4,000

$2,000

$0

2011 Exolus.

: ERSUSDA 5

:
6%

(/)

80,000

70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
2000

2011 Exolus.

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

2035

2040

2045

2050

(13% , 2009)

13 %

(17 % , 2009)

17%

2011 Exolus.

: US Geological Survey 7

(33% , 2009)

33 %

(7.1% , 2003)

7.1%

2011 Exolus.

: Renewable Fuels Association 8

(26% , 2008)

26%

Brazil

(36% , 2008)

Vietnam

Colombia

Indonesia

36%

Peru

Ethiopia

Mexico

India

Guatemala

Uganda

Honduras

Costa
Rica

Phillipines

2011 Exolus.

: ,

2020: - GDP, ,
> 3 GDP

1+

> 3

2011 Exolus.

3 GDP (PPP)

10

2011 Exolus.

11

:
/

IT

HR

/
/

2011 Exolus.

12

1. : /

(1000/)

(1000/)

700

250

600
200
500
150

400

300

100

200
50
100

2011 Exolus.

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2050

2002

2040

2001

2030

2000

2020

1995

2010

1990

: , 13

1. : 2015
470 2015

(20002015f )

2000 8

2005 8

2010 8

2015F 5

1,500

2,620

4,410

5,240

580

650

750

1,030

170

240

480

850

170

210

390

550

110

160

340

470

110

150

320

440

68

130

280

360

67

100

240

310

63

100

220

300

62

98

210

280

2011 Exolus.

: IMF; , Assessment of Opportunity for Pharmaceutical Manufacturers in Emerging Markets JMCP; Monitor
Analysis; Exolus 14

1.:
28%

900
800
700

600
500

400
300
200
100

2003

2011 Exolus.

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

: , Planet Retail 15

2./:
()
GDP
(, PPP-)

A/S

()

GDP/A/S-

> 14,500
10,000 14,500

7,500 - 10,000

5,500 -7,500
0 5,500

A-

S-

2011 Exolus.

16

2./: ?

OEMs

Suppliers

OEMs

Suppliers

OEMs

OEMs

Suppliers

Suppliers

2011 Exolus.

17

2./:
(248,209 ) (243,610 )

()

()

(248,209 )

(243,610 )

2011 Exolus.

18

2./:
,

(248,209 )

2011 Exolus.

19

2. /:
(43,696 )
()
(43,696 )

()
(41,285 )

2011 Exolus.

20

2. /:

(43,696 )

2011 Exolus.

21

3. :

2011 Exolus.

: Kirsten Bound, Brazil the Natural Knowledge Economy; Isabel Bortagaray, Innovation Clusters in Latin America

22

3. :
Embraer)

Lacit

Aerolane

Lima & Bonf

Solutions & Design Engineering

Winnstal

Aeroarte

Avionics

Tecplas

UTEC

Akaer

Lane Design

VBJ Engenharia

Pan-Metal

Brascopter

Flight Solutions

Vectra Technology

Friuli

Embrasim

Flight Technologies

Rastreal

Globo Usinagem

EQE

GMP Marcatto

TKA

Ambra Solutions

ESRA

Gyrofly

Mikro-Stamp

Geometra BTE

Finetornos

Lanmar

Phoenix Servios Aeronuticos

Mectron

Giovanni Passarella

Marcatto

Winnproject

Inbra-Aerospace

Grauna Aerospace

Massucato

Fibraforte Engenharia

2011 Exolus.

: DECOMI, Brazilian Aerospace Cluster, Believing in Great Ideas

23

3. :
:

45%

OECD 7%

12%

*
45%

8%

12%

100%
90%
80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%
10%
0%

2011 Exolus.

OECD

* 2008

: ,

24

2011 Exolus.

25

14
(2009 2011)
%
60

50

40

30

20

10

2011 Exolus.

France

Poland

Mexico

Vietnam

Canada

Indonesia

Australia

Germany

U.K.

Russia

Brazil

India

United States

China

: World Investment Prospects 2009 - 2011

26

3160
200450020113160.

201014%.
20102.3%; 20111.7%.

2002200829%
. .
2010201310%.

2011 Exolus.

: , 27

2020

2020

2020

2020

Slideshare @
http://www.slideshare.net/contest/worlds-best-presentation-contest-2010/entries
http://www.slideshare.net/Exolus/india-2020-what-india-will-look-like-in-the-future
http://www.slideshare.net/Exolus/brazil-2020-what-will-brazil-look-like-in-the-future
http://www.slideshare.net/Exolus/russia-2020-what-will-russia-look-like-in-the-future

2011 Exolus.

28


,, ,
Exolus: Exolus

Exolus2040

Exolus at: www.exolus.com


: info@exolus.com
: www.exolus.com/en/knowledge/research.html
2011 Exolus.

29

Exolus

2011 Exolus.

30


:
URL:

www.exolus.com

info@exolus.com

www.exolus.com
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2011 Exolus.

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