France Houdard

2010920136
France.houdard@exolus.com
M (86) 135.8591.0838 (China)
M (1) 917.285.6528 (United States)

10

/ &

11

&

14

18

&

19

20

&

21

&

26

29

&

30

&

33

35

36

37

38
2

NASA


5
GDP
9

6
2008

3x

(WTO)

(GATT)

2x

2x
0

: IMF 4

140

(1990 2012)

120

100

80

60

40

20


3 2

900

822

800

756
684

700
600

500

607

99

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531

53

400
300

(
)

170

355

461

525

21,501
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73
35

13,500
21,500
< 13,500

239
255

200

157

100

106

2005

2010F

2015F

2020F

2025F

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-
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1,600
14

1,400

13
12

624

1,200
10

782

800

833
822

822
684

400
200
0

()

705

1,000

600

14.5

()

531
245

381

23%

31%

40%

49%

57%

1985

1995

2005

2015

2025

2007



10+ /

120

10

-> ->


70% 13

3%
2/3 2/3

134.3

90%
/
2

298

NGDC)ETOPO 2 Worldwide BathymetryEthnologue Language of the world


2025

Supply

New Additions

35
11.2

30
25

400
350
300

200

15
25.9

8.2

10
7.0
1.2

1.2

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2010F

150
100

16.4

5
-

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Beijing

Wuhan

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Chengdu

450

250

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20

m illio n s s q .m

b illio n s s q m

40

50

8.2

0
2015F

2020F

2025F

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2008

10


..

2014

1993

11

1,200

25.0%

1,000

000

20.0%

800
15.0%
600
10.0%
400

5.0%
200

0.0%
2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

: Knight Frank 12

25.0%
1,400

000

1,200

20.0%

1,000
15.0%
800

600

10.0%

400
5.0%
200

0.0%
2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

: Knight Frank 13

 - vs.
8

210

Q1 2003 = 100

190

170

150

130

110

90

70

50

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007
Shanghai

2008
Beijing

2009

2010

2011

2012

: Knight Frank 14

IT

HR

Shared
Services

15

IT

HR

SSC

16

8%

605

17

140

(1990 2012)

120

100

80

60

40

20

18

14 (2012 2014)
70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

: World Investment Prospects 2012 - 2014 19


..

20

Q2 2012

1,502

406,480

379

66,867

436

88,349

2,317

561,696

Q2 2012

1,202

306,473

133

36,641

167

63,366

1,502

406,480

: Lodging Econometrics

21

2010

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

8435,000*

6825,500*

22


1,000
2000 - 2012

35
30
25
20
15
10

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45
40

40

35
30

25
20
15
10

5
-

10.6%

6.1%

5
-

23


ARR

20101 - 9
0%

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80%

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50

100

150

200

250

300

STR Global20089

24

(201011

201011

Shanghai
Top 3 Hotels
Top 5 Hotels
Top 10 Hotels

USD24
8%

USD108
38%

USD155
54%

Occ
58%
56%
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ARR RevPAR
$ 336 $
195
$ 329 $
184
$ 269 $
156

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PAR
$
394
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362
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263

(07110811)
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555
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439
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570
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313
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720
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761
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328
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492

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PAR

25

2010

*450

1,400
1,300
1,200
1,100
1,000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
-

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66%

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54%

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736

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605

564

540

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an
gh
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um
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STR Global 2010

26

0.0%

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MICE

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2010

27

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60
80 100

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120

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100

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1
2015

()

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60

40

20

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

84.8

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(UNWTO)

28

2010

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million,

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2015F

CNTA

29

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200

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100

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2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

31

/
60

50

40

30

20

10

0
2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2012

32


200822%

3.5

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3.0

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100%
90
80

2.5

2.0

1
4
11
9

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50

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40
30

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54

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10

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16

9
5

15

11

29

0
1990

0.0

2010

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

33


3 2

900

822

800

756
684

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600

500

607

99

> 107,800

90

53,801- 107,800

531

53

400
300

(
)

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73
35

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239
255

200

157

100

106

2005

2010F

2015F

2020F

2025F

20072008 34

Heilongjian
g
Jilin
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Inner
Mongolia

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Guangxi

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Tibet

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Anhu
i

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017,500
Shanghai
Zhejiang

17,50020,000
20,00025,000
25,00030,000
30,00040,000
>40,000

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2010

35

36

90199740 50%20076%

4 (03 07)2
2

1997-1%2007+4.3%
38%
.

4%

37


2020

11,8 trillions de $

$26.9

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de $

$28.8

27
3,6 trillions
de $

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de
$

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(2009)

27

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EIUIMFCIA) 38


202-5
(% )
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

-2
-4
-6

: The World Bank 39


2
5,860

9%

38%

4%
5%
9%

5,860

7,000

()

7.8

14.3

4.2

14.3

14%

5.10%

20%

76%

10%

-4%

()/GDP

47% (90s)

3% (81-91)

10%
25%

40

14%

18%

14%

39%

19%

19%

56%

37%

10%

()

$7.8

71%

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-4%

$14.3

IMF2008DESTATIS2008CIA) 41

GDP40%GDP

GDPGDP18%

3%
10%12%
3%

42

/
MICE /
/
43

2020

2020

2020

2020

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