Currencies Daily Report

Wednesday| July 10, 2013

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Reena Rohit Chief Manager Non-Agri Commodities and Currencies Reena.rohit@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6134 Anish Vyas Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Currencies Daily Report

Wednesday| July 10, 2013

Highlights
OMCs to buy dollars from SBI as per RBI circular in yesterdays trade. UKs Manufacturing Production declined 0.8 percent in month of May. Japans Tertiary Industry Activity increased by 1.2 percent in May May. Asian markets are trading higher today on the back of favorable economic data from Japan along with surplus in Chinas trade balance. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has cut the global growth forecast ast to 3.1 percent for 2013 from earlier estimates of 3.3 percent in April. The agency has also lowered expectations for the next year to 3.8 percent from 4 percent in the month of April. Euro Zone is projected to contract by 0.6 percent in 2013 and expands s around 1 percent in next year. IMF also predicted that US economy will grow at slow pace of 1 1.7 percent for the current year. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has ordered state-owned owned oil companies (OMCs) to purchase their dollar requirements from State B Bank of India (SBI) and curb the volatility in the currency. Oil refiners are the biggest buyers of US dollars and account for $8-8.5 8.5 billion of monthly requirements. The state owned refiners have agreed to implement the RBIs move from immediate effect. The e companies are even ready to accept RBI selling dollars directly through a single window.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last Prev. day

as on July 9, 2013 WoW MoM YoY

NIFTY SENSEX DJIA S&P FTSE KOSPI BOVESPA NIKKEI Nymex Crude (Aug13) - $/bbl Comex Gold (Aug13) - $/oz Comex Silver(Sept13) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne CRB Index (Industrial) G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% - Yield

5859.0 19439.5 15300.34 1652.3 15790.6 1959.2 58497.8 14472.9 103.53 1245.90 19.13

0.8 0.6 0.5 0.7 -0.1 -1.5 0.2 2.6 0.4 0.9 0.5

0.0 -0.1 2.2 2.4 2.8 5.6 29.3 -0.1 5.7 0.2 -0.9

-0.4 0.1 1.2 0.5 -2.0 2.6 16.0 11.0 8.5 -10.5 -12.3

10.2 6.3 20.1 22.0 13.9 2.0 9.2 63.4 20.4 -21.6 -28.8

6756.00 102.09

-1.1 0.0

-2.5 4.4

-13.9 2.7

-9.9 2.2

US Dollar Index
The US Dollar Index (DX) increased around 0.4 percent in the yesterdays trade on the back of expectations that Fed will go ahead with its reduction plan in bond buying as early as from September. However, recovery in market sentiments capped sharp gains in the currency. The DX touched an intra-day high of 84.97 and closed at 84. 84.78 on Tuesday.

Source: Reuters

US Dollar (% change)
Last Prev. day WoW

as on July 9, 2013 MoM YoY

Dollar/INR
The Indian Rupee appreciated around 1 percent in yesterdays trading session after the currency touched all time low in previous session session. The currency appreciated on account of steps taken by Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on banning banks from proprietary trading in domestic currency futures and options. Additionally, Securities Exchange Board of India (SEBI) doubled the margin requirement on domestic dollar dollar-rupee trade which supported an upside in the currency. Further, , recovery in global and domestic markets acted as a positive factor for prices. The currency touched an intra-day day high of 59.71 and closed at 60.09 on Tuesday. For the month of July 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs. Rs.782.40 crores th ($134.05 million) as on 9 July 2013. Year to date basis, ne net capital th inflows stood at Rs.72,960.60 960.60 crores ($13,634.90 million) till 9 July 2013. Outlook From the intra-day day perspective, we expect the Rupee to appreciate on account of recovery in global and domestic markets. Additionally, recent measures taken by SEBI and RBI along with OMCs allowed to purchase dollars only from SBI will act as a positive factor actor for the Rupee Rupee. However, strength in the DX will cap sharp gains in the currency.

Dollar Index US $ / INR (Spot) US $ / INR July13 Futures (NSE) US $ / INR July13 Futures (MCX-SX)

84.78 60.09 60.46 60.48

0.4 1.0 -0.79 0.79 -0.72 0.72

1.2 -0.9 0.93 0.99

4.5 -5.3 5.61 5.60

6.7 -7.8 8.56 8.60

Technical Chart USD/INR

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
US Dollar/INR July13 (NSE/MCX-SX)

valid for July 9, 2013 Trend Down Support 60.20/60.0 Resistance 60.70/60.90

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Currencies Daily Report

Wednesday| July 10, 2013

Euro/INR
The Euro depreciated around 0.7 percent in the yesterdays trade on the back of strength in the DX. Further, unfavorable economic data from the region exerted downside pressure on the currency. However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned on account of recovery in global markets. The Euro touched an intra intra-day low of 1.2754 and closed at 1.278 against the dollar on Tuesday. French Gov Budget Balance was at a deficit of 72.6 billion Euro Euros in May as against a deficit of 66.8 billion Euros a month ago. Outlook In todays session, we expect the Euro to trade higher on the back of recovery in the global markets. However, expectations of weak industrial production data from the region coupled with stronger DX will prevent sharp gains or even reversal in the currency currency. Further, cut in the Italys long-term credit rating by S&P to BBB from BBB+ will act as a negative factor. Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR July13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Down 77.50/77.30 77.90/71.10 valid for July 10, 2013

Euro (% change)
Last Prev. day

as on July 9, 2013 WoW MoM YoY

Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR July 13 Futures (NSE) Euro / INR July13 Futures (MCX-SX)

1.278 76.80 77.8 77.8

-0.7 1.7 -0.61 -0.52

-1.5 0.6 -0.30 -0.26

-3.3 -1.8 2.44 2.48

4.3 -11.6 12.87 12.94

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Euro

Source: Telequote

Support

Resistance

GBP (% change)

as on July 9, 2013

GBP/INR
$ / GBP (Spot)

Last

Prev. day

WoW

MoM

YoY

1.4865 89.262 89.84

-0.57 0.57 -1.53 1.53 -1.07 1.07

-1.9 -1.08 -1.19

-4.4 0.52 0.82

-4.2 3.87 3.89

The Sterling Pound depreciated around 0.6 percent yesterday taking cues from strength in the DX. Further, unfavorable economic data from the country acted as a negative factor. . The Sterling Pound touched an intra-day low of 1.4812 and closed at 1.4865 against dollar on Tuesday. UKs Manufacturing Production declined 0.8 percent in May as compared to fall of 0.2 percent a month earlier. Trade Balance w was at a deficit of 8.5 billion Pounds in May with respect to deficit of 8.4 billion Pounds in prior month. Outlook We expect the Sterling Pound to trade on a positive note on the back of recovery in the global markets. However, stronger DX will restrict sharp upside movement in the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR July 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways valid for July 10, 2013 Support 89.65/89.50 Resistance 90.0/90.20

GBP / INR (Spot) GBP / INR July13 Futures (NSE) GBP / INR July 13 Futures (MCX-SX)

89.91

-0.94 0.94

-1.05

0.84

4.00

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Sterling Pound

Source: Telequote

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Currencies Daily Report

Wednesday| July 10, 2013

JPY/INR
JPY (% change) The Japanese Yen depreciated preciated around 0.2 percent in the yesterdays trading session on account of rise in risk appetite in the global markets which led to fall in demand for the currency. The Yen touched an intra intra-day low of 101.29 and closed at 101.14 against dollar on Tues Tuesday. Japans Tertiary Industry Activity increased by 1.2 percent in May as against a decline of 0.5 percent a month ago. Corporate Goods Price Index (CGPI) gained by 1.2 percent in June from earlier rise of 0. 0.5 percent in May. Outlook day trade, we expect the Japanese Yen to depreciate, taking cues For intra-day from rise in risk appetite in the global markets, which could lead to fall in demand for the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR July 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways valid for July 10, 2013 Support 59.55/59.40 Resistance 59.95/60.10 Last Prev day as on July 9, 2013 WoW MoM YoY

JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR July13 Futures (NSE) JPY 100 / INR July13 Futures (MCX-SX)

101.14 0.5941 59.81

0.2 -1.18 -0.70

0.5 0.54 -0.36

3.7 1.56 -0.13

27.4 -14.63 -14.16

59.85

-0.51

-0.21

-0.02

-14.12

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart JPY

Economic Indicators to be released on July 10, 2013

Indicator Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact

Tertiary Industry Activity m/m Trade Balance French Industrial Production m/m Crude Oil Inventories 10-y Bond Auction FOMC Meeting Minutes

Japan China Euro US US US

5:20am Tentative 12:15pm 8:00pm 10:30pm 11:30pm

1.2% 27.1B -

0.9% 27.8B -0.5% -2.9M -

0.0% 20.4B 2.2% -10.3M 2.21/2.5 -

Medium High Medium Medium Medium High

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