Commodities Evening Update

Wednesday | July 10, 2013

International Commodities

Content
Days overview Market Highlights Outlook Important Events for Today

Research Team
Reena Rohit Chief Manager Non-Agri Commodities and Currencies Reena.rohit@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6134 Anish Vyas Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Commodities Evening Update

Wednesday | July 10, 2013

International Commodities
News and Analysis French Industrial Production declined around 0.4 percent in May. LME Copper inventories dropped 0.6 percent in todays trade. US crude oil inventories expected to fall 3.1 mn bbl Reuters. European equities are trading lower today on the back of unfavorable economic data from the region coupled with cut in the global growth forecast by International Monetary Fund (IMF). Asian markets ended on a mixed note and US stock futures are trading on a flat note. German Final Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained unchanged at 0.1 percent in the month of June. French Industrial Production declined around 0.4 percent in May from rise of 2.2 percent a month ago. Italian Industrial Production grew at slow pace of 0.1 percent in May with respect to decline of 0.3 percent in earlier month. Spot gold prices rose around 0.4 percent today on the back of weakness in the US Dollar Index (DX). However, fall in the SPDR gold holdings capped sharp gains in prices. In the Indian markets, prices gained around 0.4 percent but appreciation in the Rupee prevented sharp upside in prices. Taking cues from rise in gold prices along with upside in the base metals group, Spot silver prices increased around 0.1 percent today. Further, weakness in the DX supported an upside in prices. However, cut in the global growth forecast by IMF and unfavorable economic data from Euro Zone restricted sharp positive movement in prices. Appreciation in the Indian Rupee capped sharp gains in prices on the MCX. The base metals complex traded higher today on account of weakness in the DX coupled with decline in LME inventories except Nickel. However, cut in global growth forecast by IMF and weak economic data from Euro Zone capped sharp gains in prices. On the domestic front, appreciation in the Rupee prevented positive movement in prices on the MCX. Copper prices on LME rose around 0.1 percent on the back of decline in copper inventories around 0.6 percent which stood at 646,000 tonnes coupled with weakness in the DX. However, sharp upside was capped as a result of cut in global growth forecast from IMF. Appreciation in the Rupee restricted further gains in prices on the MCX. Nymex crude oil prices gained around 1.3 percent today taking cues from expectations of decline in US crude oil inventories coupled with unrest and political turmoil in Egypt. Further, weakness in the DX along with more than expected plunge in API crude oil inventories yesterday supported an upside in prices. On the domestic bourses, appreciation in the Rupee capped sharp gains in prices. The US Energy Department (EIA) is scheduled to release its weekly inventories report today at 8:00pm IST and US crude oil inventories is expected to fall by 3.1 million barrels for the week ending on 5th July 2013. Performance during the day
Index Nifty Sensex Nikkei Kospi FTSE Open High

as at 4.30 pm 9 July 13
Low Last % Chg from Prev day

5869.90 19482.66 14464.82 1835.94 15710.86

5879.35 19505.93 14555.33 1836.91 15783.42

5802.85 19237.91 14287.69 1818.94 15570.10

5816.70 19294.12 14416.60 1824.16 15570.10

-0.72 -0.75 -0.39 -0.34 -1.05

Source: Reuters

as at 4.30 pm 9 July 13
Currency Dollar Index Euro/$ Spot INR/$ Spot Open High Low Current % Chg from Prev day

84.88 1.2779 60.05

84.93 1.2835 60.21

84.425 1.2763 59.921

84.525 1.2818 59.983

-0.30 0.30 -0.18

Source: Reuters

as at 4.30 pm 9 July 13
Commodity Spot Gold Comex Gold Aug13 MCX Gold Aug13 Spot Silver Comex Silver Sept13 MCX Silver Sept13 Crude Oil Nymex Aug 13 ICE -Brent Crude Oil MCX Crude Oil Aug 13 Copper LME - 3 Month MCX Copper Aug13 Zinc LME - 3 Month Zinc MCX - July13 Lead LME - 3 Month Lead MCX - July13 Nickel LME - 3 Month Nickel MCX July13 Aluminum LME - 3 Month Aluminum MCX July13 Unit Open High Low Last % Chg from Prev day

$/oz $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz $/oz

1249.89 1244.60 26009.00 19.23 0.1923 40060 104.57 108.12 6210 6756.25 407.80 1869.00 110.75 2040 122.30 13450 804.00 1797.00 106.10

1256.30 1244.60 26251.0 19.30 0.1923 40390 104.94 108.47 6307 6792.00 411.70 1889.00 112.10 2060 123.40 13666 819.50 1809.00 107.00

1243.54 1244.60 25976.0 18.99 0.19015 39930 104.21 107.71 6210 6685.00 405.00 1855.25 110.30 2023 121.30 13299 798.80 1785.00 105.60

1253.30 1244.60 26118.00 19.23 0.1921 40215 104.85 108.10 6291 6760.50 410.15 1884.50 111.90 2054 123.10 13608 816.70 1806.00 106.80

0.36 -0.10 0.42 0.04 0.44 0.12 1.27 0.27 1.32 0.07 0.34 0.83 0.81 0.64 0.61 1.36 1.38 0.73 0.56

Rs/kg $/bbl

$/bbl Rs/bbl $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne

Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg

Source: Reuters

Commodities Evening Update

Wednesday | July 10, 2013

International Commodities
Outlook

In the evening session, we expect precious metals, base metals and crude oil prices to trade higher on the back of weakness in the DX. However, sharp upside in prices will be capped or reversal can be seen on the back of cut in the global growth forecast by IMF along with any major announcements regarding pullback in stimulus spending by the Federal Reserve in its minutes today. Crude oil prices will get upside support in prices on account of expectations of decline in the US crude oil inventories.

Technical Outook for evening session 9 July 13 ( CMP as of 5.00 pm)

Commodity Gold Aug'13 Spot Gold Silver Sept13 Spot Silver Crude Oil Aug13 Nymex Crude Oil Aug13 Natural Gas July13 LME Copper Copper Aug13 Zinc July13 Lead July13 Aluminum July13 Nickel July13 Unit Rs/10 gm $/oz Rs /kg $/oz Rs /bbl $/bbl Rs /mmBtu $/tonne Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Support 2 Support 1 CMP Resistance1 Resistance 2

25880 1235 39430 18.64 6180 102.95 216 6570 400 109.2 119.55 104.8 796

25971 1242 39700 18.85 6240 103.95 221 6660 404.4 110.3 121.2 105.5 804

26111 1252.6 40198 19.22 6293 104.83 224.8 6784 410.5 111.95 123.2 106.85 816.8

26245 1263 40420 19.40 6327 105.4 229 6810 412 112.2 123.8 107.25 821

26400 1275 40700 19.62 6381 106.3 231 6860 414.5 113.2 124.5 108 825

Important Events for Today

Indicator Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact

Tertiary Industry Activity m/m Trade Balance French Industrial Production m/m Crude Oil Inventories 10-y Bond Auction FOMC Meeting Minutes

Japan China Euro US US US

5:20am Tentative 12:15pm 8:00pm 10:30pm 11:30pm

1.2% 27.1B -0.4% -

0.9% 27.8B -0.5% -3.1M -

0.0% 20.4B 2.2% -10.3M 2.21/2.5 -

Medium High Medium Medium Medium High