Currencies Daily Report

Thursday| July 11, 2013

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Reena Rohit Chief Manager Non-Agri Commodities and Currencies Reena.rohit@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6134 Anish Vyas Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Currencies Daily Report

Thursday| July 11, 2013

Highlights
US Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke hints it will continue with stimulus. French Industrial Production declined around 0.4 percent in May May. Japans Core Machinery Orders rose sharply by 10.5 percent in May. Asian markets are trading higher today on the back of statement from US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke that highly accommodative policy is required for better future of worlds largest economy US. Further, favorable able machinery orders data from Japan also supported an upside in market sentiments.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last Prev. day

as on July 10, 2013 WoW MoM YoY

NIFTY SENSEX DJIA S&P FTSE KOSPI BOVESPA NIKKEI Nymex Crude (Aug13) - $/bbl Comex Gold (Aug13) - $/oz Comex Silver(Sept13) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne CRB Index (Industrial) G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% - Yield

5816.7 19294.1 15291.66 1652.6 15677.3 1959.2 58497.8 14416.6 106.52 1247.40 19.15

-0.7 -0.7 -0.1 0.0 -0.7 -1.5 0.2 -0.4 2.9 0.1 0.1

0.8 0.6 2.4 2.3 2.6 7.4 29.9 -0.1 6.9 -0.4 -2.7

-1.0 -0.8 2.0 0.6 -2.9 4.1 18.6 10.8 11.1 -9.5 -11.3

10.3 5.5 20.9 23.2 13.1 2.0 9.5 62.9 26.9 -21.0 -29.1

US Dollar Index
The US Dollar Index (DX) declined around 0.6 percent in the yesterdays trade on the back of statement from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke that central banks needs to wait and watch for more favorable labor markets before tapering its asset purchases program program. Further, mixed reaction in the Federal Reserve minutes which was held yesterday saw that many members were in favor of continuation of bond buying program and want further fall in jobs data data, while others opted for reduction in stimulus package exerted downside pressure on the currency. The DX touched an intra-day low of 83 83.64 and closed at 84.23 on Wednesday.

6797.50 102.09

0.6 0.0

-2.8 4.6

-13.4 2.9

-10.2 2.1

Dollar/INR
The Indian Rupee appreciated around 0.4 percent in yesterdays trading session. The currency appreciated on the back of measures taken by Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to buy dollars for state owned oil companies only from SBI. Further, weakness in the DX in the early part of the trade supported an upside in currency. Additionally, expectations of more measures from RBI along with probability of jewelers banning sale of gold coins and bars for six months which will provide relief to Current Account Deficit (CAD) of the country acted as a positive factor for the Rupee. The currency touched an intra intraday high of 59.635 and closed at 59.88 on Wednesday. For the month of July 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs.949.60 crores th ($161.88 million) as on 10 July 2013. Year to date basis, net capital th inflows stood at Rs.73,127.80 crores ($13,662.70 million) till 10 July 2013. Outlook From the intra-day perspective, ive, we expect the Rupee to sharply appreciate on account of upbeat global and domestic markets coupled with weakness in the DX. Further, expectations of more measures to be taken by RBI along with ease in the Feds reduction for stimulus measures will support an upside in the currency.

Source: Reuters

US Dollar (% change)
Last Prev. day WoW

as on July 10, 2013 MoM YoY

Dollar Index US $ / INR (Spot) US $ / INR July13 Futures (NSE) US $ / INR July13 Futures (MCX-SX)

84.23 59.88 59.93 59.96

-0.6 0.4 -0.88 0.88 -0.86 0.86

0.9 0.5 -0.95 -0.89

4.1 -3.0 2.65 2.78

6.0 -7.3 7.92 7.99

Technical Chart USD/INR

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Trend US Dollar/INR July13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Down

valid for July 11, 2013 Support 59.60/59.40 Resistance 60.10/60.30

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Currencies Daily Report

Thursday| July 11, 2013

Euro/INR
The Euro appreciated around 1.5 percent in the yesterdays trade on the back of weakness in the DX. Further, upbeat global markets also supported an upside in the currency. Additionally, economic data from the region came better than forecasted also acted as a positive factor. The Euro touched an intra intra-day high of 1.2983 and closed at 1.2974 against the dollar on Wednesday. German Final Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained un unchanged at 0.1 percent in the month of June. French Industrial Production declined around 0.4 percent in May from rise of 2.2 percent a month ago. Italian Industrial Production grew at slow pace of 0.1 percent in May with respect to decline of 0.3 percent in earlier month. Outlook In todays session, we expect the Euro to trade higher on the back of upbeat global markets. Further, weakness in the DX will also support an upside in the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR July13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Down 76.70/76.50 77.10/77.30 valid for July 11, 2013 Support Resistance

Euro (% change)
Last Prev. day

as on July 10, 2013 WoW MoM YoY

Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR July 13 Futures (NSE) Euro / INR July13 Futures (MCX-SX)

1.2974 77.70 76.9 76.9

1.5 -1.2 -1.13 -1.17

-0.2 0.8 -1.93 -1.91

-2.1 -0.8 -0.29 -0.30

6.0 -12.5 12.50 12.58

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Euro

Source: Telequote

GBP (% change)

as on July 10, 2013

Last

Prev. day

WoW

MoM

YoY

GBP/INR
$ / GBP (Spot) 1.501 90.604 89.39 0.98 1.50 -0.50 0.50 -1.8 -1.56 -3.15 -3.6 0.10 -1.33 -3.2 5.41 3.77

The Sterling Pound appreciated around 1 percent in yesterdays trading session taking cues from weakness in the DX. Further, rise in risk appetite in the global markets in the later part of the trade supported an upside in the currency. . The Sterling Pound touched an intra intra-day high of 1.5012 and closed at 1.501 against dollar on Wednesday. day. Outlook We expect the Sterling Pound to trade on a positive no note on the back of upbeat global markets. Further, weakness in the DX will act as a positive factor for the Pound. Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR July 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Down valid for July 11, 2013 Support 89.20/89.0 Resistance 89.60/89.80

GBP / INR (Spot) GBP / INR July13 Futures (NSE) GBP / INR July 13 Futures (MCX-SX)

89.43

-0.54 0.54

-3.13

-1.32

3.80

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Sterling Pound

Source: Telequote

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Currencies Daily Report

Thursday| July 11, 2013

JPY/INR
JPY (% change) The Japanese Yen appreciated around 1.5 percent in the yesterdays trading session on account of expectations that Bank of Japan (BOJ) will keep its policy unchanged along with rise in risk appetite in the global markets which lead to fall in demand for the currency. . The Yen touched an intra-day high of 99.41 and closed at 99.64 4 against dollar on Wednesday. Japans Core Machinery Orders rose sharply by 10.5 percent in May as against a decline of 8.8 percent a month earlier. Outlook For intra-day trade, we expect the Japanese Yen to ap appreciate, taking cues from expectation that BOJ will keep its policy steady and likely to upgrade its view on the economy. However, rise in risk appetite in the global markets, which could lead to fall in demand for the currency and capped sharp gains in the Yen. Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR July 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Down valid for July 11, 2013 Support 59.70/59.50 Resistance 60.15/60.30
Source: Telequote

as on July 10, 2013 Last Prev day WoW MoM YoY

JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR July13 Futures (NSE) JPY 100 / INR July13 Futures (MCX-SX)

99.64 0.6048 59.94

-1.5 1.80 0.23

-0.3 0.22 -1.52

0.9 2.82 1.59

25.0 -13.35 -14.10

59.91

0.09

-1.57

1.59

-14.17

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart JPY

Economic Indicators to be released on July 11, 2013

Indicator Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact

Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks Core Machinery Orders m/m Monetary Policy Statement BOJ Press Conference ECB Monthly Bulletin German Buba President Weidmann Speaks MPC Member Miles Speaks Unemployment Claims Import Prices m/m Federal Budget Balance

US Japan Japan Japan Euro Euro UK US US US

1:40am 5:20am Tentative Tentative 1:30pm 1:30pm 2:00pm 6:00pm 6:00pm 11:30pm

10.5% -

1.9% 342K 0.1% 42.1B

-8.8% 343K -0.6% -138.7B

High Medium High High Medium Medium Medium High Medium Medium

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