Commodities Daily Report

Friday| July 12, 12 2013

International Commodities

Content
Overview Precious Metals Energy Base Metals Important Events for today

Research Team
Reena Rohit Chief Manager Non-Agri Currencies and Commodities Reena.rohit@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6134 Anish Vyas Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Commodities Daily Report

Friday| July 12, 12 2013

International Commodities
Overview
US Unemployment Claims increased to 360,000 for w/e on 5 July. German WPI declined by 0.4 percent in the last month. US Federal Budget Balance was at a surplus of $116.5 billion in June. Asian markets are trading higher today extending gains from yesterdays trade on the back of statement from Fed regarding continuation of its stimulus measures. US Unemployment Claims increased by 16,000 to 360,000 for the week th ending on 5 July as against a rise of 344,000 in prior week. Import Prices declined by 0.2 percent in June from earlier fall of 0.7 percent in May. Federal Budget Balance was at a surplus of $116.5 billion in June with respect to deficit of $138.7 billion a month ago. The US Dollar Index (DX) declined sharply around 1.6 percent in the yesterdays trade on the back of statement from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke that central banks needs to wait and watch for more favorable labor markets before tapering its asset purchases program. Further, rise in risk sentiments in global markets also exerted downside pressure on the currency. The DX touched an intra-day low of 82.60 and closed at 82.92 on Thursday. The Indian Rupee appreciated in the initial part of the trade in yesterdays trading ding session on the back of statement from US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke regarding continuation of its stimulus measures. This factor added downside pressure on DX and acted as a positive factor for Indian Rupee. Further, expectations of more me measures to be taken by Reserve Bank of India (RBI) supported an upside in currency. However, during the day currency depreciated on account of dollar demand from importers and oil firms which erased the gains and led to depreciation in the Rupee. The currency ncy touched an intra intra-day high of 59.32 and closed at 59.82 on Thursday. For the month of July 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs.1023.0 crores th ($174.09 million) as on 11 July 2013. Year to date basis, net capital th inflows stood at Rs.73,201.20 crores ($13,674.90 13,674.90 million) till 11 July 2013.
th

Market Highlights (% change)

Last INR/$ (Spot) Prev day

as on 11 July, 2013 w-o-w m-o-m y-o-y

59.819

0.1

0.4

-3.2

-7.2

$/Euro (Spot)

1.3094

0.9

1.4

-2.1

7.0

Dollar Index NIFTY

82.92

-1.6 1.6

-0.6

2.7

4.4

5935.1

2.0

1.7

4.1

11.0

SENSEX

19676.1

2.0

1.4

4.5

7.6

DJIA

15460.9

1.1

3.2

1.9

22.7

S&P

1675.0

1.4

3.7

3.0

24.9

Source: Reuters

The Euro appreciated around 1 percent in the yesterdays trade on the back of sharp fall in the DX. Further, upbeat global markets also supported an upside in the currency. day high of 1.3201 and closed at The Euro touched an intra-day 1.3094 against the dollar on Thursday hursday. German Wholesale Price Index (WPI) declined by 0.4 percent in the last month. French Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.2 percent in June as against a rise of 0.1 percent a month ago.

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Commodities Daily Report

Friday| July 12, 12 2013

International Commodities
Bullion Gold
Spot gold prices gained around 1.7 percent in yesterdays trading session on the back of weakness in the DX coupled with upbeat market sentiments after Fed Chairman Ben Bernankes speech on Wednesday indicated an accommodative monetary policy led to rise i in risk appetite. The yellow metal touched an intra-day day high of $1298.36/oz and closed at $1284.70/oz in yesterdays trade. In the Indian markets, prices ended on a positive note, rising more than 2 percent. The commodity closed at Rs.26677/10 gms after touching a high of Rs.26858/10 gms on Thursday Thursday. However, appreciation in the Indian Rupee capped sharp gains in prices on the MCX. Market Highlights - Gold (% change)
Gold Gold (Spot) Unit $/oz Last Prev. day as on 11 July, 2013 WoW MoM YoY

1284.7 26600.0 1285.0

1.7 2.2 2.3

2.8 1.6 2.7

-7.3 -4.6 -7.2

-18.5 -8.6 -18.5

Gold (Spot Mumbai) Gold (LBMA-PM Fix) Comex Gold (August13) MCX Gold (August13)

Rs/10 gms $/oz

$/oz

1280.1

2.7

2.2

-7.1

-18.9

Rs /10 gms

26677.0

2.2

2.0

-3.9

-8.8

Source: Reuters

Silver
Market Highlights - Silver (% change) Taking cues from rise in gold prices along with upside in base metals complex, Spot silver prices rose sharply around 4 percent in the yesterdays trade. Further, weakness in the DX acted as a positive factor for prices. The white metal touched an intra intra-day high of $20.26/oz and closed at $20.10/oz in the yesterdays trading session. omestic front, prices gained 3.8 percent and closed at On the domestic Rs.41,697/kg after touching a high of Rs.41,948/kg on Thursday Thursday. However, appreciation in the Indian Rupee capped sharp gains in prices on the MCX.
Silver Silver (Spot) Silver (Spot Mumbai) Silver (LBMA) Comex Silver (Sept13) MCX Silver (Sept13) Unit $/oz Rs/1 kg Last Prev day as on 11 July, 2013 WoW MoM YoY

20.1 41890.0 1985.0 19.9 41697.0

4.0 2.3 2.5 0.0 3.8

3.0 -0.3 1.4 6.5 3.0

-7.8 -6.5 -9.1 -9.2 -3.6

-25.8 -20.5 -26.8 -26.5 -20.9

$/oz $/ oz

Rs / kg

Outlook
Precious metal prices are expected to trade on a higher note in todays trade, taking cues from weakness in the DX coupled with upbeat global markets. Further, statement from US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke indicating a continuation of stimulus measures will act as a major supportive factor r for prices. In the Indian markets however, appreciation in the Rupee will cap sharp gains in prices on the MCX. Technical Outlook
Unit Spot Gold MCX Gold Aug13 Spot Silver MCX Silver Sept13 $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz Rs/kg valid for July 12, 2013 Support 1267/1248 26290/25900 19.93/19.58 41315/40682 Resistance 1302/1317 26960/27246 20.47/20.81 42330/42963

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Spot Gold

Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report

Friday| July 12, 12 2013

International Commodities
Energy Crude Oil
Nymex crude oil prices slipped 1.5 percent in yesterdays trade after sharp rise in previous sessions on the back of forecast by International Energy Agency that supply from non-OPEC OPEC (Organization Petroleum Exporting Countries) will increase in 2014. Further, rise in US jobless claims data exerted downside pressure on prices. However, due to unrest and political turmoil in Egypt supply concerns supply concerns still persists from the region. Crude oil prices touched an intra-day day low of $104.31/bbl and closed at $104. $104.90/bbl in yesterdays trade. On the domestic bourses, prices fell 1.7 percent in yesterdays trade as a result of appreciation in the Rupee. The commodity closed at Rs.6,283/bbl after touching a low of Rs.6,256/bbl on Thursday. Market Highlights - Crude Oil (% change)
Crude Oil Brent (Spot) Nymex Crude (Aug 13) ICE Brent Crude (Aug13) MCX Crude (July 13) Unit $/bbl $/bbl Last Prev. day WoW as on 11 July, 2013 MoM YoY

108.7 104.9 107.7

-0.2 -1.5 -0.7

2.9 3.6 2.1

4.9 8.5 3.3

9.1 22.3 7.5

$/bbl

Rs/bbl

6283.0

-1.7

3.4

12.8

31.6
Source: Reuters

Market Highlights - Natural Gas (% change)

Natural Gas (NG) Nymex NG MCX NG (July 13)

as on 11 July, 2013

Natural Gas
Nymex natural gas prices slipped around 1.3 percent yesterday on the back of more than expected rise in US natural gas inventories. However, weakness in the DX coupled with expectations of warm weather will lead to increase in demand of natural gas cushioned sh sharp fall in prices. Gas prices touched an intra-day day low of $3.574/mmbtu and closed at $3.613/mmbtu in yesterdays trade. On the domestic front, prices fell around 2 percent on account of appreciation in the Indian Rupee and closed at Rs.216.90/mmbtu after touching a low of Rs.215/mmbtu on Thursday. EIA Inventories As per the US Energy Department (EIA) report, US natural gas inventories rose more than expectations by 82 billion cubic feet to 2.687 trillion cubic feet for the week ending on 5th July 2013. Outlook From the intra-day day perspective, we expect crude oil prices to trade on a mixed note on the back of forecast by IEA of increase in supply from non-OPEC OPEC members in 2014 will exert downside pressure on oil prices prices. While on the other hand, unrest and political turmoil in Egypt has led to supply concerns from the region along with weakness in the DX will support an upside in prices. In the Indian markets appreciation in the Rupee will add downside pressure in prices on the MCX. Technical Outlook
Unit NYMEX Crude Oil MCX Crude July13 $/bbl Rs/bbl valid for July 12, 2013 Support 103.45/102.30 6220/6156 Resistance 105.50/106.50 6320/6382

Unit $/mmbtu Rs/ mmbtu

Last 3.613 216.9

Prev. day -1.3 -1.9

WoW -1.53 -1.77

MoM -2.90 -0.73

YoY 26.64 38.86

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart NYMEX Crude Oil

Source: Telequote

Technical Chart NYMEX Natural Gas

Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report

Friday| July 12, 12 2013

International Commodities
Base Metals
Market Highlights - Base Metals (% change) The base metals pack traded on a positive note in yesterdays trade on the back of favourable machinery orders data from Japan. Additionally, optimistic global markets and a weaker Dollar Index also supported an upside in prices. Statement by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, regarding continuation in its stimulus spending boosted risk sentiments in the global markets and supported base metal prices that have declined sharply in the last month on the back of expectations of pullback in stimulus by the Fed. In the Indian markets, appreciation in the Rupee capped sharp gains in prices on the MCX.
Unit LME Copper (3 month) MCX Copper (Aug13) LME Aluminum (3 month) MCX Aluminum (July13) LME Nickel (3 month) MCX Nickel (July13) LME Lead (3 month) MCX Lead (July13) LME Zinc (3 month) $/tonne Rs /kg $/tonne Rs /kg $/tonne Rs /kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Last Prev. day as on 11 July, 2013 WoW MoM YoY

7002.5 423.1 1831.5 108.1 13642.0 818.9 2070.8 123.9 1898.3

3.0 2.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.0 -0.3 0.2

1.1 0.7 1.2 0.6 -1.3 -1.5 0.1 -0.3 2.1

-10.8 3.6 -1.5 1.8 -3.3 0.0 -1.0 2.4 2.8

-7.5 0.0 -3.7 3.1 -15.6 -9.2 10.7 19.0 2.6

Copper
Copper prices traded on a positive note and rose around 3 percent in yesterdays trading session on the back of positive market sentiments in global markets and weakness in the Dollar Index supported an upside in prices. Additionally, decline in LME copper inventories around 0.1 percent which stood at 645,175 tonnes acted as a positive factor for prices prices. The red metal touched an intra-day high of $7049 7049.25/tonne and closed at $7002.5/tonne in yesterdays trade. On the domestic front, prices rose 2.7 percent but appreciation in the Rupee capped gains and closed at Rs. 423.1/kg /kg after touching a high of Rs.425.30/kg on Thursday. Outlook In todays session, we expect base metals prices to trade on a positive note on the back of weakness in the DX coupled with optimistic markets. Further, remark by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke to continue its easy monetary policy will also support an upside in prices. In the Indian markets, appreciation in the Rupee will cap sharp gains in prices on the MCX. Technical Outlook
Unit MCX Copper Aug13 MCX Zinc July 13 MCX Lead July 13 MCX Aluminum July13 MCX Nickel July 13 Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg valid for July 12, 201 2013 Support 420.20/415.30 111.40/110.40 122.40/120.90 107.30/106.40 813/806 Resistance 428.0/433.0 113.40/114.60 124.60/125.70 108.90/109.70 826/834

MCX Zinc (July13)

Rs /kg

112.5

0.0

1.4

6.3

9.2

Source: Reuters

LME Inventories
Unit Copper Aluminum Nickel Zinc Lead tonnes tonnes tonnes tonnes tonnes 11th July 645,175 5,417,100 194,754 1,014,225 194,375 10th July 646,000 5,425,425 194,712 1,020,150 194,875 Actual Change -825 -8,325 42 -5,925 -500 (%) Change -0.1 -0.2 0.0 -0.6 -0.3
Source: Reuters

Technical Chart LME Copper

Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report

Friday| July 12, 12 2013

International Commodities
Important Events for Today
Indicator Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact

Industrial Production m/m PPI m/m Core PPI m/m Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment FOMC Member Bullard Speaks

Euro US US US US

2:30pm 6:00pm 6:00pm 7:25pm 10:30pm

-0.2% 0.5% 0.2% 85.3 -

0.4% 0.5% 0.1% 84.1 -

Medium High Medium High Medium

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