Market Outlook: Dealer's Diary

Market Outlook
July 15, 2013
Dealers Diary
Indian markets are expected to open flat today tracking flat opening trades in the
SGX Nifty and marginally positive opening of Asian bourses.
Domestic Indices
BSE Sensex
1.4
US stocks ended Friday's trading mostly higher extending the strong upward trend
that has been shown by the markets over the past few weeks. However, buying
interest was somewhat subdued amid lingering uncertainty about the outlook for
the Federal Reserve's stimulus program. Meanwhile, the European markets ended
Friday's session with mixed results, although the overall trading week was largely
positive. Investors continued to be encouraged by the statements made by Federal
Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke late Wednesday. However, political uncertainty in
Portugal and concerns over China served to limit the upside.
Nifty
1.2
74
6,009
MID CAP
(0.0)
(0)
6,048
SMALL CAP
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
282 19,958
(0.2)
(11)
5,737
BSE HC
1.1
101
9,385
BSE PSU
(0.4)
(24)
5,966
BANKEX
0.6
73 13,376
AUTO
(0.1)
(12) 10,572
Indian shares rose sharply for a second consecutive session on Friday buoyed by
Infosys quarterly result meeting street estimates, and retention of its FY14 revenue
guidance in dollar terms at 6-10 percent.
METAL
0.2
13
7,747
OIL & GAS
0.7
57
8,800
BSE IT
6.5
414
6,826
Markets Today
Global Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
Dow Jones
0.0
The trend deciding level for the day is 19,912/ 5,993 levels. If NIFTY trades above
this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally
up to 20,038 20,118 / 6,035 6,061 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below
19,912 / 5,993 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to
19,832 19,706/ 5,967 5,925 levels.
NASDAQ
0.6
22
3,600
FTSE
0.0
6,545
Nikkei
0.2
34 14,506
Hang Sang
(0.7)
(160) 21,277
Straits Times
(0.4)
(13)
3,236
Shanghai Com
(1.6)
(34)
2,039
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
4.8
2.1
$46.2
Indices
S2
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
SENSEX
19,706
5,925
19,832
5,967
19,912
5,993
20,038
6,035
20,118
6,061
NIFTY
INFY
News Analysis
IIP continues to disappoint with decline in 1.6%

IVRCL bagged various orders worth ~`1,098cr
Some respite on trade deficit, narrows to USD12.2bn in June 2013
Result Review: Infosys, South Indian Bank
Result Preview: Exide Industries
Net Inflows (July 11, 2013)

Purch
2,510
470
Sales
3,823
465
Net
(1,313)
5
MTD
(290)
(751)
YTD
71,016
(12,928)
FII Derivatives (July 12, 2013)

` cr
Index Futures
Stock Futures
Purch
2,604
1,988
Sales
2,533
1,445
Net
71
543
Open Interest
13,388
28,704
Gainers / Losers
Company
Gainers
Price (`)
chg (%)
Company
Losers
Price (`)
chg (%)
Infosys
2,803
10.9
62
(5.0)
Tech Mahindra
1,122
5.2
Gitanjali Gems
142
(5.0)
413
5.1
Emami-$
498
(4.1)
Mphasis
Pipavav Defence
Siemens
www.angelbroking.com
MMTC
WIT
1.4
0.1
$7.8
IBN
(1.3)
(0.5)
$38.4
HDB
(0.5)
(0.2)
$37.4
Advances / Declines
Refer detailed news analysis on the following page
` cr
FII
MFs
Indian ADR
66
4.2
JSW ENERGY
44
(3.8)
553
3.9
Maruti Suzuki
1,453
(3.6)
3 15,464
BSE
NSE
Advances
1,061
596
Declines
1,249
710
140
87
Unchanged
Volumes (` cr)
BSE
1,558
NSE
10,457
Market Outlook
July 15, 2013
IIP continues to disappoint

As per Quick Estimates on the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), industrial growth
in May 2013 continued its poor show as it declined by 1.6% (in contrast with
market expectations of 1.5% growth). The production data continues to reflect
weakness on the demand-side from investment as well as consumption. The index
for April 2013 has been revised downwards owing to revision in mining and
manufacturing. Consequently, growth has decelerated by 40bp to 1.9% from 2.3%
reported earlier.
Performance on Sector-wise classification
In terms of sector-wise classification, electricity production paced higher but
decline in production in mining and manufacturing sectors weighed on overall
output.
The Mining sector continued to contract for the eight consecutive month and
reported a 5.7% decline in May 2013 as against a 0.7% contraction in the
corresponding period of the previous year owing to decline in production of coal,
crude oil and natural gas.
The Manufacturing sector reported a 2.0% decline after having posted tepid
growth since January 2013. . In the near-term, a meaningful recovery in the
manufacturing sector still looks unlikely as consumption and investment side of
growth remains sluggish. Exports have reported about 4.6% de-growth in the
month of June 2013 so manufacturing activity is unlikely to get support in the near
term. But we believe that the sharp INR depreciation and a recovery in global
growth would eventually improve the outlook for exports in the medium term.
Performance in the Use-based category
As per the use-based classification, Consumer Durables continued to weigh on the
overall IIP for the second consecutive month. The 4.0% decline in Consumer
Goods production can be attributed to the sharp 10.4% contraction in Consumer
Durables. Growth in consumer non-durables also slipped to 1.7% as compared to
11.5% in April 2013 and despite a low base (0.1% decline) in the previous year.
The persistence of weakness in consumption is mirrored in slackening of
production in consumer goods. We believe that an improvement in consumption
and in particular for durable goods largely rests on transmission of monetary
policy rate cuts into the economy.
The Capital Goods index posted a 2.7% decline despite a low base, reflecting
continued sluggishness in the investment climate and dashing hopes of a
sustainable recovery. The April 2013 print for capital goods has been revised
lower to reflect a 0.1% de-growth as compared to 1.0% growth reported earlier
while the 9.0% growth in the months of February and March 2013 are aberrations
owing to a low base.
CPI inflation inches upwards to 9.9% in June 2013
In contrast with expectations of a further moderation in CPI inflation, the combined
(rural + urban) inflation for June 2013 accelerated to almost double-digits at
9.9% from 9.3% in May 2013. Inflation in food articles in the CPI (accounting for
almost 50% weightage in the index) came in higher at 11.7% as compared to
10.7% in the previous month and this can be attributed mainly to seasonal factors.
Market Outlook
July 15, 2013
Fuel inflation also inched higher to 8.7% during June 2013 as against 8.5% in the
previous month. Worryingly though, core (non-food, non-fuel) CPI inflation has
also accelerated to 8.2% in June 2013 as against a moderation to 7.7% in the
previous month.
Going ahead, we are positive on the trajectory for food inflation owing to the
decent rabi production, pick-up in sowing of kharif crops and reasonable MSP
price hikes announced by the government for the kharif crops. The sowing of
kharif crops has reached about 517.7 lakh hectares ie a 51.6% pick-up as
compared to the coverage during the corresponding period of the previous year.
Some respite on trade deficit, narrows to USD12.2bn in June

2013
Provisional data released by the commerce ministry shows that Indias trade deficit
for June 2013 narrowed to USD12.2bn, a huge respite as compared to
USD20.1bn in the previous month. The narrowing of the deficit for June 2013 can
be attributed to de-growth of imports in particular lower non-oil imports. Imports
reported 0.7% yoy decline during the month as compared to 7.0% growth in May
2013 owing to the 6.7% contraction in non-oil imports.
But negatively exports also declined by 4.1% yoy in June 2013 despite a 6.1% yoy
decline a year ago. In the medium-term, the sharp INR depreciation coupled with
improvement in global growth particularly in the U.S is expected to provide an
impetus to export growth to some extent.
The trade deficit for April June of 2013-14 is estimated at USD50.2bn, much
higher than the deficit of USD42.2bn during April June of 2012-13. Gold
imports constitute a large part of the increase in imports during this period owing
to their dip in prices. In terms of volumes, during the months of April and May
2013 gold imports came in at a massive 143 and 162 tonnes respectively. But this
was owing to front-ended demand as expected. Gold imports have already come
down to 31 tonnes in June 2013 and are likely to normalize going forward
particularly owing to sluggish investment demand.
Trade deficit for June 2013

Jun-13
May-13
Trade balance
Exports
Imports
Growth
Export
Import
Non oil
Oil
Apr-13
Mar-13
Feb-13
Jan-13
(12.2)
23.8
36.0
(20.1)
24.5
44.6
(17.8)
24.2
42.0
(9.8)
30.7
40.5
(14.7)
26.6
41.3
(20.0)
25.7
45.7
(4.6)
(0.4)
(6.7)
13.7
(1.1)
7.0
9.1
3.0
1.7
11.0
14.9
3.9
6.6
(4.3)
2.8
(16.1)
5.6
3.0
(3.2)
15.7
1.2
6.3
5.3
8.2
Market Outlook
July 15, 2013
IVRCL has bagged various orders worth ~`1,098cr

IVRCL said its building & factories division has bagged various orders worth
~`573cr. The company said that the water division of the company had bagged
three orders worth `472cr which a major order of `311cr by Orissa water supply
and sewerage board. The nature of work includes construction of sewers for
Bhubaneswar sewerage district-VI and the completion period is three years from
the start of the project. Also, the company has three bagged orders worth ~`53cr
in the power division. We continue to maintain our Buy rating on the stock with
target price of `29.
Result Review
Infosys (CMP: `2803/ TP: -/Upside: -)
Infosys reported a healthy set of results for 1QFY2014. Its dollar revenues grew by
2.7% qoq (against an estimate of 1.5% qoq) to US$1,991mn, aided by a 4.1%
qoq volume growth, led by recovery in application development and consulting
revenues. Pricing went down by 0.7% qoq due to negative cross currency
movement. The overall volume growth was robust at 4.1% qoq with a 5.8%
onsite volume growth and 3.3% offshore volume growth. In INR terms, revenue
came in at `11,267cr, up 7.8% qoq. The companys EBIT margin inched up
slightly by 9bp qoq to 23.6%, while EBITDA margin remained almost flat qoq at
26.5%. The gains from the rupees depreciation were offset by the negative impact
of wage hikes given to the Sales team from May 2013 of ~8% and onsite wage
hikes given in February 2013. The PAT came in at `2,374, down 0.8% qoq.
Infosys maintained its FY2014 USD revenue growth guidance at 6-10%, which is
encouraging, as against our expectation of the company reducing it down to 68%. We believe a healthy 1QFY2014 performance increases the probability of the
company achieving/beating the top end of the guidance. Post 1QFY2014 results,
Infosys requires ~1.4% CQGR for the remaining quarters to meet its upper end of
the guidance which we believe the company can possibly achieve. In INR terms,
the company has given revenue guidance of 13-17% (assuming USD/INR rate at
59.39). The Management commentary indicates that the environment remains
challenging and the company continues to see pricing pressure in large deals
coming in re-bid market space because of competitive intensity. Over FY201315E, we expect USD and INR revenue to grow at a CAGR of 9.2% and 12.6%,
respectively. The Management indicated that the company has given wage hikes of
~8% offshore and ~3% onsite from July 1, 2013 which will again impact the
operating margin negatively by ~300bp in 2QFY2014. Going ahead, we expect
the EBIT margin of Infosys to decline to 23.4% and 23.6% for FY2014 and
FY2015, respectively from 25.8% in FY2013. Considering Infosys current quarter
results as well as management commentary, it seems that some parts of Infosys'
new strategy are working, although numbers could remain volatile in the near
term. We value the stock at 15x FY2015E EPS of `189.4, which gives us a target
price of `2,820. We maintain our Neutral rating on the stock.
Market Outlook
July 15, 2013
Y/E
Sales OPM
March
(` cr)
(%)
PAT
EPS ROE
(` cr)
(`)
(%)
P/E P/BV
(x)
EV/EBITDA
EV/Sales
(x)
(x)
(x)
FY2014E
47,001 26.2
9,785 171.3 20.4 16.4
3.3
10.5
2.8
FY2015E
51,196 26.4
10,816 189.4 19.3 14.8
2.9
9.1
2.4
South Indian Bank - (CMP: `23 / TP: - / Upside: -)

SIB reported weak set of numbers during the quarter, as it reported a bottom line
de-growth of 6.7% yoy, which was lower than ours as well as streets estimates.
On the operating front, while NII grew at moderate pace of 10%, however,
boosted by treasury gains non-interest income grew strongly by 57%, leading to
healthy 21% yoy growth in operating profits. On the asset quality front, the bank
witnessed pressures, as its Gross NPA levels increased sequentially by 14%, while
net NPA levels increased by 40% qoq, in spite of higher provisioning during the
quarter (at `105cr compared to `66cr in 4QFY2013 and `25cr in 1QFY2013). At
the CMP, the stock is trading at 0.9x FY2015E ABV. We recommend a Neutral
rating on the stock.
Y/E
Op. Inc
NIM
PAT
EPS
ABV
RoA
RoE
P/E
P/ABV
(` cr)
(%)
(` cr)
(`)
(%)
(x)
(x)
(x)
(x)
FY2014E
1,795
2.8
530
4.0
23.7
1.0
17.2
5.8
1.0
FY2015E
2,054
2.8
578
4.3
27.0
0.9
16.5
5.4
0.9
March
Result Preview
Exide Industries (CMP: `124/ TP: `150/ Upside: 21%)
Exide Industries (EXID) is slated to announce its 1QFY2014 results today. We
expect EXID to register a modest revenue growth of ~4% yoy, with growth in
the automotive replacement market offsetting weak OEM sales. We expect
EBITDA margins to decline ~140bp yoy to 13.6% on account of increase in
lead prices (up ~5% yoy) and also due to increase in power costs and
distribution expenses, leading to an ~5% yoy decline in net profit to `145cr. At
`124, the stock is trading at 13.6x FY2015E earnings. Currently, we have a
Buy rating on the stock with a target price of `150.
Y/E
Sales
OPM
PAT
EPS
ROE
P/E
March
(` cr)
(%)
(` cr)
(`)
(%)
(x)
P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/Sales

(x)
(x)
(x)
FY2014E
7,053
14.2
666
7.8
18.1
15.8
2.7
8.5
1.2
FY2015E
8,061
14.5
776
9.1
18.2
13.6
2.3
7.0
1.0
Market Outlook
July 15, 2013
Quarterly Bloomberg Brokers Consensus Estimate

Exide Industries (15/07/2013)
Particulars (` cr)
1QFY14E
1QFY13
y-o-y (%)
4QFY13
q-o-q (%)
1,607
1,551
1,538
228
233
(2)
204
12
Net Sales
EBITDA
EBITDA margins (%)
13
14
15
146
152
(4)
146
1QFY14E
1QFY13
y-o-y (%)
4QFY13
q-o-q (%)
2,415
2,941
(18)
3,648
(34)
93
241
(61)
198
(53)
(60)
67
Net Profit
Ashok Leyland (16/07/2013)

Particulars (` cr)
Net Sales
EBITDA
EBITDA margins (%)
Net Profit
5
(190)
150
Economic and Political News
Economy turnaround likely from FY15: CII

12th Plan growth target may be cut to 7%-Planning commission
Will have to reassess our growth estimate: C Rangarajan
FIPB rejects four FDI proposals, Defers one
Corporate News
Tech M may buy Polraris IT services business

CG buyback delayed to meet Sebis revised norms
SKIL infra to sell `750cr non-core assets to repay loans
DGH refuses to approve RILs $3.5b NEC-25 gas production plan
House panel raps ICICI Bank for poor show on farm loans
Source: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint
(140)
Market Outlook
July 15, 2013
Result Calendar
Date
Company
July 15, 2013
Exide Industries
July 16, 2013
Ashok Leyland
July 17, 2013
HDFC Bank
July 18, 2013
TCS, Axis Bank, Kotak Mah. Bank, IDBI Bank, D B Corp, Rallis, Mindtree, Infotech Enterprises, Honeywell Automation
July 19, 2013
HDFC, Bajaj Auto, Federal Bank, CRISIL, UCO Bank, Hexaware, NIIT
July 20, 2013
HT Media
July 21, 2013

July 22, 2013
Larsen & Toubro, Asian Paints, Blue Star
July 23, 2013
Tata Sponge
July 24, 2013
Cairn India, Dabur India
July 25, 2013
Thermax, FAG Bearings, MRF
July 26, 2013
Nestle, CESC
July 27, 2013
Force Motors
July 28, 2013

July 29, 2013
IDFC, Colgate, Godrej Consumer, Subros, Vesuvius India
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Global economic events release calendar

Date
Time
Country Event Description
Unit
Period
Bloomberg Data
Last Reported Estimated
July 15, 2013
July 16, 2013
July 17, 2013
12:00PM
India
Monthly Wholesale Prices YoY%
% Change
Jun
4.70
--
7:30AM
China
Industrial Production (YoY)
% Change
Jun
9.20
9.10
7:30AM
China
Real GDP (YoY)
% Change
2Q
7.70
7.60
2:00PM
UK
CPI (YoY)
% Change
Jun
2.70
--
6:00PM
US
Consumer price index (mom)
% Change
Jun
0.10
--
2:30PM
Euro Zone Euro-Zone CPI (YoY)
Jun F
1.60
--
6:45PM
US
Industrial Production
Jun
0.04
--
6:00PM
US
Housing Starts
Thousands
Jun
914.00
--
6:00PM
US
Building permits
Thousands
Jun
985.00
--
% Change
Jun
(8.60)
--
Million
Jun
5.18
--
2:00PM
UK
Jobless claims change
July 22, 2013
7:30PM
US
Existing home sales
July 23, 2013
7:30PM
Euro Zone Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence
Value
Jul A
(18.80)
--
July 24, 2013
1:00PM
Germany PMI Services
Value
Jul A
50.40
--
1:00PM
Germany PMI Manufacturing
Value
Jul A
48.60
--
7:30PM
US
New home sales
Thousands
Jun
476.00
--
July 25, 2013
2:00PM
UK
GDP (YoY)
% Change
2Q A
0.30
--
July 30, 2013
7:30PM
US
Consumer Confidence
S.A./ 1985=100
Jul
81.40
--
11:00AM
India
RBI Repo rate
Jul 30
7.25
--
11:00AM
India
RBI Cash Reserve ratio
Jul 30
4.00
--
11:00AM
India
RBI Reverse Repo rate
Jul 30
6.25
--
Market Outlook
July 15, 2013
Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends
Exhibit 2: IIP trends
(%)
(%)
10.0
11.4
9.2
6.0
4.0
Apr-13
Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI

Mfg. PMI
58.0
7.5
Feb-13
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
(%)
8.0
(1.6)
Jan-13
Jun-12
4QFY13
3QFY13
2QFY13
1QFY13
4QFY12
3QFY12
2QFY12
1QFY12
4QFY11
3QFY11
2QFY11
1QFY11
4QFY10
3QFY10
(4.0)
(1.0) (0.6)
(0.7)
(2.0)
May-13
(0.1)
(2.0)
Exhibit 3: Monthly WPI inflation trends
Services PMI
8.1
7.3
7.3
7.2
7.3
7.3
56.0
5.7
4.9
4.7
54.0
52.0
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
May-13
Apr-13
Mar-13
Feb-13
Jan-13
Dec-12
Nov-12
Oct-12
Sep-12
Aug-12
Jul-12
Jun-12
May-12
Apr-12
Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion
Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends

(%)
48.0
Mar-12
May-13
Apr-13
Mar-13
Feb-13
Jan-13
Dec-12
Nov-12
Oct-12
Sep-12
Aug-12
50.0
Jul-12
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
0.6
Dec-12
4.7 4.8
Source: CSO, Angel Research
9.0
1.9
2.0
5.1 5.4 5.2
Nov-12
6.0
3.4
2.5
2.0
Oct-12
6.5
Mar-13
7.5
Sep-12
7.7
Aug-12
8.6
8.4
8.0
9.9
Jul-12
9.5
9.3
2QFY10
12.0
11.0
10.0
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
Exports yoy growth
Exhibit 6: Key policy rates

Repo rate
(%)
9.00
Imports yoy growth
15.0
Reverse Repo rate
CRR
8.00
7.00
6.00
Jun-13
May-13
Apr-13
Mar-13
Feb-13
Jan-13
Dec-12
Nov-12
Oct-12
Sep-12
Aug-12
Jul-12
0.0
5.00
4.00
Source: RBI, Angel Research
Jun-13
May-13
Apr-13
Mar-13
Feb-13
Jan-13
Dec-12
Nov-12
Oct-12
Sep-12
Aug-12
(15.0)
Jul-12
3.00
Market Outlook
July 15, 2013
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
Sales ( cr )
FY14E
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
Agri / Agri Chemical

Rallis
Neutral
156
3,032
1,657
1,906
14.1
14.1
7.7
8.9
20.3
17.5
4.2
3.6
22.2
21.9
1.8
1.5
United Phosphorus
Buy
143
232
6,347
10,298
11,310
16.5
16.5
20.5
23.2
7.0
6.2
1.2
1.0
18.0
17.4
0.6
0.5
Amara Raja Batteries
Accumulate
258
285
4,411
3,418
3,892
14.5
14.5
18.5
20.4
14.0
12.7
3.4
2.8
26.6
23.8
1.3
1.1
Apollo Tyres
Neutral
66
3,311
13,852
15,487
11.4
11.5
12.8
14.9
5.1
4.4
0.8
0.7
17.5
17.3
0.4
0.3
Ashok Leyland
Buy
18
27
4,763
14,038
16,442
7.6
8.7
1.1
2.2
17.1
8.0
1.5
1.3
6.2
12.5
0.4
0.3
Automotive Axle#
Neutral
219
331
834
965
9.3
10.6
17.3
27.1
12.7
8.1
1.2
1.1
9.5
14.0
0.5
0.4
Bajaj Auto
Accumulate
1,868
2,096
54,044
23,005
26,460
18.0
18.5
118.8
139.7
15.7
13.4
5.7
4.5
40.4
37.7
2.0
1.6
Bharat Forge
Neutral
226
5,259
6,198
6,793
14.6
14.9
14.5
17.3
15.5
13.1
2.0
1.8
13.6
14.7
1.0
0.8
Bosch India*
Accumulate
8,606
9,213
27,020
9,821
11,394
17.0
17.3
373.5
438.7
23.0
19.6
4.1
3.5
18.0
17.9
2.4
2.0
CEAT
Buy
112
170
384
5,325
5,974
8.4
8.3
40.8
48.5
2.8
2.3
0.4
0.4
17.3
17.6
0.2
0.2
Exide Industries
Accumulate
124
141
10,536
7,053
8,061
14.2
14.5
7.8
9.1
15.8
13.6
2.7
2.3
18.1
18.2
1.2
1.0
FAG Bearings*
Neutral
1,446
2,403
1,525
1,742
14.5
15.7
88.4
109.5
16.4
13.2
2.4
2.0
15.5
16.5
1.4
1.2
Hero Motocorp
Accumulate
1,709
1,820
34,117
25,298
27,665
14.1
13.7
110.3
140.0
15.5
12.2
5.6
4.4
39.9
40.7
1.1
1.0
JK Tyre
Buy
107
154
440
7,972
8,754
7.1
7.1
37.5
44.0
2.9
2.4
0.4
0.4
16.4
16.6
0.3
0.3
Auto & Auto Ancillary
Mahindra and Mahindra Buy
906
1,103
55,775
45,254
51,197
11.4
11.7
61.2
70.2
14.8
12.9
3.1
2.6
22.7
21.9
1.0
0.8
1,453
1,822
43,883
47,923
55,002
11.2
10.9
106.6
121.4
13.6
12.0
2.0
1.8
16.1
15.8
0.7
0.6
208
222
12,254
28,442
31,493
7.5
7.8
12.5
14.8
16.7
14.1
4.1
3.3
27.5
25.8
0.6
0.5
Buy
22
27
132
1,426
1,624
10.0
9.9
4.9
6.8
4.5
3.2
0.4
0.4
10.0
12.7
0.4
0.3
Tata Motors
Buy
292
347
78,654 215,016 237,404
13.3
13.6
36.2
41.5
8.1
7.0
1.8
1.5
24.6
23.2
0.4
0.4
TVS Motor
Accumulate
32
35
1,527
7,715
8,584
6.0
6.1
5.0
5.8
6.5
5.6
1.1
1.0
18.1
18.5
0.1
0.1
Maruti
Buy
Motherson Sumi
Accumulate
Subros
Capital Goods
ABB*
Sell
613
461
12,997
8,073
9,052
5.5
6.9
11.5
16.9
53.2
36.2
4.8
4.7
9.3
13.1
1.6
1.4
BGR Energy
Accumulate
124
140
892
3,756
4,569
11.4
9.7
21.7
24.1
5.7
5.1
0.7
0.6
22.3
20.3
0.6
0.5
BHEL
Neutral
188
45,978
44,054
39,326
16.8
15.1
20.6
16.1
9.1
11.7
2.0
1.8
23.5
16.1
0.9
1.0
Blue Star
Buy
156
230
1,403
2,896
3,087
5.6
6.2
9.3
11.7
16.8
13.3
2.8
2.4
17.6
19.2
0.6
0.5
Crompton Greaves
Buy
89
117
5,735
13,446
15,272
6.7
7.6
6.6
8.9
13.5
10.1
1.5
1.3
11.4
14.0
0.5
0.5
Jyoti Structures
Neutral
20
164
3,360
3,597
9.7
9.8
7.3
10.2
2.7
2.0
0.6
0.5
8.8
11.4
0.3
0.3
KEC International
Buy
34
49
882
7,709
8,399
6.7
7.2
6.1
8.5
5.7
4.0
0.7
0.6
20.2
23.0
0.3
0.3
Thermax
Neutral
599
7,134
5,780
6,430
9.5
9.6
29.8
33.0
20.1
18.1
3.4
3.0
17.9
17.4
1.0
0.9
1,242
1,361
23,326
11,820
13,254
19.3
20.9
74.9
93.1
16.6
13.4
2.9
2.6
18.1
20.3
1.7
1.4
Cement
ACC
Accumulate
Market Outlook
July 15, 2013
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
Cement
Ambuja Cements
Neutral
197
30,377
10,171
11,762
23.5
24.6
10.2
12.2
19.3
16.1
3.2
2.9
17.1
18.7
2.5
2.0
India Cements
Neutral
56
1,713
4,929
5,434
17.4
17.1
8.9
10.9
6.3
5.1
0.5
0.5
7.7
9.1
0.7
0.6
J K Lakshmi Cement
Buy
84
143
983
2,247
2,742
21.0
23.1
17.8
21.8
4.7
3.8
0.7
0.6
15.5
16.4
0.3
0.8
Madras Cements
Neutral
214
5,102
4,234
4,788
23.9
24.0
18.5
22.8
11.6
9.4
1.9
1.6
17.2
18.2
1.6
1.3
Shree Cement^
Neutral
4,532
15,788
6,607
7,520
27.5
26.7
322.8
374.3
14.0
12.1
3.5
2.8
27.8
25.6
1.7
1.3
UltraTech Cement
Neutral
1,941
53,221
21,947
25,049
23.8
23.8
106.1
119.8
18.3
16.2
3.0
2.6
17.7
17.3
2.5
2.2
54
84
851
1,928
2,234
21.0
21.5
6.0
7.4
9.0
7.3
0.8
0.8
10.5
10.8
1.8
1.8
169
1,715
1,824
2.4
6.2
(2.9)
(0.4)
(3.1)
(25.3)
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.5
Construction
Ashoka Buildcon
Buy
Consolidated Co
Neutral
IRB Infra
Buy
100
157
3,337
3,997
4,312
45.5
46.4
15.7
16.6
6.4
6.0
0.9
0.8
15.2
14.5
3.3
3.5
ITNL
Buy
149
230
2,885
7,444
8,041
27.4
28.9
29.8
32.1
5.0
4.6
0.7
0.6
14.9
14.2
2.5
2.5
IVRCL Infra
Buy
16
29
499
5,673
5,892
8.1
8.4
1.4
1.8
11.3
8.9
0.2
0.2
2.0
2.6
0.5
0.5
Jaiprakash Asso.
Buy
52
90
11,628
14,850
15,631
24.9
25.1
2.5
2.9
20.7
18.4
0.8
0.8
4.2
4.7
2.6
2.5
Larsen & Toubro
Buy
994
1,180
91,943
68,946
78,040
10.5
10.5
51.7
58.6
19.3
17.0
2.9
2.6
15.5
15.6
1.5
1.3
Nagarjuna Const.
Buy
28
42
730
6,167
6,945
8.0
8.2
2.7
3.6
10.7
7.8
0.3
0.3
2.7
3.6
0.5
0.4
Punj Lloyd
Neutral
32
1,069
12,954
14,740
9.9
9.9
0.5
0.9
63.4
34.6
0.4
0.4
0.6
1.1
0.5
0.5
Sadbhav Engg.
Buy
88
139
1,324
2,462
2,731
10.6
10.6
5.9
6.7
14.9
13.2
1.5
1.3
10.2
10.5
0.8
0.8
Simplex Infra
Buy
83
131
411
6,308
7,033
9.5
9.6
11.9
18.7
7.0
4.4
0.3
0.3
4.5
6.7
0.5
0.5
Unity Infra
Buy
25
41
185
2,146
2,339
13.7
13.8
11.0
11.5
2.3
2.2
0.2
0.2
9.3
9.0
0.6
0.6
Allahabad Bank
Buy
90
123
4,515
6,705
7,535
2.5
2.5
27.6
33.2
3.3
2.7
0.5
0.4
12.5
13.6
Andhra Bank
Neutral
81
4,535
5,195
5,834
2.7
2.7
19.2
23.1
4.2
3.5
0.6
0.5
12.2
13.3
Axis Bank
Buy
1,290
1,778
60,483
19,237
23,261
3.2
3.2
133.8
161.5
9.6
8.0
1.6
1.4
17.6
18.5
Bank of Baroda
Buy
569
761
23,955
16,287
18,707
2.2
2.3
120.6
144.6
4.7
3.9
0.7
0.6
15.0
16.0
Bank of India
Buy
227
270
13,554
14,459
16,176
2.3
2.2
55.2
68.2
4.1
3.3
0.6
0.5
13.7
15.1
Bank of Maharashtra
Buy
50
61
3,291
4,291
4,724
3.0
3.0
12.1
12.9
4.1
3.9
0.6
0.6
16.2
15.3
Canara Bank
Buy
354
423
15,680
12,045
13,495
2.1
2.2
76.7
86.4
4.6
4.1
0.7
0.6
14.1
14.2
Central Bank
Accumulate
63
69
6,628
8,406
9,546
2.5
2.5
12.6
18.7
5.1
3.4
0.6
0.6
10.6
14.3
Corporation Bank
Buy
345
436
5,268
5,554
6,156
2.0
2.0
94.9
104.9
3.6
3.3
0.5
0.5
14.3
14.2
Dena Bank
Accumulate
69
79
2,417
3,255
3,623
2.3
2.4
22.0
24.9
3.1
2.8
0.5
0.4
14.7
14.7
Federal Bank
Accumulate
397
455
6,780
2,802
3,275
2.9
2.9
49.8
56.6
8.0
7.0
1.0
0.9
12.7
13.1
Financials
Market Outlook
July 15, 2013
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
Financials
HDFC
Accumulate
850
904
132,077
8,573
10,142
3.6
3.6
37.0
43.6
23.0
19.5
4.7
4.2
30.0
30.3
HDFC Bank
Accumulate
694
752
165,874
27,560
33,766
4.6
4.6
36.3
45.1
19.1
15.4
3.9
3.2
21.9
22.8
ICICI Bank
Buy
1,062
1,454
122,558
26,119
30,474
3.1
3.2
86.2
99.5
12.3
10.7
1.7
1.5
15.7
16.2
IDBI Bank
Accumulate
73
80
9,709
9,416
10,392
2.0
2.0
19.8
22.8
3.7
3.2
0.5
0.4
12.9
13.5
Indian Bank
Buy
107
141
4,607
6,077
6,845
2.9
3.0
35.2
41.0
3.1
2.6
0.4
0.4
14.1
14.8
IOB
Accumulate
49
53
4,537
8,028
9,204
2.4
2.6
12.5
19.7
3.9
2.5
0.4
0.3
9.1
13.1
J & K Bank
Accumulate
1,239
1,315
6,008
3,101
3,427
3.6
3.6
215.5
210.3
5.8
5.9
1.1
0.9
19.9
16.9
LIC Housing Finance
Buy
235
298
11,855
2,113
2,525
2.3
2.3
25.4
29.2
9.3
8.0
1.6
1.4
18.4
18.3
Oriental Bank
Buy
197
239
5,737
6,790
7,676
2.6
2.7
55.7
62.3
3.5
3.2
0.5
0.4
12.8
12.9
Punjab Natl.Bank
Buy
633
883
22,371
20,914
23,879
3.3
3.4
152.4
176.2
4.2
3.6
0.7
0.6
16.2
16.5
South Ind.Bank
Neutral
23
3,096
1,795
2,054
2.8
2.8
4.0
4.3
5.8
5.4
1.0
0.9
17.2
16.5
St Bk of India
Buy
1,893
2,518
129,515
66,417
76,734
3.0
3.0
227.4
284.8
8.3
6.7
1.2
1.1
15.4
17.1
Syndicate Bank
Buy
115
136
6,910
7,125
8,188
2.6
2.6
27.4
27.9
4.2
4.1
0.6
0.6
16.2
14.6
UCO Bank
Reduce
67
63
5,061
6,545
6,859
2.7
2.6
14.8
15.7
4.6
4.3
0.8
0.7
14.4
13.6
Union Bank
Buy
175
243
10,465
11,101
12,543
2.6
2.6
39.3
47.4
4.5
3.7
0.6
0.5
14.1
15.2
United Bank
Buy
47
58
1,754
3,386
3,884
2.3
2.5
12.4
20.0
3.8
2.3
0.4
0.4
10.0
14.7
Vijaya Bank
Accumulate
46
49
2,282
2,714
3,046
1.9
2.0
9.2
10.8
5.0
4.3
0.5
0.5
10.7
11.5
Yes Bank
Neutral
490
17,614
4,451
5,526
2.8
2.8
43.0
49.7
11.4
9.8
2.5
2.1
23.9
22.8
Asian Paints
Neutral
4,825
46,280
12,332
14,524
16.5
16.3
141.6
162.7
34.1
29.7
10.8
8.6
35.4
32.2
3.6
3.0
Britannia
Neutral
680
8,136
6,417
7,502
6.1
6.3
21.3
25.5
32.0
26.7
10.4
8.3
35.7
34.6
1.3
1.0
Colgate
Neutral
1,410
19,180
3,588
4,130
20.5
20.9
44.2
51.8
31.9
27.3
31.1
22.7
108.6
96.2
5.2
4.4
Dabur India
Neutral
158
27,584
7,183
8,340
16.8
16.8
5.4
6.3
29.5
25.2
11.5
8.9
41.5
40.1
3.8
3.2
GlaxoSmith Con*
Neutral
4,687
19,711
3,617
4,259
16.1
16.4
122.2
148.7
38.4
31.5
11.9
9.6
34.1
33.7
5.0
4.2
Godrej Consumer
Neutral
849
28,909
7,801
9,017
16.2
15.9
25.1
29.7
33.8
28.6
7.3
6.1
24.9
24.2
3.8
3.3
HUL
Neutral
601
130,051
29,167
33,164
13.6
13.7
17.1
18.4
35.2
32.7
33.8
24.5
113.4
87.0
4.3
3.8
ITC
Neutral
350
276,406
34,294
39,991
36.8
37.0
11.3
13.3
31.0
26.2
10.2
8.3
36.1
34.9
7.7
6.6
Marico
Neutral
209
13,461
5,273
6,044
14.8
14.9
7.3
8.7
28.8
24.1
5.6
4.6
21.4
21.0
2.6
2.2
Nestle*
Neutral
5,400
52,060
9,447
10,968
22.1
22.3
127.5
154.1
42.4
35.0
21.2
15.3
57.7
50.7
5.5
4.7
Tata Global
Neutral
148
9,128
8,069
8,957
9.8
9.7
7.8
8.6
18.9
17.2
2.3
2.2
9.5
9.7
1.1
1.0
FMCG
Market Outlook
July 15, 2013
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
860
59,938
29,424
32,837
22.6
22.0
59.5
63.3
14.5
13.6
3.5
2.9
24.6
21.7
1.9
1.6
97
105
2,888
2,158
2,374
19.6
19.8
10.7
11.7
9.0
8.2
2.0
1.8
23.0
22.3
1.2
1.0
IT
HCL Tech^
Neutral
Hexaware*
Accumulate
Infosys
Reduce
2,803
2,530
160,944
45,153
48,993
27.6
26.8
170.7
187.5
16.4
15.0
3.4
2.9
20.8
19.5
2.9
2.6
Infotech Enterprises
Neutral
183
2,043
2,037
2,254
17.9
17.7
21.2
22.6
8.7
8.1
1.3
1.1
15.2
14.1
0.6
0.5
KPIT Cummins
Accumulate
127
144
2,455
2,614
2,923
17.2
16.8
13.2
14.4
9.7
8.8
1.7
1.4
18.5
16.7
0.9
0.7
Mindtree
Neutral
911
3,784
2,707
2,978
20.3
20.2
87.4
97.0
10.4
9.4
2.2
1.8
21.8
19.5
1.1
0.9
Mphasis&
Reduce
413
391
8,669
6,372
6,852
18.0
18.2
38.0
43.5
10.9
9.5
1.6
1.4
14.3
14.2
0.9
0.7
NIIT
Buy
19
30
313
1,144
1,267
9.0
9.1
4.3
5.4
4.4
3.5
0.5
0.4
10.3
12.0
0.1
Persistent
Accumulate
512
565
2,049
1,505
1,677
25.9
26.2
53.6
59.7
9.6
8.6
1.7
1.4
17.7
16.7
1.0
0.8
TCS
Neutral
1,606
314,349
74,795
84,926
28.8
28.7
82.2
91.5
19.5
17.6
6.0
4.9
30.8
28.1
4.0
3.4
Tech Mahindra
Accumulate
1,122
1,250
26,064
8,102
8,709
19.7
19.2
93.7
101.5
12.0
11.1
2.2
1.8
21.2
18.9
3.2
2.9
Wipro
Neutral
376
92,528
41,659
45,137
21.2
21.4
27.7
29.9
13.6
12.6
2.8
2.4
20.5
19.0
1.7
1.5
D B Corp
Buy
240
290
4,409
1,750
1,925
25.1
26.6
14.2
16.8
16.9
14.3
3.7
3.1
23.4
23.4
2.4
2.1
HT Media
Buy
96
117
2,252
2,205
2,380
15.1
15.6
8.3
9.1
11.6
10.5
1.3
1.1
11.5
11.4
0.7
0.6
Jagran Prakashan
Buy
86
107
2,864
1,664
1,825
20.9
23.0
6.4
7.8
13.4
11.1
2.7
2.4
21.0
23.1
1.8
1.6
PVR
Neutral
334
1,324
1,359
1,540
17.3
17.4
17.2
21.6
19.4
15.5
1.9
1.8
10.3
12.0
1.4
1.2
Sun TV Network
Neutral
414
16,331
2,287
2,551
69.7
70.5
20.0
23.3
20.7
17.8
5.1
4.5
26.4
27.3
6.8
6.0
Bhushan Steel
Neutral
465
10,526
13,794
17,088
30.9
33.5
49.3
66.6
9.4
7.0
1.0
0.9
11.3
13.5
2.4
1.9
Coal India
Accumulate
300
345
189,491
72,174
76,311
33.3
28.4
28.4
30.9
10.6
9.7
2.9
2.5
37.6
36.2
1.8
1.6
Electrosteel Castings
Buy
13
18
424
1,976
2,017
11.8
12.7
1.3
2.6
10.3
5.0
0.1
0.1
2.6
5.2
0.5
0.1
GMDC
Buy
108
155
3,444
1,920
2,239
53.2
52.9
21.6
25.0
5.0
4.3
1.1
0.9
25.1
23.8
1.3
0.9
Hind. Zinc
Buy
105
145
44,218
12,358
13,659
51.4
51.6
16.0
17.6
6.5
5.9
1.2
1.0
19.4
18.4
1.3
0.8
Hindalco
Neutral
102
19,462
89,352
93,672
8.8
9.2
13.4
15.0
7.6
6.8
0.5
0.5
7.3
7.6
0.6
0.5
JSW Steel
Neutral
602
14,548
47,613
48,385
17.4
18.8
81.8
109.6
7.4
5.5
0.8
0.7
11.1
13.4
0.6
0.5
MOIL
Buy
196
248
3,299
1,010
1,046
46.5
47.6
26.8
28.8
7.3
6.8
1.1
1.0
15.4
14.7
0.9
0.6
Monnet Ispat
Buy
120
193
767
2,326
2,709
21.4
23.1
33.3
43.1
3.6
2.8
0.3
0.3
8.3
9.9
1.3
1.0
Nalco
Neutral
NMDC
Buy
SAIL
Neutral
Media
Metals & Mining
30
7,642
7,656
7,988
13.1
13.5
2.6
2.6
11.6
11.3
0.6
0.6
5.5
5.5
0.4
0.5
107
140
42,442
10,610
11,400
66.3
64.2
15.6
16.1
6.9
6.7
1.4
1.3
21.3
19.9
1.9
1.7
48
19,618
44,060
54,786
9.4
11.5
5.2
7.2
9.1
6.6
0.5
0.5
5.2
6.8
0.7
0.6
Market Outlook
July 15, 2013
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
Sales ( cr )
FY14E
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
Metals & Mining

Sesa Goa
Accumulate
152
166
13,176
3,742
4,426
32.9
32.8
30.0
29.8
5.1
5.1
0.7
0.6
14.3
12.5
4.3
3.6
Sterlite Inds
Accumulate
88
100
29,675
44,462
45,568
23.2
24.7
18.1
20.2
4.9
4.4
0.5
0.5
11.3
11.4
0.6
0.5
Tata Steel
Buy
263
378
25,524 140,917 151,537
9.7
10.8
30.9
47.6
8.5
5.5
0.8
0.7
9.6
13.4
0.6
0.5
Sarda
Buy
97
153
348
1,494
1,568
19.1
20.3
31.3
36.5
3.1
2.7
0.4
0.3
11.8
12.4
0.6
0.5
Prakash Industries
Godawari Power and
Ispat
Oil & Gas
Buy
30
40
410
2,615
2,776
12.1
12.0
9.8
10.4
3.1
2.9
0.2
0.2
6.5
6.5
0.4
0.4
Buy
75
102
245
2,344
2,509
14.9
15.4
38.7
47.0
1.9
1.6
0.2
0.2
12.3
12.9
0.5
0.4
Cairn India
Buy
291
345
55,618
16,482
16,228
69.4
53.3
53.3
49.6
5.5
5.9
0.8
0.8
16.5
13.6
2.0
1.7
GAIL
Neutral
322
40,820
52,102
52,876
15.7
16.1
34.1
35.7
9.4
9.0
1.5
1.3
16.4
15.3
0.3
0.2
ONGC
Buy
296
387
253,499 170,063 198,461
36.3
38.3
34.7
41.9
8.6
7.1
1.5
1.3
18.3
19.5
1.2
0.9
Reliance Industries
Neutral
890
287,290 397,546 421,695
9.4
8.6
75.0
76.4
11.9
11.7
1.3
1.2
12.4
11.4
0.7
0.6
Gujarat Gas*
Neutral
197
2,521
3,707
3,850
11.7
12.4
23.7
25.7
8.3
7.7
2.3
2.0
29.6
28.2
0.6
0.5
Indraprastha Gas
Neutral
289
4,047
3,700
4,218
23.4
22.8
26.7
30.4
10.9
9.5
2.3
1.9
22.7
21.8
1.2
1.0
Petronet LNG
Gujarat State Petronet
Ltd.
Pharmaceuticals
Buy
128
167
9,619
40,356
40,872
5.8
6.4
15.0
16.7
8.6
7.7
1.8
1.5
23.0
21.5
0.3
0.3
Neutral
58
3,269
1,171
1,287
91.9
91.9
10.1
11.3
5.8
5.1
0.9
0.8
17.3
16.8
Alembic Pharma
Reduce
159
139
3,006
1,736
2,008
17.1
18.9
10.7
13.9
14.9
11.5
4.7
3.5
35.0
34.7
1.8
1.5
Aurobindo Pharma
Buy
191
271
5,571
6,641
7,637
15.9
15.9
17.3
20.6
11.1
9.3
1.8
1.5
19.5
18.9
1.3
1.1
Aventis*
Neutral
2,440
5,619
1,682
1,917
16.6
16.6
92.4
99.1
26.4
24.6
3.7
3.7
15.7
14.8
3.0
2.4
Cadila Healthcare
Buy
781
929
15,985
7,280
8,640
15.5
15.7
38.3
46.5
20.4
16.8
4.4
3.6
23.5
23.5
2.5
2.1
Cipla
Buy
405
477
32,518
9,274
10,796
23.1
23.1
21.0
23.8
19.3
17.0
3.1
2.7
17.2
16.8
3.2
2.7
Dr Reddy's
Accumulate
2,350
2,535
39,947
13,377
15,350
20.4
20.1
112.3
126.8
20.9
18.5
4.5
3.7
23.5
21.8
3.1
2.7
Dishman Pharma
Buy
64
168
515
1,394
1,534
22.5
22.4
15.0
16.8
4.3
3.8
0.5
0.4
11.0
11.2
1.0
0.8
GSK Pharma*
Neutral
2,551
21,606
2,854
3,145
28.6
28.6
76.6
83.3
33.3
30.6
10.0
9.1
31.1
31.0
6.7
6.0
Indoco Remedies
Accumulate
71
78
654
760
922
15.3
15.3
6.1
7.8
11.6
9.1
1.4
1.3
12.9
14.7
1.1
0.9
Ipca labs
Neutral
694
8,757
3,243
3,826
20.5
21.5
36.0
44.4
19.3
15.6
4.5
3.6
26.0
25.4
2.8
2.4
Lupin
Neutral
869
38,886
11,641
13,933
21.3
21.3
34.8
41.8
25.0
20.8
5.8
4.6
26.2
24.8
3.4
2.8
Ranbaxy*
Accumulate
338
384
14,309
11,400
12,060
10.5
12.5
17.5
22.5
19.3
15.0
3.1
2.7
17.0
19.1
1.2
1.1
Sun Pharma
Neutral
1,108
114,591
13,509
15,846
41.0
41.0
33.0
39.8
33.6
27.9
6.8
5.6
22.0
22.0
7.9
6.6
Power
GIPCL
Buy
NTPC
Accumulate
67
78
1,018
1,444
1,482
33.4
33.0
13.7
14.8
4.9
4.6
0.6
0.5
12.3
12.0
0.8
0.5
146
163
120,466
76,734
86,680
24.5
24.3
13.4
14.5
10.9
10.1
1.3
1.2
12.8
12.7
2.3
2.1
Market Outlook
July 15, 2013
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
EV/Sales(x)
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
Real Estate
DLF
Buy
177
236
31,492
8,293
9,622
36.5
36.1
5.7
6.7
31.0
26.3
1.1
1.1
3.7
4.1
5.9
4.9
MLIFE
Accumulate
440
476
1,798
888
1,002
30.6
30.6
38.8
43.4
11.3
10.1
1.3
1.2
11.2
11.4
2.6
2.3
Bharti Airtel
Accumulate
305
321
121,901
85,489
94,229
31.9
31.9
10.2
14.6
29.8
20.9
2.2
2.0
7.2
9.4
2.1
1.8
Idea Cellular
Neutral
146
48,258
25,640
28,459
26.9
27.2
4.0
4.9
36.3
29.4
3.1
2.8
8.4
9.4
2.3
2.0
Rcom
Neutral
144
29,701
22,751
24,628
30.9
31.3
3.4
5.3
42.0
27.3
0.9
0.9
2.1
3.1
2.9
2.5
Telecom
Others
Abbott India*
Buy
1,439
1,659
3,058
1,863
2,081
11.8
12.4
71.2
83.0
20.2
17.4
4.1
3.5
21.6
21.5
1.4
1.1
Bajaj Electricals
Buy
192
237
1,913
3,885
4,472
5.4
7.2
11.0
19.7
17.5
9.7
2.4
2.0
13.5
20.3
0.5
0.4
Cera Sanitaryware
Accumulate
504
562
637
630
795
14.4
13.6
42.8
51.1
11.8
9.9
2.8
2.2
26.6
25.2
1.0
0.8
Cravatex
Buy
280
459
72
248
284
6.5
7.3
27.2
38.2
10.3
7.3
1.6
1.4
15.7
18.5
0.5
0.4
Finolex Cables
Buy
54
68
832
2,563
2,899
9.8
9.8
10.1
11.3
5.4
4.8
0.8
0.7
14.3
13.8
0.2
0.2
Force Motors
Buy
250
437
326
2,304
2,649
3.1
3.6
28.0
43.7
8.9
5.7
0.3
0.3
3.1
4.7
0.1
0.1
Goodyear India*
Accumulate
308
345
711
1,458
1,542
8.3
9.0
32.3
37.0
9.6
8.3
1.7
1.5
19.5
19.3
0.3
0.3
Hitachi
Buy
124
177
336
1,053
1,169
6.3
7.1
13.8
17.7
9.0
7.0
1.3
1.1
15.0
16.7
0.4
0.3
Honeywell Automation* Neutral
2,430
2,148
1,842
2,131
7.7
7.8
112.4
132.4
21.6
18.4
2.7
2.4
13.3
13.8
1.1
0.9
IFB Agro
Buy
148
198
133
495
651
12.7
12.9
29.3
39.5
5.0
3.7
0.7
0.6
15.4
17.6
0.4
0.3
ITD Cementation
Buy
137
234
157
1,430
1,573
11.1
11.0
19.1
26.9
7.2
5.1
0.4
0.4
5.4
7.1
0.5
0.5
Jyothy Laboratories
Accumulate
180
199
2,981
1,220
1,476
13.3
13.6
5.5
9.0
32.6
19.9
3.8
3.3
12.1
17.7
2.8
2.2
MRF
Accumulate
12,604
14,416
5,345
11,799
12,587
14.1
13.5 1,792.4 1,802.0
7.0
7.0
1.5
1.2
23.5
19.2
0.5
0.5
Page Industries
Neutral
4,402
4,910
1,057
1,282
19.4
19.6
124.8
153.7
35.3
28.6
17.5
12.9
56.3
51.8
4.7
3.9
Relaxo Footwears
Accumulate
744
791
893
1,146
1,333
10.9
11.4
45.9
60.9
16.2
12.2
3.4
2.7
23.0
24.6
0.9
0.8
Siyaram Silk Mills
Buy
241
343
226
1,158
1,322
11.9
11.9
72.9
85.7
3.3
2.8
0.6
0.5
19.9
19.6
0.4
0.4
Styrolution ABS India*
Buy
414
617
728
1,068
1,223
9.6
9.6
38.1
44.1
10.9
9.4
1.5
1.3
14.5
14.7
0.7
0.6
TAJ GVK
Buy
59
108
368
300
319
35.8
36.2
7.9
9.1
7.4
6.5
1.0
0.9
13.9
14.4
1.5
1.3
Tata Sponge Iron
Buy
268
371
413
814
849
17.0
17.6
64.6
69.2
4.2
3.9
0.6
0.5
14.5
13.8
0.1
(0.1)
TTK Healthcare
Buy
537
686
417
435
516
6.2
7.1
24.3
33.3
22.1
16.2
3.6
3.1
17.6
20.8
0.8
0.7
Tree House
Accumulate
282
297
1,013
153
194
53.0
52.8
12.4
15.6
22.7
18.0
2.7
2.4
11.8
13.1
6.8
5.2
TVS Srichakra
Buy
United Spirits
Neutral
Vesuvius India*
Buy
174
230
133
1,591
1,720
6.1
6.4
24.5
38.3
7.1
4.5
0.8
0.7
10.9
15.9
0.3
0.3
2,666
38,751
12,294
14,162
12.0
12.0
42.1
67.7
63.3
39.4
4.5
4.0
9.1
10.7
3.5
3.0
365
439
741
600
638
20.1
19.4
35.7
36.6
10.2
10.0
1.8
1.6
19.4
17.1
1.0
0.9
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on July 12, 2013
Market Outlook
July 15, 2013

Market Outlook: Dealer's Diary

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Market Outlook

July 15, 2013

OIL & GAS

IIP continues to disappoint with decline in 1.6%

Net Inflows (July 11, 2013)

FII Derivatives (July 12, 2013)

Refer detailed news analysis on the following page

IIP continues to disappoint

Some respite on trade deficit, narrows to USD12.2bn in June

Trade deficit for June 2013

IVRCL has bagged various orders worth ~`1,098cr

9,785 171.3 20.4 16.4

10,816 189.4 19.3 14.8

South Indian Bank - (CMP: `23 / TP: - / Upside: -)

P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/Sales

Quarterly Bloomberg Brokers Consensus Estimate

Ashok Leyland (16/07/2013)

Economic and Political News

Economy turnaround likely from FY15: CII

Tech M may buy Polraris IT services business

July 15, 2013

July 16, 2013

July 17, 2013

July 18, 2013

July 19, 2013

July 20, 2013

July 21, 2013

Larsen & Toubro, Asian Paints, Blue Star

July 23, 2013

July 24, 2013

Cairn India, Dabur India

July 25, 2013

Thermax, FAG Bearings, MRF

July 26, 2013

July 27, 2013

July 28, 2013

IDFC, Colgate, Godrej Consumer, Subros, Vesuvius India

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

Global economic events release calendar

Country Event Description

July 15, 2013

July 16, 2013

July 17, 2013

Monthly Wholesale Prices YoY%

Industrial Production (YoY)

Real GDP (YoY)

Consumer price index (mom)

Euro Zone Euro-Zone CPI (YoY)

Jobless claims change

July 22, 2013

Existing home sales

July 23, 2013

Euro Zone Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence

July 24, 2013

Germany PMI Services

Germany PMI Manufacturing

New home sales

July 25, 2013

July 30, 2013

RBI Repo rate

RBI Cash Reserve ratio

RBI Reverse Repo rate