Currencies Daily Report

Monday| July 15, 2013

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Reena Rohit Chief Manager Non-Agri Commodities and Currencies Reena.rohit@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6134 Anish Vyas Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Currencies Daily Report

Monday| July 15, 2013

Highlights
US Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment fell to 83.9-mark mark in July. Indias Industrial Production declined by 1.6 percent in last month. Chinas GDP grew at slow rate of 7.5 percent in Q2 of 2013 2013. Asian markets are trading higher today on the back of economic growth in Chinese economy as per the forecast. Japanese markets closed today on eve of Marine Day. US Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.8 percent in June as against a rise of 0.5 percent in May. Core PPI rose by 0.2 percent in June from earlier increase of 0.1 percent a month ago. Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment fell by 0.2 points to 83.9-mark mark in July with respect to rise of 84.1-level in June. Indias Industrial Production declined by 1.6 percent in June as against a rise of 2 percent in May. Manufacturing Output fell by 2 percent in June from earlier rise of 2.8 percent a month ago. Chinas Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew at slow rate of 7.5 percent in Q2 of 2013 as against a rise of 7.7 percent in Q1 of 2013. Industrial Production also grew at slow pace of 8.9 percent in June with respect to rise of 9.2 percent a month ago.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last Prev. day

as on July 12, 2013 WoW MoM YoY

NIFTY SENSEX DJIA S&P FTSE KOSPI BOVESPA NIKKEI Nymex Crude (Aug13) - $/bbl Comex Gold (Aug13) - $/oz Comex Silver(Sept13) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne CRB Index (Industrial) G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% - Yield

6009.0 19958.5 15464.3 1680.2 1959.2 58497.8 14506.3 105.95 1277.80 19.78

1.2 1.4 0.0 0.3 -1.5 0.2 0.6 1.0 -0.2 -0.8 -

2.4 2.4 2.2 3.0

4.3 4.8 2.6 4.2 -

14.8 9.1 23.0 25.9 2.0 7.7 66.3 23.1 -18.3 -27.7

6.9 27.8 -0.1 2.6 3.5 4.0

4.0 19.2 9.5 8.3 -7.6 -9.1

US Dollar Index
The US Dollar Index (DX) declined around nd 1.8 percent in the last week on the back of statement from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke that US economy needs more accommodative policy and will continue with is stimulus measures. Further, rise in risk sentiments in global markets also exert exerted downside pressure on the currency. The DX touched a weekly low of 82.60 and closed at 83.163 on Friday.

6953.25 102.09

-0.7 0.0 -

2.7

-11.4 -

-9.9 2.1

4.6

3.1

Source: Reuters

US Dollar (% change)
Last Prev. day WoW

as on July 12, 2013 MoM YoY

Dollar/INR
On a weekly basis, The Indian Rupee appreciated 0.6 percent on the back of measures taken by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) along with increase in margin by the Securities Exchange Board of India (SEBI). Additionally, upbeat global and domestic markets coupled with weakness in the DX after the Fed comments supported an upside in the currency. However, sharp upside in the currency was capped on account of dollar demand from importers and oil firms. The currency touched a weekly high of 59.32 and closed at 59.88 on Friday. For the month of July 2013, FII outflows totaled at Rs.290.30 crores th ($46.10 million) as on 12 July 2013. Year to date basis, net capital th inflows stood at Rs.71,887.90 crores ($13,454.70 million) till 12 July 2013. Outlook From the intra-day day perspective, we expect the Rupee to depreciate on account of forecast of increase in inflation numbers. Further, decline in industrial production and manufacturing data on Friday after market hours will put downside pressure on the currency. However, sharp downside in currency will be cushioned as a result of any measures announced nced by RBI in its meeting today with oil importers.

Dollar Index US $ / INR (Spot) US $ / INR July13 Futures (NSE) US $ / INR July13 Futures (MCX-SX)

83.16 59.88 60.10 60.10

0.3 -0.1 0.37 0.36

-1.8 0.6 -0.76 -0.77

3.1 -3.6 3.78 3.77

4.7 -7.9 7.27 7.27

Technical Chart USD/INR

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Trend US Dollar/INR July13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways

valid for July 15, 2013 Support 59.90/59.70 Resistance 60.30/60.50

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Currencies Daily Report

Monday| July 15, 2013

Euro/INR
The Euro appreciated around 1.8 percent in the last week on the back of sharp fall in the DX. Further, upbeat global markets also supported an upside in the currency. Additionally, favorable economic data from the region acted as a positive factor. The Euro touched a weekly high of 1.3201 and closed at 1.3066 against the dollar on Friday. European Industrial Production declined by 0.3 percent in May as against a rise of 0.5 percent a month ago. Outlook In todays session, we expect the Euro to trade higher on the back of upbeat global markets. Further, weakness in the DX will also support an upside in the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR July13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up 78.10/77.80 78.60/78.90 valid for July 15, 2013 Support Resistance

Euro (% change)
Last Prev. day

as on July 12, 2013 WoW MoM YoY

Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR July 13 Futures (NSE) Euro / INR July13 Futures (MCX-SX)

1.3066 78.24 78.3 78.3

-0.2 0.1 0.14 0.15

1.8 -1.3 0.49 0.47

-2.0 -1.5 1.91 1.93

6.7 -13.7 14.82 14.84

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Euro

Source: Telequote

GBP/INR
On a weekly basis, The Sterling Pound appreciated around 1.3 percent taking cues from weakness in the DX. Further, rise in risk appetite in the global markets supported an upside in the currency. However, weak economic data from the country prevented further gains in the currency. The Sterling Pound touched a weekly high of 1.5222 and closed at 1.5105 against dollar on Friday. UKs Conference Board (CB) Leading Index increased by 0.4 percent in May from rise of 0.2 percent a month ago. Outlook We expect the Sterling Pound to trade on n a positive note on the back of upbeat global markets. Further, weakness in the DX will act as a positive factor for the Pound. Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR July 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways valid for July 15, 2013 Support 90.20/89.80 Resistance 90.70/91.20

GBP (% change)

as on July 12, 2013

Last

Prev. day

WoW

MoM

YoY

$ / GBP (Spot) GBP / INR (Spot) GBP / INR July13 Futures (NSE) GBP / INR July 13 Futures (MCX-SX)

1.5105 90.478 90.70

-0.51 0.51 -0.33 0.33 0.22

1.5 0.87 0.03

-3.6 -0.27 0.14

-3.0 4.86 4.99

90.71

0.15

-0.01

0.17

4.99

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Sterling Pound

Source: Telequote

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Currencies Daily Report

Monday| July 15, 2013

JPY/INR
JPY (% change) The Japanese Yen appreciated around 2 percent in the last week on account of policy kept unchanged by Bank of Japan (BOJ). Additionally, favorable economic data from the country supported an upside in the currency. The Yen touched a weekly high of 98.27 and closed at 99.2 99.21 against dollar on Friday. Outlook For intra-day trade, we expect the Japanese Yen to de depreciate, taking cues rise in risk appetite in the global markets, which could lead to fall in demand for the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR July 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up valid for July 15, 2013 Support 59.70/59.50 Resistance 60.10/60.30 Last Prev day as on July 12, 2013 WoW MoM YoY

JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR July13 Futures (NSE) JPY 100 / INR July13 Futures (MCX-SX)

99.21 0.6038 60.45

0.3 -0.23 0.18

-1.9 1.44 -0.16

3.3 -0.30 0.91

25.3 -14.37 -14.36

60.44

0.17

-0.14

0.91

-14.36

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart JPY

Source: Telequote

Economic Indicators to be released on July 15, 2013

Indicator Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact

Bank Holiday GDP q/y Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y Industrial Production y/y NBS Press Conference Core Retail Sales m/m Retail Sales m/m Empire State Manufacturing Index Business Inventories m/m

Japan China China China China US US US US

All Day 7:30am 7:30am 7:30am 7:30am 6:00pm 6:00pm 6:00pm 7:30pm

7.5% 20.1% 8.9% -

7.7% 20.3% 9.1% 0.5% 0.7% 5.2 0.2%

7.7% 20.4% 9.2% 0.3% 0.6% 7.8 0.3%

High Medium Medium Medium High High Medium Medium

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