Commodities Evening Update

Monday | July 15, 2013

International Commodities

Content
Days overview Market Highlights Outlook Important Events for Today

Research Team
Reena Rohit Chief Manager Non-Agri Commodities and Currencies Reena.rohit@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6134 Anish Vyas Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Commodities Evening Update

Monday | July 15, 2013

International Commodities
News and Analysis India's Wholesale Price Index (WPI) rose to 4.86 percent in June. European equities are trading higher & US stock futures flat today. European equities are trading higher today as a result of Chinese economy grew as per the estimates. Asian markets ended on a positive note and US stocks futures are trading are trading on a flat note. India's Wholesale Price Index (WPI) increased to 4.86 percent in June from earlier rise of 4.7 percent in May. Spot gold prices are trading lower by 0.2 percent today on the back of strength in the US Dollar Index (DX). Further, decline in SPDR gold holdings also exerted downside pressure on prices. However, sharp downside in prices was cushioned on account of upbeat global markets. The yellow metal touched an intra-day low of $1279.13/oz and hovered around $1282.24/oz today till 4:30pm IST. In the Indian markets, depreciation in the Rupee prevented sharp fall in prices on the MCX. Taking cues from fall in gold prices along with downside in base metals complex, Spot silver prices dropped around 0.1 percent today. Further, stronger DX also exerted downside pressure on the prices. The white metal touched an intra-day low of $19.75/oz and was trading around $19.84/oz till 4:30pm IST today. Depreciation in the Rupee cushioned sharp fall in prices on the MCX. The base metals group traded on a negative today on the back of slow economic growth in Chinese economy. Further, strength in the DX exerted downside pressure on prices. However, decline in LME inventories prevented sharp fall in prices. In the Indian markets, depreciation in the Rupee restricted sharp fall in prices on the MCX. Copper, the leader of the base metals pack declined around 0.6 percent today on the back of unfavorable economic data from China. Chinese economy grew at slower pace and industrial production declined leading to worries over the demand for the metals from the China which is major user of the base metals. Strength in the DX acted as a negative for prices. However, drop in LME copper inventories around 0.5 percent which stood at 637,850 tonnes. On the domestic front, prices slipped 0.6 percent but depreciation in the Rupee prevented sharp fall in prices on the MCX. Nymex crude oil prices declined around 0.6 percent today taking cues from slow economic growth in the Chinese economy. Further, strength in the DX acted as a negative factor for prices. On the domestic bourses, prices plunged around 0.8 percent but depreciation in the Rupee cushioned sharp fall in prices on the MCX. Performance during the day
Index Nifty Sensex Nikkei Kospi FTSE Open High

as at 4.30 pm 15 July 13
Low Last % Chg from Prev day

5991.20 19926.10 14475.17 1870.26 15905.04

6038.20 20072.44 14574.17 1877.46 15916.17

5980.95 19883.19 14417.30 1847.82 15667.43

6030.80 20034.48 14506.25 1875.16 15667.43

0.36 0.38 0.23 0.28 0.11

Source: Reuters

as at 4.30 pm 15 July 13
Currency Dollar Index Euro/$ Spot INR/$ Spot Open High Low Current % Chg from Prev day

83.12 1.3065 59.93

83.46 1.3084 60.075

83.035 1.3018 59.765

83.44 1.3028 59.82

0.33 -0.29 -0.10

Source: Reuters

as at 4.30 pm 15 July 13
Commodity Spot Gold Comex Gold Aug13 MCX Gold Aug13 Spot Silver Comex Silver Sept13 MCX Silver Sept13 Crude Oil Nymex Aug 13 ICE -Brent Crude Oil MCX Crude Oil Aug 13 Copper LME - 3 Month MCX Copper Aug13 Zinc LME - 3 Month Zinc MCX - July13 Lead LME - 3 Month Lead MCX - July13 Nickel LME - 3 Month Nickel MCX July13 Aluminum LME - 3 Month Aluminum MCX July13 Unit Open High Low Last % Chg from Prev day

$/oz $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz $/oz

1284.84 1292.10 26794.00 19.78 0.201 41536 106.05 108.99 6358 6942.25 420.20 1898.00 112.70 2061 123.95 13620 824.80 1836.00 108.60

1294.46 1292.40 26925.0 20.14 0.201 41962 106.38 109.17 6390 6985.00 422.30 1902.00 113.10 2079 124.70 13830 827.70 1845.00 109.10

1279.13 1292.10 26677.0 19.75 0.1977 41306 105.11 108.05 6303 6905.00 417.10 1886.25 111.80 2058 123.20 13540 819.30 1825.00 107.70

1282.24 1292.40 26705.00 19.84 0.1977 41408 105.27 108.23 6307 6910.75 417.50 1889.50 111.95 2059 123.25 13550 820.30 1826.75 107.90

-0.16 1.14 -0.14 -0.10 -0.05 -0.17 -0.64 -0.53 -0.79 -0.61 -0.61 -0.30 -0.53 -0.39 -0.44 -1.49 -0.35 -0.68 -0.69

Rs/kg $/bbl

$/bbl Rs/bbl $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne

Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg

Source: Reuters

Commodities Evening Update

Monday | July 15, 2013

International Commodities
Outlook

In the evening session, we expect precious metals to trade higher on the back of expectations of favorable economic data from US. Further, upbeat global markets will also support an upside in prices. Base metals and crude oil prices are expected to trade lower on account of slow economic growth in China. On a yearly basis, Chinese economy may have grown in tandem with estimates but when compared on a quarterly basis it has gained marginally by 1.7 percent in Q2 of 2013 also below the forecast of 1.8 percent for the same period. However, sharp downside will be cushioned as a result of estimates of positive retail sales and core retail sales data from the US.

Technical Outook for evening session 15 July 13 ( CMP as of 5.00 pm)

Commodity Gold Aug'13 Spot Gold Silver Sept13 Spot Silver Crude Oil Aug13 Nymex Crude Oil Aug13 Natural Gas July13 LME Copper Copper Aug13 Zinc July13 Lead July13 Aluminum July13 Nickel July13 Unit Rs/10 gm $/oz Rs /kg $/oz Rs /bbl $/bbl Rs /mmBtu $/tonne Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Support 2 Support 1 CMP Resistance1 Resistance 2

26470 1263 40750 19.3 6210 103.7 216 6830 412 110.5 121.4 106.4 794

26630 1278 41100 19.67 6260 104.95 218 6880 415 111.2 122.5 107 802

26700 1283 41410 19.85 6305 105.23 220.9 6918 417.45 112 123.2 107.75 813.5

26860 1293 41850 20.18 6360 106.9 223 7000 422 113 124.6 108.6 825

27000 1301 42100 20.5 6410 107.6 226 7060 425 113.9 125.4 109.5 833

Important Events for Today

Indicator Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact

Bank Holiday GDP q/y Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y Industrial Production y/y NBS Press Conference Core Retail Sales m/m Retail Sales m/m Empire State Manufacturing Index Business Inventories m/m

Japan China China China China US US US US

All Day 7:30am 7:30am 7:30am 7:30am 6:00pm 6:00pm 6:00pm 7:30pm

7.5% 20.1% 8.9% -

7.7% 20.3% 9.1% 0.5% 0.7% 5.2 0.2%

7.7% 20.4% 9.2% 0.3% 0.6% 7.8 0.3%

High Medium Medium Medium High High Medium Medium