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South Indian Bank, 1Q FY 2014
South Indian Bank, 1Q FY 2014
NEUTRAL
CMP Target Price
% chg (qoq) (1.8) 22.1 (25.3) 1QFY13 297 207 123 % chg (yoy) 10.4 21.2 (6.7)
`23 -
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code
South Indian Bank (SIB) reported a weak set of numbers for 1QFY2014; its bottom-line declined by 6.7% yoy, primarily on account of higher provisioning (as annualized slippages surged to 2.8% and the bank increased provisioning on its NAFED exposure of `150cr from 60% to 100%). Boosted by treasury gains, the non-interest income grew strongly by 57% yoy, aiding a healthy 21.2% yoy growth in pre-provisioning profits, even when the NII grew at a moderate pace of 10.4% yoy. NIMs and Asset quality witness pressures: During 1QFY2014, the banks advances grew at moderate pace of 14.3% yoy, while deposits grew at healthy rate of 17.3% yoy. Despite a healthy 16.1% yoy growth witnessed in current deposits, the growth in overall CASA deposits came in at a moderate 14.5% yoy, as savings deposits grew at 14.1% yoy. CASA ratio moderated 51bp yoy, but improved by 203bp sequentially to 20.6%. The reported NIM for the quarter came down to 2.9%. Treasury income came in higher at `52cr for the quarter, as against `20cr in 1QFY2013. The bank registered a healthy performance on the non-interest income (excl. treasury) front, with a growth of 20.0% yoy to `66cr. During the quarter, the bank continued to face asset quality pressures, as the annualized slippage ratio surged to 2.8%, as against 2.2% in 4QFY2013 and 1.3% in 1QFY2013. Recoveries/upgrades for the bank came in lower at `10cr as compared to `47cr in 4QFY2013. Of the slippages during the quarter, a sum of around `120-130cr came from four chunky accounts two in the Iron & Steel industry and one each in the Paper and Infra sectors. The Management expects recovery/upgradation of at least two of these accounts in 2QFY2014. There was no fresh restructuring during the quarter. The total restructured book for the bank stands at `1,540cr. On its gold loan book, the average LTV for the bank (including accrued interest and post the recent correction in gold prices) stands at ~83% (as compared to origination LTV of ~70-71%). As per the Management, none of its gold loan book has LTV more than 95%. Outlook and valuation: During the last two quarter, the asset quality for the bank has witnessed pressures. Aggressive yields on the non-gold loan portfolio (~78% of total portfolio) and significant gold price correction on gold loan book (~22% of total), could further increase provisioning expenses and hence provide downside risk to the banks RoA. The stock currently trades at 0.9x FY2015E ABV. We recommend a Neutral rating on the stock.
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 12.3 46.2 41.5
3m 9.4 1.5
FY2012 1,022 29.2 402 37.3 2.9 3.5 6.5 1.3 1.1 21.6
FY2013 1,281 25.4 502 25.1 2.9 3.8 6.2 1.1 1.1 20.5
FY2014E 1,430 11.6 497 (1.0) 2.7 3.7 6.2 1.0 0.9 16.2
FY2015E 1,649 15.4 561 12.9 2.7 4.2 5.5 0.9 0.9 16.2
Vaibhav Agrawal
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6808 vaibhav.agrawal@angelbroking.com
Sourabh Taparia
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6872 sourabh.taparia@angelbroking.com
Harshal Patkar
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6847 harshal.patkar@angelbroking.com
1QFY14 1,225 966 219 39 898 328 118 66 52 445 194 117 77 252 105 110 (2) (3) 0 146 31 115 21.5
4QFY13 1,165 943 197 25 832 334 121 107 14 455 249 163 86 206 66 42 10 15 (1) 140 (14) 154 (9.7)
% chg (qoq) 5.1 2.4 11.3 56.8 7.9 (1.8) (2.7) (38.5) 276.9 (2.1) (22.1) (28.0) (10.8) 22.1 59.9 161.7 (120.6) (118.1) (103.6) 4.3 (330.3) (25.3) 3117bp
1QFY13 1,069 858 181 30 773 297 75 55 20 372 164 100 64 207 25 20 2 3 182 59 123 32.4
% chg (yoy) 14.6 12.6 21.0 31.4 16.2 10.4 57.0 20.0 159.0 19.8 17.9 17.0 19.5 21.2 314.9 461.4 NA (219.7) (98.5) (19.7) (46.9) (6.7) (1098)bp
FY2013 4,434 3,576 746 112 3,153 1,281 335 277 58 1,616 767 473 295 849 193 142 11 33 6 656 154 502 23.4
FY2012 3,583 2,868 621 94 2,562 1,022 247 206 41 1,269 617 374 243 652 79 25 14 40 0 572 171 402 29.8
% chg (yoy) 23.7 24.7 20.2 18.8 23.1 25.4 35.6 34.4 41.6 27.3 24.3 26.3 21.2 30.2 143.4 468.7 (20.2) (18.1) 1,928.1 14.6 (10.0) 25.1 (641)bp
% chg (6.2) 68.9 6.3 (1.6) 13.2 168.0 (20.0) (42.8) (10.3)
1QFY14 31,203 43,584 71.6 1,678 7,290 8,968 20.6 13.7 11.9 8.2 12.4 2.9 43.5
4QFY13 31,816 44,262 71.9 1,526 6,685 8,211 18.6 13.9 12.1 8.3 12.7 3.2 54.7
% chg (qoq) (1.9) (1.5) (29)bp 10.0 9.1 9.2 203bp (25)bp (20)bp (10)bp (30)bp (27)bp (1116)bp
1QFY13 27,349 37,153 73.6 1,445 6,390 7,835 21.1 13.2 10.9 8.4 13.0 3.2 44.2
% chg (yoy) 14.1 17.3 (202)bp 16.1 14.1 14.5 (51)bp 50bp 95bp (21)bp (61)bp (22)bp (68)bp
Cost-to-income ratio
1QFY14 4QFY13 3QFY13 2QFY13 1,766 235 341 48 2,390 4,244 495 7,129 1,427 225 348 64 2,064 3,904 554 6,522 1,465 219 321 80 2,086 3,346 563 5,994 1,372 207 333 128 2,040 2,978 661 5,680
The banks overall priority sector lending stands at ~30.0%, which the Management targets to take it to ~36% by the year end. The banks gold loan portfolio accounts for ~22% of the overall loan book, of which non-PSL now stands at ~`6,100cr, whereas the Agri/PSL stands at ~`900cr. On its gold loan book, the average LTV (including accrued interest and post the recent correction in gold prices) stands at ~83% (as compared to origination LTV of ~70-71%). As per the Management, none of its gold loan book has a LTV of more than 95%.
23.5
17.5
20.6
16.5
17.5
15.1
16.6
21.3
14.1
17.3
5.0
3.2
12.8
12.8
12.7
12.4
67.7
74.0
496
475
493
434
58.6
242
295
1QFY13
95
75
2QFY13
3QFY13
197
150
4QFY13
250
225
1QFY14
348
51.2
53.2
57.9
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
1QFY14
2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13 1.6 1.6 1.7
2.1 1.6
54.0 48.0 42.0 36.0 30.0 1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13 4QFY13 1QFY14 44.2 46.1 43.8 43.5
4QFY13
1QFY14
Investment arguments
Moderating business growth
The bank grew its advances and deposits at a moderate rate of 14.1% and 17.3% yoy, respectively, in 1QFY2014. The gold loan portfolio of the bank has increased at a CAGR of 50.3% over FY200913 and now constitutes 22% of the overall loan book. The Management indicated that future loan book growth would be from the retail segment. The banks tier-1 ratio, post the capital raising (`440cr via QIP during 2QFY2013) stands at a healthy 11.9%, thereby giving enough headroom for the bank to grow at a moderate pace going ahead.
Earlier estimates FY2014E 20.0 16.0 17.7 2.8 (3.2) 15.0 12.5 1.5 54.5 FY2015E 20.0 16.0 17.3 2.8 14.1 14.0 12.5 1.4 57.9
Revised estimates FY2014E 18.0 15.0 17.9 2.7 10.4 15.0 12.5 2.0 58.0 FY2015E 20.0 16.0 17.4 2.7 1.1 12.5 12.5 1.6 58.4
Earlier estimates 1,471 324 1,795 875 920 164 756 227 530
Revised estimates 1,430 370 1,800 875 925 214 710 213 497
Var. (%) (2.8) 14.0 0.2 0.5 30.9 (6.1) (6.1) (6.1)
Earlier estimates 1,684 370 2,054 992 1,061 186 875 297 578
FY2015 Revised estimates 1,649 374 2,023 984 1,039 189 851 289 561
Var. (%) (2.0) 1.1 (1.5) (0.8) (2.1) 1.3 (2.8) (2.8) (2.8)
FY2015E FY2013-15E FY2015E P/E (x) EPS CAGR (%) RoA (%) 8.0 7.0 15.4 10.7 5.5 9.8 2.7 3.5 3.9 3.3 3.9 4.1 3.4 3.3 2.8 3.2 2.6 2.5 5.9 3.2 3.6 6.6 4.1 4.3 3.7 2.3 4.3 20.8 7.5 26.3 17.4 5.7 17.1 18.3 1.0 16.8 21.6 10.0 15.4 52.3 5.7 3.7 27.1 7.0 78.9 (1.7) 17.0 14.5 17.5 (8.5) 67.5 14.7 54.6 9.5 1.6 1.1 1.9 1.6 0.9 1.3 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.6 1.2 0.8 1.1 1.0 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.4
FY2015E RoE (%) 18.5 13.1 22.8 16.2 16.2 22.8 13.6 13.3 16.0 15.1 15.3 14.2 14.3 14.2 14.7 13.5 14.7 13.0 16.8 12.9 16.5 17.0 14.6 13.6 15.2 14.7 11.5
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note:*Target multiples=SOTP Target Price/ABV (including subsidiaries), Without adjusting for SASF
Company Background
South Indian Bank (SIB) is a small old generation private sector bank with ~85% of its branches in southern India (large base in Kerala). Like Federal Bank, SIB also has a large NRI customer base (approx. 16% of total deposits). Of late, the bank has aggressively started focusing on the gold loan portfolio - a highly profitable and secured loan segment. Gold loans accounted for ~22% of the bank's loan book as of 1QFY2014.
9,400 12,524 33.1 378 671 23.0 16.6 396 724 23.3
10
11
E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Ratings (Returns):
12