Currencies Daily Report

Tuesday| July 16, 2013

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Reena Rohit Chief Manager Non-Agri Commodities and Currencies Reena.rohit@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6134 Anish Vyas Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Currencies Daily Report

Tuesday| July 16, 2013

Highlights
India's Wholesale Price Index (WPI) increased to 4.86 percent in June. US Retail Sales grew at slow pace of 0.4 percent in last month month. US Empire State Manufacturing Index rose to 9.5-mark mark in July July. Asian markets trading on a mixed note today on the back of diverse economic data from US in yesterdays trade coupled with slow economic growth in the Chinese economy adding downside pressure on t the market sentiments. US Retail Sales grew at slow pace of 0.4 percent in June as against a rise of 0.5 percent in May. Empire State Manufacturing Index increased by 1.7 points to 9.5-mark mark in July from earlier rose of 7.8 7.8-level in June. Business Inventories es was at 0.1 percent in May with respect to gain of 0.2 percent a month ago. India's Wholesale Price Index (WPI) increased to 4.86 percent in June from earlier rise of 4.7 percent in May.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last Prev. day

as on July 15, 2013 WoW MoM YoY

NIFTY SENSEX DJIA S&P FTSE KOSPI BOVESPA NIKKEI Nymex Crude (Aug13) - $/bbl Comex Gold (Aug13) - $/oz Comex Silver(Sept13) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne CRB Index (Industrial) G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% - Yield

6030.8 20034.5 15484.26 1682.5 1959.2 58497.8 14506.3 106.32 1283.80 19.83

0.4 0.4 0.1 0.1 -1.5 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.2 -

3.8 3.7 1.7 2.6

5.8 6.4 2.0 3.4 -

15.2 9.5 21.2 24.0 2.0 9.5 66.3 22.1 -19.3 -27.4

7.8 29.4 -0.1 3.1 3.0 3.7

3.1 18.3 11.5 8.7 -6.1 -8.5

US Dollar Index
The US Dollar Index (DX) traded on a flat note in yesterdays trade on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global markets sentiments which led to fall in demand for the currency. Further, retail sales data which came as per expectations along with rise in manufacturing index acted as a negative factor for the currency. The DX touched an intra-day day low of 83.04 and closed at 83.20 on Monday.

6939.25 102.09

-0.2 0.0 -

1.6

-11.6 -

-9.8 1.8

5.1

3.4

Source: Reuters

US Dollar (% change)

as on July 15, 2013 Last Prev. day WoW MoM YoY

Dollar/INR
The Indian Rupee depreciated around 0.1 percent in yesterdays trading session. The currency depreciated on the back of rise in inflation coupled with decline in industrial production and manufacturing data of the country released on Friday. Additionally, expectations tha that Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will keep the key interest rates unchanged in its policy meeting later this month exerted downside pressure on the currency. Further, outflow of foreign funds from equities and debt markets also acted as a negative factor. The e currency touched an intra intra-day low of 60.075 and closed at 59.80 on Monday. For the month of July 2013, FII outflows totaled at Rs.5400.70 crores th ($899.31 million) as on 15 July 2013. Year to date basis, net capital th inflows stood at Rs.66,777.60 crores ($12,601.50 million) till 15 July 2013. Outlook From the intra-day day perspective, we expect the Rupee to depreciate on account of weak economic data from the country in last two trading session. Further, weak global and domestic markets coupled wi with stronger DX will act as a negative factor for the currency.
Dollar Index US $ / INR (Spot) US $ / INR July13 Futures (NSE) US $ / INR July13 Futures (MCX-SX)

83.20 59.80 60.05 60.06

0.0 0.1 -0.08 0.08 -0.06 0.06

-1.4 1.5 -1.45 -1.41

3.1 -3.1 4.19 4.21

4.7 -7.9 8.67 8.68

Technical Chart USD/INR

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Trend US Dollar/INR July13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up

valid for July 16, 2013 Support 59.60/59.20 Resistance 60.20/60.40

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Currencies Daily Report

Tuesday| July 16, 2013

Euro/INR
The Euro appreciated marginally in yesterdays trade on the back of weakness in the DX. Further, upbeat global markets also supported an upside in the currency. 084 and closed at 1.3062 The Euro touched an intra-day high of 1.3084 against the dollar on Monday. Outlook In todays session, we expect the Euro to trade lower on the back of weak global markets. Further, strength in the DX will exert downside pressure in the currency. However, sharp downside in the currency can be cushioned or reversal can be seen on account of forecast for favorable economic sentiments from the region. Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR July13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Down 78.0/77.70 78.40/78.60 valid for July 16, 2013 Support Resistance

Euro (% change)
Last Prev. day

as on July 15, 2013 WoW MoM YoY

Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR July 13 Futures (NSE) Euro / INR July13 Futures (MCX-SX)

1.3062 78.04 78.2 78.2

0.0 0.1 -0.10 -0.12

1.5 0.1 0.01 0.02

-2.3 -1.0 1.90 1.88

6.4 -12.1 16.11 16.11

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Euro

GBP/INR
GBP (% change) The Sterling Pound traded on a flat note and depreciated preciated marginally around 0.05 percent. However, weakness in the DX coupled with rise in risk appetite in the global markets cushioned sharp fall in the currency.
$ / GBP (Spot)

Source: Telequote

as on July 15, 2013

Last

Prev. day

WoW

MoM

YoY

1.5098 90.838 90.42

-0.05 0.05 0.40 -0.31 0.31

1.0 0.21 -0.43

-3.9 0.61 0.34

-3.4 5.81 5.97

1.5026 and closed at The Sterling Pound touched an intra-day low of 1.5 1.5098 against dollar on Monday. Outlook We expect the Sterling Pound to trade on a negative note on the back of weak global markets. Further, strength in the he DX will act as a negative factor for the Pound. However, sharp downside in the currency will be prevented or reversal can be seen as result of expectations of favorable economic data from the country. Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR July 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways valid for July 16, 2013 Support 90.10/89.80 Resistance 90.60/90.80

GBP / INR (Spot) GBP / INR July13 Futures (NSE) GBP / INR July 13 Futures (MCX-SX)

90.43

-0.31 0.31

-0.36

0.36

6.00

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Sterling Pound

Source: Telequote

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Currencies Daily Report

Tuesday| July 16, 2013

JPY/INR
JPY (% change) The Japanese Yen depreciated around 0.6 percent in the yesterdays trade on account of rise in risk appetite in the global markets which led to fall in demand for the currency. 99.85 against The Yen touched an intra-day low of 100.48 and closed at 99. dollar on Monday. Outlook For intra-day trade, we expect the Japanese Yen to ap appreciate, taking cues rise in risk aversion in the global markets, which could lead to rise in demand for the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR July 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Down valid for July 16, 2013 Support 59.75/59.50 Resistance 60.20/60.40 Last Prev day as on July 15, 2013 WoW MoM YoY

JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR July13 Futures (NSE) JPY 100 / INR July13 Futures (MCX-SX)

99.85 0.6018 60.01

0.6 -0.33 -0.73

-1.1 0.10 -0.37

4.7 -1.55 -1.14

26.6 -13.58 -13.85

59.97

-0.78

-0.31

-1.24

-13.89

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart JPY

Source: Telequote

Economic Indicators to be released on July 16, 2013

Indicator Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact

CPI y/y PPI Input m/m RPI y/y German ZEW Economic Sentiment CPI y/y Core CPI y/y ZEW Economic Sentiment BOE Inflation Letter MPC Member Fisher Speaks Core CPI m/m CPI m/m TIC Long-Term Purchases Capacity Utilization Rate Industrial Production m/m FOMC Member George Speaks

UK UK UK Euro Euro Euro Euro UK UK US US US US US US

2:00pm 2:00pm 2:00pm 2:30pm 2:30pm 2:30pm 2:30pm Tentative 4:00pm 6:00pm 6:00pm 6:30pm 6:45pm 6:45pm 11:45pm

3.0% -0.1% 3.4% 39.9 1.6% 1.2% 31.8 0.2% 0.3% 14.3B 77.9% 0.3% -

2.7% -0.3% 3.1% 38.5 1.6% 1.2% 30.6 0.2% 0.1% -37.3B 77.6% 0.0% -

High Medium Medium High Medium Medium Medium High Medium High Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium

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