Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday| July 16, 16 2013

International Commodities

Content
Overview Precious Metals Energy Base Metals Important Events for today

Research Team
Reena Rohit Chief Manager Non-Agri Currencies and Commodities Reena.rohit@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6134 Anish Vyas Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday| July 16, 16 2013

International Commodities
Overview
India's Wholesale Price Index (WPI) increased to 4.86 percent in June. US Retail Sales grew at slow pace of 0.4 percent in last month month. mark in July July. US Empire State Manufacturing Index rose to 9.5-mark Asian markets trading on a mixed note today on the back of diverse economic data from US in yesterdays trade coupled with slow economic growth in the Chinese economy adding downside pressure on t the market sentiments. US Retail Sales grew at slow pace of 0.4 percent in June as against a rise of 0.5 percent in May. Empire State Manufacturing Index increased by 1.7 points to 9.5-mark mark in July from earlier rose of 7.8 7.8-level in June. Business Inventories es was at 0.1 percent in May with respect to gain of 0.2 percent a month ago. India's Wholesale Price Index (WPI) increased to 4.86 percent in June from earlier rise of 4.7 percent in May. The US Dollar Index (DX) traded on a flat note in yesterdays trade on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global markets sentiments which led to fall in demand for the currency. Further, retail sales data which came as per expectations along with rise in manufacturing g index acted as a negative factor for the currency. The DX touched an intra-day day low of 83.04 and closed at 83.20 on Monday. The Indian Rupee depreciated around 0.1 percent in yesterdays trading session. The currency depreciated on the back of rise in i inflation coupled with decline in industrial production and manufacturing data of the country released on Friday. Additionally, expectations that Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will keep the key interest rates unchanged in its policy meeting later this month exerted xerted downside pressure on the currency. Further, outflow of foreign funds from equities and debt markets also acted as a negative factor. The currency touched an intra intra-day low of 60.075 and closed at 59.80 on Monday. For the month of July 2013, FII outflows totaled at Rs.5400.70 crores th ($899.31 million) as on 15 July 2013. Year to date basis, net capital th inflows stood at Rs.66,777.60 crores ($12,601.50 million) till 15 July 2013.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last INR/$ (Spot) 59.8 Prev day 0.1

as on 15 July, 2013 w-o-w 1.5 m-o-m -3.1 y-o-y -7.9

$/Euro (Spot)

1.3062

0.0

1.5

-2.3

6.4

Dollar Index NIFTY

83.20

0.0

-1.4

3.1

4.7

6030.8

0.4

3.8

5.8

15.2

SENSEX

20034.5

0.4

3.7

6.4

9.5

DJIA

15484.3

0.1

1.7

2.0

21.2

S&P

1682.5

0.1

2.6

3.4

24.0

Source: Reuters

The Euro appreciated marginally in yesterdays trade on the back of weakness in the DX. Further, upbeat global markets also supported an upside in the currency. day high of 1.3084 and closed at The Euro touched an intra-day 1.3062 against the dollar on Monday. Mon

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Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday| July 16, 16 2013

International Commodities
Bullion Gold
Spot gold prices declined around 0.2 percent in the yesterdays trade on the back of declining trend in SPDR gold holdings. However, weakness in the DX coupled with upbeat market sentiments cushioned sharp fall in prices. The yellow metal touched an intra intra-day low of $1275.65/oz and closed at $1282/oz in yesterdays trading session. In the Indian markets, prices ended on a negative note, declining around 0.6 percent. The commodity closed at Rs.26438/10 gms after touching a low of Rs.26388/10 gms on Monday. However, depreciation in the Indian Rupee cushioned sharp fall in prices on the MCX. Market Highlights - Gold (% change)
Gold Gold (Spot) Unit $/oz Last 1282.0 Prev. day -0.2 as on 15 July, 2013 WoW 3.7 MoM -7.5 YoY -19.3

Gold (Spot Mumbai) Gold (LBMA-PM Fix) Comex Gold (August13) MCX Gold (August13)

Rs/10 gms $/oz

26700.0

0.8

2.7

-4.3

-8.6

1284.8

0.4

4.0

-7.2

-19.2

$/oz

1283.8

0.5

3.0

-6.1

-19.3

Silver
Taking cues from weakness in the DX, Spot silver prices gained around 0.2 percent in yesterdays trade. However, sharp upside in prices was capped on account of fall in gold prices coupled with downside in base metals group. The white metal touched an intra-day day high of $19.65/oz and closed at $19.90/oz in yesterdays trade. On the domestic front, prices fell around 0.9 percent and closed at Rs.40,950/kg after touching a low of Rs.40,871/kg /kg on Monday. However, depreciation in the Indian Rupee cushioned sharp fall in prices on the MCX.

Rs /10 gms

26438.0

-0.6

1.3

-4.8

-9.7

Source: Reuters

Market Highlights - Silver (% change)

Silver Silver (Spot) Silver (Spot Mumbai) Silver (LBMA) Comex Silver (Sept13) MCX Silver (Sept13) Unit $/oz Rs/1 kg Last 19.9 41900.0 Prev day 0.2 0.2

as on 15 July, 2013 WoW 4.5 1.5 MoM -8.8 -6.5 YoY -27.0 -20.2

$/oz $/ oz

1982.0 19.8

0.8 0.2

3.4 3.7

-9.2 -8.5

-26.7 -27.4

Outlook
Precious metal prices are expected to trade on a lower note in todays trade, taking cues from strength in the DX. Further, rise in risk aversion in global market sentiments will act as a negative factor for prices. Additionally, decline trend in SPDR holdings will exert more downside pressure in prices. In the Indian markets, depreciation in the Rupee will cushion sharp fall in prices on the MCX. Technical Outlook
Unit Spot Gold MCX Gold Aug13 Spot Silver MCX Silver Sept13 $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz Rs/kg valid for July 16, 2013 Support 1273/1268 26300/26200 19.55/19.35 40500/40200 Resistance 1285/1293 26550/26700 19.90/20.15 41300/41800

Rs / kg

40950.0

-0.9

1.4

-5.3

-22.4

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Spot Gold

Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday| July 16, 16 2013

International Commodities
Energy Crude Oil
Nymex crude oil prices rose around 0.3 percent in yesterdays trading session taking cues from favorable manufacturing data and rise in retail sales as per the expectations from US. Further, unrest and political turmoil in Egypt led to supply upply concerns from region supported an upside in prices. Additionally, weakness in the DX coupled with upbeat global markets acted as a positive factor. Crude oil prices touched an intra intra-day high of $106.63/bbl and closed at $106.30/bbl in yesterdays t trading session. On the domestic bourses, prices fell 0.9 percent in the yesterdays trade. The commodity closed at Rs.6,285/bbl /bbl after touching a low of Rs.6,272/bbl on Monday. However, depreciation preciation in the Indian Rupee prevented sharp fall in prices on the MCX. API Inventories Forecast The American Petroleum Institute (API) is scheduled to release its weekly inventories today and US crude oil inventories are expected to decline by 2.0 million barrels for the week ending on 12th July 2013. Gasoline stocks are expected to drop by 0.3 million barrels and distillate inventories are expected to shoot up by 2.0 million barrels for the same week. Outlook day perspective, we expect crude oil prices to trade on a From the intra-day positive note on the back of expectations of decline in API crude oil inventories. Further, expectations of positive economic sentiments data from The Euro Zone will support an upside in prices. However, sharp upside in prices will be capped on account of strength in t the DX coupled with weak global markets. In the Indian markets depreciation in the Rupee will support an upside in prices on the MCX. Technical Outlook
Unit NYMEX Crude Oil MCX Crude July13 $/bbl Rs/bbl valid for July 16, 2013 Support 105.30/104.20 6240/6170 Resistance 106.70/107.40 6320/6360
Source: Telequote

Market Highlights - Crude Oil (% change)

Crude Oil Brent (Spot) Nymex Crude (Aug 13) ICE Brent Crude (Aug13) MCX Crude (July 13) Unit $/bbl $/bbl Last 110.1 106.3 Prev. day 0.0 0.3 WoW 1.7 3.1

as on 15 July, 2013 MoM 6.2 8.7 YoY 5.8 22.1

$/bbl

109.1

0.3

1.5

4.6

5.4

Rs/bbl

6285.0

-0.9

0.6

12.8

30.4

Source: Reuters

Market Highlights - Natural Gas (% change)

Natural Gas (NG) Nymex NG MCX NG (July 13)

as on 15 July, 2013

Unit $/mmbtu Rs/ mmbtu

Last 3.672 213.9

Prev. day 0.8 -2.5

WoW -1.61 -6.18

MoM -2.21 -1.11

YoY 27.50 34.53

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart NYMEX Crude Oil

Source: Telequote

Technical Chart NYMEX Natural Gas

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Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday| July 16, 16 2013

International Commodities
Base Metals
Market Highlights - Base Metals (% change) The base metals pack traded on a negative note in yesterdays trade on the back of slow economic growth in Chinese economy coupled with US retail sales increasing at a slower pace. Further, mixed LME inventories scenario also exerted downside pressure on prices prices. However, sharp downside in prices was cushioned on account of weakness in the DX. Additionally, upbeat global markets also prevented fall in prices. In the Indian markets, depreciation in the Rupee restricted sharp fall in prices on the MCX.
Unit LME Copper (3 month) MCX Copper (Aug13) LME Aluminum (3 month) MCX Aluminum (July13) LME Nickel $/tonne 13540.0 -1.6 0.7 -4.0 -16.3 Rs /kg 105.5 -2.9 -2.3 -0.7 0.9 $/tonne 1809.3 -1.6 0.3 -2.7 -5.6 Rs/kg 414.0 -1.4 -1.0 1.4 -2.7 $/tonne Last 6939.3 Prev. day -0.2 as on 15 July, 2013 WoW 1.6 MoM -11.6 YoY -9.8

Copper
Copper prices traded on a negative note and fell around 0.2 percent yesterday on the back of Chinese economy growing at slow pace pace. Further, US retail sales rose at sluggish pace when compared to previous data acted as a negative factor. However, sharp downside in prices was cushioned as a result of decline in LME copper inventories by 0.5 percent which stood at 637,850 tonnes. Additionally, ionally, a weaker DX coupled with optimistic global markets prevented fall in prices. The red metal touched a an intra-day low of $6895/tonne /tonne and closed at $69 $6939.30/tonne in yesterdays trade. On the domestic front, prices fell 1.4 percent but depreciation preciation in the Rupee restricted downside and closed at Rs. 414/kg /kg after touching a low of Rs.413/kg on Monday. Outlook In todays session, we expect base metals prices to trade on a mixed note on the back of slow economic growth in Chinese economy in yesterdays trade. Further, strength in the DX coupled with weak global market sentiments will add downside in prices. However, on the other hand downside will be cushioned or reversal can be seen on account of expectations of favourable economic senti sentiments data from the Euro Zone and economic data from the US US. In the Indian markets, depreciation in the Rupee will cushion sharp fall in prices on the MCX. Technical Outlook
MCX Copper Aug13 MCX Zinc July 13 MCX Lead July 13 MCX Aluminum July13 MCX Nickel July 13 Unit Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg valid for July 16, 201 2013 Support 411.0/408.0 109.80/108.80 120.50/119.50 104.80/104.0 795/788 Resistance 416.0/419.50 111.50/112.50 122.20/123.20 106.20/107.20 807/814

(3 month) MCX Nickel (July13) LME Lead (3 month) MCX Lead (July13) LME Zinc (3 month) MCX Zinc (July13)
Source: Reuters

Rs /kg

801.7

-2.6

-1.9

-2.1

-10.3

$/tonne

2055.8

-0.5

-0.9

-1.7

8.3

Rs /kg

121.4

-1.9

-3.4

0.3

16.3

$/tonne

1890.0

-0.3

0.9

2.3

0.1

Rs /kg

110.6

-1.7

-1.9

4.5

6.6

LME Inventories
Unit Copper Aluminum Nickel Zinc Lead tonnes tonnes tonnes tonnes tonnes 15th July 637,850 5,410,050 196,308 1,002,650 193,950 12th July 640,775 5,411,425 194,406 1,008,500 193,825 Actual Change -2,925 -1,375 1,902 -5,850 125 (%) Change -0.5 0.0 1.0 -0.6 0.1
Source: Reuters

Technical Chart LME Copper

Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report

Tuesday| July 16, 16 2013

International Commodities
Important Events for Today
Indicator Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact

CPI y/y PPI Input m/m RPI y/y German ZEW Economic Sentiment CPI y/y Core CPI y/y ZEW Economic Sentiment BOE Inflation Letter MPC Member Fisher Speaks Core CPI m/m CPI m/m TIC Long-Term Purchases Capacity Utilization Rate Industrial Production m/m FOMC Member George Speaks

UK UK UK Euro Euro Euro Euro UK UK US US US US US US

2:00pm 2:00pm 2:00pm 2:30pm 2:30pm 2:30pm 2:30pm Tentative 4:00pm 6:00pm 6:00pm 6:30pm 6:45pm 6:45pm 11:45pm

3.0% -0.1% 3.4% 39.9 1.6% 1.2% 31.8 0.2% 0.3% 14.3B 77.9% 0.3% -

2.7% -0.3% 0.3% 3.1% 38.5 1.6% 1.2% 30.6 0.2% 0.1% -37.3B 37.3B 77.6% 0.0% -

High Medium Medium High Medium Medium Medium High Medium High Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium

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