Commodities Evening Update

Thursday | July 18, 2013

International Commodities

Content
Days overview Market Highlights Outlook Important Events for Today

Research Team
Reena Rohit Chief Manager Non-Agri Commodities and Currencies Reena.rohit@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6134 Anish Vyas Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Commodities Evening Update

Thursday | July 18, 2013

International Commodities
News and Analysis European Current Account at surplus of 19.6 billion Euros in May. UKs Retail Sales rose at slow pace of 0.2 percent in month of June. LME Copper inventories fell around 0.1 percent in todays trade. European equities are trading higher today on the back of favorable economic data from the region coupled with forecast for positive economic data from US in evening session. Asian markets ended on a mixed note and US stock futures are trading on a flat note. European Current Account was at a surplus of 19.6 billion Euros in May as against a previous surplus of 23.8 billion Euros a month ago. UKs Retail Sales rose at slow pace of 0.2 percent in June from earlier rise of 2.1 percent in May. Spot gold prices increased around 0.5 percent today on the back of upbeat global market sentiments However, sharp upside in prices was capped on account of decline in SPDR gold holdings coupled with strength in the US Dollar Index (DX). In the Indian markets, depreciation in the Rupee supported an upside in prices on the MCX. Taking cues from rise in gold prices, Spot silver prices increased around 1 percent today. However, downside in base metals group along with strength in the DX. Depreciation in the Indian Rupee acted as a positive factor for prices on the MCX. The base metals complex declined in todays trade on the back of statement from International Monetary Fund (IMF) that Chinese economic growth will miss its estimates. Further, strength in the DX coupled with mixed LME inventories exerted downside pressure in prices. On the domestic bourses, depreciation in the Rupee cushioned sharp fall in prices on the MCX. Copper, the leader of the base metals pack declined around 0.1 percent today on the back of forecast that Chinese economy will not gorw as expected by the IMF. Further, strength in the DX exerted donside pressure on prices. However, sharp downside in prices was prevented on account of decline in LME copper inventories by 0.1 percent which stood at 640,600 tonnes coupled with upbeat global markets. Depreciation in the Indian Rupee supported an upside in prices on the MCX. Nymex crude oil prices declined around 0.2 percent today taking cues from strength in the DX coupled with expectations that Chinese economic growth will miss its estimates. However, sharp downside in prices was cushioned on the back of decline in API and US crude oil inventories. On the domestic bourses, depreciation in the Rupee supported an upside in prices on the MCX.
Currency Dollar Index Euro/$ Spot INR/$ Spot Open High Low

Performance during the day

Index Nifty Sensex Nikkei Kospi FTSE Open High

as at 4.30 pm 18 July 13
Low Last % Chg from Prev day

5984.70 19999.51 14645.25 1883.07 15659.13

6051.10 20176.90 14827.73 1885.01 15827.63

5974.55 19956.20 14645.25 1870.78 15632.59

6038.05 20128.41 14808.50 1875.48 15632.59

1.08 0.90 1.32 -0.64 0.79

Source: Reuters

as at 4.30 pm 18 July 13
Current % Chg from Prev day

82.82 1.3124 59.26

83.06 1.3127 59.776

82.76 1.3089 59.24

82.935 1.3104 59.56

0.11 -0.15 0.40

Source: Reuters

as at 4.30 pm 18 July 13
Commodity Spot Gold Comex Gold Aug13 MCX Gold Aug13 Spot Silver Comex Silver Sept13 MCX Silver Sept13 Crude Oil Nymex Aug 13 ICE -Brent Crude Oil MCX Crude Oil Aug 13 Copper LME - 3 Month MCX Copper Aug13 Zinc LME - 3 Month Zinc MCX - July13 Lead LME - 3 Month Lead MCX - July13 Nickel LME - 3 Month Nickel MCX July13 Aluminum LME - 3 Month Aluminum MCX July13 Unit Open High Low Last % Chg from Prev day

$/oz $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz $/oz

1275.49 1275.30 26414.00 19.25 0.1929 40217 106.56 108.63 6305 6906.00 413.00 1860.25 109.30 2030 120.35 13980 829.00 1803.00 105.65

1282.90 1276.20 26550.0 19.47 0.1929 40393 106.73 108.70 6363 6918.00 414.90 1866.00 109.70 2035 120.80 14000 832.00 1809.00 106.00

1273.89 1275.20 26414.0 19.21 0.19285 40085 106.15 108.03 6305 6850.00 411.50 1847.00 108.70 2013 119.60 13825 822.40 1794.50 105.00

1281.16 1275.90 26480.00 19.44 0.19285 40282 106.27 108.16 6327 6889.00 412.75 1851.75 108.65 2021 119.80 13970 828.70 1795.00 104.95

0.45 -0.16 0.50 0.99 -0.64 0.32 -0.20 -0.41 0.51 -0.14 0.05 -0.46 -0.37 -0.59 -0.33 0.09 0.17 -0.50 -0.43

Rs/kg $/bbl

$/bbl Rs/bbl $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne

Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg

Source: Reuters

Commodities Evening Update

Thursday | July 18, 2013

International Commodities
Outlook

In the evening session, we expect precious metals, base metals and crude oil prices to trade higher on the back of expectation of favorable economic data from the US. Further, movement in the DX will be determined by the statement from US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and any ease in concerns regarding the pullback in stimulus measures will add downside pressure on DX and support upside in dollar denominated commodities. However, sharp upside in base metals prices will be capped or reversal can be seen on account of forecast for decline in US manufacturing data.

Technical Outook for evening session 18 July 13 ( CMP as of 4.30 pm)

Commodity Gold Aug'13 Spot Gold Silver Sept13 Spot Silver Crude Oil Aug13 Nymex Crude Oil Aug13 Natural Gas July13 LME Copper Copper Aug13 Zinc July13 Lead July13 Aluminum July13 Nickel July13 Unit Rs/10 gm $/oz Rs /kg $/oz Rs /bbl $/bbl Rs /mmBtu $/tonne Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Support 2
26240 1265 39600 18.63 6270 105.6 212 6770 408 107.2 118.1 103.6 814

Support 1
26370 1273 39900 18.93 6300 106.1 214 6830 411 108 119 104.4 822

CMP
26480 1281.4 40290 19.4 6326 106.26 217.1 6888 412.95 108.7 119.85 105 829

Resistance1
26540 1285 40500 19.55 6375 107.1 219 6930 416 109.5 121 106 836

Resistance 2
26680 1292 40850 19.87 6405 107.6 222 7000 419 110.4 122 107 846

Important Events for Today

Indicator Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact

Current Account Retail Sales m/m Spanish 10-y Bond Auction Unemployment Claims Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

Euro UK Euro US US US

1:30pm 2:00pm 2:24pm 6:00pm 7:30pm 7:30pm

19.6B 0.2% 4.72/2.3 -

21.3B 0.2% 343K 8.5

19.5B 2.1% 4.77/1.8 360K 12.5

Medium High Medium High High High