Commodities Daily Report

Friday| July 19, 19 2013

International Commodities

Content
Overview Precious Metals Energy Base Metals Important Events for today

Research Team
Reena Rohit Chief Manager Non-Agri Currencies and Commodities Reena.rohit@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6134 Anish Vyas Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Commodities Daily Report

Friday| July 19, 19 2013

International Commodities
Overview
US Unemployment Claims declined to 334,000 for w/e on 12 July. European Current Account was at surplus of 19.6 billion Euros in May. US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index increased to 19.8 19.8-mark in July. UKs Retail Sales rose at slow pace of 0.2 percent in the last month.
th

Market Highlights (% change)

Last INR/$ (Spot) 59.73 Prev day -0.7 0.7

as on 18 July, 2013 w-o-w 0.1 m-o-m -1.5 y-o-y -7.7

Asian markets are trading on mixed note today ahead of the G20 meeting starting from todays session. However, sharp downside in market sentiments were cushioned as a result of ease in concerns fro tapering in stimulus measures after statement from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke. US Unemployment Claims declined by 24,000 to 334,000 for the week th ending on 12 July as against a rise of 358,000 in prior week. Philly Fed Manufacturing Index increased by 7.3 points to 19.8 19.8-mark in July from earlier rise of 12.5-level in June. The US Dollar Index (DX) gained around 0.1 percent in yesterdays trade on the back of rise in risk aversion in global markets in early part of the trade. However, sharp upside in the currency was capped on account of statement from US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke r regarding ease in concerns for pullback in its stimulus measures coupled with favorable economic data from the US. The DX touched an intra intra-day high of 83.16 and closed at 82.96 on Thursday. The Indian Rupee appreciated yesterday in the early part of the t trade on the back of upbeat domestic market sentiments coupled with ease in concerns by Federal Reserve regarding pullback in its stimulus measures. Additionally, weakness in the DX supported an upside in the currency. However, during the day the currency wiped off its gains and depreciated on account of failure of bond selling by Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to cushion the sharp depreciation in Rupee which had fallen in past few weeks. In order to suck liquidity from market the central bank sold bonds of $2 billion but fell short as only 25.32 billion Rupees ($424.8million) were accepted. This factor acted as a negative factor for the Rupee and depreciated around 0.7 percent in yesterdays trading session. The currency touched an intra-day day low of 59.776 and closed at 59.73 on Thursday. For the month of July 2013, FII outflows totaled at Rs.5,891.6.40 crores th ($981.62 million) as on 18 July 2013. Year to date basis, net capital th inflows stood at Rs.66,286.70 crores ($12,519.20 million) till 18 July 2013. UKs Retail Sales rose at slow pace of 0.2 percent in June from earlier rise of 2.1 percent in May.

$/Euro (Spot)

1.3109

-0.1 0.1

0.1

-2.1

6.8

Dollar Index NIFTY

82.96

0.1

0.0

1.0

4.4

6038.1

1.1

1.7

3.9

15.8

SENSEX

20128.4

0.9

2.3

4.7

10.1

DJIA

15548.5

0.5

0.6

5.4

20.5

S&P

1689.4

0.5

0.9

2.3

23.1

Source: Reuters

The Euro depreciated around 0.1 percent in yesterdays trade on the back of strength in the DX. However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned on account of favorable economic data from the region coupled with upbeat global markets. The Euro touched an intra-day day low of 1.3065 and closed at 1.3109 against the dollar on Thursday. European Current Account was at a surplus of 19.6 billion Euros in May as against a previous surplus of 23.8 billion Euros a month ago

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Commodities Daily Report

Friday| July 19, 19 2013

International Commodities
Bullion Gold
Spot gold prices increased around 0.7 percent in the yesterdays trade on the back of upbeat global markets coupled with ease in concerns regarding pullback of stimulus measures by Federal Reserve Reserve. However, strength in the DX coupled with decline in SPDR g gold holdings to 935.17 7 tonnes which is at lowest level since February 2009 capped sharp gains in prices. The yellow metal touched an intra intra-day high of $1288.09/oz and closed at $1284.50/oz 0/oz in yesterdays trading session. In the Indian markets, prices ended on a positive note, increasing around 1.2 percent as a result of depreciation in the Rupee Rupee. The commodity closed at Rs.26658/10 /10 gms after touching a high of Rs.26688/10 gms on Thursday. Market Highlights - Gold (% change)
Gold Gold (Spot) Unit $/oz Last 1284.5 Prev. day 0.7 as on 18 July, 2013 WoW 0.0 MoM -6.1 YoY -18.7

Gold (Spot Mumbai) Gold (LBMA-PM Fix) Comex Gold (August13) MCX Gold (August13)

Rs/10 gms $/oz

26550.0

-0.2

-0.2

-5.3

-9.1

1283.3

-1.1

-0.1

-6.1

-19.0

$/oz

1277.9

-1.0

-0.2

-0.6

-19.6

Rs /10 gms

26658.0

1.2

-0.1

-4.7

-8.6

Source: Reuters

Silver
Market Highlights - Silver (% change) Taking cues from rise in gold prices along with upside side in base metals complex, Spot silver prices gained around 0.5 percent in yesterdays trade. However, strength in the DX capped sharp gains in prices. The white metal touched an intra-day high of $19.56/oz /oz and closed at $19.34/oz in yesterdays trade. On the domestic front, prices rose around 0.8 percent on account of depreciation in the Rupee and closed at Rs.40,473/kg /kg after touching a high of Rs.40,600/kg on Thursday.
Silver Silver (Spot) Silver (Spot Mumbai) Silver (LBMA) Comex Silver (Sept13) MCX Silver (Sept13) Unit $/oz Rs/1 kg Last 19.3 40920.0 Prev day 0.5 -1.6 as on 18 July, 2013 WoW -3.8 -2.3 MoM -10.6 -9.5 YoY -29.0 -22.7

$/oz $/ oz

1949.0 19.4

-1.7 -0.2

-1.8 -2.0

-10.6 -2.9

-29.0 -28.7

Outlook
Precious metal prices are expected to trade on a higher note in todays trade, taking cues from weakness in the DX. Further, upbeat global markets sentiments will support an upside in the prices. However However, decline in SPDR holdings will cap sharp gains in prices prices. In the Indian markets, depreciation in the Rupee will support upside in prices on the MCX. Technical Outlook
Unit Spot Gold MCX Gold Aug13 Spot Silver MCX Silver Sept13 $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz Rs/kg valid for July 19 19, 2013 Support 1279/1275 26500/26400 19.30/19.10 40100/39800 Resistance 1291/1296 26750/26850 19.65/19.90 40800/41200

Rs / kg

40473.0

0.8

-2.9

-8.1

-23.2

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Spot Gold

Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report

Friday| July 19, 19 2013

International Commodities
Energy Crude Oil
Nymex crude oil prices gained around 1.5 .5 percent in yesterdays trading session taking cues from declining trend in US crude oil inventories. Further, statement from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke regarding ease in concerns for pullback in its stimulus measures supported an upside in prices. Additionally, favorable economic data from US acted as a positive factor for prices. Crude oil prices touched an intra-day day high of $108 $108.43/bbl and closed at $108/bbl in yesterdays trading session. On the domestic bourses, prices rose 2.7 percent in the yeste yesterdays trade as a result of depreciation in the Indian Rupee. The commodity closed at Rs.6,463/bbl /bbl after touching a high of Rs.6, Rs.6,473/bbl on Thursday. Market Highlights - Crude Oil (% change)
Crude Oil Brent (Spot) Nymex Crude (Aug 13) ICE Brent Crude (Aug13) MCX Crude (July 13) Unit $/bbl $/bbl Last 110.8 108.0 Prev. day 0.0 1.5 WoW 1.9 3.0 as on 18 July, 2013 MoM 5.0 13.2 YoY 2.0 20.2

$/bbl

108.7

0.1

0.9

2.5

0.8

Rs/bbl

6463.0

2.7

2.9

11.8

26.1

Source: Reuters

Market Highlights - Natural Gas (% change)

Natural Gas (NG) Nymex NG MCX NG (July 13)

as on 18 July, 2013

Natural Gas
Nymex natural gas prices gained around 5.5 percent in yesterdays trade on the back of less than expected rise in US natural gas inventories. Further, expectations of warm weather conditions will lead to increase in gas demand for air conditioning purpose acted as a positive factor for prices. However, strength in the DX capped gains in prices. Gas prices touched an intra-day day high of $3.835/mmbtu and closed at $3.81/mmbtu in yesterdays trade. On the domestic front, prices rose around 6 percent on account if depreciation in the Rupee and closed at Rs.229/mmbtu after touching an intra-day high of Rs.229.30/mmbtu on Thursday. EIA Inventories Data US Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its weekly inventories yesterday and US natural gas inventory increased less than expectations by 58 billion cubic feet (bcf) which stood at 2.745 tr trillion cubic feet for the week ending on 12thJuly 2013. Outlook From the intra-day day perspective, we expect crude oil prices to trade on a positive note on the back of declining trend in API and US crude oil inventories. Additionally, weakness in the DX will support an upside in prices. Further, statement from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke eased the concerns regarding pullback in its stimulus measures will act as a positive factor. In the Indian markets depreciation preciation in the Rupee will support an upside in prices on the MCX. Technical Outlook
Unit NYMEX Crude Oil MCX Crude July13 $/bbl Rs/bbl valid for July 19, 2013 Support 106.80/105.80 6390/6330 Resistance 108.60/109.30 6500/6540

Unit $/mmbtu Rs/ mmbtu

Last 3.81 229

Prev. day 5.5 5.9

WoW 5.45 5.58

MoM -2.58 0.17

YoY 27.98 39.55

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart NYMEX Crude Oil

Source: Telequote

Technical Chart NYMEX Natural Gas

Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report

Friday| July 19, 19 2013

International Commodities
Base Metals
Market Highlights - Base Metals (% change) The base metals pack traded on a positive note in yesterdays trade on the back of favourable economic data from US. Further, decline in LME inventories apart from Nickel supported an upside movement in prices. Additionally, statement from Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke regarding ease in concerns for pullback in its stimulus measures acted as a positive factor. However, sharp upside in prices was capped on account of strength in the DX. In the Indian markets, depreciation in the Rupee supported an upside in prices on the MCX.
Unit LME Copper (3 month) MCX Copper (Aug13) LME Aluminum (3 month) MCX Aluminum (July13) LME Nickel (3 month) $/tonne 14026.0 0.5 2.8 -0.7 -13.1 Rs /kg 105.9 0.5 -2.0 -0.6 -0.1 $/tonne 1804.5 0.0 -1.5 -2.0 -7.0 Rs/kg 415.6 0.7 -1.8 1.3 -3.6 $/tonne Last 6909.0 Prev. day 0.1 as on 18 July, 2013 WoW -1.3 MoM -11.9 YoY -11.1

Copper
Copper prices traded on a positive note and increased around 0.1 percent yesterday on the back of favourable manufacturing data from US coupled with decline in US jobless claims data data. Further, decline in LME copper inventories around 0.1 percent which stood at 640,600 tonnes supported an upside in prices. Additionally, upbeat global markets after the Fed statement regarding ease in worries over tapering of stimulus measures acted as a positive factor. However, strength in the DX capped sharp gains in prices. The red metal touched an intra-day high of $6920/tonne and closed at $6909/tonne in yesterdays trade. On the domestic front, prices increased 0.7 percent on account of depreciation in the Rupee and closed at Rs. 415.60/kg /kg after touching a high of Rs.415.90/kg on Thursday. Outlook In todays session, we expect base metals prices to trade on a positive note on the back of weakness in the DX coupled pled with ease in concerns for bond reduction after affirmative statement from US Federal Reserve. Additionally, favourable economic data from the US along with upbeat global markets will act as a positive factor for prices. In the Indian markets depreciation preciation in the Rupee will support an upside in prices on the MCX. Technical Outlook
Unit MCX Copper Aug13 MCX Zinc July 13 MCX Lead July 13 MCX Aluminum July13 MCX Nickel July 13 Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg valid for July 19, 201 2013 Support 412/409 108.80/107.80 120.80/119.80 105.0/104.20 827/822 Resistance 419/421 110.50/111.50 122.50/123.50 106.50/107.50 845/852

MCX Nickel (July13) LME Lead (3 month) MCX Lead (July13) LME Zinc (3 month) MCX Zinc (July13)

Rs /kg

834.7

0.9

1.9

0.3

-6.5

$/tonne

2043.8

0.5

-1.3

-3.0

6.1

Rs /kg

121.5

1.1

-1.9

-1.7

14.6

$/tonne

1861.0

0.0

-2.0

0.2

-1.4

Rs /kg

109.6

0.5

-2.6

1.6

5.4

Source: Reuters

LME Inventories
Unit Copper Aluminum Nickel Zinc Lead tonnes tonnes tonnes tonnes tonnes 18th July 640,600 5,479,550 196,170 1,075,625 196,475 17th July 641,225 5,486,100 195,774 1,077,225 196,875 Actual Change -625 -6,550 396 -1,600 -400 (%) Change -0.1 -0.1 0.2 -0.1 -0.2
Source: Reuters

Technical Chart LME Copper

Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report

Friday| July 19, 19 2013

International Commodities
Important Events for Today
Indicator Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact

German PPI m/m Public Sector Net Borrowing Spanish HPI q/q G20 Meetings

Euro UK Euro ALL

11:30am 2:00pm Tentative Day 1

-0.2% 9.4B -

-0.3% 0.3% 10.5B -0.8% 0.8% -

Medium Medium Medium High

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