Looking Ahead

A Context for the Next Twenty Year Needs Assessment July 2013

A Larger Context for Twenty Year Needs

Growing transit demand and complexity of travel paths and times Growing economy changing type, location of jobs A new generation that embraces transit but expects a 21st Century system Strategic Investments beyond the Core Program needed to sustain ridership growth and regional economy
Expanding Workday Makes Its Mark On Transit

Travel Demand is Changing

Daily transit ridership up 58% since 1992
Subway and commuter up, bus flattening

Peak period transit travel to the CBD is flattening

Expansion of non-peak (mid-day, nights, weekends) work travel More trips within Outer Boroughs Growing non-work trips

Auto use trending down Emerging residential (Bushwick, Williamsburg) and business districts (LI City, White Plains, Downtown Brooklyn) Changes driven by emerging 24/7/365 economy

Significant MTA Ridership Growth Over 20 Years

Average Weekday Paid Rides

Millions

9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1992 2002 4.86 MTAOther NYCT 5.39m 0.53 7.04 7.71m 0.67

8.52m 0.97

7.58

2012
3

Source:MTAAnnualReports;excludesMTAB&TCrossings

Peak Hour Transit Use to CBD is Flattening

Subway Arrivals
Thousands Thousands

LIRR & MNR Arrivals

250

2,500

2,000
1,952

200

214 189

1,500
1,499

150

150
100

153

1,000
941 892

78

500
465 350

50

66

1980 1985 1990 1995

610AM

2000

2005

2011

1980

1985

1990
24Hr

1995
610AM

2000
89AM

2005

2011

24Hours

89AM

Source:NYMTCHubBounddata

Commutation Ticket Sales Trending Down, While Non-Commutation Tickets Sales Growing
MNR
80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
%Comm %NonComm

LIRR
80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
%Comm %NonComm

Source:MNRandLIRR2012Reports

Potential Growth in Work Trips to Manhattan

2010 and 2035 Increment, All Modes, by Residence of Workers NYCResidents
Thousands

SuburbanResidents
Thousands

1,200

350

2035
1,000

2035
300

2010
800

178

2010
250

59

133
600

200

150

892
400

16 28
100

248

635
200

130
50

107 9 27

Manhattan

OuterBoro

LongIsland

MidHudson

Connecticut

NewJersey
6

Source:20102035MTAforecasts

Destinations of Outer Borough Workers

All Modes
Thousands 1,400

Manhattan
1,200

WithinBoro

OtherOuterBoro

1,000

800

600

400

200

1980

1990

2000

20068

Source:CensusJTWData,selectedyears,allmodes

Annual Crossings for MTA Bridges & Tunnels Trending Down Since 2007
Millions

310 300 290 280 270 260 250 240 230

Recessions: 199091,2001,200809

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012
8

Source:MTAB&Tdata

Nationwide Auto Usage is Dropping

Key Factors Affecting Regional Travel Changes

Population continues to grow and change
Impact of Boomers and Millennials

Economy in transition: 9 to 5 becoming 24/7/365

Dominance of tech, education, health care sectors Growth of tourism and hospitality Fewer traditional 9 to 5 jobs in FIRE, management, administrative support.

Emergence of non-traditional work patterns

No longer limited to peak hours and Manhattan CBD Increase in part-time, self-employment, telecommuting-work Emergence of new regional business hubs Suburban employment growth needing more labor

Is a New Normal being established?

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Continued Population Growth in the Region

Millions

30 NewJersey OtherNYC 25 Connecticut Manhattan MidHudson NYC LongIsland MTARegion

8.09

20
6.66 6.95

16.9 14.8
2.09 2.42 3.22

15

5.86

6.08

12.9
1.57 1.63

1.71 1.93 1.79 2.75

1.78 2.03 2.83

10

1.71 2.61

7.1

2.61

8.2

9.2

5.64

5.84

6.47

6.59

7.40

1.43

1.49

1.54

1.59

1.82

1980 Source:CensusdataandMTAforecasts

1990

2000

2010

2035

11

Millennials and Boomers Changing the Region

The Millenials (born after 1980) About 22% of regional population Entering the labor force Desire to live in urban settings Did not experience 70s decay Less interest or financial ability in owning a car A tech-savvy 24 hour lifestyle The Boomers (born 1946-1964) 26% of regional population Leaving the labor force Opting to retire in place Have the financial resources to relocate to urban areas for mobility/lifestyle Growing transit dependence More off-peak travel

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Continued Employment Growth in the Region

16 NewJersey 14 OtherNYC Connecticut Manhattan MidHudson NYC LongIsland MTARegion
4.99

12 10.2 10
3.68 Millions 3.40 3.75 1.29

8.2
1.40 1.01 0.98

2.83

6.8 6
0.80 0.74 1.09 0.93 0.90

1.07 0.97 1.54

1.87

5.7

4.1

1.33 1.40

1.46

4.6
2.44

4
1.34 1.60

1.90

2
2.78 2.57 2.68 2.71

3.23

0 1980 Source:CensusdataandMTAforecasts
13

1990

2000

2010

2035

Growth in Industries Less Tied to the 9 To 5

Changes in County Employment by Industry 2000-2011
50%

30%

10%

10%

30%

50%

Wst
70%
Source:USCensusCountyBusinessPatterns

Nas

Suf

Manh

US
14

Is a New Normal Emerging?

Changing demographics and employment Growing transit use; peak hour travel flattening New 24/7/365 travel patterns spreading ridership to hours where capacity exists Transit travel to suburbs and among outer boroughs growing where capacity exists

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Moving Ahead
Prevent capacity and reliability backslide, maintain SOGR/NR Complete projects addressing longstanding problems
Build full-length Second Avenue Subway

Possible strategies to address current trends and support future growth:

Overcome subway capacity obstacles Optimize the transit, commuter rail, and bus network Create a 21st Century transit system Develop a resilient MTA network

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Complete Full-Length 2nd Ave Subway

Addresses Longstanding Problems and Continued Growth
Crowding on the Lex 456 Access to transit on East side to support population and economic growth
Phase 2: 96th Street125th Street Phase 3: 72nd StreetHouston St Phase 4: Houston Street-Hanover Sq.
Phase 2 Phase 1
(Existing) Lexington Ave / 63rd St Station

8.5 Route miles 16 new stations 1 renovated station 2 services, Transfers to other
subway lines

Phase 3

Phase 4

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Overcome Subway Capacity Obstacles

Develop network improvements to address future congestion points, e.g.: CBTC expansion Nostrand Junction Corridor capacity studies New entrances to address access at key stations
2035 Capacity Needs assuming committed network: ESA, full length SAS and 7-Line

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Optimize the Subway and Bus Network

Additional SBS service for intraborough/non-CBD travel with City commitment to street improvements Additional subway transfer points Possible use of abandoned / underutilized ROW for new non-CBD transit?

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Optimize the Rail Network and Build New Markets

LIRR Ronkonkoma 2nd track Encourage infill development near stations and commercial hubs LIRR branch service opportunities MNR Penn Station Access West of Hudson capacity Penn Station long range capacity
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Build a 21st Century Transit System

Advance technological innovations expected by a new generation of customers Real-time information and displays in stations and on vehicles System-wide electronic fare and toll payment Accessible phone/WiFi service Evaluate car/bus design approaches Open train sets (maximizes floor space) Wider, more numerous bus doors (speeds loading) Respond to flattening of peak and increasing off-peak travel demands Track maintenance windows Fleet requirements CBTC to expand capacity and reliability
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Build and Operate a Resilient MTA

A resilient transportation network is critical to the regions economic outlook Continued collaboration with regional, state, and federal partners Rebuild and strengthen critical infrastructure against future storms to improve resiliency of network Develop enhanced design guidelines that support resilient infrastructure

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Next Steps
Continue outreach to stakeholders September 2013 briefing on core capital needs to CPOC Publish Twenty Year Needs document Launch development of 2015-2019 Plan Present 2015-2019 Plan

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