Commodities Evening Update

Thursday | July 25, 2013

International Commodities

Content
Days overview Market Highlights Outlook Important Events for Today

Research Team
Reena Rohit Chief Manager Non-Agri Commodities and Currencies Reena.rohit@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6134 Anish Vyas Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Commodities Evening Update

Thursday | July 25, 2013

International Commodities
News and Analysis German Ifo Business Climate rose to 106.2-mark in July. UKs Prelim GDP increased by 0.6 percent in Q2 of 2013. Spanish Unemployment Rate fell to 26.3 percent in Q1 of 2013. European equities are trading lower today on the back of expectations that favorable economic data from US will lead to pullback in stimulus measures from the Fed. Asian markets traded on a negative note and US stock futures trading in the red. Spanish Unemployment Rate declined to 26.3 percent in Q1 of 2013 as against rise of 27.2 percent in prior quarter. German Ifo Business Climate increased by 0.3 points to 106.2-mark in July from 105.9-level in June. UKs Prelim Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased by 0.6 percent in Q2 of 2013 as against a rise of 0.3 percent in Q1 of 2013. Index of Services remained unchanged at 0.8 percent in the month of May. Spot gold prices declined around 0.5 percent today on the back of strength in the US Dollar Index (DX). Further, weak global markets coupled with decline in SPDR gold holdings which is at lowest level since February 2009 acted as a negative factor. In the Indian markets, appreciation in the Rupee added downside pressure in prices on the MCX. Taking cues from fall in gold prices along with downside in base metals complex, Spot silver prices declined around 1.1 percent today. Further, strength in the DX exerted downside pressure in prices. Appreciation in the Rupee acted as a negative factor for prices on the MCX. The base metals complex traded on a negative note on the back of weak global markets coupled with strength in the DX. Further, mixed LME inventories scenario acted as a negative factor for prices. However, sharp fall in prices was cushioned as a result of favorable economic data from Euro Zone and UK. Appreciation in the Rupee acted as a negative factor for prices on the MCX. Copper, the leader of the base metals group declined around 1 percent today on account of weak global markets coupled with strength in the DX. However, sharp downside in prices was prevented as a result of decline in LME copper inventories by 0.8 percent which stood at 622,950 tones along with positive economic data from Euro Zone and UK. On the domestic front, appreciation in the Rupee added downside pressure in prices on the MCX. Nymex crude oil prices declined around 0.8 percent today on the back of rise in US crude oil output. Further, strength in the DX coupled with weak global markets acted as a negative factor. On the domestic bourses, appreciation in the Rupee added downside pressure for prices on the MCX. Performance during the day
Index Nifty Sensex Nikkei Kospi FTSE Open High

as at 4.30 pm 25 July 13
Low Last % Chg from Prev day

5970.40 20062.00 14747.21 1906.57 16442.14

5990.65 20110.81 14748.77 1913.91 16465.28

5896.40 19763.90 14533.21 1904.44 16261.63

5907.50 19804.76 14562.93 1909.61 16261.63

-1.39 -1.42 -1.14 -0.13 -0.95

Source: Reuters

as at 4.30 pm 25 July 13
Currency Dollar Index Euro/$ Spot INR/$ Spot Open 82.45 1.3198 59.122 High 82.50 1.3235 59.37 Low 82.145 1.3164 58.725 Current 82.33 1.3194 59.175 % Chg from Prev day -0.08 -0.05 -0.11
Source: Reuters

as at 4.30 pm 25 July 13
Commodity Spot Gold Comex Gold Aug13 MCX Gold Aug13 Spot Silver Comex Silver Sept13 MCX Silver Sept13 Crude Oil Nymex Aug 13 ICE -Brent Crude Oil MCX Crude Oil Aug 13 Copper LME - 3 Month MCX Copper Aug13 Zinc LME - 3 Month Zinc MCX - July13 Lead LME - 3 Month Lead MCX - July13 Nickel LME - 3 Month Nickel MCX July13 Aluminum LME - 3 Month Aluminum MCX July13 Unit Open High Low Last % Chg from Prev day

$/oz $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz $/oz

1320.79 1318.50

1323.89 1318.50

1308.74 1318.50

1314.25 1318.50

-0.49 -0.09

27255.00 20.12 0.1983

27304.0 20.16 0.1983

27012.0 19.77 0.1983

27092.00 19.91 0.1983

-0.54 -1.14 -0.92

Rs/kg $/bbl

41452

41452

40661

40860

-1.18

105.37

105.44

104.42

104.50

-0.84

$/bbl Rs/bbl $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne

107.11 6261 7028.75 419.00

107.20 6261 7037.50 419.40

106.54 6192 6943.25 413.40

106.71 6203 6949.50 413.90

-0.45 -1.02 -0.95 -1.37

1885.00 110.05 2063

1892.00 110.10 2072

1868.75 108.70 2050

1874.50 108.75 2053

-0.50 -1.27 -0.51

Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg

121.90 14325 843.00 1847.00 106.80

121.90 14335 844.20 1849.75 106.90

120.70 14130 832.20 1829.00 105.80

120.80 14170 835.00 1830.50 105.95

-0.98 -1.06 -1.31 -0.85 -1.26

Commodities Evening Update

Thursday | July 25, 2013

International Commodities
Outlook

In the evening session, we expect precious metals, base metals and crude oil prices to trade lower on the back of weakness in global markets coupled with strength in the DX. Additionally, forecast for favorable economic data from US will lead to expectations of pullback in its stimulus measures from the Federal Reserve thereby exerting downside pressure on prices. However, if data doesnt comes as estimates sharp downside can be cushioned or reversal can be seen in the commodities.

Technical Outook for evening session 25 July 13 ( CMP as of 4.30 pm)

Commodity Gold Aug'13 Spot Gold Silver Sept13 Spot Silver Crude Oil Aug13 Nymex Crude Oil Aug13 Natural Gas July13 LME Copper Copper Aug13 Zinc July13 Lead July13 Aluminum July13 Nickel July13 Unit Rs/10 gm $/oz Rs /kg $/oz Rs /bbl $/bbl Rs /mmBtu $/tonne Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Support 2 Support 1 CMP Resistance1 Resistance 2

26800 1293 40300 19.60 6120 103.2 213 6840 409 107.3 119.2 104.8 824

26950 1306 40600 19.74 6165 104.25 216 6890 412 108 120 105.5 830

27085 1313.5 40813 19.87 6208 104.6 218.2 6954 414.25 109 120.95 106.05 835

27230 1326 41100 20.12 6260 105.5 221 7030 417 109.8 121.8 106.9 842

27400 1339 41460 20.3 6310 106.3 223 7060 420 110.5 122.5 107.5 852

Important Events for Today

Indicator Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact

Spanish Unemployment Rate German Ifo Business Climate M3 Money Supply y/y Prelim GDP q/q Core Durable Goods Orders m/m Unemployment Claims Durable Goods Orders m/m Treasury Sec Lew Speaks

Euro Euro Euro UK US US US US

12:30pm 1:30pm 1:30pm 2:00pm 6:00pm 6:00pm 6:00pm 6:15pm

26.3% 106.2 2.3% 0.6% -

27.2% 106.3 3.0% 0.6% 0.5% 339K 1.1% -

27.2% 105.9 2.9% 0.3% 0.5% 334K 3.7% -

Medium High Medium High High High Medium Medium