Currencies Daily Report

Tuesday| July 23, 2013

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Reena Rohit Chief Manager Non-Agri Commodities and Currencies Reena.rohit@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6134 Anish Vyas Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Currencies Daily Report

Tuesday| July 23, 2013

Highlights
Asian markets trading at highest level in the last two months. Indian Rupee depreciated around 0.7 percent in yesterdays trade. US Existing Home Sales declined to 5.08 million in the last month month. Asian markets are trading higher today on the back of decline in US existing home sales data which eased concerns that Fed will pullback its stimulus measures within two months. US Existing Home Sales declined to 5.08 million in June as against a rise of 5.14 million a month ago. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) stepped in again to tighten gold imports by making them dependent on exports volume which is done to reduce the record high current deficit of the country. ntry. The central bank said importers s have to retain 20 percent of gold imports in customs warehouses and thereafter will only be able to buy more after their exports are equivalent to 75 percent of the retained amount which has been shipped.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last Prev. day

as on July 22, 2013 WoW MoM YoY

NIFTY SENSEX DJIA S&P FTSE KOSPI BOVESPA NIKKEI Nymex Crude (Aug13) - $/bbl Comex Gold (Aug13) - $/oz Comex Silver(Sept13) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne CRB Index (Industrial) G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% - Yield

6031.8 20159.1 15545.55 1695.5 16233.6 1959.2 58497.8 14506.3 106.91 1293.30 19.45

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 -1.5 0.2 0.2 -1.1 0.7 0.4

0.0 0.6 0.4 0.8 4.1 4.5 25.2 -0.1 0.6 0.7 -1.9

6.6 7.7 6.0 6.5 5.7 10.0 24.7 9.8 12.3 1.3 -0.2

15.1 10.2 21.2 24.4 27.8 2.0 10.3 66.3 16.9 -18.2 -28.7

US Dollar Index
The US Dollar Index (DX) declined around 0.5 percent in yesterdays trading session on the back of rise in risk appetite in global markets which led to fall in demand for the currency. Further, declined in US existing home sales data eased concerns from rom Federal Reserve regarding cut in its stimulus measures exerted downside pressure on the currency. The DX touched an intra-day day low of 82.13 and closed at 82.32 on Monday.

7010.00 102.09

1.3 0.0 -

1.0

-10.7 -

-5.7 1.7

5.0

3.8

Source: Reuters

Dollar/INR
The Indian Rupee depreciated around 0.7 percent in yesterdays trading session. The currency depreciated on the back of statement from government regarding not considering issuing a sale of sovereign bonds to offshore investors at present. This led to dampening of hopes f for dollar inflows and exerting downside pressure on the currency. However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned as a result of weakness in the DX coupled with upbeat domestic market sentiments. Further, expectations that Indian government aims to attract dollar inflow from non-resident citizens (NRI) or allow some e companies to raise debt abroad provided respite to fall in the Rupee. The currency touched an intra-day day low of 59.73 and closed at 59.72 on Monday. For the month of July 2013, FII outflows totaled at Rs.5,605.60 crores nd ($933.80 million) as on 22 July y 2013. Year to date basis, net capital nd inflows stood at Rs.66,572.80 crores ($12,567 million) till 22 July 2013. Outlook From the intra-day day perspective, we expect Rupee to appreciate on the back of rise in risk appetite in global and domestic market s sentiments. Further, weakness in the DX will support an upside in the currency. Additionally, expectations of measures taken by government to attract inflow of dollar through NRIs or allowing companies to raise debt abroad will act as a positive factor.

US Dollar (% change)
Last Prev. day WoW

as on July 22, 2013 MoM YoY

Dollar Index US $ / INR (Spot) US $ / INR July13 Futures (NSE) US $ / INR July13 Futures (MCX-SX)

82.32 59.72 59.69 59.69

-0.5 -0.7 0.25 0.27

-1.1 0.1 -0.61 -0.62

-0.4 -0.3 0.59 0.58

3.6 -6.4 7.86 7.87

Technical Chart USD/INR

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Trend US Dollar/INR July13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways

valid for July 23, 2013 Support 59.40/59.20 Resistance 59.85/60.10

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Currencies Daily Report

Tuesday| July 23, 2013

Euro/INR
The Euro appreciated around 0.3 percent in the yesterdays trade on the back of weakness in the DX. Further, upbeat global market sentiments supported an upside in the currency. 1.3183 The Euro touched an intra-day high of 1.3218 and closed at 1.31 against the dollar on Monday. Outlook In todays session, we expect Euro to trade on a positive note on the back of weakness in the DX. Additionally, upbeat global markets will support an upside in the currency. Further, expectations of favorable consumer confidence data will act as a positive factor. Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR July13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up 78.40/78.20 78.90/79.20 valid for July 23, 2013 Support Resistance

Euro (% change)
Last Prev. day

as on July 22, 2013 WoW MoM YoY

Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR July 13 Futures (NSE) Euro / INR July13 Futures (MCX-SX)

1.3183 78.73 78.7 78.7

0.3 -1.0 0.67 0.63

0.9 -0.8 0.56 0.56

-0.3 0.0 0.47 0.42

8.8 -13.9 16.20 16.21

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Euro

GBP/INR
The Sterling Pound appreciated around 0.6 percent taking cues from weakness in the DX. Additionally, upbeat global markets supported an upside in the currency. 1.5384 and closed at The Sterling Pound touched an intra-day high of 1.5 1.5359 against dollar on Monday. Outlook We expect the Sterling Pound to strengthen today as world markets trade on a positive note and this coupled with weakness in the Dollar Index will be supportive for the currency. Additionally, expectations of favorable economic data from the country will act as a positive factor factor. Further, statement from UK Prime Minister David Cameron that improving economy will l allow government to cut taxes along with expectations of rise in Prelim GDP of the country during the week will support an upside in the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR July 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up valid for July 23, 2013 Support 91.30/91.10 Resistance 91.60/91.80

Source: Telequote

GBP (% change)

as on July 22, 2013

Last

Prev. day

WoW

MoM

YoY

$ / GBP (Spot) GBP / INR (Spot) GBP / INR July13 Futures (NSE) GBP / INR July 13 Futures (MCX-SX)

1.5359 91.76 91.56

0.61 1.26 0.68

1.7 2.40 1.27

-1.0 0.38 -0.05

-0.9 6.18 5.49

91.59

0.71

1.27

-0.01

5.50

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Sterling Pound

Source: Telequote

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Currencies Daily Report

Tuesday| July 23, 2013

JPY/INR
JPY (% change) The Japanese Yen appreciated around 1 percent in the yesterdays trade on account of political developments in the country. However, sharp rise in currency was capped as a result of rise in risk appetite in the global markets. The Yen touched an intra-day high of 99.28 and closed at 99.64 against dollar on Monday. Outlook In todays session, we expect Japanese Yen to depreciate on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global markets which will lead to fall in demand for the low yielding currency. Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR July 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways valid for July 23, 2013 Support 59.40/59.20 Resistance 59.90/60.10 Last 99.64 0.601 Prev day -1.0 1.95 as on July 22, 2013 WoW -0.2 -0.08 MoM 2.4 -0.71 YoY 27.2 -14.71

JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR July13 Futures (NSE) JPY 100 / INR July13 Futures (MCX-SX)

59.72 59.74

0.53 0.58

-0.47 -0.39

-1.55 -1.48

-15.12 -15.08

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart JPY

Source: Telequote

Economic Indicators to be released on July 23, 2013

Indicator Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact

BBA Mortgage Approvals

UK

2:00pm

38.5K

36.1K

Medium

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