Currencies Daily Report

Wednesday| July 24, 2013

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Reena Rohit Chief Manager Non-Agri Commodities and Currencies Reena.rohit@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6134 Anish Vyas Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

Angel Broking Ltd. Registered Office: G-1, Ackruti Trade Centre, Rd. No. 7, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Corporate Office: 6th Floor, Ackruti Star, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Tel: (022) 2921 2000 Currency: INE231279838 / MCX Currency Sebi Regn No: INE261279838 / Member ID: 10500

Disclaimer: The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. The company d does oes not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. The document is not, and should not be construed as an offer er to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose without prior permission from Angel Broking Ltd. Your feedback is appreciated on currencies@angelbroking.com

www.angelbroking.com

Currencies Daily Report

Wednesday| July 24, 2013

Highlights
US House Price Index (HPI) increased by 0.7 percent in April. European Consumer Confidence dropped to -17-mark mark in last month. BBA Mortgage Approvals increased by 1,000 to 37,300 in June. Chinas HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI declined to 47.7 47.7-mark in July.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last Prev. day

as on July 23, 2013 WoW MoM YoY

NIFTY SENSEX DJIA S&P FTSE KOSPI BOVESPA NIKKEI Nymex Crude (Aug13) - $/bbl Comex Gold (Aug13) - $/oz Comex Silver(Sept13) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne CRB Index (Industrial) G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% - Yield

6077.8 20302.1 15567.74 1692.4 16238.6 1959.2 58497.8 14506.3 107.23 1335.10 20.25

0.8 0.7 0.1 -0.2 0.0 -1.5 0.2 0.2 0.3 -0.1 -1.2

2.1 2.3 0.8 1.0 4.6 5.0 24.8 -0.1 1.2 4.5 4.3

7.2 8.1 5.5 6.3 5.2 9.9 24.0 6.1 12.5 8.6 8.9

18.8 11.0 22.4 25.3 31.4 2.0 11.1 66.3 21.7 -15.3 -24.4

Asian markets are trading lower today on the back of decline in Chinas manufacturing data leading to signals of slowdown in worlds second largest economy. US House Price Index (HPI) increased by 0.7 percent in April as against a rise of 0.5 percent a month ago. Richmond Manufacturing Index fell to 11-mark in July from previous rise of 8-level in June. Chinas HSBC Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Inde Index (PMI) declined by 0.5 points to 47.7-mark mark in July from previous 48.2 48.2-level in June.

US Dollar Index
The US Dollar Index (DX) declined around 0.3 percent in yesterdays trading session on the back of rise in risk appetite in global markets which led to fall in demand for the currency. Further, favorable economic data from US exerted downside pressure on the currency. The DX touched an intra-day low of 82.01 and closed at 82. 82.04 on Tuesday.

7048.00 102.09

0.5 0.0 -

0.6

-10.2 -

-4.7 1.6

8.7

4.1

Dollar/INR
US Dollar (% change) The Indian Rupee traded on a flat note and depreciated marginally around 0.1 percent in yesterdays trading session. The currency depreciated on the back of late dollar demand from corporate sector sector. Further, outflow of foreign funds from equities and debt exerted downside pressure on the currency. However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned as a result of weakness in the DX coupled with upbeat domestic market sentiments. Further, Reserve Bank of India (RBI) move to tighten gold imports making them dependent on export volumes in order to reduce the current account deficit of the country prevented sharp fall in the Rupee Rupee. The currency touched an intra-day low of 59.87 87 and closed at 5 59.75 on Tuesday. For the month of July 2013, FII outflows totaled at Rs.5,605.60 crores nd ($933.80 million) as on 22 July 2013. Year to date basis, net capital nd inflows stood at Rs.66,572.80 crores ($12,567 million) till 22 July 2013. Outlook From the intra-day day perspective, we expect Rupee to depreciate on the back of rise in risk aversion in global and domestic market sentiments. Further, strength in the DX coupled with dollar demand from corporate will exert downside pressure in the currency. However, sharp downside in the currency will be cushioned or reversal can be seen on account of restrictions by RBI on banks to tighten liquidity.
Last Prev. day WoW

Source: Reuters

as on July 23, 2013 MoM YoY

Dollar Index US $ / INR (Spot) US $ / INR July13 Futures (NSE) US $ / INR July13 Futures (MCX-SX)

82.04 59.75 59.84 59.83

-0.3 -0.1 0.26 0.23

-0.7 -0.8 0.91 0.89

-0.9 -0.8 0.85 0.82

3.3 -6.0 6.83 6.74

Technical Chart USD/INR

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Trend US Dollar/INR July13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up

valid for July 24, 2013 Support 59.55/59.30 Resistance 60.0/60.24

www.angelbroking.com

Currencies Daily Report

Wednesday| July 24, 2013

Euro/INR
The Euro appreciated around 0.3 percent in the yesterdays trade on the back of weakness in the DX. Further, upbeat global market sentiments supported an upside in the currency. Additionally, favorable consumer confidence data from the region acted as a positive factor. The Euro touched an intra-day high of 1.3238 and closed at 1.3221 against the dollar on Tuesday. mark in June as against European Consumer Confidence dropped to -17-mark -19-level in May. Outlook In todays session, we expect Euro to trade on a negative note on the back of strength in the DX. Additionally, weak global markets will exert downside pressure in the currency. However, sharp downside will be cushioned or reversal can be seen on account of expectations of favorable manufacturing and services data from the region region. Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR July13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up 78.50/78.20 79.15/79.40 valid for July 24, 2013 Support Resistance

Euro (% change)
Last Prev. day

as on July 23, 2013 WoW MoM YoY

Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR July 13 Futures (NSE) Euro / INR July13 Futures (MCX-SX)

1.3221 79.00 78.9 78.9

0.3 -0.3 0.23 0.27

0.5 -1.2 1.30 1.26

0.8 -1.6 0.70 0.69

9.6 -14.2 16.15 16.16

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Euro

Source: Telequote

GBP (% change)

as on July 23, 2013

GBP/INR
The Sterling Pound appreciated around 0.1 percent taking cues from weakness in the DX. Additionally, upbeat global markets supported an upside in the currency. day high of 1.5 1.5391 and closed at The Sterling Pound touched an intra-day 1.5367 against dollar on Tuesday. British Bankers' Association (BBA) Mortgage Approvals increased by 1,000 to 37,300 in June as against a rise of 36,300 a month ago. Outlook We expect the Sterling Pound to weaken today as world markets trade on a negative note and this coupled with strength in the Dollar Index will add downside pressure for the currency. Further, , industrial or orders data expected to come on an unfavorable note which will exert more downside pressure. Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR July 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up valid for July 24, 2013 Support 91.50/91.15 Resistance

Last

Prev. day

WoW

MoM

YoY

$ / GBP (Spot) GBP / INR (Spot) GBP / INR July13 Futures (NSE) GBP / INR July 13 Futures (MCX-SX)

1.5367 91.885 91.84

0.05 0.14 0.31

1.4 2.54 2.55

-0.3 0.52 0.26

-0.9 5.80 5.59

91.88

0.32

2.59

0.32

5.58

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Sterling Pound

Source: Telequote

92.10/92.40

www.angelbroking.com

Currencies Daily Report

Wednesday| July 24, 2013

JPY/INR
JPY (% change) The Japanese Yen appreciated around 0.2 percent in the yesterdays trade on account of political developments in the country. However, sharp rise in currency was capped as a result of rise in risk appetite in the global markets. The Yen touched an intra-day high of 99.13 and closed at 99.40 against dollar on Tuesday. Japans Trade Balance at a deficit of 0.60 trillion Yen in June as against a previous deficit of 0.78 trillion Yen in May. Outlook In todays session, we expect Japanese Yen to appreciate preciate on the back of rise in risk aversion in the global markets which will lead to increase in demand for the low yielding currency. Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR July 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways valid for July 24, 2013 Support 59.45/59.10 Resistance
Source: Telequote

as on July 23, 2013 Last 99.4 0.601 59.85 59.84 Prev day -0.2 -0.10 0.21 0.17 WoW 0.3 0.49 0.17 0.18 MoM 1.5 -0.81 -1.34 -1.32 YoY 27.2 -15.95 -16.33 -16.37

JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR July13 Futures (NSE) JPY 100 / INR July13 Futures (MCX-SX)

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart JPY

60.15/60.45

Economic Indicators to be released on July 24 24, 2013

Indicator Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact

Trade Balance HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI French Flash Manufacturing PMI French Flash Services PMI German Flash Manufacturing PMI German Flash Services PMI Flash Manufacturing PMI Flash Services PMI CBI Industrial Order Expectations Flash Manufacturing PMI New Home Sales Crude Oil Inventories

Japan China Euro Euro Euro Euro Euro Euro UK US US US

5:20am 7:15am 12:30pm 12:30pm 1:00pm 1:00pm 1:30pm 1:30pm 3:30pm 6:30pm 7:30pm 8:00pm

-0.60% 47.7 -

-0.58T 48.6 48.9 47.7 49.3 50.9 49.1 48.9 -12 52.5 482K -

-0.82T 48.2 48.4 47.2 48.6 50.4 48.8 48.3 -18 51.9 476K -6.9M

Medium High High Medium High Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium High Medium

www.angelbroking.com