Commodities Evening Update

Wednesday | July 24, 2013

International Commodities

Content
Days overview Market Highlights Outlook Important Events for Today

Research Team
Reena Rohit Chief Manager Non-Agri Commodities and Currencies Reena.rohit@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6134 Anish Vyas Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Commodities Evening Update

Wednesday | July 24, 2013

International Commodities
News and Analysis European Flash Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1-mark in July. US crude oil inventories expected to fall 2.5 mn bbl Reuters. German Manufacturing PMI gained to 50.3-mark in current month. European equities are trading higher today after favorable manufacturing and services data from the region. Asian markets traded on a mixed note and US stock futures trading in the green. French Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) increased by 1.4 points to 49.8-mark in July as against a rise of 48.4level in June. German Flash Manufacturing PMI gained by 1.7 points to 50.3-mark in July as compared to 48.6-level in June. European Flash Manufacturing PMI increase by 1.3 points to 50.1-mark in July as compared to 48.8-level in previous month. Spot gold prices declined around 0.3 percent today on the back of strength in the US Dollar Index (DX). However, sharp downside in prices was capped on account of recovery in global market sentiments. In the Indian markets, appreciation in the Rupee capped sharp gains in prices on the MCX. Taking cues from fall in gold prices along with strength in the DX, Spot silver prices declined around 0.2 percent today. However, sharp downside in prices was cushioned on the back of upside in base metals complex. Appreciation in the Rupee cushioned sharp fall in prices on the MCX. The base metals complex traded on a positive note on the back of favorable manufacturing data from Euro Zone. Further, decline in LME inventories scenario coupled with recovery in market sentiments supported an upside in prices. However, sharp rise in prices was capped as a result of strength in the DX. Appreciation in the Rupee acted as a negative factor for prices on the MCX. Copper, the leader of the base metals group increased around 1 percent today on account of favorable manufacturing data from Euro Zone. Further, decline in LME copper inventories by 0.7 percent which stood at 627,050 tonnes coupled with recovery in global markets supported an upside in prices. On the domestic front, appreciation in the Rupee capped sharp upside in prices on the MCX. Nymex crude oil prices traded on a flat note and declined marginally around 0.1 percent today on the back of strength in the DX. However, sharp downside in prices was capped on account of recovery in global market sentiments coupled with expectations of decline in US crude oil inventories. On the domestic bourses, appreciation in the Rupee acted as a negative factor for prices on the MCX. The US Energy Department (EIA) is scheduled to release its weekly inventories report today at 8:00pm IST and US crude oil inventories is expected to fall by 2.5 million barrels for the week ending on 19th July 2013. Performance during the day
Index Nifty Sensex Nikkei Kospi FTSE Open High

as at 4.30 pm 24 July 13
Low Last % Chg from Prev day

6032.20 20200.20 14719.64 1904.07 16273.97

6047.25 20252.70 14751.87 1914.41 16384.94

5962.60 19994.25 14630.68 1901.15 16254.33

5990.50 20090.68 14731.28 1912.08 16254.33

-1.44 -1.04 -0.32 0.42 0.89

Source: Reuters

as at 4.30 pm 24 July 13
Currency Dollar Index Euro/$ Spot INR/$ Spot Open High Low Current % Chg from Prev day

82.12 1.3222 59.75

82.32 1.3254 59.75

82.02 1.3188 58.945

82.135 1.3234 59.06

0.12 0.10 -1.15

Source: Reuters

as at 4.30 pm 24 July 13
Commodity Spot Gold Comex Gold Aug13 MCX Gold Aug13 Spot Silver Comex Silver Sept13 MCX Silver Sept13 Crude Oil Nymex Aug 13 ICE -Brent Crude Oil MCX Crude Oil Aug 13 Copper LME - 3 Month MCX Copper Aug13 Zinc LME - 3 Month Zinc MCX - July13 Lead LME - 3 Month Lead MCX - July13 Nickel LME - 3 Month Nickel MCX July13 Aluminum LME - 3 Month Aluminum MCX July13 Unit Open High Low Last % Chg from Prev day

$/oz $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz $/oz

1347.19 1342.20 27600.00 20.48 0.2038 41854 107.36 108.44 6380 7053.00 421.25 1885.25 110.05 2056 121.70 14115 834.00 1846.00 107.00

1347.69 1345.10 27716.0 20.50 0.2041 42089 107.52 108.60 6398 7115.00 423.20 1902.00 110.50 2078 122.10 14209 837.70 1852.00 107.00

1338.14 1341.00 27510.0 20.17 0.20345 41661 106.87 107.70 6348 6975.00 417.40 1874.00 109.70 2047 121.10 14025 830.80 1825.00 106.40

1343.81 1341.00 27570.00 20.40 0.2035 41771 107.14 107.84 6348 7115.00 422.50 1902.00 110.25 2078 121.90 14172 834.90 1851.00 106.85

-0.27 0.44 -0.01 -0.24 0.51 -0.20 -0.08 -0.53 -0.70 0.95 0.15 0.77 -0.23 0.62 -0.20 0.30 -0.31 0.27 -0.51

Rs/kg $/bbl

$/bbl Rs/bbl $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne

Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg

Source: Reuters

Commodities Evening Update

Wednesday | July 24, 2013

International Commodities
Outlook

In the evening session, we expect precious metals, base metals and crude oil prices to trade higher on the back of recovery in global markets. Further, weakness in the DX will support an upside in prices. Additionally, favorable manufacturing and services data from Euro along with expectations of positive home sales and manufacturing data from US which will act as a positive factor. Crude oil prices will get support from expectations of decline in US crude oil inventories.

Technical Outook for evening session 24 July 13 ( CMP as of 4.30 pm)

Commodity Gold Aug'13 Spot Gold Silver Sept13 Spot Silver Crude Oil Aug13 Nymex Crude Oil Aug13 Natural Gas July13 LME Copper Copper Aug13 Zinc July13 Lead July13 Aluminum July13 Nickel July13 Unit Rs/10 gm $/oz Rs /kg $/oz Rs /bbl $/bbl Rs /mmBtu $/tonne Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Support 2 27350 1318 41200 19.86 6280 106 216 6940 415 108.8 120.4 105.5 824 Support 1 27460 1332 41500 20.15 6330 106.7 218 6990 418 109.6 121 106.1 830 CMP 27542 1340.1 41735 20.32 6357 107.12 219.9 7082 421.6 110.4 121.9 106.9 835 Resistance1 27720 1354 42150 20.66 6410 108.1 222 7100 425 111 122.6 107.6 842 Resistance 2 27850 1362 42450 20.88 6460 108.9 225 7140 427 111.6 123.4 108.3 849

Important Events for Today

Indicator Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact

Trade Balance HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI French Flash Manufacturing PMI French Flash Services PMI German Flash Manufacturing PMI German Flash Services PMI Flash Manufacturing PMI Flash Services PMI CBI Industrial Order Expectations Flash Manufacturing PMI New Home Sales Crude Oil Inventories

Japan China Euro Euro Euro Euro Euro Euro UK US US US

5:20am 7:15am 12:30pm 12:30pm 1:00pm 1:00pm 1:30pm 1:30pm 3:30pm 6:30pm 7:30pm 8:00pm

-0.60% 47.7 49.8 48.3 50.3 52.5 50.1 49.6 -12 -

-0.58T 48.6 48.9 47.7 49.3 50.9 49.1 48.9 -12 52.5 482K -2.5M

-0.82T 48.2 48.4 47.2 48.6 50.4 48.8 48.3 -18 51.9 476K -6.9M

Medium High High Medium High Medium Medium Medium Medium Medium High Medium