Commodities Evening Update

Friday | July 26, 2013

International Commodities

Content
Days overview Market Highlights Outlook Important Events for Today

Research Team
Reena Rohit Chief Manager Non-Agri Commodities and Currencies Reena.rohit@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6134 Anish Vyas Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Commodities Evening Update

Friday | July 26, 2013

International Commodities
News and Analysis European equities erase gains, US stock futures trading down today. German Import Prices declined by 0.8 percent in the last month. LME Copper inventories fell around 0.3 percent in todays trade. European equities are trading lower today ahead of the US consumer sentiments data in the evening session. Asian markets traded on a mixed note and US stock futures trading in the red. German Import Prices declined by 0.8 percent in June as against a previous fall of 0.4 percent a month ago. Spot gold prices increased around 0.4 percent today on the back of weakness in the US Dollar Index (DX). However, weak global markets coupled with decline in SPDR gold holdings which is at lowest level since February 2009 capped sharp gains in prices. In the Indian markets, appreciation in the Rupee added downside pressure in prices on the MCX. Taking cues from fall in base metals complex, Spot silver prices declined around 0.8 percent today. However, sharp downside in prices was cushioned as a result of weakness in the DX along with rise in gold prices. Appreciation in the Rupee acted as a negative factor for prices on the MCX. The base metals complex traded on a negative note on the back of weak global markets. Further, mixed LME inventories scenario acted as a negative factor for prices. However, sharp fall in prices was cushioned as a result of weakness in the DX. Appreciation in the Rupee acted as a negative factor for prices on the MCX. Copper, the leader of the base metals group declined more than 1 percent today on account of weak global markets. However, sharp downside in prices was prevented as a result of decline in LME copper inventories by 0.3 percent which stood at 621,175 tonnes. On the domestic front, appreciation in the Rupee added downside pressure in prices on the MCX. Nymex crude oil prices declined around 0.7 percent today on the back of rise in US crude oil output during the week. Additionally, weak global markets exerted downside pressure on prices. However, weakness in the DX cushioned sharp downside in prices. On the domestic bourses, appreciation in the Rupee added downside pressure for prices on the MCX. Performance during the day
Index Nifty Sensex Nikkei Kospi FTSE Open 5937.95 19892.47 14339.39 1912.05 High 5944.50 19907.45 14376.01 1915.97

as at 4.30 pm 26 July 13
Low 5869.50 19699.76 14114.52 1902.47 Last 5886.20 19748.19 14129.98 1910.81 % Chg from Prev day -0.36 -0.29 -2.97 0.06

16475.01

16538.52

16369.10

16369.10

-0.15
Source: Reuters

as at 4.30 pm 26 July 13
Currency Dollar Index Euro/$ Spot INR/$ Spot Open 81.88 1.3276 58.997 High 81.92 1.3296 59.065 Low 81.67 1.3259 58.693 Current 81.795 1.3267 59.015 % Chg from Prev day -0.31 -0.07 0.11
Source: Reuters

as at 4.30 pm 26 July 13
Commodity Spot Gold Comex Gold Aug13 MCX Gold Aug13 Spot Silver Comex Silver Sept13 MCX Silver Sept13 Crude Oil Nymex Aug 13 ICE -Brent Crude Oil MCX Crude Oil Aug 13 Copper LME - 3 Month MCX Copper Aug13 Zinc LME - 3 Month Zinc MCX - July13 Lead LME - 3 Month Lead MCX - July13 Nickel LME - 3 Month Nickel MCX July13 Aluminum LME - 3 Month Aluminum MCX July13 Unit Open High Low Last % Chg from Prev day

$/oz $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz $/oz

1333.35 1318.50

1340.21 1336.80

1326.75 1318.50

1328.15 1329.00

-0.37 0.70

27442.00 20.21 0.20255

27510.0 20.32 0.2029

27311.0 20.00 0.2011

27398.00 20.04 0.2013

-0.02 -0.84 -0.08

Rs/kg $/bbl

41327

41460

41020

41167

-0.65

105.56

105.63

104.61

104.76

-0.69

$/bbl Rs/bbl $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne

107.59 6252 7025.75 415.90

107.79 6252 7035.00 415.90

106.88 6182 6935.00 412.00

107.12 6208 6938.75 413.05

-0.49 -0.85 -1.02 -1.07

1879.00 108.70 2075

1881.25 108.80 2077

1863.00 108.10 2061

1864.00 108.35 2063

-0.69 -0.78 -0.55

Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg

121.60 14150 831.00 1825.00 105.65

121.60 14205 833.40 1829.00 105.70

121.00 14060 826.90 1806.50 104.20

121.35 14060 828.10 1807.50 104.45

-0.53 -0.69 -0.59 -0.90 -1.00

Commodities Evening Update

Friday | July 26, 2013

International Commodities
Outlook

In the evening session, we expect precious metals, base metals and crude oil prices to trade lower on the back of weakness in global markets coupled with strength in the DX. Additionally, forecast for favorable economic data from US will lead to expectations of pullback in its stimulus measures from the Federal Reserve thereby exerting downside pressure on prices. However, if data doesnt come as per the estimates sharp downside can be cushioned or reversal can be seen in the commodities.

Technical Outook for evening session 26 July 13 ( CMP as of 4.30 pm)

Commodity Gold Aug'13 Spot Gold Silver Sept13 Spot Silver Crude Oil Aug13 Nymex Crude Oil Aug13 Natural Gas July13 LME Copper Copper Aug13 Zinc July13 Lead July13 Aluminum July13 Nickel July13 Unit Rs/10 gm $/oz Rs /kg $/oz Rs /bbl $/bbl Rs /mmBtu $/tonne Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Support 2 Support 1 CMP Resistance1 Resistance 2

27120 1310 40650 19.70 6120 103.4 209 6860 409 106.8 120 103 817

27250 1323 40900 20 6170 104.5 211 6890 411 107.4 120.6 103.7 823

27385 1329 41150 20.06 6202 104.74 213.7 6938 412.55 108.25 121.25 104.4 828.2

27530 1339 41460 20.43 6250 105.5 216 7000 416 109.1 122 105.7 836

27700 1353 41800 20.65 6290 106.3 219 7050 419 109.7 122.7 106.5 842

Important Events for Today

Indicator Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact

Tokyo Core CPI y/y Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment

Japan US

5:00pm 7:25pm

0.4% -

0.3% 84.0

0.2% 83.9

Medium Medium