4/15/13

On CAD & JPY

Ghufran Sharif
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Original Post: Apr 10, 2013 16:47 GMT (All times/dates in this Premium Entry are GMT) Update: Apr 12, 2013 17:24 GMT We're adding 3 new shorts for GOLD and 4 new charts in Gold & Silver. SIlver's short remains in progress.
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tw itter.com /alaidiPrem ium FX Watching "Broken Cameras" Oscar-nominated doc on the grow ing Israeli annexation of Palestenian land (43 min ago) Charting the Battle of the Uglies: GOLD vs YEN http://t.co/KqnkQaBuE8 #yen #commodities $GLD (4 hr ago) Important to distinguish the 4 gold & silver charts for latest Premium trades http://t.co/lzrz2MslQY #forex $GLD (7 hr ago)

Update: Apr 11, 2013 15:30 GMT Added 2 new shorts in Gold in addition to the existing 1 short as well as 2 new charts (Weekly & monthly). What appeared to be temporary spike on the fastest of monthly stochastics (upper panel) is now starting to flatten and joining the lower 2 panels in a negative convergence. As always, selecting the stops is half the battle in these trades. See chart below

FX Markets Freeze as Plunge - 3 Gold Premium trades issued http://t.co/lzrz2MslQY #forex $GLD (yesterday) "Conservative" w as the last w ord of my gold interview earlier this morning http://t.co/uIXDw 0Gcbt #forex $GLD (2 days ago) FX Frozen by Metals Damage http://t.co/lzrz2MslQY #forex (2 days ago) @jasminetrader All directions here http://t.co/rGOY5sSFOQ (2 days ago) Premium susbcribers see 3 new trades on gold & 4 new charts on SIlver and Gold http://t.co/rGOY5sSFOQ #forex (2 days ago) 3 Gold added (2 days ago) http://t.co/U8E2Jn6AUl (2 days ago)

Update: Apr 10, 2013 17:00 GMT We're focusing on cautiously aproaching yen weakness ahead of next week's G-20 meetings in Washington and the Bank of Canada policy decision, which will likely issue a downgrade of economic conditions at its Apr 17 meeting. CPI and BoE minutes from the UK will also be crucial in determining sterling's testing of the key 1.530-20 territory.

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Trades
EURUSD

On CAD & JPY

10 Apr: Euro is a little lower after the earlier than scheduled release of the FOMC minutes, which showed the usual discussions about considering to slow down asset purchases. There is no change in the balance of members wanting tighter policy (1 member wants tighter policy in 2013, 4 members in 2014, 13 members in 2105 and 1 member in 2106). Euro runs out of steam right at the 55-DMA of 1.3120, which is a similar exhaustion around the same average as on Feb 25. Although daily momentum appears to fade, weeklies remain robust, targeting the 100-WMA of 13250s. This explains our decision to place the final limits near 1.3155-1.3180 for our existing longs. The subsequent short stands higher and is a reflection of converging negativity in the longer-term stochastics. We sick with the 3 trades.
ENTRY 09 Apr LONG 09 Apr LONG 09 Apr SHORT 03 Apr LONG 28 Mar LONG 20 Mar LONG 26 Mar SHORT EURUSD EURUSD EURUSD EURUSD EURUSD EURUSD EURUSD 1.3020 - 1.3060 1.3030 - 1.3070 1.3200 - 1.3240 1.2720 - 1.2760 1.2740 - 1.2780 1.2900 - 1.2940 1.2970 - 1.3000 LIMIT 1.3130 - 1.3155 1.3140 - 1.3180 1.3100 - 1.3140 1.2820 - 1.2860 1.2840 - 1.2880 1.2960 - 1.3000 1.2870 - 1.2900 STOP 1.2975 1.2980 1.3290 1.2670 1.2690 1.2870 1.3055 STATUS In Progress In Progress Awaiting Fill Hit All Targets Hit All Targets Hit All Targets Stopped Out

USDJPY

10 Apr: There is no change in our outlook for 100.30 in the short-term and 101.70 in the medium term as BoJ governor Kuroda continues to issue verbal backing for the historical changes in monetary policies. But there are 2 likely catalysts for additional yen declines: i) the G-20 meeting of April 18-19 will be used as a platform, whereby the G7 nations (not G20) will support Japans monumental easing (as was the case in the November G20 meetings). Recall that the November G20, there were questions as to whether nations will protest Japans policy. Apart from some criticism by China and Brazil, the G7 as well as the IMF, gave Japans Abe full approval to escalate purchases, the result of which is inevitable yen weakness. We may hear some details about whether the purchase of foreign bonds will be encouraged, but at the end of the day, the medium term move will be that of yen weakness; ii) latest remarks from MoF saying that 100 USDJY is no problem, while 110 may pose difficulty for raising import costs. Traders should inevitably expect remarks from Kuroda, indicating authorities are closely monitoring movements in the currency. These remarks may well emerge ahead of the G20 meeting so that Japan gives the impression that it is not targeting the currency. Note that Kuroda has tremendous expertise in verbally swaying the yen during his tenure as chief of International Finance division at the MoF) The risk for interim yen bounces around the G7 will lead us to place lower placed buys in USDJPY, EURJPY and AUDJPY.
ENTRY 10 Apr LONG 08 Apr LONG 08 Apr LONG 04 Apr LONG 04 Apr LONG 10 Apr LONG 03 Apr SHORT 28 Mar LONG 28 Mar LONG 10 Apr LONG USDJPY USDJPY USDJPY USDJPY USDJPY USDJPY USDJPY USDJPY USDJPY USDJPY 98.80 - 99.20 97.90 - 98.20 98.10 - 98.50 95.80 - 96.10 95.60 - 95.90 99.30 - 99.70 93.90 - 94.30 93.80 - 94.20 93.20 - 93.50 99.10 - 99.50 LIMIT 100.80 - 101.20 100.00 - 100.30 99.20 - 99.60 97.50 - 97.80 97.00 - 97.30 100.30 - 100.70 93.00 - 93.40 95.80 - 96.20 94.20 - 94.50 100.10 - 100.50 STOP 97.80 96.80 97.60 95.00 94.90 98.80 94.70 92.80 92.65 98.60 STATUS In Progress In Progress Hit All Targets Hit All Targets Hit All Targets Stopped Out Stopped Out Stopped Out Stopped Out Canceled

GBPUSD

10 Apr: The corrective rally in GBPUSD ended up higher than our projections, but the long term downtrend remains intact, and is an opportunity to enter fresh sales at more attractive levels. Next weeks release of Mar CPI figures and the minutes of the April BoE meeting may trigger the usual volatility, but GBPs weakness remains prominent as seen in the EURGBP rally of the past 7 days. A weekly close above 1.5300 would merit watching as it is the confluence of the previous lows (June & January 2012) and the 55-DMA. Keep an eye on Fridays close. We will issue 2 fresh shorts, with different magnitudes.
ENTRY 10 Apr SHORT GBPUSD 1.5305 - 1.5335 LIMIT 1.5110 - 1.5140 STOP 1.5430 STATUS In Progress

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05 Mar SHORT 10 Apr SHORT 03 Apr SHORT 03 Apr SHORT GBPUSD GBPUSD GBPUSD GBPUSD 1.5220 - 1.5250 1.5310 - 1.5350 1.5090 - 1.5130 1.5180 - 1.5220 1.5090 - 1.5120 1.5220 - 1.5250 1.5000 - 1.5040 1.5080 - 1.5120

On CAD & JPY

1.5320 1.5410 1.5170 1.5280 Hit All Targets Stopped Out Stopped Out Stopped Out

AUDUSD

10 Apr: Aussie awaits tonights Mar jobs figures (Wednesday 21:30 ET, Thursday 02:30 London), expected at -7.5K from prev +71.5K, with the unemployment rate seen unchanged at 5.4%. Many are expecting that giant Feb figure to be revised and the Mar report to show a marked pullback. This implies that a figure of +10K to +20K may end up being fairly positive for the report and stand in the way of any easing plans from the RBA. Overnight comments from the RBA indicating it was far from considering intervening against excessive strength. The Aussies trade-weighted index hit fresh 28-year highs. Monthly technicals suggest a breakout above the 2011 trendline resistance, making way for 1.0620s as a viable next destination. The combination of positive momentum on the weeklies and monthlies calls for 2 new longs. Issuing 2 longs ahead of a jobs report is a dangerous trade, especially against the risk of a downward revision, but the technical make-up of the current price action calls for sustaining the trend.
ENTRY 10 Apr LONG 10 Apr LONG AUDUSD AUDUSD 1.0480 - 1.0520 1.0490 - 1.0530 LIMIT 1.0580 - 1.0620 1.0560 - 1.0600 STOP 1.0430 1.0460 STATUS In Progress In Progress

USDCAD

10 Apr: Our CAD-negative stance continues as it is supported by the fact that CAD is the worst performing currency in the G10 behind JPY and USD. Note how USDCAD persisted above the 1.0130-40 support despite the USD selloff against EUR and GBP. This is further supported by CADs underperformed against EUR and AUD. We noted last weeks disappointing Canadian jobs (-54.5K vs an expected + 6.5K and unemployment rise to 7.2% from 7.0%) were double negatives, which will likely force the BoC to issue a downgrade of its GDP outlook at the Apr 17 meeting. This should act as the next major opportunity to sell CAD. This weeks weakness in USD may have stood in the way of our expectations for rising USDCAD, but we expect the dynamics to accelerate in favour of the pair. Considering short-term negativity in USDCAD, we issue a lower placed long near 1.0120s.
ENTRY 10 Apr LONG 03 Apr LONG 05 Apr LONG 05 Apr LONG USDCAD USDCAD USDCAD USDCAD 1.0090 - 1.0130 1.0110 - 1.0130 1.0170 - 1.0200 1.0160 - 1.0195 LIMIT 1.0100 - 1.0240 1.0210 - 1.0220 1.0260 - 1.0290 1.0280 - 1.0320 STOP 1.0030 1.0070 1.0130 1.0100 STATUS In Progress Hit All Targets Stopped Out Stopped Out

GBPJPY

05 Apr: The BoJ factor combined with improved GBP technicals have broadened the improvement in GBPJPY technicals into weekly oscillators. Although medium term technicals in GBPUSD remains negative, this is not the case for GBP against JPY as the latter faces a historical transformation from its central bank. The inherent volatility in this pair allows us to enter at a lower level and target right below 150. 03 Apr: Due to the broadening bearishness in GBP and resilience in JPY, we observe interesting negativity with decent reward-risk ratio in GBPJPY as the pair remains fairly constructive, albeit with increasingly negative oscillators. eport, picking up a long, followed by selling of the bounce near 1.0400. Were sticking with
ENTRY 05 Apr LONG 05 Apr LONG 03 Apr SHORT 03 Apr SHORT GBPJPY GBPJPY GBPJPY GBPJPY 148.00 - 148.40 148.50 - 148.90 141.00 - 141.30 141.10 - 141.50 LIMIT 149.20 - 149.60 149.50 - 149.90 139.80 - 140.10 140.10 - 140.50 STOP 147.40 148.00 141.80 142.00 STATUS Awaiting Fill Hit All Targets Stopped Out Stopped Out

EURJPY

10 Apr: We opt for new longs at lower levels as the 130 level continues to prove a major inflection point (confluence of 100 & 200 month moving averages and congestion level in April-Dec 2009). Although most daily oscillator measures on EURJPY lean towards overbought, the weekly picture appears more neutral, which has been the pattern for yen crosses when extending time-frames. Support rises to 127.0 level (Feb high, April 2010 high, Nov 2009 low, Jul 2009). Thus, a retest of 1.3120s in EURUSD, may well lift EURJPY towards 131.20s if we do see 100 in USDJPY, which appears inevitable at this point.
ENTRY LIMIT STOP STATUS

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10 Apr LONG 09 Apr LONG 09 Apr LONG 08 Apr LONG 08 Apr LONG 10 Apr LONG EURJPY EURJPY EURJPY EURJPY EURJPY EURJPY 129.30 - 129.60 128.80 - 129.20 128.30 - 128.70 127.70 - 128.10 127.50 - 128.00 129.85 - 130.30 130.30 - 130.60 129/.60 - 130.00 129.30 - 129.70 128.90 - 129.20 129.30 - 129.80 129.85 - 131.20

On CAD & JPY

128.80 128.40 127.80 127.05 126.40 129.30 In Progress Hit All Targets Hit All Targets Hit All Targets Hit All Targets Stopped Out

AUDJPY

03 Apr: no trades

CADJPY

03 Apr: no trades

EURGBP

20 Mar: A sharp 2-week slide in EURGBP owing to the Cyprus hit on deposits combined with expressed concern over sterling weakness from the minutes of the MPC meeting is testing the 200-WMA. 0.8530s represent the support confluence between the 55-DMA and 200-WMA, but deteriorating stochastics on the weeklies, suggest we will see further pullbacks towards 0.8480/0.8520s before gradual stabilization ensues. This is shown in the monthly chart of EURGBP and GBPUSD, both of which argue for ongoing GBP weakness in the medium term. GBP dynamics aside, EUR remains vulnerable to the increasingly unpredictable news flow out of Cyprus and Russia. Another additional downward force on EURGBP is the likely message from S&P and Fitch that they will maintain their AAA rating following the UK Budget.

ENTRY 20 Mar LONG EURGBP 0.8480 - 0.8520

LIMIT 08580 - 0.8620

STOP 0.8430

STATUS Stopped Out

EURAUD

04 Apr: The sell-off reached 1.2222, which is just above our 1.22 target, therefore, we leave the trade in progress. The current rally emerges mainly on the heels of a broad EUR-gain in NY Thursday afternoon trading. But with stronger than expected Aussie retail sales and the negative structure in longer term technicals in EURUSD and EURAUD, we stick with a bearish directive against USD and AUD for the short-term. Also watch the upside confluence between the 55-WMA (1.2498) and the trendline resistance extending from Feb 15. We issue an additional short near 1.2430 to retarget 1.2220.
ENTRY 04 Apr SHORT 14 Mar SHORT EURAUD EURAUD 1.2430 - 1.2470 1.2500 - 1.2510 LIMIT 1.2230 - 1.2270 1.2200 - 1.2210 STOP 1.2570 1.2670 STATUS In Progress In Progress

GOLD

12 Apr: Todays golds damage has been spectacular but of no surprise, hitting the targets of all 3 shorts. This has been our bearish stance over the last 3 months. The days $70 decline was helped by news of that Cyprus was seeking to sell 400 mln in gold to fill the 13 bn portion of its total financial needs for the next 3 years. News of Merrill Lynch 4 million ounces at the COMEX open has also triggered the cascading of stops. Whether gold closes the week below or above 1525, our charts posted today (weekly and monthly) suggest the subsequent targets lie at 1433 (200 WMA), followed by a longer term goal of 1353 (55 WMA), which also denotes the 30% peak to trough decline. The risk becomes to what extent we will see a fresh corrective rebound before the declines ensue on the impulsive wave. As a result, we issue 3 gold shorts, composed of different magnitude and positioning. 11 Apr: Bearishness persists after failure of the rebound at 1590. 2 of 3 longs were stopped out right at the 1590 figure before the price found path lower. Selling the bounce remains after markets shrugged the discussion of potentially tapering off asset purchases in Wednesdays FOMC minutes. We also noted yesterday that gold/S&P500 ratio has fallen below 1.0 for the first time in 3 years, losing 40% from its 23-year peak of August 2011, which is the longest decline since the mid-1990s. Finally, on technicals, what appeared to be temporary spike on the fastest of monthly stochastics (upper panel) is now starting to flatten and joining the lower 2 panels in a negative convergence. As always, selecting the stops is half the battle in these trades.
ENTRY 12 Apr SHORT GOLD 1513 - 1520 LIMIT 1478 - 1485 STOP 1539 STATUS New

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12 Apr SHORT 12 Apr SHORT 11 Apr SHORT 11 Apr SHORT 05 Apr SHORT 05 Mar SHORT GOLD GOLD GOLD GOLD GOLD GOLD 1518 - 1525 1502 - 1512 1565 - 1575 1569 - 1579 1570 - 1579 1600 - 1610 1489 - 1496 1470 - 1480 1536 - 1546 1530 - 1540 1535 - 1543 1577 - 1685

On CAD & JPY

1552 1530 1592 1600 1597 1625 New Awaiting Fill Hit All Targets Hit All Targets Hit All Targets Hit All Targets

05 Apr SHORT 03 Apr SHORT 03 Apr SHORT 20 Mar SHORT

GOLD GOLD GOLD GOLD

1568 - 1575 1555 - 1566 1559 - 1570 1625 - 1632

1540 - 1547 1520 - 1530 1537 - 1547 1598 - 1605

1590 1588 1590 1646

Stopped Out Stopped Out Stopped Out Canceled

SILV ER

03 Apr: Bringing back silver as increased bearishness offers further downside, following 7 straight daily declines. The ugly picture on all 3 major timeframes is illustrated by the testing of the 200-WMA for the first time since 2009. We expect a retest of the 26.20-50 support, followed by brief consolidation until we see 25.10 (55-MMA). 03 Apr: ENTRY 03 Apr SHORT 03 Apr SHORT SILVER SILVER 27.00 - 27.20 27.05 - 27.30 LIMIT 25.30 - 25.50 26.10 - 26.40 STOP 28.10 27.70 STATUS In Progress Stopped Out

US CRUDE

03 Apr: Todays 240-point decline was attributed to the unexpected build-up in inventories, taking out the 55-DMA and calling into focus the 100-DMA at 93.20. Deteriorating dailies suggest further declines towards 93.20s, while the slower stochastics on the weeklies imply prolonged positivity. The plan is to exploit short-term bearishness, followed by medium term stabilization to retest 98 and 99.00 A DUAL trade will be required, with the stop for the long well below the 200-DMA.
ENTRY 03 Apr LONG 03 Apr SHORT US CRUDE US CRUDE 92.90 - 93.30 94.55 - 94.85 LIMIT 94.90 - 95.30 93.50 - 93.80 STOP 91.90 95.40 STATUS In Progress Hit All Targets

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