Nigeria On The Brink Of A Banana Republic, Balkanization?

By

Don Okereke
(Security Analyst, Consultant) Email: donnuait@yahoo.com Twitter: @ donokereke Telephone: +2347080008285

Caveat:
This treatise is not a swipe at any individual, section of the country or the present administration; it is a critical reappraisal of the Nigerian federation vis-a-vis recurrent upshots. To refresh our memories, Banana republic is a loosely used term which denotes a politically unstable, dependent country ruled by a small coterie of corrupt cabals with an accompanying impoverished working class. Latent and overt goings-on in our polity reinforces the well-known dictum that all is not well with the self-acclaimed giant of Africa. It is no news that people are sporadically hacked to death and the perpetrators waltz scot-free. There is a resounding rhythm of wanton killings, kidnappings, impunity, brinkmanship, irredentism, desperation, raw use of power in our landscape. A situation where five state governors were pelted for having the audacity to visit their embattled colleague is surely a bad omen. Envision the implications if the gung-ho security officers attached to these governors reciprocated the gesture of the masterminds of this rascality. Years ago, a United States think tank (not the US government), hinted that Nigeria may be balkanized by 2015. A fresh report for the United States War College titled Nigeria unity in the balance warns Nigerias leaders of the potential for another civil war erupting as a result of ongoing divisive trends in the country. According to the report, parochial interests created by religious, cultural, ethnic, economic, regional and political secessionist tendencies are endemic in Nigeria . The foregoing concurs with the title of John Campbell, the former United States ambassadors book titled Nigeria: Dancing on the brink. A study by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) ranked Nigeria as the worst country for a child to be born in. Nigeria consistently occupies an ignoble status in Transparency Internationals Corruption Index. Like an ostrich, we repeatedly shrug off these assertions or warnings; we claim they are the handicraft of our phantom enemies. Any honest and discerning Nigerian will not have qualms with these warnings, predictions. An appreciable advantage of a research or intellectual reasoning generally is that it employs parameters such as tests, observations before a conclusion is inferred. Rather than lampoon our imaginary enemies, have we cared to explore the yardstick they used in arriving at their conclusion? Interestingly, we flaunt it when a particular report says Nigeria is the fastest growing economy in Africa.

Granted many countries transited similar trajectories in their quest for nationhood but at a time they told themselves the gospel truth and took drastic measures to confront their problems head-on. Is it not high time we told ourselves the home truth? In England hereditary Lords and barons wielded so much power in those days such that no important decision is made without their consent. Not anymore. New York was once a notorious Mafiosi haven with the likes of Al Capon living larger-than-life until he was caged. After about 300 years of political marriage, the constituent nations (England, Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland) that people the United Kingdom, re-negotiated the terms of their existence with a principle of Devolution giving more powers and autonomy to the constituent nations. This arrangement gave birth to a Welsh Assembly, Welsh police, Scottish Parliament, Scottish Police and so on and so forth. This arrangement notwithstanding, the Scots are still clamoring to be completely independent. It is a different story in Nigeria. Our so-called leaders dont want us to discuss the problems with Nigeria. They want all of us to be praise-singers. One is dubbed an opposition, a pessimist or a doomsday prophet if one offers some constructive criticism. Issues that led to the first military coup and subsequently the 1967-1970 Civil war in Nigeria remain up in the air. Instead of using the rare opportunity presented by the forthcoming date for the centennial amalgamation of Southern and Northern protectorates of Nigeria for serious sober introspection, our politicians gad-about with arrangements for a grandiose carnival. One of the most popular clichs bandied about in Nigeria is One Nigeria. In reality, it appears this dream is far-fetched. Please lets eschew sentiments as we ponder, answer this question and brainstorm viable solutions. Can we in all honesty say we are truly One Nigeria? Can we say the Nigerian Nation is more cohesive after nearly one hundred years of a forceful amalgamation for the aggrandizement of our colonial masters? Are we One Nigeria where a while ago, about 10 Ibadan (Yoruba) traders that went to Bornu to transact business were hacked to death? Are we truly One Nigeria where 8 out every 10 Igbos I know that were born and bred or have resided in some Northern states for decades have relocated to the South courtesy of the Boko Haram onslaught? Are we One Nigeria where the first question a prospective tenant is asked when he/she goes to rent a house in some parts of Nigeria is, where are you from? His response determines whether or not the apartment/office space will be rented to him or not. Are we One Nigeria where a

prospective undergraduate from southern Nigeria who sits for UTME (Universities and Tertiary Matriculation Examination), scores say 250 is not admitted into a university but his counterpart from the north who scores 150 is admitted to study medicine? The same principle (a bastardized quota system that exalts mediocrity) applies to admission to our so-called Unity Secondary Schools and employment. Are we One Nigeria where a Nigerian (Yoruba from Oyo state) is not allowed to work in Abia state Civil Service and vice versa? Is the rest of Nigeria on the same page with a former governor, a serving senator who unblushingly opines that any girl that protrudes breasts and a pubic hair is matured and can be married off even if the girl is just 9 years old? With the persistent cries of marginalization, do we all have a sense of belonging as Nigerians? Is every Nigerian especially the minorities as Nigerian as other Nigerians? A typical American will proudly tell you he/she is an AMERICAN; it is only when you probe further that he will tell you the state he is from. Do we see ourselves as a Nigerian first before our various tribes? Are we truly One Nigeria where some Hausa/Fulani whose third generations were born and bred in Jos (Plateau state) are still seen as settlers, nonindigenes? Can a Hausa man, whose parents and himself were born and bred in Lagos state aspire to be the governor of Lagos state in the next coming elections in 2015? Are we One Nigeria where the Lagos state government deported, repatriated, forcefully relocated some south easterners to Onitsha recently? Why dump all of them at Onitsha by 2A.M, are all the deportees from Onitsha? Was there a prior understanding, arrangement, agreement with the families of these folks or Anambra state government before this action was taken? If the Lagos state government claims these folks are beggars or lack the wherewithal to return to where they originally came from, is dumping them at Onitsha the solution to the problem? Given that there are also Yoruba destitute in other parts of Nigeria, how will Lagosians or Yorubas feel if their folks residing in other parts of Nigeria are hounded home for no justifiable reason? If the action of the Lagos state government does not smack of xenophobia, how many Yoruba destitute from Ogun state, Oyo state et al have been deported to their original abodes? This clannish, jingoistic action and body language depicts gross insensitivity on the part of our leaders and invariably fans the embers of disunity. There are destitute, beggars everywhere- New York, London, France etc. If a UK citizen from say Birmingham (England) is found begging in Aberdeen (Scotland), the authorities will rather rehabilitate that citizen than repatriate him to Birmingham. Issues that led to the first military coup and subsequently the 1967-1970 Civil war in Nigeria remain up in the air. Instead of using the rare opportunity presented by the

forthcoming date for the centennial amalgamation of Southern and Northern protectorates of Nigeria for serious sober introspection and no-holds-barred political restructuring, our politicians gad-about with arrangements for a grandiose carnival. Let us mull over the succeeding concomitant topical events before making inferences. It will help if ethnic jingoism and political sentiments does not becloud our sound judgement. 1. A Human Right Watch report puts the death toll sequel to the Boko Haram onslaught in the last three years at about 3,000. As I write, news filtered in that about 20 civilians were hacked to death in Bornu supposedly by Boko Haram. It is the same story in Plateau state with the recurring Fulani herdsmen skirmishes with host communities. On December 10, 2012, Attorney General of the FederationMr. Mohammed Adoke opined that 7,195 cases of extra-judicial killings were recorded in the last four years in Nigeria, with 2,000 of the victims being detainees. Do the math and deduce the number of people that are sent to an early grave in a country apparently not enmeshed in a civil war.

2. Alarming proliferation of weapons, firearms: A while ago, the Director General of the National Task Force on Illegal importation of Light Weapons and Small Arms, one Osita Osakwe made a stunning revelation that, The Governors use their private jets to build up arms ahead of the coming 2015 elections. In a sane clime, this is a serious allegation and the man would have been invited to substantiate his assertion. With enormous porous borders (a conservative guesstimate from Nigerias Immigration Service puts the number of illegal entry points to Nigeria to about 1,500), and active connivance of inept, corrupt custom officials, does one really need a private jet to ferry arms into Nigeria?

3. Premium Times recently quoted the Bayelsa State governor- Mr. Seriake Dickson as saying, Niger Delta militants steal crude Oil to buy arms, recruit members. Mr. Dickson said this in Yenegoa when he received the Flag Officer Commanding the Central Naval Command. We are made to believe the so-called amnesty programme entailed disarmament? Are those blokes going the reverse direction?

4. Lately Asari Dokubo addressed a Press conference and opined that Nigeria will break up if President Jonathan does not get a second term. He arrogantly dared Nigerias security agencies to arrest him if they could. Kingsley kuku, a Special Adviser to President Jonathan concurs with him. Asari extenuated his remark on the premise that some Northern blokes made similar statements and got away with it. Such predilections are knock-on effects of setting bad precedents. Can we safely infer that Nigeria has swiveled to the point where somebody brazenly hacks another to death and justifies, extenuates his dastardly act because some other bloke did the same thing and got away with it? In a sane ambiance, the law takes it course when an infringement or a crime is committed; the Police do not need clearance from the President, governor to perform its statutory vocation.

5. Alarming proliferation of Vigilantes/ethnic militias/Cult groups. Zamfara state is said to be tinkering with the idea of arming vigilantes to stem the tide of terrorism and insurgency. The same folks that kicked against State Police. What an irony! Recently Ombatse Cult reportedly hacked about 90 Police and SSS officials to death. We are not aware suspects have been arrested let alone prosecuted. Rather than work round the clock to fish out and prosecute masterminds of this dastardly act, the DG of the State Security Service (SSS) Mr. Ita Ekpenyong told us they have forgiven Ombatse Cult for killing their officers on national assignment. What an ingenious way of boosting the morale of other serving personnels in its fold! Sometime in April, Niger Delta militants basking in the euphoria of a Presidential Amnesty ambushed and killed about 12 Police officers. In the South East, Bakassi Boys and MASSOB hold sway while the OPC run things in the South West.

6. Our politicians and so-called statesmen are busy fanning the embers of ethnic jingoism and disunity with their rabble-rousing statements. Is it really axiomatic that wisdom and decorum comes with old age? I cringe each time I hear statements ascribed to elderly and apparently educated, knowledgeable men like Edwin Clarke, Prof. Ango Abdullahi or the Northern Elders Forum. If these men make such statements, what do they expect from youths who have a lot of potent adrenaline in them? Can these old men tot rifles if war erupts in Nigeria?

7. Wanton killings have become the order of the day. There is no gainsaying the fact that life expectancy is increasingly shrinking and getting cheaper in Nigeria. Recent statistics put the life expectancy in Nigeria at 51.9 years. People give testimonies and sing praises when they sleep and wake up or travel from Point A to B safely. One is not insinuating it is wrong to render testimonies. Born in Adamawa state, a place I still have a strong affinity for, I recall we used to sleep under dogonyaro trees from dusk to dawn. I am not sure any sane person can try that now. Jos (Plateau state) arguably passed for the most peaceful state in Nigeria then but has metamorphosed into a killing field. Kidnapping has become a daily phenomenon; school children, octogenarians are not spared.

8. It has become a clich in Nigeria that the recent Nigeria Governors Forum election was a show of shame. A video shows an election took place; the election was won and lost. Or was the NGF election video doctored? Like they say, in Nigeria, the more you look, the less you see. Rather than apologize to Nigerians, these geezers unblushing gad-about spewing bunkum. Can we trust the judgments of our so-called Excellencies? If 36 fully grown men, some of them in their sixties or seventies cannot comport themselves, what do they expect from the generality of Nigerians? Is this a harbinger of things to come in 2015?

As if this was not enough, another show of shame was replicated recently by some members of the Rivers State House of Assembly. The Constitution is explicit on what it takes to impeach a Speaker, Governor etc. The last time I checked, a twothird majority is the benchmark. I was wondering if what transpired in the Rivers State House of Assembly was some sort of Nollywood Home Movie. The video of this infamy depicts a grown man using a mace to club his colleague to almost a state of stupor in the full glare and supervision of a Police officer. Are these blokes responsible and honourable as they address themselves and prefer to be addressed? How will these men explain their actions to their kids? The Rivers State Houses of Assembly members make the Ibadan branch of NURTW (National Union of Road Transport Workers) look like saints. An investigation has been ordered; nothing will come out of it after all it is a family affair.

9. Corruption, profligacy and kleptocracy have assumed an unprecedented dimension. It is no longer in millions; it is a fad now to rub it in, in multiples of billions. Our present day politicians and ogas-at-the-top make Umaru Dikko look like mother Theresa. A former boss of Police Pension Fund reportedly embezzled nearly N30billion and was handed a slap-on-the-wrist sentence. Where the office of UKs Prime Minister does not have a single Presidential Jet attached to it (not that they cannot afford it), Aso Rock is said to have about ten Presidential Jets in its kitty. Where President Obama earns about $400,000 annually, an average Senator in Nigeria in addition to salaries, and other sundry allowances, goes home with about N48million per quarter in the guise of a constituency allowance (about $1.7million dollars per annum). Let us not even go near the largesse that the Nigerian President is entitled to. Each governor in Nigeria is entitled to N6billion naira as a security vote which they dont owe anybody any explanation as to how the money is expended. It is now the in-thing for our governors to globetrot with private jets appropriated with state funds. A certain state governor had to hire a chopper to fly from Benin to Anambra state, a journey of less than an hour by road. Why wont Nigerian politicians kill to occupy a political position?

10. Skyrocketing unemployment rate: Those in the know like former president Obasanjo tells us this phenomenon is a time-bomb. We do not need a clairvoyant to drive home the point. A lot of the ills in our society-wanton kidnapping, armed robbery and even terrorism/insurgency can be attributed to this factor.

11. Growing trend in individuals wittingly and unwittingly usurping the responsibilities of the state. An average Nigerian or community provides his/its own security (private guards, vigilantes, and militias), their own electricity (generators), and potable water (boreholes), construct roads and medical centres. With the proliferation of primary, secondary schools and universities, some individuals in Nigeria can comfortably refer to themselves as sovereign governments akin to the arrangement between Italy and the Vatican.

12. Plausible scenarios come 2015: From the foregoing analysis, my inference is that Nigeria is pregnant with unpredictable possibilities prior to and aftermath of

the 2015 Presidential elections. Given that President Jonathan does not seem to enjoy the massive goodwill and empathy of Nigerians that garnered him against all odds, the coveted seat he presently occupies, envisage where he bulldozes his way and wins the 2015 presidential election by brazen foul play and the opposition goes the way of the splinter faction of the NGF led by Jonah Jang. Also envision where a northerner wrestles power through providence and/or some shrewd political engineering from the incumbent, a Niger-Deltan and the multi-billion dollars ati Naira Crude Oil Protection Contract awarded to the ex-militants is not renewed, they will likely recant the amnesty deal, largesse and go back to the creeks. As the much touted amnesty program winds up by 2015, these blokes will no longer enjoy the national cake as they are currently doing. Out of desperation, boredom buoyed by a plethora of sophisticated arms, ammunitions in the kitty of these celebrity nouveau-riche ex-militants, there is no gainsaying they have the wherewithal to bring Nigeria to its knees if they so wish. Also dont forget in a jiffy that the MASSOB, OPC et al are watching unfolding events with keen interest.

Conclusion:
The foregoing are tell-tale signs of a country on the brink of balkanization. Our politicians and leaders at all levels must put Nigeria first before their parochial personal aggrandizements and tribal sentiments. The Arab Spring, particularly the current situation in Egypt should be a wake-up call, an eye-opener to them. Our leaders must not get carried away by the pliant nature of Nigerians; the elastic limit has been over-stretched. They must not bask on the euphoria of Nigerias 14 years of uninterrupted democracy. If concerted and urgent steps are not taken to stem the aforementioned acerbic divisive tides sweeping across Nigeria, there is no gainsaying the fact that a prediction of Nigerias balkanization may after all be a fait accompli. All hope is not lost; Nigeria can avert this ugly consistent slant towards a failed state with a serious political restructuring skewed towards regionalism or true federalism with less political power in the centre. There is likelihood of abuse when so much political power is concentrated in one particular office or in the hands of an individual. A situation where a governor of a state and the chief

security officer of that state, does not have control over the police officers in his domain calls for serious concern. There is no doubt Nigeria has got potentials. There is no doubt our sheer size puts us at an advantage on the bargaining table especially among the committee of nations but we really need to appreciate the home truth and take drastic measures to fix the mess in our sphere. It is my considered opinion that a political system skewed towards regionalism, true federalism or confederalism (a weak centre) will be ideal for this country. We can take a cue from UKs Principle/System of DEVOLUTION which ascribes some level of autonomy to the constituent units giving rise to a Welsh Assembly, Welsh Police, Scottish Parliament, Scottish Police, Scottish Health Service etc. Perhaps if our national assembly members and other politicians generally are made to work on part time basis with meagre largesse, it will weed out those who see political positions as an avenue to amass wealth and go about it with a do-ordie mentality. What is your take, from the deepest recesses of your mind, do you think Nigeria is truly One Nigeria yet or are we still evolving? Is Nigeria truly one country or a mishmash of countries, individuals at dissimilar strata, pyramid of consciousness and civilization forced to exist as one? Are we ever going to be truly One Nigeria? Are we living a lie? What do you think is the solution to this quagmire? Will Nigeria survive the forthcoming 2015 election hysteria and miasma? The alarm bells are ringing!!! Time will tell. God bless Nigeria and Nigerians.

Don Okereke
(Security Analyst, Consultant) Email: donnuait@yahoo.com Twitter: @ donokereke Telephone: +2347080008285