Currencies Daily Report

Monday| July 29, 2013

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Reena Rohit Chief Manager Non-Agri Commodities and Currencies Reena.rohit@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6134 Anish Vyas Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Currencies Daily Report

Monday| July 29, 2013

Highlights
US Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment rose to 85.1-mark in July. German Import Prices declined by 0.8 percent in the month of June. Japans Retail Sales gained by 1.6 percent in the last month. Asian markets are trading on a mixed note today ahead of the monetary policy meeting in this week for major global economies. However, sharp downside in markets was cushioned as a result of favorable economic data from US on Friday and increase in Japans retail sales data in todays trade. US Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment increased by 1.2 points to 85.1mark in July as against a rise of 83.9-level in June. Revised UoM Inflation Expectations gained by 3.1 percent in current month from 3.3 percent a month ago.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last Prev. day

as on July 26, 2013 WoW MoM YoY

NIFTY SENSEX DJIA S&P FTSE KOSPI BOVESPA NIKKEI Nymex Crude (Aug13) - $/bbl Comex Gold (Aug13) - $/oz Comex Silver(Sept13) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne CRB Index (Industrial) G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% - Yield

5886.2 19748.2 15558.83 1691.7 16421.5 1959.2 58497.8 14506.3 104.70 1329.00 20.15

-0.4 -0.3 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -1.5 0.2 0.2 -0.7 0.7 0.7

-2.4 -2.0 0.1 0.0 1.8 4.7 23.4 -0.1 -3.1 2.8 3.6

5.3 6.4 4.4 5.5 6.9 5.6 23.9 3.2 8.4 8.6 3.6

15.2 8.0 20.7 24.4 20.8 2.0 3.4 66.3 17.1 -17.4 -26.6

US Dollar Index
The US Dollar Index (DX) declined around 1.2 percent in the last week on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments which led to fall in demand for the currency. Further, favorable economic data from the US exerted downside pressure on the currency. However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned on account of positive economic from country led to expectations of pullback in stimulus measures from Federal Reserve by end of this year. The DX touched a weekly low of 81.64 and closed at 81.764 on Friday.

6855.00 102.09

-2.2 0.0

-0.9 7.8

-12.6 5.2

-9.4 1.8

Dollar/INR
US Dollar (% change) On a weekly basis, The Indian Rupee appreciated around 0.5 percent. The currency appreciated on the back of measures taken by Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to curb CAD by restrictions on gold imports along with lowering the amount banks can borrow or lend under its daily liquidity window. Further, approval of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in 13 sectors by Indian government supported an upside in the currency. However, sharp upside in currency was capped on account of dollar demand from importers. Additionally, weak domestic markets prevented gains in the Rupee. The currency touched a weekly high of 58.693 and closed at 59.033 on Friday. For the month of July 2013, FII outflows totaled at Rs.6393.60 crores th ($1066.90 million) as on 26 July 2013. Year to date basis, net capital th inflows stood at Rs.65,8784.70 crores ($12,433.90 million) till 26 July 2013. Outlook From the intra-day perspective, we expect Rupee to appreciate on the back of weakness in the DX. However, sharp upside in the currency will be capped or reversal can be seen on account of dollar demand from importers along with mixed global markets. Further, expectations of unchanged interest rates from RBI in its monetary policy meeting tomorrow will add downside pressure on the currency.
Last Prev. day WoW

Source: Reuters

as on July 26, 2013 MoM YoY

Dollar Index US $ / INR (Spot) US $ / INR July13 Futures (NSE) US $ / INR July13 Futures (MCX-SX)

81.76 59.03 59.06 59.06

-0.4 -0.1 -0.10 -0.13

-1.1 0.5 -0.80 -0.79

-1.9 2.8 -3.21 -3.41

2.9 -6.4 6.30 6.30

Technical Chart USD/INR

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
US Dollar/INR Aug13 (NSE/MCX-SX)

valid for July 29, 2013 Trend Down Support 59.0/58.70 Resistance 59.60/59.80

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Currencies Daily Report

Monday| July 29, 2013

Euro/INR
The Euro appreciated around 1 percent in the last week on the back of weakness in the DX. Further, favorable economic data from the region supported an upside in the currency. Additionally, upbeat global market sentiments acted as a positive factor. The Euro touched a weekly high of 1.3296 and closed at 1.3278 against the dollar on Friday. German Import Prices declined by 0.8 percent in June as against a previous fall of 0.4 percent a month ago. Outlook In todays session, we expect Euro to trade on a positive note on the back of weakness in the DX. However, sharp upside will be capped on the back of mixed global markets. Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR Aug13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways 78.60/78.30 79.0/79.30 valid for July 29, 2013 Support Resistance

Euro (% change)
Last Prev. day

as on July 26, 2013 WoW MoM YoY

Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR July 13 Futures (NSE) Euro / INR July13 Futures (MCX-SX)

1.3278 78.48 78.4 78.4

0.0 -0.5 0.47 0.45

1.0 -0.7 0.28 0.27

2.1 -0.3 -1.32 -1.51

7.8 -12.9 15.06 15.04

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Euro

Source: Telequote

GBP/INR
On a weekly basis, The Sterling Pound appreciated around 0.7 percent taking cues from weakness in the DX. Additionally, rise in risk appetite in global market sentiments acted as a positive factor for the currency. Further, rise in the countrys Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data supported an upside in the currency. The Sterling Pound touched a weekly high of 1.5433 and closed at 1.5379 against dollar on Friday. Outlook We expect the Sterling Pound to strengthen today as a result of weakness in the DX. Further, expectations of favorable realized sales and net lending to individuals data from the country will support an upside in the currency. However, mixed world markets will cap sharp gains in the Sterling Pound. Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR Aug 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways valid for July 29, 2013 Support 90.70/90.50 Resistance 91.20/91.50

GBP (% change)
Last Prev. day

as on July 26, 2013

WoW

MoM

YoY

$ / GBP (Spot) GBP / INR (Spot) GBP / INR July13 Futures (NSE) GBP / INR July 13 Futures (MCX-SX)

1.5379 90.847 90.98

-0.07 0.17 0.69

0.7 0.26 0.04

0.4 -2.33 -2.88

-2.3 4.32 4.74

90.98

0.69

0.05

-3.06

4.76

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Sterling Pound

Source: Telequote

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Currencies Daily Report

Monday| July 29, 2013

JPY/INR
The Japanese Yen appreciated around 2.4 percent in the last week on account of political changes in the country. Further, favorable economic data from the country supported an upside in the currency. However, sharp upside in currency was capped as a result of rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments which led to fall in demand for the currency. The Yen touched a weekly high of 97.94 and closed at 98.25 against dollar on Friday. Japans Retail Sales rose by 1.6 percent in June as against a rise of 0.8 percent a month ago. Outlook In todays session, we expect Japanese Yen to appreciate on the back of rise in risk aversion in the global markets which will lead to rise in demand for the low yielding currency. Further, favorable retail sales data will also act as a positive factor for the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR Aug 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways valid for July 29, 2013 Support 60.0/59.80 Resistance 60.40/60.60

JPY (% change)
Last 98.25 0.601 59.89 59.90 Prev day -1.0 1.13 0.82 0.98

as on July 26, 2013 WoW -2.4 1.87 0.81 0.86 MoM 0.5 -3.36 -4.04 -4.13 YoY 25.3 -15.25 -15.69 -15.68

JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR July13 Futures (NSE) JPY 100 / INR July13 Futures (MCX-SX)

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart JPY

Source: Telequote

Economic Indicators to be released on July 29, 2013

Indicator Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact

Retail Sales y/y Nationwide HPI m/m Net Lending to Individuals m/m CBI Realized Sales Pending Home Sales m/m

Japan UK UK UK US

5:20am 29 -31st 2:00pm 3:30pm 7:30pm

th

1.6% -

1.7% 1.4B 11 -1.1%

0.8% 0.3% 1.0B 1 6.7%

Medium Medium Medium Medium High

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