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Sector Update

Anand Shah 'Exhibiting Gloomy Pictures'

Tel: 022 - 4040 3800 Ext: 334
E-mail: anand.shah@angeltrade.com
Shweta Boob
Tel: 022 - 4040 3800 Ext: 311
E-mail: shweta.boob@angeltrade.com
Over the last one month, Multiplex stocks have witnessed sharp rally in the range of
35-50% despite looming concerns including lower occupancies and possible delays in
handover of properties. Moreover, owing to the upcoming IPL season and the tiff between
Multiplex operators and Producers, the Movie pipeline over 1QFY2010 is expected to
remain weak. We believe that the slowdown in consumer spends and weak movie pipeline
are likely to lead to stagnation in Footfalls and Average Ticket Prices (ATPs). Overall, we
see no near-term catalysts for the Sector and given the recent rup up in the stock
prices, we recommend a Neutral rating on the Multiplex Sector.
z Poor Content, not Slowdown - the key culprit: Amidst the ongoing economic
slowdown, it has been observed that the frequency of theatre visits by moviegoers,
especially to multiplexes, has been affected. Occupancies in most multiplexes have
declined to as low as 25-30% levels in FY2009. We, however, believe that slowdown is only
a certain factor impacting footfalls, with content being the key culprit keeping audiences
away from the multiplexes. For instance, while Ghajini, released in the midst of slowdown,
managed to gross Rs100cr+ domestically, a weak movie pipeline particularly in CY2008
(highest number of average and flop movies over the last three years) was mainly
responsible for lower occupancies during FY2009.
z Real Estate slowdown, Funding issues impact Multiplex expansion plans: In a
scenario where Multiplex operators are facing funds crunch on one hand and slowdown in
the Real Estate Sector on the other, we believe expansion plans of the Multiplexes in terms
of property roll outs are likely to suffer, in turn impacting their growth prospects. As a result,
while the Multiplex companies had chalked out optimistic expansion plans at the beginning
of FY2009, most have fallen short of meeting their target rollouts. We believe this scenario
will only worsen in FY2010. Hence, we have pruned our FY2010 estimates to factor in lower
capacity addition.
z Near-term negatives to remain an overhang: We believe the Multiplex industry is
facing several headwinds in the near term, which are likely to create an overhang on the
Multiplex stocks on the bourses - 1) Delayed Movie releases owing to Exhibitor-Producer
tiff, 2) Weak movie pipeline in 1QFY2010 owing to upcoming IPL season and 3) Stagnation
in Footfalls and ATPs due to slowdown in consumer spends. Moreover, our interaction with
managements indicated that occupancies during 4QFY2009 worsened (almost at 20%
levels) on both qoq and yoy basis. Hence, we expect Multiplexes to report poor 4QFY2009E
results, which would prove to be a dampener for the Multiplex stocks in the near term.
We have revised our estimates for the Multiplex companies under our coverage to
discount execution delays in capacity addition and lower occupancies in the near
term. While we remain Neutral on Fame, Inox and Cinemax, we downgrade PVR
from Buy (Target Achieved) to Neutral.

Exhibit 1: Comparative Valuation

Company CMP Mkt Cap EPS (Rs) P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoCE (%)
(Rs) (Rs cr) FY08 FY09E FY10E FY08 FY09E FY10E FY08 FY09E FY10E FY08 FY09E FY10E
PVR 86 198 9.0 4.1 7.9 9.5 20.9 10.9 6.5 6.7 4.0 9.1 3.2 6.8
Cinemax 45 127 4.9 4.3 5.0 9.2 10.5 9.0 8.3 6.2 5.5 7.6 6.9 9.0
Inox 36 222 4.3 1.9 2.4 8.4 19.1 15.0 6.4 8.9 7.4 9.6 5.3 6.9
Fame 13 45 4.0 (2.6) 1.4 3.2 - 9.6 7.6 - 8.7 3.2 (6.8) 3.4
Source: Company, Angel Research

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Multiple whammies hit Multiplex Sector

We believe that the Multiplex Sector is set for troubled times ahead owing to multiple headwinds.
In the near term while the Exhibitor-Producer tiff and upcoming IPL season have emerged as the
biggest challenges for the industry, weak consumer spend and slowdown in Real Estate are
likely to result in the Sector witnessing deceleration in growth.

Exhibit 2: Multiple Whammies

TV Prefered Real Estate

Alternative slowdown

Economic Slowdown
Producers'
demand

Exhibitors

Source: Company, Angel Research

Poor Content, not Slowdown - The key culprit

Audience has become Amidst the ongoing economic slowdown, the audience has become selective owing to which
selective owing to which frequency of theatre visits by moviegoers, especially to multiplexes, has been hit. Consequently,
frequency of theatre visits by top grossers in CY2008 collectively earned Rs435cr (Rs692cr), almost 40% less than that
moviegoers has been hit earned in CY2007.

Exhibit 3: Box Office Top Grossers

800
692
700
617
600

500
Rs (cr)

435
400

300

200

100

0
CY2006 CY2007 CY2008

Source: Box Office India, Angel Research

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Inability of films to connect
with one and all has been the
root cause of the poor show
at the box office while impact
of an economic slowdown is
just over-rated
Nonetheless, as is rightly said, Entertainment is recession proof with movies traditionally being
one of the best affordable sources of entertainment for all income brackets and age groups.
Hence, we believe slowdown is only one factor impacting footfalls. Poor content is the key
culprit that has kept audiences away. For instance, Ghajini, released amidst slowdown,
managed to gross Rs100cr+ domestically. Clearly, a weak movie pipeline in CY2008 (highest
number of Average and Flop movies over the last three years) was the key factor leading to lower
occupancies during FY2009. Moreover, most of the recent releases have been small-budget
niche movies, which were able to attract youth, but not families. Further, certain films went
down well with the critics (like Slumdog Millionaire), but they failed to connect with the general
audience. Thus, inability of films to connect with one and all has been the root cause of the poor
show at the box office while impact of an economic slowdown is just over-rated.

Exhibit 4: Movie Performance Meter - Top-30 Movies

30
2
4 4
25 7
9
20 12

15 11
7
5
10

5 10 9 10

-
CY2006 CY2007 CY2008

Blockbuster Hit Average Flop

Source: Box Office India, Angel Research

Television emerging as a preferred alternative

TV is available much cheaper With a wide choice of 500+ channels spanning across genres like General Entertainment,
for an entire family, when Regional, Movies, Music, News and Sports at an ARPU/Month which is equivalent to an entry
compared to an entry fee of a fee for a single patron at a Multiplex, Television has clearly emerged a preferred alternative for
single patron at a multiplex entertainment for the entire family.

Moreover, Direct to Home (DTH) viewing has only lent that additional impetus to the Television
industry. Over the last three years, DTH has witnessed a sharp increase in its penetration levels
from a mere 1% to 12.5% encompassing an estimated 11mn subscribers in FY2009. DTH is
estimated to post a robust 23.2% CAGR over FY2009-14E. Interestingly, the current squabble
between the Exhibitors and Producers has led to the producers considering DTH as an
alternative source to reach out to the audiences. Eros International, for instance, inked a
revenue-sharing deal with Dish TV to showcase Aa Dekhe Zara. This is the first movie, which is
available on demand for DTH service users in less than two weeks after its cinema hall release.

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In the long run, we believe TV poses a significant threat for the growth of multiplexes on account
of the following:
„ TV offers viewers wider choice to switch channels and with better accessibility.
„ Movies are now available for a TV premiere within months of their launch owing to their
decreasing shelf life on the big screen.
„ Lack of quality content places TV as a better alternative as against the multiplexes as a
movie on TV is available much cheaper for an entire family, when compared to an entry fee of
a single patron at a multiplex.

Real Estate slowdown, Funding issues impact Multiplex Expansion plans

While multiplex companies
had chalked out optimistic
expansion plans at the start of
FY2009, most have fallen
short to meet their target
rollouts
In a scenario where Multiplex operators are facing funds crunch on one hand and slowdown in
the Real Estate on the other, we believe expansion plans of the Multiplexes in terms of property
roll outs are likely to suffer in turn impacting their growth prospects. Roll out of new properties is
a key growth driver for any multiplex as it brings in significant economies of scale. However,
substantial slowdown in delivery of new malls by developers, who are facing acute cash crunch,
has left the multiplex operators in a quandary as this directly delays their expansion plans.

While multiplex companies had chalked out optimistic expansion plans at the start of FY2009,
most have fallen short to meet their target rollouts. Comparing the FY2009 estimates of screen
additions by the companies in our universe vis-à-vis the actual rollouts, indicates that most
companies added 10-15% less capacity than planned. Going ahead, we believe this scenario
will only worsen in FY2010. Hence, we have pruned our FY2010 estimates accordingly.
Nonetheless, on the positive side, we believe this scenario will result in re-negotiation of rentals.
Newer formats such as revenue-sharing with the developers are also likely to emerge as a
preferred option for the Multiplex operators.

Exhibit 5: Revised Expansion Plans of Multiplex Operators

140 FY2009
125 180 FY2010E
163
120 111 160
108 142
140 130
100 94
118 116
84 120 110
80 75 73 74 98
100 93

60 80

60
40
40
20 20

0 0
PVR Cinemax Inox Fame PVR Cinemax Inox Fame

4QFY2008 4QFY2009 4QFY2008 4QFY2009

Source: Company, Angel Research

Near-term negatives to remain an overhang

We believe the Multiplex industry is set to face several headwinds in the near term, which are
likely to create an overhang on Multiplex stocks - 1) Delayed Movie releases owing to
Exhibitor-Producer tiff, 2) Weak movie pipeline in 1QFY2010 due to upcoming IPL season and
3) Stagnation in Footfalls and ATPs due to the slowdown in consumer spends. Moreover, our

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interaction with managements indicates that occupancies during 4QFY2009 worsened (almost
at 20% levels) on both qoq and yoy terms. Hence, we expect Multiplexes to report poor
4QFY2009E results, which would prove to be a dampener for the Multiplex stocks in the near
term.

Delayed Movie releases owing to Exhibitor-Producer tiff

Producers/Distributors are
pressing for a flat 50% revenue
sharing for all the movies
exhibited across weeks as is
the case abroad
While the fight between Exhibitors and Producers over revenue-sharing terms is nothing new to
the industry, the ongoing tiff has turned ugly with a united front of Producers/Distributors
executing what we would term as a 'complete black out' (ie. no movies in the multiplexes since
April 4, 2009) as the revenue sharing issue has not been resolved to their satisfaction.
Revenue sharing amongst the Producers/Distributors & Multiplexes has always been on a
case-to-case basis depending on the star cast, film budget and bargaining power of the
production house. Conventionally, Multiplexes had been sharing 48% of their ticket sales of a
film (net of entertainment tax) with film Producers/Distributors in the first week of release, which
decreases to 35-38% from week two onwards. However, Producers/Distributors are pressing for
a flat 50% revenue sharing for all the movies exhibited across weeks as is the case abroad.

The moot question here is why has revenue sharing suddenly become so important, after nine
years of corporatisation and growth of multiplexes?

Domestic box-office collections account for almost 70% of Filmed revenues with the balance
30% coming from DVD sales, Music and Satellite Rights, Overseas Distribution rights, etc.
Thus, as a major chunk of the revenues come from Domestic box office collection and with other
sources of revenue relatively strained, largely owing to slowdown, the Producers/Distributors
front is now hell-bent on garnering higher share.

Producers Take - United we stand, Share flat 50% of Revenues

¾ Producers have not differentiated the size of the properties of the exhibitors. When a
distributor is releasing a film, he does not have a choice to release the film in select
multiplexes, say in prime properties, and has to bear the expenses of printing those
additional prints. Thus, revenue sharing should not also be related to the performance of the
film.
¾ The Multiplex owners start reducing the number of shows for a film that doesn't do well on
the box office. Thus, they do not suffer as much as the producers.
¾ The Multiplex owners have been delaying their revenue sharing payments by 2-3 months
straining producers' cash position.

Exhibitors Take - Producers' demand 'unfair, Performance-linked sharing ideal

¾ It is only fair to share the revenues on the basis of the potential of movies individually as the
revenue depends on the kind of content sold.
¾ The Multiplex owners have to bear the operational costs irrespective of a movie being a flop
or a hit. Thus, a higher share for the Distributors would directly impact their profitability.
¾ There is no parity in revenue sharing abroad and in India as the Spend per Head is lower
compared to abroad.
¾ There could be a consideration to increase the percentage of the share given to the
producers if the need arises, but it will not be 50%.

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Although, both parties have
their own apt reasoning, we
believe the bigger issue
remains quality of content
Owing to huge popularity of
IPL across India
producers have once again
shunned away from big
releases during the period
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Our Take - Content is king
While fights over revenue-sharing between Producers/Distributors and Exhibitors generally gets
resolved just before a scheduled release, this time round it's been different. For instance, Eros
International's Aa Dekhen Zara had to skip its multiplex release due to the ongoing tiff and was
exhibited only in single screens. Although, both parties have their own apt reasoning, we believe
the bigger issue remains quality of content. A quick glance at the movies released in CY2009
this far shows that performance of movies has only deteriorated.
Exhibit 6: Movie Pipeline - CY2009 (YTD)
Film Verdict
Firaaq Flop
Straight Flop
Gulaal Flop
Barah Aana Flop
13B Flop
Dhoondte Reh Jaoge Flop
Slumdog Millionaire Semi Hit
Delhi 6 Flop
Source: Box Office India, Angel Research
In favour of the Multiplexes, we believe with the advent of computerised ticketing, the Film
Industry has received a major impetus in actual Revenue delivery. In FY2006, 35-40% of Box
Office Revenue was contributed by the Multiplexes, whereas in FY2008, this figure rose to
55-60% and is likely to go up further in the ensuing years. Thus, higher number of multiplexes
has only increased the income of the producers due to better addressability. Hence, we
believe poor content remains the moot issue and that both parties should concentrate
on getting more people into theaters (footfalls), which would help drive Revenues.
Impact on Multiplexes
We believe the Multiplex Industry is likely to see a drop of 30-50% in Revenues during 1QFY2010
due to the ongoing strike called by the producers and the consequent delays in movie releases.
Meanwhile, with the IPL theatre rights negotiation yet to make any headway, multiplexes are
banking on Hollywood films. To combat these adverse conditions, most Multiplexes are
planning to operate fewer screens per property, reduce advertising and marketing expenses and
put fresh recruitments on hold.
Weak movie pipeline in 1QFY2010 owing to upcoming IPL season
1QFY2010 is likely to be a forgettable quarter for Multiplexes for yet another reason - the
most second season of IPL is set to commence from April 18, 2009. Owing to huge popularity of IPL
across India and particularly since the matches are telecast at prime time, most producers
have once again shunned away from big releases during the period. Moreover, the release of
movies slated between April 10 - May 29 like Pal Pal Dil Ke Paas, Dasavathaaram, Aashayen,
99, Detective Nani, Sikandar and Kambakht Ishq also hang in doldrums owing to the ongoing
Producers-Exhibitors tiff. Hence, we expect 1QFY2010 to be yet another poor quarter in terms
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of the movie pipeline. The only saving grace for multiplexes, in terms of content, will be the
release of Hollywood movies during the period including blockbusters like Crank 2: High
Voltage, X-Men Origins: Wolverine, Angels and Demons, Star Trek and Terminator Salvation.

IPL Telecast Rights - An opportunity lost

According to the recent With BCCI's recent decision to shift the 59-match Twenty20 IPL tournament to South Africa
media reports, IPL owing to the security concerns amidst the General Elections, screening of IPL matches has
management has decided not clearly emerged as a strong alternative content option for Multiplexes given that no fresh
to sell rights to Multiplex content is scheduled during the period due to the ongoing tussle between the Producers and
players because it has asked Multiplexes.
for a high minimum
guarantee from prospective Multiplexes had approached Sony, the official broadcaster for IPL in India, last year for the
bidders screening rights, but no agreement was signed. This time Sony has decided to have a separate
body for theatrical rights and tenders have been invited for the same. The theatre rights holder
would exhibit the IPL matches on a Revenue-sharing model with the Multiplexes that air them.
According to media reports, UTV, PVR and Group M have emerged as the frontrunners for the
theatrical telecast rights. However, there are some hitches in the execution including:

„ The price quoted by the IPL authorities is extremely high and not feasible.

„ Multiplexes cannot possibly comply with the Cinematography Act, 1952 which states that

a. All forms of media due for telecast on the big screen have to be censored and should
obtain a certificate from the local Censor Board (something no live event can obtain).
b. All media should be in the 35mm format.

These terms are negotiable and multiplexes and IPL are working together to resolve the issue.
However, according to the recent media reports, with just one day left for the Indian Premier
League (IPL) to begin, its management has decided not to sell rights to Multiplex players
because it has asked for a high minimum guarantee from prospective bidders, having found no
takers for such a business model. IPL is looking at a minimum guarantee of Rs35-45cr with
rights to distribution only for a year which is not feasible for multiplex players. We believe it is a
good business opportunity lost.

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Stagnation in Footfalls, ATPs due to slowdown in Consumer spend

We believe a weak 1QFY2010
(owing to the ongoing tiff and
second IPL season) coupled
with weakening consumer
spends are unlikely
improve occupancy levels
FY2009 witnessed a substantial 25-30% drop in occupancy levels for most Multiplex
operators. While the first season of IPL hit them hard during 1QFY2009, terror attacks and
security issues during 3QFY2009 kept occupancies low. Weakening consumer spends due to
economic slowdown, exam season and a weak movie pipeline only aggravated their woes and
to ensured another poor quarter in 4QFY2009 with occupancies reaching as low as 20%. As a
result, the Multiplex companies in our universe, except Cinemax, registered a significant drop in
their occupancy levels. Going ahead, we believe a weak 1QFY2010 (owing to the ongoing tiff
and second IPL season) coupled with weakening consumer spends are unlikely to improve
occupancy levels. However, we expect 2HFY2010 to be better, though quality of content will
remain the key driver for footfalls.

Exhibit 7: Occupancies to stabalise at FY2009 levels

45

40
Occupancy (%)

35

30

25

20
FY2007 FY2008 FY2009E FY2010E

PVR Cinemax Inox Fame

Source: Company, Angel Research

Moreover, in their bid to combat slowdown and attract higher footfalls, most Multiplexes are also
resorting to measures like reducing average ticket prices (ATPs) by 12-20% depending on the
property. Many multiplexes are also banking on promotional offers and schemes, like selective
discounts on ticket prices, free popcorn, etc. for those booking tickets online.

Hence, given the near-term headwinds, slowdown in consumer spends and high dependence on
content, we expect footfalls and ATPs to stagnate at current levels thereby constraining the
growth prospects of the Multiplex Sector.

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Exhibit 8: Operational Parameters - Relative Comparison

PVR Cinemas Inox Leisure

Operational Parameters Operational Parameters
FY07 FY08 FY09E FY10E FY07 FY08 FY09E FY10E
Footfalls (Mn) 14.7 18.0 17.9 20.7 Footfalls (Mn) 9.3 12.5 13.4 16.5
Occupancy (%) 43.0 39.9 35.0 34.8 Occupancy (%) 42.0 40.0 33.6 34.4
Average Ticket Price, ATP (Rs) 119 127 138 136 Average Ticket Price, ATP (Rs) 125 127 130 130
F&B Spend Per Head, SPH (Rs) 28 32 38 38 F&B Spend Per Head, SPH (Rs) 27 29 31 31
Average SPH (Rs) 147 159 176 174 Average SPH (Rs) 152 156 161 161

Exhibition Capacity Exhibition Capacity

FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10E FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10E
Propts Under Operation 20 22 26 30 Propts Under Operation 14 21 27 32
Screens Under Operation 79 84 108 130 Screens Under Operation 51 73 94 118
Seats Under Operation 20307 21,853 27,827 33,539 Seats Under Operation 15,251 21,810 28,287 34,758
Source: Company, Angel Research Source: Company, Angel Research

Cinemax Fame India

Operational Parameters Operational Parameters
FY07 FY08 FY09E FY10E FY07 FY08 FY09E FY10E
Footfalls (Mn) 5.2 6.2 8.7 10.6 Footfalls (Mn) 4.0 5.8 7.4 10.1
Occupancy (%) 31.8 29.3 29.3 28.7 Occupancy (%) 30.0 29.0 27.0 28.5
Average Ticket Price, ATP (Rs) 125 131 129 126 Average Ticket Price, ATP (Rs) 110 111 115 118
F&B Spend Per Head, SPH (Rs) 26 29 30 31 F&B Spend Per Head, SPH (Rs) 24 28 34 35
Average SPH (Rs) 151 160 159 158 Average SPH (Rs) 134 139 149 153

Exhibition Capacity Exhibition Capacity

FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10E FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10E
Propts Under Operation 10 18 25 32 Propts Under Operation 11 15 22 28
Screens Under Operation 33 52 73 93 Screens Under Operation 39 54 74 98
Seats Under Operation 9,228 14,066 19,855 24,955 Seats Under Operation 12,093 16,711 21,608 27,608
Source: Company, Angel Research Source: Company, Angel Research

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Companies

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NEUTRAL New Ventures’ Blues

We believe PVR's superior Management bandwidth, diversified business model and strong
Price Rs86
set of properties (in terms of location) make it the most preferred play in the Exhibition
Target Price - space. However, initial losses in new ventures (Gaming and Production), lower
Investment Period - Consolidated Margins and slow capacity addition are likely to be a drag on PVR's stock
price in the near term. At Rs86, PVR is trading at 10.9x FY2010E EPS of Rs7.9. Given the
Stock Info recent run up in the stock and near-term concerns, we recommend Neutral on PVR.

Sector Media „ Diversified Business Model to help combat slowdown: PVR's diversified Business
Model and presence across the Movie value chain (Exhibition-Production-Distribution) places
Market Cap (Rs cr) 198
it in a better position than its peers to combat the prevailing economic slowdown. We
Beta 0.6 expect its new ventures like Food Courts and Bowling Alleys to capitalise on large flow of
52 Week High / Low 210/50 footfalls in multiplexes, thereby aiding Topline growth. PVR's 51:49 joint venture, Blu-O,
with the Major Cineplex Group recently commenced its first project - a 24-lane Bowling
Avg Daily Volume 24291
Alley Center at the Ambience Mall, Gurgaon.
Face Value (Rs) 10
„ PVR Pictures - The wild card: During 1QFY2009, PVR diluted 40% equity stake in
PVR Pictures for Rs120cr valuing the production and distribution businesses at Rs300cr.
BSE Sensex 10,947
After meeting with consecutive successes in Taare Zameen Par and Jaane Tu Ya Jaane
Nifty 3,370 Na, its consequent two productions, viz. Contract and Mere Khwabon Mein Jo Aaye tanked
at the Box office. Nonetheless, PVR Pictures is still sitting on Rs100cr un-deployed cash
BSE Code 532689 and plans to produce/distribute 7-8 movies in FY2010E. We believe better cost rationalisation
NSE Code PVR and execution in terms of movie selection/acquisition will remain the key for PVR to make
this venture profitable.
Reuters Code PVRL.BO
„ Losses at Subsidiaries level to be a drag on Consolidated Margins: While entry in
Bloomberg Code PVRL@IN
new businesses like Gaming (Blu-O) and Production (PVR Pictures) is likely to aid PVR's
overall Topline growth, initial investments and a weak macro-economic environment are
Shareholding Pattern (%)
likely to delay breakeven of these ventures. Moreover, initial launch expenses in Multiplexes
Promoters 41.2 at Goregaon (Sunrise Ent) and Phoenix Mills (CR Retail) which do not reflect in the company's
Standalone results, will be a further drag on its consolidated Margins in FY2009E.
MF / Banks / Indian FIs 16.3

FII / NRIs / OCBs 23.0 Key Financials (Consolidated)

Indian Public / Others 19.5 Y/E March (Rs cr) FY2007 FY2008 FY2009E FY2010E
Net Sales 177.7 265.9 345.9 397.2
Abs. 3m 1yr 3yr % chg 69.4 49.6 30.1 14.8
Sensex (%) 17.4 (32.6) (2.6) Net Profit 10.2 21.6 9.5 18.1

PVR (%) (18.6) (55.1) (72.6) % chg 92.7 112.2 (56.2) 91.6
OPM (%) 15.4 18.4 10.7 15.3
Anand Shah EPS (Rs) 3.9 9.0 4.1 7.9

Tel: 022 - 4040 3800 Ext: 334 P/E (x) 21.9 9.5 20.9 10.9

E-mail: anand.shah@angeltrade.com P/BV (x) 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.7

RoE (%) 5.1 10.4 3.4 6.2
Shweta Boob RoCE (%) 4.8 9.1 3.2 6.8
Tel: 022 - 4040 3800 Ext: 311 EV/Sales (x) 1.3 1.1 0.7 0.6
E-mail: shweta.boob@angeltrade.com EV/EBITDA (x) 9.9 6.5 6.7 4.0
Source: Company, Angel Research

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NEUTRAL ‘Max’ed Out For Now

Price Rs45 Cinemax has de-risked its business model by diversifying into different Revenue streams
Target Price -
given the bleak scenario in the Multiplex sector. For 9MFY2009, the company posted a
strong 44.5% yoy growth in Revenues driven by a robust 33% growth in its core Exhibition
Investment Period -
business. However, we believe that the company's entry into the low-Margin high-risk
Distribution business and its rising Interest costs on account of the high Debt on its books,
Stock Info
will continue to be a drag on the stock price. At Rs45, the stock is trading at 9x FY2010E
Sector Media EPS of Rs5. We maintain a Neutral view on the stock.
Market Cap (Rs cr) 127
„ Diversifying Revenue streams: In a scenario where the entire Multiplex Sector is
Beta 0.7 facing numerous challenges in terms of Revenue growth, Cinemax has sought to de-risk its
52 Week High / Low 132/24 business model from being in the core Exhibition business to venturing into new areas like
Avg Daily Volume 9,126 Food Courts, Production and Distribution along with increasing its presence in the existing
Gaming Segment. During 3QFY2009 Cinemax opened two new Gaming and Food Court
Face Value (Rs) 10
centers spread over 36,000sq ft. We believe entry into new segments will not only aid the
company's Top-line growth, but will also help reduce its dependence on the highly dithering
BSE Sensex 10,947
Exhibition Revenues.
Nifty 3,370
„ Best placed in terms of Profitability… Cinemax is the only listed Multiplex player,
BSE Code 532807 which is expected to post growth in Bottom-line over FY2008-10E. We expect the company
to post a CAGR of 0.6% in Bottomline over FY2008-10E on the back of robust Revenue
NSE Code CINEMAX
growth of 31.9% and better Operating Margins.
Reuters Code CIMA.BO
„ …But rising below EBITDA level costs, delays in new businesses breaking even
Bloomberg Code CNMX@IN
pose major risks: Cinemax has funded its expansion plans through debt consequent to
which its Interest costs spiked by a significant 74% yoy in FY2009E. Depreciation also
Shareholding Pattern (%)
increased by a whopping 167% yoy in FY2009E partly on account of the high Amortisation
Promoters 68.2 charges provided for the Distribution rights. Further, we believe that any delays in the
MF / Banks / Indian FIs 12.9 company's new businesses breaking even could severely dent its Profitability.

FII / NRIs / OCBs 4.3 Key Financials (Consolidated)

Indian Public / Others 14.6 Y/E March (Rs cr) FY2007 FY2008 FY2009E FY2010E
Net Sales 93.9 101.6 146.1 176.9
Abs. 3m 1yr 3yr# % chg - 8.3 43.8 21.1
Sensex (%) 17.4 (32.6) (21.9) Net Profit 11.5 13.8 12.0 14.0

Cinemax (%) 20.2 (56.1) (70.3) % chg - 20.1 (13.0) 16.4

Note : # Since listing on Feb 14, 2007 OPM (%) 27.5 25.4 24.7 24.9
Anand Shah EPS (Rs) 4.1 4.9 4.3 5.0

Tel: 022 - 4040 3800 Ext: 334 P/E (x) 11.0 9.2 10.5 9.0

E-mail: anand.shah@angeltrade.com P/BV (x) 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8

RoE (%) 8.4 9.3 7.7 8.5
Shweta Boob RoCE (%) 10.0 7.6 6.9 9.0
Tel: 022 - 4040 3800 Ext: 311 EV/Sales (x) 1.7 2.0 1.4 1.2
E-mail: shweta.boob@angeltrade.com EV/EBITDA (x) 6.7 8.3 6.2 5.5
Source: Company, Angel Research

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NEUTRAL An Expensive Leisure

Price Rs36 We maintain that the premium valuations that Inox commands vis-a-vis its peers on
account of its premium positioning and better execution capabilities has eroded as it
Target Price -
reported subdued Earnings for 9MFY2009. Moreover, we expect delays in the roll out of
Investment Period - properties to hit expansion plans owing to slowdown in the Real Estate Sector. Hence, we
expect the company's Revenue and Earnings growth to continue to be under pressure
Stock Info following the fall in Occupancy rates and stagnation in ATPs and Average SPH. At Rs36,
Sector Media the stock is trading at 15x FY2010E EPS of Rs2.4. We maintain a Neutral view on the
Market Cap (Rs cr) 222
stock.

Beta 0.9 „ Revenue growth to remain under pressure: In the past, Inox has been able to draw
highest Average ATPs and SPH given its premium positioning. However, the ongoing
52 Week High / Low 125/19
economic slowdown coupled with expansion in Tier-II cities have lead to stagnation in the
Avg Daily Volume 60809 company's ATPs and SPH. Moreover, as majority of Inox's expansion is in non E-tax
Face Value (Rs) 10 exempted areas, we estimate its future Revenue growth to come under pressure.

„ Falling Occupancies - A key concern: Despite a modest number of screen roll outs,
BSE Sensex 10,947
Inox has not been able to register traction in Revenue largely on account of lower
Nifty 3,370 Occupancies across its properties. Its Occupancy declined from 42% in FY2007 to about
32% in FY2009. Going ahead, with 1QFY2010 expected to be weak along with the company's
BSE Code 532706 expansion into Tier-II cities, we estimate the company's Occupancy levels to further
NSE Code INOXLEISUR deteriorate given its premium positioning.
Reuters Code INOL.BO „ Lower Margins to impact Profitability: Inox has been historically commanding the
Bloomberg Code INOL@IN highest Margins amongst its peers owing to higher Average SPH commanded at its
properties. However, due to lower Occupancy levels and Rising Rentals (all future property
Shareholding Pattern (%)
roll outs would be on lease-model), Margins have taken a severe hit in FY2008 to 21.8% and
have further dropped to 16.5% in 9MFY2009. Hence, we expect Earnings to remain
Promoters 64.0 subdued and register a CAGR de-growth 25.1% over FY2008-10E on the back of muted
MF / Banks / Indian FIs 17.8 Revenue growth and Margin pressure.
FII / NRIs / OCBs 0.3 Key Financials
Indian Public / Others 17.9 Y/E March (Rs cr) FY2007 FY2008 FY2009E FY2010E
Net Sales 141.4 184.7 199.4 244.0
Abs. 3m 1yr 3yr % chg 38.5 30.6 8.0 22.4
Sensex (%) 17.4 (32.6) (2.6) Net Profit 24.8 26.4 11.6 14.8

Inox (%) 9.3 (66.9) (84.3) % chg 41.3 6.4 (56.1) 27.8
OPM (%) 25.7 21.8 15.7 16.9
Anand Shah FDEPS (Rs) 4.0 4.3 1.9 2.4

Tel: 022 - 4040 3800 Ext: 334 P/E (x) 8.9 8.4 19.1 15.0

E-mail: anand.shah@angeltrade.com P/BV (x) 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8

RoE (%) 10.6 10.1 4.4 5.5
Shweta Boob RoCE (%) 9.3 9.6 5.3 6.9
Tel: 022 - 4040 3800 Ext: 311 EV/Sales (x) 1.9 1.3 1.2 1.1
E-mail: shweta.boob@angeltrade.com EV/EBITDA (x) 8.1 6.4 8.9 7.4
Source: Company, Angel Research

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NEUTRAL Not in Good Frame

Price Rs13 Fame India (Fame) enjoys a dominant presence in Mumbai. While FY2009E was a dismal
Target Price - year for Fame in terms of financial performance (owing to high forex losses), we expect the
company to turn in a better performance in FY2010E on the back of stronger Revenue
Investment Period -
traction owing to steady expansion. However, low Occupancy levels, muted Earnings (owing
to high Interest costs and Depreciation charges) and concerns over outstanding FCCBs
Stock Info
loom large over the stock.At Rs13, Fame is trading at 9.6x FY2010E EPS of Rs1.4. We
Sector Media
maintain a Neutral view on the stock.
Market Cap (Rs cr) 45
„ Steady Expansion to drive growth: Fame currently operates 74 screens across 11
Beta 0.8
cities and has a seating capacity of 21,608. During 2HFY2009, the company added five new
52 Week High / Low 68/9
properties with 13 screens and 3,862 seats under operation. We expect Fame to add
Avg Daily Volume 31774 another 24 screens in FY2010E with majority of the expansion kicking in during 1HFY2010E.
Face Value (Rs) 10 We expect rising seating capacity to emerge as the biggest Revenue driver for the company
as ATPs and Occupancies are likely to remain under pressure.
BSE Sensex 10,947
„ Earnings to remain muted: While we expect Margins to improve from FY2009E levels
Nifty 3,370
(depressed due to high forex losses) owing to higher Operating leverage and lower
contribution from Distribution (low-Margin business), we expect Earnings to remain muted.
BSE Code 532631
We estimate higher Depreciation charges (on account of expansion) and Interest costs
NSE Code FAME (Fame recently raised Rs40-45cr debt to fund its expansion) to impact Profitability.
Reuters Code SHRC.BO
„ Outstanding FCCBs - A key concern: Fame currently has outstanding FCCBs to the
Bloomberg Code FAME@IN
tune of US $13mn, which is due in FY2011E. Given the current market conditions and stock
price, we maintain that the outstanding FCCBs are unlikely to get converted and hence, are
Shareholding Pattern (%) not factoring in any dilution in Equity. Management is considering alternatives like buy-back
Promoters 43.7 of FCCBs at a discounted price pending approvals. However, funding of the same once
again remains a grey area.
MF / Banks / Indian FIs 12.3

FII / NRIs / OCBs 27.1 Key Financials (Consolidated)

Indian Public / Others 16.9 Y/E March (Rs cr) FY2007 FY2008 FY2009E FY2010E
Net Sales 88.2 92.6 116.5 158.6
Abs. 3m 1yr 3yr % chg 52.0 5.0 25.9 36.1
Sensex (%) 17.4 (32.6) (2.6) Net Profit 9.7 14.1 (8.9) 4.7

Fame (%) (15.5) (79.2) (81.4) % chg - 44.6 (163.2) -

OPM (%) 14.8 13.7 (2.8) 13.1
Anand Shah EPS (Rs) 2.8 4.0 (2.6) 1.4

Tel: 022 - 4040 3800 Ext: 334 P/E (x) 4.6 3.2 - 9.6

E-mail: anand.shah@angeltrade.com P/BV (x) 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5

RoE (%) 17.1 14.5 (10.1) 5.1
Shweta Boob RoCE (%) 2.4 3.2 (6.8) 3.4
Tel: 022 - 4040 3800 Ext: 311 EV/Sales (x) 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.1
E-mail: shweta.boob@angeltrade.com EV/EBITDA (x) 6.7 7.6 - 8.7
Source: Company, Angel Research

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(
P. Phani Sekhar Fund Manager - (PMS) phani.sekhar@angeltrade.com
Siddharth Bhamre Head - Investment Advisory siddarth.bhamre@angeltrade.com
Devang Mehta AVP - Investment Advisory devang.mehta@angeltrade.com
Research Team  022 - 3952 4568)
(
Hitesh Agrawal Head - Research hitesh.agrawal@angeltrade.com
Sarabjit Kour Nangra VP-Research, Pharmaceutical sarabjit@angeltrade.com
Vaishali Jajoo Automobile vaishali.jajoo@angeltrade.com
Harit Shah IT, Telecom harit.shah@angeltrade.com
Deepak Pareek Oil & Gas deepak.pareek@angeltrade.com
Pawan Burde Metals & Mining, Cement pawan.burde@angeltrade.com
Vaibhav Agrawal Banking vaibhav.agrawal@angeltrade.com
Girish Solanki Power, Mid-cap girish.solanki@angeltrade.com
Shailesh Kanani Infrastructure, Real Estate shailesh.kanani@angeltrade.com
Anand Shah FMCG , Media anand.shah@angeltrade.com
Puneet Bambha Capital Goods, Engineering puneet.bambha@angeltrade.com
Sushant Dalmia Pharmaceutical sushant.dalmia@angeltrade.com
Raghav Sehgal Retail raghav.sehgal@angeltrade.com
Amit Singh Shipbuilding / Logistics amit.singh@angeltrade.com
Amit Vora Research Associate (Oil & Gas) amit.vora@angeltrade.com
Laxmikant Waghmare Research Associate (Metals & Mining, Cement) laxmikant.w@angeltrade.com
Aniruddha Mate Research Associate (Infra, Real Estate) aniruddha.mate@angeltrade.com
Shweta Boob Research Associate (FMCG , Media) shweta.boob@angeltrade.com
V Srinivasan Research Associate (Power, Mid-cap) v.srinivasan@angeltrade.com
Jaya Agrawal Jr. Derivative Analyst Jaya.agarwal@angeltrade.com
Amit Bagaria PMS amit.bagaria@angeltrade.com
Sandeep Wagle Chief Technical Analyst sandeep@angeltrade.com
Ajit Joshi AVP Technical Advisory Services ajit.joshi@angeltrade.com
Brijesh Ail Manager - Technical Advisory Services brijesh@angeltrade.com
Vaishnavi Jagtap Sr. Technical Analyst vaishnavi.jagtap@angeltrade.com
Milan Sanghvi Sr. Technical Analyst milan.sanghvi@angeltrade.com
Mileen Vasudeo Technical Analyst vasudeo.kamalakant@angeltrade.com
Krunal Dayma Derivative Analyst - (TAS) krunal.dayma@angeltrade.com
Sanket Padhye AVP Mutual Fund sanket.padhye@angeltrade.com
Pramod Rathod Research Associate (MF) pramod.rathod@angeltrade.com
Poonam Jangid Research Associate (MF) poonam.Jangid@angeltrade.com
Commodities Research Team
Amar Singh Research Head (Commodities) amar.singh@angeltrade.com
Samson P Sr. Technical Analyst samsonp@angeltrade.com
Anuj Gupta Sr. Technical Analyst anuj.gupta@angeltrade.com
Girish Patki Sr. Technical Analyst girish.patki@angeltrade.com
Abhishek Chauhan Technical Analyst abhishek .chauhan@angeltrade.com
Parag Joshi Technical Analyst parag.joshi@angeltrade.com
Commodities Research Team (Fundamentals)
Badruddin Sr. Research Analyst (Agri) badruddin@angeltrade.com
Mandar Pote Research Analyst (Energy Complex) mandar.pote@angeltrade.com
Reena Walia Research Analyst ( Base Metals) reena.walia@angeltrade.com
Vedika Narvekar Research Analyst ( Agri) vedika.narvekar@angeltrade.com
Nalini Rao Research Analyst (Agri) nalini.rao@angeltrade.com
Bharathi Shetty Research Editor bharathi.shetty@angeltrade.com
Bharat Patil Production bharat.patil@angeltrade.com

Research & Investment Advisory: Acme Plaza, 3rd Floor ‘A’ wing, M.V. Road, Opp Sangam Cinema, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 059
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compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. Prospective investors and others are cautioned that any forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without
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Recipients of this material should rely on their own investigations and take their own professional advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as it deems necessary to arrive
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We do not undertake to advise you as to any change of our views expressed in this document. While we would endeavor to update the information herein on a reasonable basis, Angel Broking, its subsidiaries
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Ratings (Returns) : Buy (Upside > 15%) Accumulate (Upside upto 15%) Neutral (5 to -5%)
Reduce (Downside upto 15%) Sell (Downside > 15%)

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