Weekly

Summary Report
2012 Trading Week 30: 16-22 July 2012

Weekly Summary Report

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

Week 30: 16-22 July 2012

Ex-ante system demand peaked at a level of 8,810 MW during the week (1400H, 18 July 2012), while the maximum market offer significantly decreased to 8,881 MW (1300H, 16 July 2012) in comparison with the previous week. Tight and insufficient supply conditions were observed through most of the weekdays as a result of the unavailability of Il ijan 1 and 2 (Block A and B) given that the Malampaya onshore natural gas plant was still on maintenance during the week. Ilijan 1 only started to become available at 2400H of 20 July 2012. With this, under-generation and load shedding conditions were observed in the market results during most of the week. Supply margins started to widen on 20 July 2012 because of the low demand requirement until the weekend, which may be attributed to the continuous downpour of rain in Luzon. With the Malampaya complex still undergoing maintenance during the week, affected generating units (Sta. Rita and San Loren zo) operated using alternate fuel. Towards the weekend, however, natural gas supply from Malampaya resumed as indicated by the availability of Ilijan 1 at 240 0H of 20 July 2012. On the other hand, the Sta. Rita and San Lorenzo gas plants implemented their fuel change-over from fuel to fuel gas in the morning of 21 July 2012. With the tight and insufficient supply levels during the weekdays, oil -based plants increased in frequency in setting the price in the market; prices as high as PhP 54,458/MWh (1500H, 16 July 2012) was cleared in the market. During the weekend, however, with system ex-ante demand level going as low as 4,594 MW, prices went as low as PhP 0/MWh for trading intervals 0300H, 0500H to 0700H, and 2400H on 22 July 2012. Over-all, the weekly average nodal price (system-wide) was observed to be lower at PhP 8,246/MWh in comparison with the previous week. With the tight supply and inadequate reserve levels being experienced in the grid, must -run units (MRUs) in Luzon, particularly Malaya 1 and 2, were dispatched from 16-20 of July 2012. In the Visayas, a few MRUs were still called upon all of which were still from the island of Panay for system voltage requirement. The dispatch of oil-based plants increased to 5% (based on ex-ante schedules) in comparison to last week's 3.1% as their capacities were frequently cleared in the market, coupled with their increased utilization as MRUs. Price separation was observed in the Luzon grid because of a congestion at the Tayabas 500/230 kV Sub -station from 17-18 July 2012 since one of the three 600 MVA transformers was on maintenance while the N-1 contingency requirement was imposed on the said sub-station. There were a few trading intervals affected by the price separation in the Visayas because of congestions at the New Naga-Quiot 138 kV line and at the Negros-Panay submarine cable.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

DATE MIN Jul-16 Jul-17 Jul-18 Jul-19 Jul-20 Jul-21 Jul-22 7,467 7,546 7,587 7,570 7,411 7,767 7,906 7,411 OFFER, MW MAX 8,881 8,805 8,800 8,680 8,485 8,775 8,531 8,881 AVE 8,166 8,127 8,085 7,996 7,930 8,320 8,226 8,121 MIN 5,834 6,195 6,219 6,122 6,002 5,514 4,594 4,594 RTD DEMAND, MW MAX 8,785 8,810 8,810 8,559 8,293 7,299 6,982 8,810 AVE 7,507 7,665
MW 11000 10000 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 OFFER EFFECTIVE SUPPLY SYSTEM RTD

7,595 7,411 7,099 6,374 5,680 7,047

FORECASTED VS. ACTUAL DEMAND

FORECAST ERRORS, % DATE Jul-16 Jul-17 Jul-18 Jul-19 Jul-20 Jul-21 Jul-22 MINIMUM 0.02 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.08 0.13 0.21 0.00 MAXIMUM 2.95 1.99 1.65 2.05 3.05 4.22 3.41 4.22 MAPE 0.82 0.45 0.66 0.66 1.09 1.36 1.31 0.90
MW

10000 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0

SYSTEM RTD SYSTEM ACTUAL

EX-ANTE GENERATION MIX

GENERATION MIX, % DATE Jul-16 Jul-17 Jul-18 Jul-19 Jul-20 Jul-21 Jul-22 COAL 51.5 52.3 50.2 50.3 50.9 46.9 43.0 49.6 GEO 14.5 14.3 14.0 14.9 15.4 17.2 17.9 15.3 HYDRO 7.6 8.0 8.7 8.2 7.6 7.7 8.6 8.1 NAT GAS 19.7 17.7 20.1 20.4 21.4 28.0 30.3 22.1 DIESEL / OIL 6.7 7.7 7.0 6.2 4.7 0.3 0.2 5.0 WIND AND BIO GEO 15.3% HYDRO 8.1% COAL 49.6% NAT GAS 22.1%

DIESEL/OIL 5.0%

Weekly Summary Report

CAPACITY (OFFER) MIX
AVERAGE CAPACITY MIX, % DATE Jul-16 Jul-17 Jul-18 Jul-19 Jul-20 Jul-21 Jul-22 COAL 49.8 50.0 50.3 50.4 50.7 48.7 48.6 49.8 GEO 13.3 13.4 13.5 13.8 13.9 13.3 13.3 13.5 HYDRO 8.5 8.6 8.7 8.2 8.1 8.0 8.3 8.3 NAT GAS 19.1 19.1 19.3 19.5 19.6 23.9 23.7 20.6 DIESEL / OIL 9.3 8.9 8.2 8.1 7.6 6.2 6.1 7.8 WIND AND BIO -

Week 30: 16-22 July 2012

11000
10000

DIESEL/OIL HYDRO COAL

NAT GAS GEO

9000
8000 7000

MW

6000 5000

4000
3000 2000 1000 0

HVDC FLOW
HVDC DIRECTION, % OF TIME DATE NO FLOW Jul-16 Jul-17 Jul-18 Jul-19 Jul-20 Jul-21 Jul-22 RTD V L 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 91.7 87.5 97.0 L V 8.3 12.5 3.0 NO FLOW 4.2 4.2 1.2 ACTUAL V L 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 95.8 87.5 97.6 L V -

EX-ANTE HVDC FLOW

400 350 300 250 200 MW 150 100

LUZON-TO-VISAYAS
VISAYAS-TO-LUZON

8.3 1.2

50 0 -50 -100

SYSTEM MARKET PRICES

DAILY SUMMARY OF SYSTEM PRICES (LWAP), PhP/MWh DATE MIN Jul-16 Jul-17 Jul-18 Jul-19 Jul-20 Jul-21 Jul-22 2,677 3,065 2,856 2,330 2,300 1,702 0 0 RTD MAX 54,458 51,237 23,398 14,581 9,636 2,849 2,601 54,458 AVE 14,523 14,706 9,886 7,541 4,377 2,324 1,452 8,246 MIN 2,676 3,266 2,588 2,328 2,317 1,590 0 0 RTX MAX 54,458 39,080 23,588 14,612 9,307 2,846 2,569 54,458 AVE 14,395 14,304 9,415 7,781 4,350 2,321 1,361 8,117

SYSTEM MARKET PRICES (LWAP)

60000 RTD LWAP RTX LWAP

50000

40000 LWAP, PhP / MWh

30000

20000

10000

EX-ANTE LWAP DISTRIBUTION

100 90 80

EX-ANTE MARKET PRICES PER GRID (LWAP )

RTD RTX
60000 LUZON VISAYAS

50000

PERCENT OF TIME

70

40000
LWAP, PhP / MWh

60
50

30000

40
30 20 10 0
0 and Below 0 - 2000 2000 - 4000 4000 - 6000 6000 - 8000 8000 10000 Above 10000

20000

10000

Weekly Summary Report

SUMMARY OF PRICES PER GRID, LUZON
DATE MIN Jul-16 Jul-17 Jul-18 Jul-19 Jul-20 Jul-21 Jul-22 2,684 3,075 2,860 2,333 2,311 1,703 0 0 RTD, PhP/MWh MAX 54,694 51,237 23,753 14,715 9,285 2,863 2,533 54,694 AVE 14,318 14,817 10,029 7,575 4,348 2,304 1,435 8,285 MIN 2,687 3,282 2,602 2,335 2,330 1,592 0 0 RTX, PhP/MWh MAX 54,694 39,080 23,753 14,715 9,285 2,863 2,495 54,694 AVE

Week 30: 16-22 July 2012

LUZON MARKET PRICES (LWAP)

60000 50000 RTD LWAP RTX LWAP

14,417
LWAP, PhP / MWh

14,333 9,438 7,779 4,332 2,311 1,342 8,159

40000

30000
20000 10000 0

SUMMARY OF PRICES PER GRID, VISAYAS

DATE MIN Jul-16 Jul-17 Jul-18 Jul-19 Jul-20 Jul-21 Jul-22 2,635 3,006 1,194 2,308 2,239 1,694 0 0 RTD, PhP/MWh MAX 53,166 51,237 21,435 13,839 11,504 3,390 2,905 53,166 AVE 15,650 14,101 9,102 7,357 4,533 2,424 1,530 8,040 MIN 2,612 3,176 2,485 2,282 2,246 1,581 0 0 RTX, PhP/MWh MAX 53,166 39,080 22,679 14,047 9,421 3,079 2,884 53,166 AVE 14,271

VISAYAS MARKET PRICES (LWAP)

RTD LWAP
60000 50000 40000 30000 20000

RTX LWAP

9,289 7,795 4,442 2,371 1,446 7,892

LWAP, PhP / MWh

14,145

10000
0

INTERVALS WITH MUST-RUN UNIT (MRU) EVENTS

DATE Jul-16 Jul-17 Jul-18 Jul-19 Jul-20 Jul-21 Jul-22 LUZON 18 22 24 23 24 111 VISAYAS 2 3 5

HOURLY MRU EVENTS

LUZON
3 HOURLY FREQUENCY OF MRU EVENTS VISAYAS

MRU EVENTS, LUZON

DATE Jul-16 Jul-17 Jul-18 Jul-19 Jul-20 Jul-21 Jul-22 TOTAL 18 31 43 42 45 179 THERMAL RESERVE VOLTAGE COMM/REG OTHERS 18 31 43 42 45 179 -

MRU EVENTS, VISAYAS

DATE Jul-16 Jul-17 Jul-18 Jul-19 Jul-20 Jul-21 Jul-22 TOTAL 2 3 5 THERMAL RESERVE VOLTAGE COMM/REG OTHERS 2 3 5 -

Note:

MRU events refer to occurrences in which generating units are designated as must-run units for certain trading intervals

THERMAL RESERVE VOLTAGE COMM/REG OTHERS

Thermal Limits of Transmission Line and/or Power Equipment Inadequate Reserve Level System Voltage Requirement Commercial Operation or Regulatory Requirements Other Reasons for MRU Dispatch such as System Tests, etc.

Source: NGCP Luzon System Operations and Visayas System Operations

Weekly Summary Report

LUZON PRICING CONDITIONS (FREQUENCY)
DATE Jul-16 Jul-17 Jul-18 Jul-19 Jul-20 Jul-21 Jul-22 AP VALID 12 12 13 14 20 24 24 119 RTD PEN 12 12 11 10 4 49 VALID 21 19 23 24 24 24 24 159 RTX MRR 3 5 1 9

Week 30: 16-22 July 2012

VISAYAS PRICING CONDITIONS (FREQUENCY)

DATE Jul-16 Jul-17 Jul-18 Jul-19 Jul-20 Jul-21 Jul-22 AP VALID 19 18 23 24 24 24 24 156 RTD PEN 5 6 1 12 VALID 21 19 23 24 24 24 24 159 RTX MRR 3 5 1 9

AP VALID PEN/MRR

Trading hours affected by Market Intervention Trading hours with no issuance of PEN or Market Intervention Trading hours issued with pricing errors

REASON FOR PRICING ERRORS, LUZON

LUZON, EX-ANTE PEN DATE Jul-16 Jul-17 Jul-18 Jul-19 Jul-20 Jul-21 Jul-22 UGEN 1 3 4 VOLL 5 4 1 10 CONT 12 11 11 10 4 48 BC PSM 2 1 3 ERR -

REASON FOR PRICING ERRORS, VISAYAS

VISAYAS, EX-ANTE PEN DATE Jul-16 Jul-17 Jul-18 Jul-19 Jul-20 Jul-21 Jul-22 UGEN 1 3 4 VOLL 4 1 5 CONT 1 1 BC PSM 2 1 3 ERR -

LUZON, EX-POST PEN DATE Jul-16 Jul-17 Jul-18 Jul-19 Jul-20 Jul-21 Jul-22 UGEN 3 5 1 9 VOLL CONT BC PSM ERR -

VISAYAS, EX-POST PEN DATE Jul-16 Jul-17 Jul-18 Jul-19 Jul-20 Jul-21 Jul-22 UGEN 3 5 1 9 VOLL CONT BC PSM ERR -

UGEN VOLL CONT

Under-generation Nodal Value of Lost Load Contingency CVC

BC PSM ERR

Base Case CVC Subject to the Price Substitution Methodology Erroneous Input or Snapshot Information