Time Preference and Natural Resource Use by Local Communities: The Case of Sinharaja Forest in Sri Lanka

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About the Paper
H. M. Gunatilake, W.A.R. Wickramasinghe, and P. Abeygunawardena estimate
individuals discount rate using a stated preference survey among peripheral
villagers of a forest reserve in Sri Lanka. Results show that poverty is an
important determinant of discount rates, and higher discount rates cause depletion
of forest resources. The paper asserts that a long-term strategy for nature reserve
protection would require poverty reduction in the peripheral communities,
among other measures.
August 2007
ERD
ECONOMICS AND RESEARCH DEPARTMENT
Working Paper
SERI ES
No.
1
H. M. Gunatilake, W.A.R. Wickramasinghe,
and P. Abeygunawardena
Time Preference and Natural
Resource Use by Local
Communities: The Case
of Sinharaja Forest
in Sri Lanka
of Sinharaja Forest
in Sri Lanka

00
< 0 0 81 3 0 75 >
fk0 work!ng Paper ho. 100
Time Preference and naTural resource use
by local communiTies:
The case of sinharaja foresT in sri lanka
h. m. GunaTilake, W.a.r. WickramasinGhe,
and P. abeyGunaWardena
auGusT 2007
H. M. Gunatilake is a Senior Economist at the Economic Analysis and Operations Support Division, Economics and
Research Department, Asian Development Bank; W.A.R. Wickramasinghe is a Graduate Student at the Amsterdam
Institute for Metropolitan and International Development Studies, University of Amsterdam, The Netherlands; and
P. Abeygunawardena is a Principal Energy Economist at the South Asia Regional Department, Asian Development
Bank.
2007 by Asian Development Bank
August 2007
ISSN 1655-5252
The views expressed in this paper
are those of the author(s) and do not
necessarily refect the views or policies
of the Asian Development Bank.
f0kfw0k0
The ERD Working Paper Series is a forum for ongoing and recently completed
research and policy studies undertaken in the Asian Development Bank or on
its behalf. The Series is a quick-disseminating, informal publication meant to
stimulate discussion and elicit feedback. Papers published under this Series
could subsequently be revised for publication as articles in professional journals
or chapters in books.
f0hIfhIS

Abstract vii
I. INTRODUCTION 1
II. II. NONTIMBER fOREST PRODUCTS HARVESTING AND fOREST CONSERVATION 2
III. ESTIMATION Of III. ESTIMATION Of INDIVIDUAl RATE Of TIME PREfERENCE 3
A. Estimating the Individual Rate of Time Preference A. Estimating the Individual Rate of Time Preference 4
B. Elicitation Question 5
IV. HPOTHESES AND MODEl SPECIfICATION IV. HPOTHESES AND MODEl SPECIfICATION 6
A. Determinants of IRTP A. Determinants of IRTP 6
B. Socioeconomic Determinants of NTfP Harvesting 8
V. SAMPlING, DATA COllECTION, AND MEASUREMENT Of VARIABlES 1 V. SAMPlING, DATA COllECTION, AND MEASUREMENT Of VARIABlES 10
VI. RESUlTS AND DISCUSSION 1 VI. RESUlTS AND DISCUSSION 12
VII. CONClUSIONS AND POlIC IMPlICATIONS 1 VII. CONClUSIONS AND POlIC IMPlICATIONS 17
Appendix 1 Sample Distribution 1 Appendix 1 Sample Distribution 18
Appendix 2 Data Used to Develop Market Incorporation Index 19
Appendix 3 Tests for Multicolinearity 20
Appendix 4 Test for Simultaneity and Contemporaneous Cross Correlation 21
References 2 References 22
A8SIkAfI
Empirical studies on the impact of the individual rate of time preference
(IRTP) on natural resource use are scarce. This paper investigates the impact
of IRTP on forest resources harvesting from the Sinharaja Man and Biosphere
Reserve in Sri lanka. The impact of IRTP on the harvest rate of forest resources
was tested using a simultaneous equation model. Analysis of the determinants of
IRTP shows that the base value and age of the respondents negatively infuence
the IRTP while risk perception positively infuences the IRTP. More importantly,
low income induces a higher IRTP, indicating that poverty is an important
determinant of the IRTP. further, the results show that individuals with a higher
rate of time preference harvest more forest resources. Overall, the results suggest
that long-term strategies for management of nature reserves would require poverty
alleviation in the peripheral communities, among other measures.
I. IhIk00ufII0h
An individuals preference for current over future consumption, called the rate of time preference
or the rate of discount,
1
is an important topic in economics. The generally held perception is that
a higher rate of time preference typically accelerates natural resource harvesting and depresses
investment for sustainable natural resource management. Higher discount rates
2
also reduce the
weights attached to the needs and desires of future generations. Therefore, a higher rate of time
preference is viewed as a cause of depletion of natural resources and an obstacle to conservation.
With this perception in mind, many environmentalists have suggested the use of lower discount
rates for evaluation of natural resources and environmental projects.
This idea of using lower discount rates in natural resources and environmental projects is
not new. Discussions on adjustment of the discount rate for conservation of the stock of natural
capital, both in exhaustible and renewable resources, have persisted since the 1930s (fisher and
Krutilla 1995). Pigou (1932) may be the frst to point out the need to use lower discount rates
in the case of management of exhaustible resources (quoted in fisher and Krutilla 1995). Early
writings in natural resource economics consistently showed that a higher rate of discount leads to
excessive use of natural resources. for example, see discussions by Hotelling (1931) for exhaustible
resources and Clark (1973) for renewable resources. In recent times, there has been renewed interest
in the argument for using a lower discount rate. for example, Weitzman (1994) argues for lower and
declining discount rates for long-term beneft-cost analysis, for a variety of economic reasons. He
further argues (Weitzman 1998) for the lowest possible discount rate for discounting the distant
future. More recently, the use of a low discount rate in the Stern Report (Stern 2006) to estimate
the cost of climate change has stimulated a heated debate on the impact of discounting on natural
resources and the environment.
Despite its persistence for a long time, the claim that a lower discount rate is desirable for
natural resource conservation has not been universally accepted by economists. for example, fisher
and Krutilla (1995) argue that an arbitrary reduction of the social discount rate is likely to result in
more rapid extraction and wasteful use of natural resources. The mass balance principle, described
by Ayres and Kneese (1969), also shows that high discount rates discourage more natural resources
use than low discount rates do. farzin (1984) shows that the discount rate has an ambiguous
effect on the depletion period of an exhaustible resource under two situations (i) backstop price
is a function of the rate of time preference; and (ii) production is capital-intensive. Bulte and van
Soest (1996) explain that under the circumstance of restricted supply (due to existence of timber
concession contracts), depleting the primary stock of forests implies building a stock of secondary
1
Time preference is defned as the marginal rate of substitution between current and future consumption (Becker and Time preference is defned as the marginal rate of substitution between current and future consumption (Becker and
Mulligan 1997). We use the terms rate of time preference and discount rate interchangeably, as did Poulos and
Whittington (2000), Godoy et al. (1998), Becker and Mulligan (1997), and Olson and Bailey (1981).
2
In day-to-day decisions, people apply their time preference. In order to refect this practice of use of time preference, In day-to-day decisions, people apply their time preference. In order to refect this practice of use of time preference,
future costs and benefts are discounted in project analysis. The social discount rate is also infuenced by the opportunity
cost of capital. See Zhuang et al. (2007) for a good discussion on the theory and practice of discounting.
forests. When this happens, as they argue, the impact of the rate of time preference on the primary
forest stock is ambiguous. Price (1991) also claims that lowering the discount rate may actually
promote short-term exploitation of forests.
Most of the above claims on the impact of time preference on natural resource use are based
on theoretical models/arguments. When theory does not show clear direction of a relationship,
empirical work may play an important role. However, empirical work that verifes the relationship
between time preference and rate of natural resources use is limited. This lack of empirical tests
on the impact of the rate of time preference on natural resource harvesting is more signifcant
in developing countries where some of the important resources such as tropical rain forests are
found. It is also important to note that most of the people living near such resources are either
poor or extremely poor. Their survival often depends on continuous availability of such resources.
In this study, we examine the relationship between individual rate of time preference (IRTP) and
the harvest of forest resources by local communities.
Among the few empirical studies that attempted to estimate IRTP in developing countries,
Poulos and Whittington (2000) use data on mortality reduction in Africa, Eastern Europe, and Asia.
Holden et al. (1998) measure IRTP in Indonesia, Zambia, and Ethiopia using a stated preference
survey. Reddy (1995) estimates IRTP using durable energy carrier choices in urban Indian households.
Pender (1996) estimates the IRTP of rural villagers in southern India and relates this to credit
markets. While these studies have estimated IRTP for various purposes in developing countries, the
work of Godoy et al. (1998) is the only study that we know of that has estimated IRTP in developing
countries in relation to forest resource use. Godoy et al. estimate the IRTP of peripheral villagers
of Bolivian rainforests and relate it to the clearance of old growth forests. Their fndings suggest
that a higher IRTP is associated with less deforestation, which is contrary to common perception.
Against this background, the objective of the present study is to test whether an individual with
a higher rate of time preference harvests more forest resources, specifcally, nontimber forest
products (NTfP). Our fndings show that individuals with a higher rate of time preference harvest
more forest resources.
The rest of the paper is organized as follows. The second section discusses the importance
of NTfP in managing protected rain forests and their contributions to poverty reduction. The third
section describes the use of the survey method in eliciting the IRTP in the case study area of the
Sinharaja forest. The fourth section presents the details of model specifcation and hypotheses of the
study. The ffth section describes the study area, sampling, and data collection. Section six discusses
the results of the study, and the fnal section presents conclusions and policy implications.
II. h0hIIH8fk f0kfSI Pk00ufIS hAkvfSIIh6 Ah0 f0kfSI f0hSfkvAII0h
Nontimber forest products include a variety of products such as food (fruits, vegetables, yams,
green leaves); game animals; medicinal plants; and raw materials for cottage industries (such as
bamboo, rattan, resins, sugary saps). In the past, forest managers focused only on managing timber
resources and, in effect, ignored the other forest products used by local communities. Work by Peters
et al. (1989), de Beer and McDermott (1989), Panayotou and Ashton (1992), Godoy et al. (1993),
and Gunatilake (1995), among other studies, showed the signifcance of NTfP in sustaining rural
livelihoods and their potential role in the protection/destruction of biological diversity.
2 August 2007
time Preference And nAturAl resource use by locAl communities: the cAse of sinhArAjA forest in sri lAnkA
h. m. gunAtilAke, W. A. r. WickrAmAsinghe, And P. AbeygunAWArdenA
section iii
estimAtion of individuAl rAte of time Preference
loss of biodiversity is a cause for global concern. The major policy response of developing
countries to this growing concern has been to designate more lands as protected areas (Ghimire
1994). There are more than 8,500 protected areas in the world today, which cover about 800 million
hectares of land. A large portion of these protected areas is located in developing countries. Although
developing countries have allocated forest land for protection, often due to various pressures from
local and international interest groups, management of these sites has not been successful. One of
the major problems faced in the management of protected areas in developing countries is resource
use by local communities (Gunatilake 1998). for example, resource use by local communities is a
major cause of the loss of closed canopy forests in Asia, rather than the commercial extraction of
timber, as traditionally perceived (World Bank 1993).
forest land clearance for agriculture by local communities accounts for part of the destruction
of natural forests. Once the boundary of a protected forest is well established, forest clearing for
agriculture becomes less feasible while NTfP extraction may continue (Gunatilake and Chakravorty
2002). forest resource use by local communities is important due to a number of reasons. first, local
communities have the closest physical contact with forests and have been using forest resources for
generations. Second, local communities are adversely affected by resource use restrictions imposed
by conservation projects (Gunatilake et al. 1993, Wells 1992, Panayotou 1994, Gunatilake 1995 and
1998, Shyamsundar and Kramer 1996). Third, local communities extract most of the NTfPs for their
survival rather than for commercial uses. fourth, there is a mismatch between what is considered as
benefts from conservation by local communities and by conservationists. finally, local communities
may have little or no incentive for conservation because the benefts of rainforest conservation
largely fow to national and global levels due to associated externalities (Tisdell 1995). Therefore,
better understanding of the interactions between protected forests and rural communities living
around them is crucial for the successful implementation of conservation projects.
Harvesting forest resources by local communities, as generally perceived, may be ecologically
less destructive compared to clear felling of a forest for timber. However, there is continuing debate
on the conditions necessary for sustainable harvest of nontimber forest resources and the extent
to which such NTfP use affects conservation (Wells 1992, Homma 1992, Hanson 1992, Browder
1992, Godoy et al. 1995, Simpson 1995). Most of the assertions on the impact of forest resource
use by local communities on biological diversity in the present debate are derived from logical
arguments and historical reviews. Gunatilake (1998) argues for reduction of the dependency on NTfP
as a conservation strategy. Given scientifc uncertainties, practical diffculties, and the high cost
of ecological monitoring required to ensure the sustainable use of NTfP by local communities, he
proposes the reduction of dependency through rural development activities. This is seen as a more
pragmatic and cost-effective approach to forest protection.
III. fSIIHAII0h 0f Ih0IvI0uAL kAIf 0f IIHf Pkfffkfhff
In this paper, we estimate the IRTP using a stated preference survey among the peripheral
villagers of the Sinharaja Man and Biosphere Reserve in Sri lanka. We use a simple discounted utility
model that is commonly used as the theoretical framework in estimating the IRTP. This model is
adopted from Olson and Bailey (1981) and Poulos and Whittington (2000) and modifed slightly to
represent the study context.
erd Working PAPer series no. 100 3
A. fst!mat!ng the Ind!v!duaI kate of I!me Preference
Consider a representative villager living in the periphery of a protected forest. Assume that
the individuals utility function has one argument, which represents a composite commodity C.
U w U C
t t
t
T
=
=
( )
0
(1)
where T is the planning horizon of the individual, w
t
is the discount factor, and C
t
is the consumption
at time t. We assume that utility is increasing at a decreasing rate with C, lifetime utility is
additively separable, and the utility function is stable over time. The discount factor is a function
of pure time preference r and time t.
w= f(r,t)
t
(2)
Consider two distinct time periods, 0 and T. Assume that the consumption level for all the periods
except for time 0 and T are constant. At the individuals point of indifference between marginal
changes in consumption on the periods 0 and T
dU U C dC f r T U C dC
T T
= + = ( ) ( , ) ( )
0 0
0 (3)
(4)
The right hand side of equation (4) shows how the individual trades off current and future
consumptions in order to keep his/her utility constant. The rate at which future and current utilities
are traded is equal to the discount factor. The discount factor is a function of the pure rate of time
preference, r, and the intertemporal marginal rate of substitution. The second component represents
diminishing marginal utility of future consumption arising due to future income increases (Olson
and Bailey 1981).
Defne
(5)
In order to adapt the above general case to NTfP harvesting, assume that the utility function
only has the NTfP income as an argument. Assume a villager is faced with a choice of NTfP income
in two time periods, 0 and T. We can rewrite the utility function more precisely as,
(6)
If the individual is indifferent between NTfP income levels I
0
and I
T
, the choice can be
represented as
(7)
Total differentiation of (7) provides
(8)
Rearranging the above results in
dC
dC
f r T
U C
U C
T
T 0
0
=

( , )
( )
( )
U = constant
1
1
0
( )
( , )
( )
( ) +
=
r
f r T
U C
U C
T
T
T 0
U = U(I , I )
T 0
U(I ,O) = f(r,T) U(O,I )
T 0
U(I ) I + f(r,T) U(I ) I = 0
0

T
4 August 2007
I
I
f r T
U I
U I T
T
0
0
= ( , )
( )
( )
(9)
Using the results of (5) and solving equation (9) for r provides
(10)
Equation (10) shows that the IRTP can be estimated, if one can fnd the future income level
(I
T
) and current income (I
0
) that can keep the individuals utility constant. Stated preference survey
questions can be designed to elicit the indifference between a given current level of income and
a future level of income.
8. fI!c!tat!on 0uest!on
loewenstein and Prelec (1992) identify four anomalies that commonly occur in eliciting the
IRTP using stated preference questions common difference effect, absolute magnitude effect,
gain-loss asymmetry, and delay speed-up asymmetry. Preference between the two consumption
adjustments should depend on the absolute time interval separating them. This is known as the
stationarity property.
3
Violation of the stationarity property is known as the common difference
effect. Empirical studies on IRTP show that large money values suffer less proportional discounting
than do small amounts. This effect is known as the absolute magnitude effect. Another behavior
observed in previous studies is that losses are discounted at a lower rate than gains. This anomaly
is known as the gain-loss asymmetry. finally, the preferences of the intertemporal choices are
asymmetric for speed-up or delaying consumption. When framing an elicitation question for IRTP,
one needs to consider the above four anomalies.
In our study, we frst conducted a survey on NTfP harvesting by household. While the survey
was going on, the quantities of NTfP harvested were input into an Excel spreadsheet, which is
programmed to provide the total value of NTfP. Then we asked the following elicitation question
from the respondent
The forest Department (fD) has decided to completely stop NTfP collection in the
Sinharaja forest for one year to allow recovery of the forest. fD will make a payment
to each household in order to compensate for lost NTfP income during this year. The
payment is equal to last-years value of NTfP. our last-year NTfP income is (I
0
) and
you will receive this amount from fD for not collecting NTfP from Sinharaja during the
next year. However, due to administrative problems, the payment may be delayed. How
much do you want the fD to pay you if the payment is made exactly after one year from
the due date? (I
T
).
The question was repeated with different delaying times (years 1, 2, 3, 5, 10, and 15).
With this elicitation format, every individual gets a question with a different base value since
NTfP income varies across households. These different base values allow us to isolate the impact of
3
Delaying consumption from year 1 to 5 should have the same impact as year 5 to 10. However the empirical studies Delaying consumption from year 1 to 5 should have the same impact as year 5 to 10. However the empirical studies
show different time preferences in these types of cases despite the fact that absolute differences are the same.
section iii
estimAtion of individuAl rAte of time Preference
r
I
I
T
T
=

0
1
1
absolute magnitude effect by incorporating the base value as an explanatory variable in the equation
for determinants of IRTP. Varying time delays are used in the elicitation format to account for the
common difference effect. We estimated the IRTP for each individual for the above six different time
delays and took the average value as the IRTP of that individual in our analysis on the impact of
IRTP on NTfP harvesting. However, the other two anomalies identifed by loewenstein and Prelec
(1992) were not addressed by our eliciting format.
One reason for our inability to account for gain-loss asymmetry is the diffculty involved in
interpreting the above format as a gain or loss. Collection of NTfP is always subjected to some
uncertainty and involves laborious work. Therefore, villagers may consider that payment made by
the fD, equivalent to NTfP value, as a gain. On the other hand, people collect a variety of products
from the forest and this variety adds diversity to their lives. Certain NTfP may not have substitutes
in the market. In that case, the above format may be interpreted as a loss, rather than a gain.
Moreover, the next year may provide more NTfP due to natural fuctuations. In that case, income
based on this years NTfP value may imply a loss. Despite this diffculty to interpret whether the
above eliciting format represents a gain or a loss, we attempted a different format to represent a
loss. In that format, the eliciting question was framed stating that the household should pay the
value of collected NTfP to the fD to represent a loss. In the pre-testing stage we understood that
the question was too sensitive and people did not accept the scenario that they should pay for
the resources, which they have been using for generations. Pretesting indicated a large proportion
of scenario rejection. Therefore, the elicitation format developed to represent loss of income was
dropped.
Accounting for the speed/delay anomaly was also tried. However, it was felt that too many
of these questions confuse the rural households. Respondent fatigue was observed during the
pretesting with different formats in a sequence with the same respondent. Based on the focus group
discussions and experience of pretesting, the above format was selected as the best eliciting format.
One potential problem with our elicitation format is the hypothetical nature of the question. Many
researchers such as Pender (1996), Holden et al. (1998), and Poulos and Whittington (2000) have
estimated IRTP values in developing countries with hypothetical questions. In order to avoid the
hypothetical nature problem, actual payments were made by some researchers (for example, Godoy
et al. 1998, and Gunatilake and Chakravorty 2002). We did not attempt to use actual payments
because our budget was inadequate to make such payments. Moreover, in actual payment studies,
time delays will have to be limited to a few days or weeks, for practical reasons. If time delays
are limited to a few days or weeks, the researcher would not be able to account for the common
difference effect.
Iv. hYP0IhfSfS Ah0 H00fL SPffIfIfAII0h
A. 0eterm!nants of IkIP
In this study we test two sets of hypotheses. The first set of hypotheses analyzes the
determinants of IRTP. Table 1 presents the variables included in the IRTP equation and the expected
relationships.
6 August 2007
section iv
hyPotheses And model sPecificAtion
Table 1
Variables used in Time Preference model
Variable exPecTed relaTionshiP
Base value (X
1
) Negative
Respondents education (X
2
) Negative
Total household income (X
3
) Negative
Respondents age (X
4
) Negative
Risk perception (X
5
) Positive
(i) Base Value. As mentioned earlier, base value is included as an explanatory variable in
order to account for the absolute magnitude effect. There is a tendency to discount
future incomes at lower rates when the sums involved are large (loewenstein and Prelec
1992). The study by Benzion et al. (1989) also shows that the IRTP is inversely related
with the base value. Therefore, we assume that the rate of time preference is negatively
related with the base value.
(ii) Level of Education. Education facilitates people to imagine the future vividly. Educated
people have a better appreciation of future utility or benefts. Moreover, the level of , the level of the level of
education is assumed to increase income and consequently reduce poverty. Therefore,
education reduces impatience, leading to lower rates of time preference (Becker and Mulligan
1997). It is hypothesized that IRTP is negatively related to the level of education.
(iii) Household Income. It is claimed that people who have higher income levels possess a lower
rate of time preference than those with lower income levels (Becker and Mulligan 1997).
low-income groups are expected to be more impatient due to the great need for providing
for current consumption as well as due to lack of self-control and foresight. Hausman
(1979), Reddy (1995), and Holden et al. (1998) show consistent empirical evidence on
the negative relationship between income and IRTP. The Poulos and Whittington (2000)
study, however, does not show a strong relationship between IRTP and income. In this
study we hypothesize income to be inversely related to IRTP.
(iv) Age. The effect of age on the rate of time preference is ambiguous. It is argued that older
people have a lower rate of time preference than younger people due to the impatience
of the young. Counter arguments suggest that older people tend to consume more at
present than in the future due to the uncertainty of living longer. However, the need
for leaving bequests prevents the aged from possessing extremely high IRTP (Boardman
et al. 1996). According to Becker and Mulligan (1997), the younger and the older have
similar rates of time preference. In this study, we assume that the rate of time preference
is inversely related with the age of the respondent.
(v) Risk Perception. When the peoples existence, prevalence of similar preference for consumption
in the future, and availability of benefts in the future are uncertain, people perceive
that they would not be able to consume in the future. As a result, they tend to have
a higher IRTP. According to Olson and Bailey (1981), uncertainty can affect positively
or negatively the IRTP and it is to a large extent an empirical matter. They argue that
risk aversion and absence of insurance markets for most goods may play a role in the
determination of IRTP. Holden et al.s results (1998) show that risk-averse people tend
to have lower discount rates. In this study we assume that individuals perception on
risk and IRTP are directly related.
8. Soc!oeconom!c 0eterm!nants of hIfP harvest!ng
The second set of hypotheses analyzes the socioeconomic determinants of NTfP harvesting in
which the IRTP is one argument. Gunatilake (1998) and Gunatilake and Chakravorty (2002) have
studied the determinants of NTfP extraction previously in the same study area. Our main objective
is to study the impact of IRTP on NTfP harvesting, rather than determinants of NTfP harvesting.
However, analysis on the determinants of NTfP harvesting is repeated in this study in order to avoid
specifcation errors due to omitted variables in the second equation. Table 2 provides a summary
of the variables and anticipated relationships.
Table 2
Variables used in nTfP harVesTinG equaTion and exPecTed relaTionshiPs
Variable exPecTed relaTionshiP
Rate of time preference (
1
) Positive
level of education (X
2
) Negative
Agricultural income (X
6
) Negative
Other income (X
7
) Negative
family size (X
9
) Positive
Distance to forest (X
10
) Negative
Malefemale ratio (X
11
) Positive
Index for market incorporation (X
12
) Positive
(i) IRTP. It is claimed that the greater the rate of time preference, the higher is the rate of
resource use. Persons with high rates of time preference are more impatient compared
to those with low rates of time preference. The more impatient persons extract more
resources at present relative to less impatient persons. Gunatilake and Chakravorty (2002)
show, using a theoretical model, that villagers with a higher time preference harvest
more NTfP. In this study, we assume a positive relationship between IRTP and quantity
of NTfP harvested.
(ii) Level of Education. As pointed out by Anderson (1992), NTfP harvesting requires low
levels of capital and also brings low economic returns. There is evidence indicating
that higher wages in the rural community result in less dependency on forest resources
(Bluffstone 1995, Dufoumaud et al. 1995, Kerkvliet and Nebesky 1997, Gopalakrishnan
et al. 2005). Higher education enables earning higher wages. Moreover, individuals with
high opportunity costs of labor show less interest in forest extraction relative to those
with low opportunity costs. Therefore, level of education is assumed to be inversely
related to the quantity of NTfP harvested.
(iii) Agricultural Income. Gunatilake and Chakravorty (2002), using a model of competitive
time allocation between forestry and agriculture, show that higher agricultural prices
8 August 2007
lead to the harvesting of decreased quantities of NTfP. Agricultural income is a proxy
for agricultural prices. Therefore, in this study we hypothesize that agricultural income
is inversely related to NTfP harvesting.
(iv) Nonagricultural and Nonforest Income. Assume that a household allocates its total available
time among forest-gathering activities, agriculture, and other economic activities. The
more time it allocates for other economic activities leaves less time available for forest-
resource harvesting and agriculture. In such a competitive time allocation framework, the
dependency on the forest is assumed to decrease with the availability of income from
other sources (Gunatilake and Gopalakrishnan 2002). As people become rich with higher
levels of other income, they tend to veer away from subsistence economic activities
such as gathering NTfP and shifting cultivation (Godoy and Bawa 1993, Gunatilake et
al. 1993, Godoy et al. 1995). Moreover, working for nonagricultural and nonforest income
occupies the people throughout the year, which leaves less or no time for forest-resource
gathering activities (Gunatilake 1998). Therefore, it is hypothesized that income other
than from agriculture and forestry is inversely related to NTfP harvesting.
(v) Extent of Homestead. Homestead is supposed to be an alternative source for forest
products because it has the potential of providing forest products such as fuel wood,
greens, spices and some vegetables, yams, etc. Therefore, it is hypothesized that NTfP
harvesting is inversely related to the extent of homestead.
(vi) Family Size. If a family has more members, it needs extra income to support extra subsistence
requirements. On the other hand, larger families may have more labor available for forest
resource gathering. Hence, larger families can allocate more labor for NTfP harvesting in
order to fulfll additional requirements (Gunatilake and Gopalakrishnan 2002). Accordingly,
we hypothesize that NTfP harvesting is directly related to family size.
(vii) Distance to the Forest. Households residing close to the forest require less time to reach
NTfP sources, compared to those residing far away. In previous studies, Gunatilake (1998)
and Gunatilake and Chakravorty (2002) show a negative relationship between NTfP
harvesting and distance to the forest. In this study, we also hypothesize that distance
to the forest is inversely related to NTfP harvesting.
(viii) MaleFemale Ratio. Composition of the NTfP varies from site to site. Depending on the
tradition of division of labor and composition of NTfP, the malefemale ratio can have
a positive or negative relationship with NTfP gathering. In the Sinharaja area, males
seem to be involved in many forest-based activities. Among the forest-based activities
in the study area, males generally carry out Kithul
4
tapping, trapping and hunting wild
animals, collecting materials for weaving baskets, and collecting food items. Consequently,
a family with more males is supposed to extract more forest products relative to a family
with few males. Therefore, it is hypothesized that NTfP harvesting is directly related to
the malefemale ratio in a family.
(ix) Market Incorporation. Integration of remote villages with outside markets through better
infrastructure may affect NTfP harvesting in different ways. One argument is that outside
markets provide many opportunities for income-generating activities. Therefore, market
incorporation reduces dependency on forest resources. Browder (1992) and Godoy and
4
The fower of the Kithul palm tree is tapped for its sugary sap. The fower of the Kithul palm tree is tapped for its sugary sap.
section iv
hyPotheses And model sPecificAtion
Bawa (1993) assert that people living far away from markets may deplete forest resources.
A counter argument is that when rural communities are linked with outside markets, it
provides avenues for harvesting NTfP for commercial purposes. Compared to subsistence
uses, commercial uses may lead to the harvesting of more NTfP and lead to quicker forest
resource depletion. In this study, we hypothesize that the rate of forest resource harvesting
is directly related to the integration of rural communities with outside markets.
The above-described two sets of hypotheses were tested using two regression equations for
IRTP and NTfP harvesting. The dependent variable in the IRTP equation is an independent variable
in the NTfP equation. This may cause simultaneity bias if these equations are estimated as single
equations. A closer look at the equations shows that they represent a recursive system. However,
the simultaneity test (Hausman test) indicates the presence of simultaneous bias. Therefore, we
estimated the equations as a system. We used order and rank conditions as described by Greene
(2000) to identify the equation and our analysis shows that equations are overidentifed. Therefore,
we used two-stage least squares method to estimate the equations simultaneously.
v. SAHPLIh6, 0AIA f0LLffII0h, Ah0 HfASukfHfhI 0f vAkIA8LfS
The Sinharaja Man and Biosphere reserve is a lowland rainforest located in southern Sri lanka.
The biological richness of Sinharaja has drawn the attention of the national and international
community. It was declared as a Man and Biosphere Reserve in 1978 by the United Nations Educational,
Scientifc and Childrens Organization, which also recognized the Sinharaja as a World Heritage Site
in 1988. The Sinharaja is the only remaining relatively large (11,000 hectares) and less disturbed
lowland tropical rainforest in Sri lanka. Nine of the 15 foristic regions in the country are located
in the Sinharaja. Ninety-fve percent of the endemic birds and 70% of the endemic woody plants
are said to exist in the Sinharaja (Gunatilleke and Gunatilleke 1980). There is a considerably large
forest-dependent community living around the forest. McDermott et al. (1990) have identifed 223
plant species, which are of some use to villagers. The biological richness and the long-lasting
forestrypeople interactions existing in the Sinharaja, thus make it an ideal site for empirical
verifcation of the hypotheses described earlier in this paper.
The property right of a forest resource affects the IRTP of resource users. for example, Hardins
tragedy of the commons (1968) occurs in an open-access situation and that the implied IRTP
in this situation is infnite (Pender 1996). The government owns the Sinharaja forest and NTfP
extraction was legally prohibited by early legislation. The Sri lanka forestry Sector Master Plan
(Ministry of forestry and Environment 1995) recommended allowing local communities to use NTfP
from protected forests in Sri lanka. Since then the fD adopted a lenient attitude toward NTfP use
by local communities, though it does not actively promote the use of NTfP in the Sinharaja. The
fD issues permits for tapping Kithul trees in the forest. There are a number of nongovernmental
organizations working in the area promoting the marketing and processing of some NTfP and cottage
industries using NTfP. Other projects involve enrichment planting of selected NTfP in the buffer
zone of the forest with community participation. Given all these activities in the community, some
form of community management regime for forest resources seems to be evolving. Therefore, a de
facto open-access extractive reserve, often developed with government ownership, does not prevail
in the Sinharaja forest.
The study was conducted in peripheral villages of fve forest patches newly added to the
Sinharaja protected area. They are Delwala and Walankanda forests in Ratnapura district, Runakanda
10 August 2007
section v
sAmPling, dAtA collection, And meAsurement of vAriAbles
forest in Kalutara district, Dellawa forest in Galle district, and Diyadawa forest in Matara district.
In selecting the sample, socioeconomic profles were prepared for 17 Gramasevaka (GS) divisions
(lowest administrative unit in Sri lanka) adjoining the selected forest patches using rapid rural
appraisal methods. The total number of forest-dependent households in these GS divisions was
identifed to be 1,909 in the 17 GS divisions. A sample of 180 forest-dependent households (9.4%)
was selected from the population. The sample was stratifed using the GS divisions. The number
of households per GS division was determined by considering the proportion of forest-dependent
families in the GS division. Random number tables were used to select the predetermined number
from forest-dependent households of each GS division. Appendix 1 provides the details of the
sample distribution.
A member of each household who is mainly responsible for household decisions was interviewed.
The survey was conducted in May, July, and August 2000. The questionnaire was pretested and a
number of focus group discussions were held before conducting the survey. The information collected
included socioeconomic data such as age, education level of the respondent, total household
income, number of family members, nontimber forest product extraction during the last year, and
the respondents personal perception of risk for extraction of resources from the natural forest.
People extract different kinds of products from the forest. The NTfP harvesting equation for
each product involves a large number of regression equations. Since the households collect different
combinations of products, there are no adequate data points to estimate a regression equation for
each product. This motivated us to aggregate different NTfP to a single quantity index. The quantity
index for collected goods was prepared by using the following formula
Q
p .x
P
-
j=1....k i
j j
j=1
k
=

,
(11)
where Q
i
is the quantity index of NTfP for the ith household and is the average price of the
NTfP.
P
p .x
x
i=1.....n, j 1...k
i=1
n
ij ij
j=1
k
i=1
n
ij
j=1
k
=

=

,
(12)
Calculation of the NTfP quantity index requires prices of all the forest species gathered by the
villagers. Some NTfPs enter the market exchange process while other NTfPs never enter the market.
The latter category is pure subsistence NTfP for which market prices do not exist. The presence of
subsistence forest commodities poses a problem in their valuation. This study values NTfP using
forest gate prices as the base following Godoy et al. (1993) and Gunatilake et al. (1993). When
a product does not have a forest gate price, but does have a price at a nearby town, such prices
were used to value NTfP after deducting the cost of transport and opportunity cost of time. If the
product is transported manually, only the opportunity cost of time was deducted from the market
price. When a product does not have a price both at the village and nearby town, the price of
a close substitute was used as a proxy. Certain NTfPs have neither prices (in the villages or in
nearby towns) nor close substitutes. In such cases, the contingent valuation method was used to
value these NTfPs. Only few products fall into this category and an open-ended willingness-to-pay
question was asked from randomly selected individuals to fnd the values.
The level of education of each household was also ranked according to attainment. The lowest
rank (1) was for no schooling and the highest rank (7) was for people with university degrees.
When the household income data were collected, the annual income of every family member (except
separately living members) was included. This comprises agricultural income and nonagricultural
income (wage labor, Kithul tapping in nonforest lands, cinnamon bark processing, brick making,
carpentry, etc.). Risk perception was measured according to the respondents answer to the question
How long do you think you can collect NTfPs from the Sinharaja forest? If the individual feels
that he/she can harvest NTfPs for a long period in the future, risk perception was inferred to be
low. Risk perception was ranked (16) according to the inverse of the length of time period. A
market incorporation index was prepared based on the same approach used by Gunatilake (1998) in
a previous study. The components of the index are distance to the nearest town; walking distance
to get a bus; frequency of bus transport to the village and other facilities available in the village,
such as cooperative shop, school, a subpost offce, medical center, and rural bank (see Appendix
2). The information regarding availability of these facilities in each GS division was collected from
the Grama Niladhari (Village Headman) of the division.
vI. kfSuLIS Ah0 0ISfuSSI0h
Out of 180 observations, 175 were included in the analysis. five observations were excluded
from the sample due to inconsistent answers to the IRTP elicitation question. The estimated IRTP
values for different time periods are given in Table 3. According to the results, the villagers discount
future consumption at an average rate of 24%. This is above the existing market rate of interest
for bank loans (18.5%). This higher rate can be partly due to the existing poverty of the people
engaged in forest products collection. Also, the ranges suggest that under each category of delay
in consumption, there is a large variation. As shown in figure 1, the IRTP values show a clear
trend of decline with the increasing delayed time periods. This trend is due to the existence of the
common difference effect. Horowitz (1988) and Benzion et al. (1989) have also found a similar
pattern of declining IRTP with increasing delayed time periods.
Table 3
esTimaTed raTes of Time Preference
consumPTion delay (years)
1 2 3 5 10 15
Average 0.34 0.30 0.28 0.23 0.16 0.13
Standard deviation 0.19 0.16 0.14 0.11 0.08 0.06
Maximum 0.90 0.92 0.71 0.55 0.59 0.38
Minimum 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00
The behavior of the IRTP over different income groups is also depicted in figure 1. During the
frst three years, the highest IRTP values are shown by the second lowest income group ($520781),
while the highest income group (> $1,823) holds the lowest IRTP over the years. Generally, the results
indicate that IRTP declines when income increases. Every income group behaves almost similarly in
valuing future benefts over time when consumption is delayed by different time periods. further,
12 August 2007
section vi
results And discussion
figure 1 indicates that the gaps of IRTP among income groups become narrower when the delayed
time period increases. The reason for this behavior may be the declining ability to imagine future
benefts or costs when they occur in the far distant future (Becker and Mulligan 1997).
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
FIGURE 1
CHANGES IN AVERAGE IRTP FOR DIFFERENT INCOME GROUPS
1 2 3 4
Consumption delays (years)
S
h
a
r
e

o
f

t
o
t
a
l

e
m
p
l
o
y
m
e
n
t

(
p
e
r
c
e
n
t
)
US$520781
US$1,3121,823
< US$520
US$7811,312
US$1,823 <
5 6
As discussed earlier, the impact of time preference on NTfP extraction was investigated by
means of a simultaneous equation model. The descriptive statistics of the variables of these two
equations are presented in Table 4. IRTP values in the table are the averages of each individuals
IRTP over different delayed time periods.
In this study, it was hypothesized that the extent of homestead affects NTfP extraction. Home
gardens in the study area, however, do not represent agro-forestry systems as perceived. People
in the study area cultivate tea, cinnamon, pepper, coconut, and other perennial agricultural crops
mainly as monocultures. In the study area, therefore, homesteads do not produce substitutes for
forest products. Because of this reason, the extent of homestead was excluded from the NTfP
harvesting model. Correlation matrices obtained from two ordinary least squares regression models
were used to check for multicollinearity. The correlation matrices of the variables of the two
models presented in Appendix 3 shows that there is no strong correlation among variables. Both
equations were specifed as log linear models. A number of diagnostic tests indicated the presence
of heteroscedasticity. Since the two-stage least square procedure does not have the built-in capacity
to run for heteroscedastic models, the data were frst corrected for heteroscedasticity using the
weighted least squares method.
Table 4
descriPTiVe sTaTisTics of The Variables used in reGression analysis
Variable aVeraGe sTandard deViaTion maximum minimum
2 - Quantity index of NTfP (kg) 4889.48 6942.43 37992.61 88.97
1 - Average IRTP 0.24 0.12 0.70 0.03
X1 - Base value ($) 306.00 475.00 3125.00 5.00
X2 - Education 2.55 1.03 6.00 1.00
X3 - Total income ($) 1175.00 864.00 5675.00 0.00
X4 - Age of respondent (year) 45.45 11.70 87.00 18.00
X5 - Risk perception 3.43 1.51 6.00 1.00
X6 - Agric. Income ($) 683.00 761.00 4413.00 0.00
X7 - Other income ($) 492.00 553.00 3250.00 0.00
X8 - Homestead extent (ha) 0.26 0.27 1.60 0.00
X9 - No. of family members 4.71 1.73 10.00 1.00
X10 - Distance to forest (km) 0.77 0.93 4.80 0.002
X11 - Male-female ratio 1.37 0.87 5.00 0.00
X12 - Market incorporation index 23.53 9.00 50.30 12.25
NTfP means nontimber forest products.
As mentioned earlier, the simultaneity hypothesis was tested using the Hausman test (Greene
2000). As equations were unidirectional, time preference equation was used to fnd the estimated
residuals and estimated rate of time preference. Then, the ordinary least squares method was used
to estimate NTfP harvesting after substituting the estimated values in the equation. T-statistics for
the estimated residual indicates that the residual is signifcant at 0.01 level. Thus, the simultaneity
assumption was not rejected. Moreover, the models were checked to determine whether their residuals
are contemporaneously correlated. for this, the residual of each model was estimated and they were
regressed using the ordinary least squares method. The residuals correlated matrix indicates that
errors are not correlated (see Appendix 4). As the residuals of the models are not correlated, models
are not contemporaneously correlated in disturbances. Therefore, a seemingly unrelated regression
model is not appropriate for this analysis.
The estimated model for determinants of time preference is presented in Table 5. The coeffcient
of determination (R
2
) of the model is 0.7859. Adjusted R
2
is 0.7828. The small difference between
two R
2
values indicates that there are an adequate number of observations in the model given the
number of dependent variables. The model explains 78.28% of the variation of the individual rate
of time preference in the peripheral community of the Sinharaja forest.
14 August 2007
Table 5
deTerminanTs of irTP
Variable coefficienT sTandard error T-raTio P-Value
Base value 5.87E-02 2.11E-02 2.775 0.006**
Education level 9.06E-02 7.74E-02 1.170 0.242
Total income 2.90E-02 1.57E-02 1.847 0.065*
Age 0.22354 6.95E-02 3.218 0.001**
Risk perception 0.21191 5.84E-02 -3.630 0.000**
Intercept 1.76E-04 3.12E-02 5.65E-03 0.995
**Signifcant at 0.05 level.
*Signifcant at 0.1 level.
The results indicate that the impact of the base value on time preference is negative and
statistically signifcant at 0.05 level. The education-level variable in the estimated model indicates
an inverse relationship with rate of time preference as expected. But, it does not show a statistically
signifcant relationship. This result may be due to the inadequate variation of the education variable
in the sample. According to the survey results, majority (53.3%) of the respondents have attended
grades 1 to 5. About 81.5% of the respondents belong to three categories (ranks 1, 2, 3) according
to the rank assigned for different education levels.
The regression results show that age is positively related to IRTP and it is statistically signifcant
at 0.05 level. Risk perception of individuals shows a positive relationship to IRTP as hypothesized
and it is statistically signifcant at 0.05 level. A noteworthy fnding on the determinants of IRTP is
the statistically signifcant negative impact of income. This result refects that the poor individuals
have high rate of time preference, confrming previous fndings by Hausman (1979), Reddy (1995),
and Holden et al. (1998). The overall results of the determinants of IRTP analysis show that our
IRTP estimation is reliable; and hence is suitable for examining our main hypothesispositive
relationship between IRTP and rate of NTfP harvesting.
The results of the estimated NTfP extraction model are presented in Table 6. The R
2
of this
model is 0.8469. Adjusted R
2
is 0.8433. The two R
2
values show a small difference indicating the
adequacy of the sample size, given the number of dependent variables. The model explains 84.33%
of variation of the NTfP harvesting by the peripheral community of the Sinharaja forest.
section vi
results And discussion
Table 6
resulTs of nTfP harVesTinG model
Rate of time preference 2.7121 0.590 4.597 0.000**
Education level 2.65E-02 0.297 8.94E-02 0.929
Agricultural income 2.75E-02 3.15E-02 0.8747 0.382
Other income 7.88E-02 2.48E-02 3.179 0.001**
family size 0.51842 0.285 1.819 0.069*
Distance to forest 0.14825 6.58E-02 2.252 0.024**
Male-female ratio 0.38726 0.2057 1.883 0.060*
Market incorporation index 0.98778 0.2917 3.386 0.001**
Intercept 4.2662 0.8838 4.827 0.000**
**Signifcant at 0.05 level.
*Signifcant at 0.1 level.
The most important fnding in the NTfP harvesting model is that the rate of time preference
positively affects forest resource harvesting. The relationship is statistically signifcant at 0.05
level. This result agrees with the theoretical expectations regarding time preference and resource
extraction. Our fnding is, however, different from that of Godoy et al. (1998), owing to different
contexts. Our study examines the relationship between IRTP and harvesting nontimber forest products
(NTfP) from a protected forest whereas Godoy et al. focus on forest land clearance. In the case of
forest land clearance, impatient individuals clear secondary forests, which does less harm to virgin
forests. Godoy et al. cast doubt on the positive relationship between IRTP and forest resource
depletion. Availability of two types of forests for clearance and the differential impacts of clearance
of these two types make their case quite different from ours. Therefore, our results do not directly
contradict Godoy et al.s fndings.
The other results in this model have been shown earlier (see for example, Gunatilake 1998;
Gunatilake and Chakravorty 2002). Except for a few variables, the results confrm previous fndings.
Therefore, we briefy discuss the rest of the results of the NTfP harvesting model. Nonagricultural and
nonforest income shows the expected relationship to NTfP harvesting with statistical signifcance.
family size and malefemale ratio show the expected positive relationship to NTfP harvesting (at
0.1 signifcance level) as hypothesized. These results indicate that forest extraction activities are
male-dominant and larger families extract more NTfP in the study area. Distance to the forest also
shows the negative impact on NTfP harvesting as expected.
Education does not show any statistically signifcant relationship to NTfP harvesting. As
mentioned earlier, this result may be due to inadequate variation found in the education variable.
Agricultural income also does not show the expected relationship to NTfP harvesting. In this case,
the expected negative relationship arises due to competitive time allocation between agriculture
and forest resource extraction. However, if forest resource harvesting occurs during the off-season of
agriculture, this relationship may not hold. Our data do not show such a pattern of time allocation
and hence this is a matter that needs further investigation. Market incorporation shows a positive
16 August 2007
section vii
conclusions And Policy imPlicAtions
relationship to NTfP harvesting. In a previous study, Gunatilake and Gopalakrishnan (2002) show a
negative relationship between these variables. Theory tells us that this relationship can be positive
or negative. The available empirical evidence is also inconclusive. Therefore, further empirical
research on this aspect is warranted.
vII. f0hfLuSI0hS Ah0 P0LIfY IHPLIfAII0hS
We estimated the IRTP of the peripheral villagers of the Sinharaja forest Reserve in order to
examine the impact of IRTP on NTfP harvesting. A stated preference survey question was used to
estimate IRTP and special attention was paid to account for the possible anomalies occurring in
such studies. Average IRTP was estimated at 24%, which is higher than the existing market rate of
borrowing at the time of investigation. Determinants of the IRTP were assessed using a regression
model. Results show that family income and base value are negatively related to IRTP while risk
perception and age are positively related to the IRTP. IRTP declines as the time delay in consumption
increases for all income groups. This has been observed in many previous researches on IRTP.
The realistic IRTP values and confrmation of their relationships to determinants with theoretical
expectations show that our IRTP estimates are reliable. The average IRTP values over different
time delays were incorporated in the NTfP harvesting model. Results show that people with higher
IRTP extract more NTfP. Thus the paper shows, with rigorous analysis, that a higher rate of time
preference of individuals causes depletion of forest resources.
The paper brings out a number of policy implications. The most signifcant is the importance
of poverty reduction in local communities for effective forest conservation. As discussed earlier,
NTfP extraction may become a serious problem in managing protected forests. It is more diffcult
to fnd policy tools for managing NTfP harvesting when poor people live near nature reserves and
depend on forest resources for livelihood. Under such circumstances, the challenge is to fnd policy
interventions that address both poverty reduction and nature conversation at the same time. Poor
individuals have higher discount rates; they do not prefer to wait for long-term benefts of forest
conservation. Increasing incomes and enhancing socioeconomic endowments in the short term,
preferably through appropriate rural development activities, reduces the direct need to harvest NTfP.
In the long run, poverty reduction will have its indirect impact on forest conservation through
reduction of IRTP. Therefore, a long-term strategy for nature reserve protection (or conservation
management) would require poverty reduction, among other measures.
APPfh0IX 1
SAHPLf 0ISIkI8uII0h

foresT reserVe
GramaseVaka
diVision
number of
families
number of families usinG
foresT resources
number of selecTed
families
Delwala Delwala 1315 500 47
Walankanda Rambuka 483 187 18
Thanabela 261 220 21
Runakanda Diganna 216 150 14
Thiniyawala 634 75 7
Batagodawila 275 50 5
Kalukandawa 46 40 4
Dellawa Pahalamillawa 292 25 2
Ihalamillawa 140 35 3
Happitiya 226 95 9
Miyanawatura 105 50 5
Diyadawa Kotapola-North 540 100 9
Deniyaya-West 325 150 14
Pallegama-South 538 72 7
Pussawela 268 100 9
Deniyaya 570 40 4
Beliattakumbura 318 20 2
Total 1909 180
18 August 2007
section v
emPiricAl illustrAtion
APPfh0IX 2
0AIA uSf0 I0 0fvfL0P HAkkfI Ihf0kP0kAII0h Ih0fX

GramaseVaka
diVision
disTance
To nearesT
ToWn (km)
WalkinG
disTance
To GeT a
bus (km)
frequency
of bus
TransPorT
(VisiT/day)
oTher faciliTies
co-
oPeraTiVe
shoP

school
sub-PosT
office
medical
cenTer
rural
bank
0eIwaIa fk
Delwala 12 2 12 A A (13) A A A
Uda-delwala 14 2 7 A A (10) A NA NA
waIankanda fk
Rambukagama 13 0.75 20 A NA A NA NA
atantenna 12.8 0.75 20 NA NA NA NA NA
Kajugaswatta 12.5 0.75 20 NA A (12) NA NA NA
Kopikella 13 1.50 20 NA NA NA NA NA
Pandeniya 12.3 0.75 20 NA A (5) NA NA NA
Thanabela 25 3.5 20 NA A NA NA NA
Thebugala 25 1 20 NA NA NA NA NA
kunakanda fk
Diganna 11 3.5 25 NA A (5) NA NA NA
Thiniyawala 8 2 8 A A (13) A A NA
Batagodawila 12 1.6 6 A A (11) NA NA NA
Kalukandawa 23 6.4 6 NA NA NA NA NA
0eIIawa fk
Ihalamillawa 8 8 0 NA NA NA NA NA
Pahalamillawa 6 6 0 A A (8) A NA NA
Happitiya 7 0.5 14 NA NA NA NA NA
Miyanawatyra 16 3 14 NA NA NA NA NA
0!yadawa fk
Kotapola North 3 0.4 100 A A (13) NA NA NA
Deniyaya West 1 1 100 NA NA NA NA NA
Pallegama South 4 0.8 24 A NA NA NA NA
Pussawela 8 0.5 24 NA A (10) NA NA NA
Deniyaya 0.25 0.25 100 A A (12) A A A
Beliattakumbura 9 1.6 24 NA NA A NA NA
fR means forest reserve; NA means not available; A means available.
Note Numbers within parenthesis indicate the highest grade available in the school.
APPfh0IX 3
IfSIS f0k HuLIIf0LIhfAkIIY
Table a3.1
correlaTion maTrix of Variables of Time Preference model
X1 -3.66E-02
X2 -0.11493 -5.49E-02
X3 -9.12E-02 -5.34E-02 -0.11374
X4 -1.46E-02 -5.07E-02 -0.20386 -2.33E-02
X5 -0.14932 -4.95E-02 -5.82E-02 -2.13E-02 0.10388
Y1 X1 X2 X3 X4
Table a3.2
correlaTion maTrix of Variables of nTfP model
Y1 -9.93E-02
X2 -1.52E-02 -0.11493
X6 -1.62E-02 -5.98E-02 -6.12E-02
X1 -0.1728 -6.01E-02 -9.35E-02 -0.16546
X9 -3.11E-02 -0.15973 -0.13932 -0.19058 0.19222
X10 -0.11236 -1.09E-03 -4.46E-03 -7.51E-02 8.85E-02 0.1088
X11 -4.38E-02 -4.04E-02 -3.66E-02 -0.10909 3.71E-02 0.10547 -1.29E-02
X12 -0.10017 -0.11535 -2.16E-02 -0.15806 0.16612 2.05E-02 -6.12E-02 -0.18794
Y2 Y1 X2 X6 X1 X9 X10 X11
20 August 2007
section v
emPiricAl illustrAtion
APPfh0IX 4
IfSI f0k SIHuLIAhfIIY Ah0 f0hIfHP0kAhf0uS fk0SS f0kkfLAII0h
aPPendix Table 4.1
hausman TesT resulTs
Average IRTP 86728.00000 8131.00000 10.67 0.000
Residual of time preference
model
8021.30000 787.50000 10.19 0.000
Education level 951.97000 149.40000 6.37 0.000
Agricultural income 0.01888 0.00225 8.40 0.000
Other income 0.03547 0.00281 12.63 0.000
Number of family members 346.77000 86.45000 4.01 0.000
Distance to forest 716.55000 81.39000 8.80 0.000
Malefemale ratio 239.56000 119.10000 2.01 0.044
Index to open market 49.84800 8.34400 5.97 0.000
Constant 31484.00000 2585.00000 12.18 0.000
IRTP means individual rate of time preference.
aPPendix Table 4.2
residual correlaTion maTrix
f1 1
f2 3.78E-02 1
f1 f2
Note E1 is the residual of time preference model; E2 is the
residual of nontimber forest products model.
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28
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Emma Xiaoqin Fan, May 2004
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Implications for 2004-2005
Cyn-Young Park, June 2004
No. 29 Accelerating Agriculture and Rural Development for
Inclusive Growth: Policy Implications for
Developing Asia
Richard Bolt, July 2004
No. 30 Living with Higher Interest Rates: Is Asia Ready?
Cyn-Young Park, August 2004
No. 31 Reserve Accumulation, Sterilization, and Policy
Dilemma
Akiko Terada-Hagiwara, October 2004
No. 32 The Primacy of Reforms in the Emergence of
Peoples Republic of China and India
Ifzal Ali and Emma Xiaoqin Fan, November
2004
No. 33 Population Health and Foreign Direct Investment:
Does Poor Health Signal Poor Government
Effectiveness?
Ajay Tandon, January 2005
No. 34 Financing Infrastructure Development: Asian
Developing Countries Need to Tap Bond Markets
More Rigorously
Yun-Hwan Kim, February 2005
No. 35 Attaining Millennium Development Goals in
Health: Isnt Economic Growth Enough?
Ajay Tandon, March 2005
No. 36 Instilling Credit Culture in State-owned Banks
Experience from Lao PDR
Robert Boumphrey, Paul Dickie, and Samiuela
Tukuafu, April 2005
No. 37 Coping with Global Imbalances and Asian
Currencies
Cyn-Young Park, May 2005
No. 38 Asias Long-term Growth and Integration:
Reaching beyond Trade Policy Barriers
Douglas H. Brooks, David Roland-Holst, and Fan
Zhai, September 2005
No. 39 Competition Policy and Development
Douglas H. Brooks, October 2005
No. 40 Highlighting Poverty as Vulnerability: The 2005
Earthquake in Pakistan
Rana Hasan and Ajay Tandon, October 2005
No. 41 Conceptualizing and Measuring Poverty as
Vulnerability: Does It Make a Difference?
Ajay Tandon and Rana Hasan, October 2005
No. 42 Potential Economic Impact of an Avian Flu
Pandemic on Asia
Erik Bloom, Vincent de Wit, and Mary Jane
Carangal-San Jose, November 2005
ERD POLICY BRIEF SERIES (PBS)
(Published in-house; Available through ADB Department of External Relations; Free of charge)
29
No. 43 Creating Better and More Jobs in Indonesia: A
Blueprint for Policy Action
Guntur Sugiyarto, December 2005
No. 44 The Challenge of Job Creation in Asia
Jesus Felipe and Rana Hasan, April 2006
No. 45 International Payments Imbalances
Jesus Felipe, Frank Harrigan, and Aashish
Mehta, April 2006
No. 46 Improving Primary Enrollment Rates among the
Poor
Ajay Tandon, August 2006
No. 47 Inclusiveness of Economic Growth in the Peoples
Republic of China: What Do Population Health
Outcomes Tell Us?
Ajay Tandon and Juzhong Zhuang, January
2007
No. 48 Pro-Poor to Inclusive Growth: Asian Prescriptions
Ifzal Ali, May 2007
No. 49 Technology and Development in Asia
Frank Harrigan, June 2007
ERD TECHNICAL NOTE SERIES (TNS)
No. 1 Contingency Calculations for Environmental
Impacts with Unknown Monetary Values
David Dole, February 2002
No. 2 Integrating Risk into ADBs Economic Analysis
of Projects
Nigel Rayner, Anneli Lagman-Martin,
and Keith Ward, June 2002
No. 3 Measuring Willingness to Pay for Electricity
Peter Choynowski, July 2002
No. 4 Economic Issues in the Design and Analysis of a
Wastewater Treatment Project
David Dole, July 2002
No. 5 An Analysis and Case Study of the Role of
Environmental Economics at the Asian
Development Bank
David Dole and Piya Abeygunawardena,
September 2002
No. 6 Economic Analysis of Health Projects: A Case Study
in Cambodia
Erik Bloom and Peter Choynowski, May 2003
No. 7 Strengthening the Economic Analysis of Natural
Resource Management Projects
Keith Ward, September 2003
No. 8 Testing Savings Product Innovations Using an
Experimental Methodology
Nava Ashraf, Dean S. Karlan, and Wesley Yin,
November 2003
No. 9 Setting User Charges for Public Services: Policies
and Practice at the Asian Development Bank
David Dole, December 2003
No. 10 Beyond Cost Recovery: Setting User Charges for
Financial, Economic, and Social Goals
David Dole and Ian Bartlett, January 2004
No. 11 Shadow Exchange Rates for Project Economic
Analysis: Toward Improving Practice at the Asian
Development Bank
Anneli Lagman-Martin, February 2004
No. 12 Improving the Relevance and Feasibility of
Agriculture and Rural Development Operational
Designs: How Economic Analyses Can Help
Richard Bolt, September 2005
No. 13 Assessing the Use of Project Distribution and
Poverty Impact Analyses at the Asian Development
Bank
Franklin D. De Guzman, October 2005
No. 14 Assessing Aid for a Sector Development Plan:
Economic Analysis of a Sector Loan
David Dole, November 2005
No. 15 Debt Management Analysis of Nepals Public Debt
Sungsup Ra, Changyong Rhee, and Joon-Ho
Hahm, December 2005
No. 16 Evaluating Microfinance Program Innovation with
Randomized Control Trials: An Example from
Group Versus Individual Lending
Xavier Gin, Tomoko Harigaya,Dean Karlan, and
Binh T. Nguyen, March 2006
No. 17 Setting User Charges for Urban Water Supply: A
Case Study of the Metropolitan Cebu Water
District in the Philippines
David Dole and Edna Balucan, June 2006
No. 18 Forecasting Inflation and GDP Growth: Automatic
Leading Indicator (ALI) Method versus Macro
Econometric Structural Models (MESMs)
Marie Anne Cagas, Geoffrey Ducanes, Nedelyn
Magtibay-Ramos, Duo Qin and Pilipinas Quising,
July 2006
No. 19 Willingness-to-Pay and Design of Water Supply
and Sanitation Projects: A Case Study
Herath Gunatilake, Jui-Chen Yang, Subhrendu
Pattanayak, and Caroline van den Berg,
December 2006
No. 20 Tourism for Pro-Poor and Sutainable Growth:
Economic Analysis of ADB Tourism Projects
Tun Lin and Franklin D. De Guzman,
January 2007
No. 21 Critical Issues of Fiscal Decentralization
Norio Usui, February 2007
No. 22 Pro-Poor Growth: Concepts and Measures
Hyun H. Son, June 2007
30
ERD OCCASIONAL STATISTICAL PAPER SERIES (OSP)
No. 1 Developing an Interregional InputOutput Table
for Cross-border Economies: An Application to Lao
Peoples Democratic Republic and Thailand
Benson Sim, Francisco Secretario, and Eric Suan,
July 2007
SERIALS
(Available commercially through ADB Office of External Relations)
1. Asian Development Outlook (ADO; annual)
$36.00 (paperback)
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$35.00 (paperback)
3. Asian Development Review (ADR; semiannual)
$5.00 per issue; $10.00 per year (2 issues)
1. Improving Domestic Resource Mobilization Through
Financial Development: Overview September 1985
Financial Development: Bangladesh July 1986
Financial Development: Sri Lanka April 1987
Financial Development: India December 1987
5. Financing Public Sector Development Expenditure
in Selected Countries: Overview January 1988
6. Study of Selected Industries: A Brief Report
April 1988
in Selected Countries: Bangladesh June 1988
in Selected Countries: India June 1988
in Selected Countries: Indonesia June 1988
in Selected Countries: Nepal June 1988
in Selected Countries: Pakistan June 1988
in Selected Countries: Philippines June 1988
in Selected Countries: Thailand June 1988
14. Towards Regional Cooperation in South Asia:
ADB/EWC Symposium on Regional Cooperation
in South Asia February 1988
15. Evaluating Rice Market Intervention Policies:
Some Asian Examples April 1988
Financial Development: Nepal November 1988
17. Foreign Trade Barriers and Export Growth September
1988
18. The Role of Small and Medium-Scale Industries in the
Industrial Development of the Philippines April 1989
19. The Role of Small and Medium-Scale Manufacturing
Industries in Industrial Development: The Experience of
Selected Asian Countries January 1990
20. National Accounts of Vanuatu, 1983-1987 January
1990
21. National Accounts of Western Samoa, 1984-1986
February 1990
22. Human Resource Policy and Economic Development:
Selected Country Studies July 1990
23. Export Finance: Some Asian Examples September 1990
24. National Accounts of the Cook Islands, 1982-1986
September 1990
25. Framework for the Economic and Financial Appraisal of
Urban Development Sector Projects January 1994
26. Framework and Criteria for the Appraisal and
Socioeconomic Justification of Education Projects
January 1994
27. Investing in Asia 1997 (Co-published with OECD)
28. The Future of Asia in the World Economy 1998 (Co-
published with OECD)
29. Financial Liberalisation in Asia: Analysis and Prospects
1999 (Co-published with OECD)
30. Sustainable Recovery in Asia: Mobilizing Resources for
Development 2000 (Co-published with OECD)
31. Technology and Poverty Reduction in Asia and the Pacific
2001 (Co-published with OECD)
32. Asia and Europe 2002 (Co-published with OECD)
33. Economic Analysis: Retrospective 2003
34. Economic Analysis: Retrospective: 2003 Update 2004
35. Development Indicators Reference Manual: Concepts and
Definitions 2004
36. Investment Climate and Productivity Studies
Philippines: Moving Toward a Better Investment Climate
2005
The Road to Recovery: Improving the Investment Climate
in Indonesia 2005
Sri Lanka: Improving the Rural and Urban Investment
Climate 2005
Lao PDR Private Sector and Investment Climate
Assessment: Reducing Investment Climate Constraints
to Higher Growth 2006
SPECIAL STUDIES, COMPLIMENTARY
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OLD MONOGRAPH SERIES
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EDRC REPORT SERIES (ER)
No. 1 ASEAN and the Asian Development Bank
Seiji Naya, April 1982
No. 2 Development Issues for the Developing East
and Southeast Asian Countries
and International Cooperation
Seiji Naya and Graham Abbott, April 1982
No. 3 Aid, Savings, and Growth in the Asian Region
J. Malcolm Dowling and Ulrich Hiemenz,
April 1982
No. 4 Development-oriented Foreign Investment
and the Role of ADB
Kiyoshi Kojima, April 1982
No. 5 The Multilateral Development Banks
and the International Economys Missing
Public Sector
John Lewis, June 1982
No. 6 Notes on External Debt of DMCs
Evelyn Go, July 1982
No. 7 Grant Element in Bank Loans
Dal Hyun Kim, July 1982
No. 8 Shadow Exchange Rates and Standard
Conversion Factors in Project Evaluation
Peter Warr, September 1982
No. 9 Small and Medium-Scale Manufacturing
Establishments in ASEAN Countries:
Perspectives and Policy Issues
Mathias Bruch and Ulrich Hiemenz, January
1983
No. 10 A Note on the Third Ministerial Meeting of GATT
Jungsoo Lee, January 1983
No. 11 Macroeconomic Forecasts for the Republic
of China, Hong Kong, and Republic of Korea
J.M. Dowling, January 1983
No. 12 ASEAN: Economic Situation and Prospects
Seiji Naya, March 1983
No. 13 The Future Prospects for the Developing
Countries of Asia
No. 14 Energy and Structural Change in the Asia-
Pacific Region, Summary of the Thirteenth
Pacific Trade and Development Conference
No. 15 A Survey of Empirical Studies on Demand
for Electricity with Special Emphasis on Price
Elasticity of Demand
Wisarn Pupphavesa, June 1983
No. 16 Determinants of Paddy Production in Indonesia:
1972-1981A Simultaneous Equation Model
Approach
T.K. Jayaraman, June 1983
No. 17 The Philippine Economy: Economic
Forecasts for 1983 and 1984
J.M. Dowling, E. Go, and C.N. Castillo, June
1983
No. 18 Economic Forecast for Indonesia
J.M. Dowling, H.Y. Kim, Y.K. Wang,
and C.N. Castillo, June 1983
No. 19 Relative External Debt Situation of Asian
Developing Countries: An Application
of Ranking Method
Jungsoo Lee, June 1983
No. 20 New Evidence on Yields, Fertilizer Application,
and Prices in Asian Rice Production
William James and Teresita Ramirez, July 1983
No. 21 Inflationary Effects of Exchange Rate
Changes in Nine Asian LDCs
Pradumna B. Rana and J. Malcolm Dowling, Jr.,
December 1983
No. 22 Effects of External Shocks on the Balance
of Payments, Policy Responses, and Debt
Problems of Asian Developing Countries
Seiji Naya, December 1983
No. 23 Changing Trade Patterns and Policy Issues:
The Prospects for East and Southeast Asian
Seiji Naya and Ulrich Hiemenz, February 1984
No. 24 Small-Scale Industries in Asian Economic
Development: Problems and Prospects
Seiji Naya, February 1984
No. 25 A Study on the External Debt Indicators
Applying Logit Analysis
Jungsoo Lee and Clarita Barretto, February 1984
No. 26 Alternatives to Institutional Credit Programs
in the Agricultural Sector of Low-Income
Countries
Jennifer Sour, March 1984
No. 27 Economic Scene in Asia and Its Special Features
Kedar N. Kohli, November 1984
No. 28 The Effect of Terms of Trade Changes on the
Balance of Payments and Real National
Income of Asian Developing Countries
Jungsoo Lee and Lutgarda Labios, January 1985
No. 29 Cause and Effect in the World Sugar Market:
Some Empirical Findings 1951-1982
Yoshihiro Iwasaki, February 1985
No. 30 Sources of Balance of Payments Problem
in the 1970s: The Asian Experience
Pradumna Rana, February 1985
No. 31 Indias Manufactured Exports: An Analysis
of Supply Sectors
Ifzal Ali, February 1985
No. 32 Meeting Basic Human Needs in Asian
Jungsoo Lee and Emma Banaria, March 1985
No. 33 The Impact of Foreign Capital Inflow
on Investment and Economic Growth
in Developing Asia
Evelyn Go, May 1985
No. 34 The Climate for Energy Development
in the Pacific and Asian Region:
Priorities and Perspectives
V.V. Desai, April 1986
No. 35 Impact of Appreciation of the Yen on
Developing Member Countries of the Bank
Jungsoo Lee, Pradumna Rana, and Ifzal Ali,
May 1986
No. 36 Smuggling and Domestic Economic Policies
in Developing Countries
A.H.M.N. Chowdhury, October 1986
No. 37 Public Investment Criteria: Economic Internal
Rate of Return and Equalizing Discount Rate
Ifzal Ali, November 1986
No. 38 Review of the Theory of Neoclassical Political
Economy: An Application to Trade Policies
M.G. Quibria, December 1986
No. 39 Factors Influencing the Choice of Location:
Local and Foreign Firms in the Philippines
E.M. Pernia and A.N. Herrin, February 1987
No. 40 A Demographic Perspective on Developing
Asia and Its Relevance to the Bank
E.M. Pernia, May 1987
32
No. 1 International Reserves:
Factors Determining Needs and Adequacy
Evelyn Go, May 1981
No. 2 Domestic Savings in Selected Developing
Asian Countries
Basil Moore, assisted by A.H.M. Nuruddin
Chowdhury, September 1981
No. 3 Changes in Consumption, Imports and Exports
of Oil Since 1973: A Preliminary Survey of
the Developing Member Countries
of the Asian Development Bank
Dal Hyun Kim and Graham Abbott, September
1981
No. 4 By-Passed Areas, Regional Inequalities,
and Development Policies in Selected
Southeast Asian Countries
William James, October 1981
No. 5 Asian Agriculture and Economic Development
William James, March 1982
No. 6 Inflation in Developing Member Countries:
An Analysis of Recent Trends
A.H.M. Nuruddin Chowdhury and J. Malcolm
Dowling, March 1982
No. 7 Industrial Growth and Employment in
Developing Asian Countries: Issues and
ECONOMIC STAFF PAPERS (ES)
Perspectives for the Coming Decade
Ulrich Hiemenz, March 1982
No. 8 Petrodollar Recycling 1973-1980.
Part 1: Regional Adjustments and
the World Economy
Burnham Campbell, April 1982
No. 9 Developing Asia: The Importance
of Domestic Policies
Economics Office Staff under the direction of Seiji
Naya, May 1982
No. 10 Financial Development and Household
Savings: Issues in Domestic Resource
Mobilization in Asian Developing Countries
Wan-Soon Kim, July 1982
No. 11 Industrial Development: Role of Specialized
Financial Institutions
Kedar N. Kohli, August 1982
No. 12 Petrodollar Recycling 1973-1980.
Part II: Debt Problems and an Evaluation
of Suggested Remedies
Burnham Campbell, September 1982
No. 13 Credit Rationing, Rural Savings, and Financial
Policy in Developing Countries
William James, September 1982
No. 41 Emerging Issues in Asia and Social Cost
Benefit Analysis
I. Ali, September 1988
No. 42 Shifting Revealed Comparative Advantage:
Experiences of Asian and Pacific Developing
Countries
P.B. Rana, November 1988
No. 43 Agricultural Price Policy in Asia:
Issues and Areas of Reforms
I. Ali, November 1988
No. 44 Service Trade and Asian Developing Economies
M.G. Quibria, October 1989
No. 45 A Review of the Economic Analysis of Power
Projects in Asia and Identification of Areas
of Improvement
No. 46 Growth Perspective and Challenges for Asia:
Areas for Policy Review and Research
No. 47 An Approach to Estimating the Poverty
Alleviation Impact of an Agricultural Project
I. Ali, January 1990
No. 48 Economic Growth Performance of Indonesia,
the Philippines, and Thailand:
The Human Resource Dimension
E.M. Pernia, January 1990
No. 49 Foreign Exchange and Fiscal Impact of a Project:
A Methodological Framework for Estimation
I. Ali, February 1990
No. 50 Public Investment Criteria: Financial
and Economic Internal Rates of Return
I. Ali, April 1990
No. 51 Evaluation of Water Supply Projects:
An Economic Framework
Arlene M. Tadle, June 1990
No. 52 Interrelationship Between Shadow Prices, Project
Investment, and Policy Reforms:
An Analytical Framework
No. 53 Issues in Assessing the Impact of Project
and Sector Adjustment Lending
I. Ali, December 1990
No. 54 Some Aspects of Urbanization
and the Environment in Southeast Asia
Ernesto M. Pernia, January 1991
No. 55 Financial Sector and Economic
Development: A Survey
Jungsoo Lee, September 1991
No. 56 A Framework for Justifying Bank-Assisted
Education Projects in Asia: A Review
of the Socioeconomic Analysis
and Identification of Areas of Improvement
Etienne Van De Walle, February 1992
No. 57 Medium-term Growth-Stabilization
Relationship in Asian Developing Countries
and Some Policy Considerations
No. 58 Urbanization, Population Distribution,
and Economic Development in Asia
Ernesto M. Pernia, February 1993
No. 59 The Need for Fiscal Consolidation in Nepal:
The Results of a Simulation
Filippo di Mauro and Ronald Antonio Butiong,
July 1993
No. 60 A Computable General Equilibrium Model
of Nepal
Timothy Buehrer and Filippo di Mauro, October
1993
No. 61 The Role of Government in Export Expansion
in the Republic of Korea: A Revisit
No. 62 Rural Reforms, Structural Change,
and Agricultural Growth in
the Peoples Republic of China
Bo Lin, August 1994
No. 63 Incentives and Regulation for Pollution Abatement
with an Application to Waste Water Treatment
Sudipto Mundle, U. Shankar, and Shekhar
Mehta, October 1995
No. 64 Saving Transitions in Southeast Asia
Frank Harrigan, February 1996
No. 65 Total Factor Productivity Growth in East Asia:
A Critical Survey
Jesus Felipe, September 1997
No. 66 Foreign Direct Investment in Pakistan:
Policy Issues and Operational Implications
Ashfaque H. Khan and Yun-Hwan Kim, July
1999
No. 67 Fiscal Policy, Income Distribution and Growth
Sailesh K. Jha, November 1999
33
No. 14 Small and Medium-Scale Manufacturing
Establishments in ASEAN Countries:
Perspectives and Policy Issues
Mathias Bruch and Ulrich Hiemenz, March 1983
No. 15 Income Distribution and Economic
Growth in Developing Asian Countries
J. Malcolm Dowling and David Soo, March 1983
No. 16 Long-Run Debt-Servicing Capacity of
Asian Developing Countries: An Application
of Critical Interest Rate Approach
Jungsoo Lee, June 1983
No. 17 External Shocks, Energy Policy,
and Macroeconomic Performance of Asian
Developing Countries: A Policy Analysis
William James, July 1983
No. 18 The Impact of the Current Exchange Rate
System on Trade and Inflation of Selected
Developing Member Countries
Pradumna Rana, September 1983
No. 19 Asian Agriculture in Transition: Key Policy Issues
William James, September 1983
No. 20 The Transition to an Industrial Economy
in Monsoon Asia
Harry T. Oshima, October 1983
No. 21 The Significance of Off-Farm Employment
and Incomes in Post-War East Asian Growth
Harry T. Oshima, January 1984
No. 22 Income Distribution and Poverty in Selected
Asian Countries
John Malcolm Dowling, Jr., November 1984
No. 23 ASEAN Economies and ASEAN Economic
Cooperation
Narongchai Akrasanee, November 1984
No. 24 Economic Analysis of Power Projects
Nitin Desai, January 1985
No. 25 Exports and Economic Growth in the Asian Region
Pradumna Rana, February 1985
No. 26 Patterns of External Financing of DMCs
E. Go, May 1985
No. 27 Industrial Technology Development
the Republic of Korea
S.Y. Lo, July 1985
No. 28 Risk Analysis and Project Selection:
A Review of Practical Issues
J.K. Johnson, August 1985
No. 29 Rice in Indonesia: Price Policy and Comparative
Advantage
I. Ali, January 1986
No. 30 Effects of Foreign Capital Inflows
on Developing Countries of Asia
Jungsoo Lee, Pradumna B. Rana, and Yoshihiro
Iwasaki, April 1986
No. 31 Economic Analysis of the Environmental
Impacts of Development Projects
John A. Dixon et al., EAPI, East-West Center,
August 1986
No. 32 Science and Technology for Development:
Role of the Bank
Kedar N. Kohli and Ifzal Ali, November 1986
No. 33 Satellite Remote Sensing in the Asian
and Pacific Region
Mohan Sundara Rajan, December 1986
No. 34 Changes in the Export Patterns of Asian and
Pacific Developing Countries: An Empirical
Overview
Pradumna B. Rana, January 1987
No. 35 Agricultural Price Policy in Nepal
Gerald C. Nelson, March 1987
No. 36 Implications of Falling Primary Commodity
Prices for Agricultural Strategy in the Philippines
Ifzal Ali, September 1987
No. 37 Determining Irrigation Charges: A Framework
Prabhakar B. Ghate, October 1987
No. 38 The Role of Fertilizer Subsidies in Agricultural
Production: A Review of Select Issues
M.G. Quibria, October 1987
No. 39 Domestic Adjustment to External Shocks
in Developing Asia
Jungsoo Lee, October 1987
No. 40 Improving Domestic Resource Mobilization
through Financial Development: Indonesia
Philip Erquiaga, November 1987
No. 41 Recent Trends and Issues on Foreign Direct
Investment in Asian and Pacific Developing
Countries
P.B. Rana, March 1988
No. 42 Manufactured Exports from the Philippines:
A Sector Profile and an Agenda for Reform
I. Ali, September 1988
No. 43 A Framework for Evaluating the Economic
Benefits of Power Projects
I. Ali, August 1989
No. 44 Promotion of Manufactured Exports in Pakistan
Jungsoo Lee and Yoshihiro Iwasaki, September
1989
No. 45 Education and Labor Markets in Indonesia:
A Sector Survey
Ernesto M. Pernia and David N. Wilson,
September 1989
No. 46 Industrial Technology Capabilities
and Policies in Selected ADCs
Hiroshi Kakazu, June 1990
No. 47 Designing Strategies and Policies
for Managing Structural Change in Asia
No. 48 The Completion of the Single European Community
Market in 1992: A Tentative Assessment of its
Impact on Asian Developing Countries
J.P. Verbiest and Min Tang, June 1991
No. 49 Economic Analysis of Investment in Power Systems
No. 50 External Finance and the Role of Multilateral
Financial Institutions in South Asia:
Changing Patterns, Prospects, and Challenges
Jungsoo Lee, November 1991
No. 51 The Gender and Poverty Nexus: Issues and
Policies
M.G. Quibria, November 1993
No. 52 The Role of the State in Economic Development:
Theory, the East Asian Experience,
and the Malaysian Case
Jason Brown, December 1993
No. 53 The Economic Benefits of Potable Water Supply
Projects to Households in Developing Countries
Dale Whittington and Venkateswarlu Swarna,
January 1994
No. 54 Growth Triangles: Conceptual Issues
and Operational Problems
Min Tang and Myo Thant, February 1994
No. 55 The Emerging Global Trading Environment
and Developing Asia
Arvind Panagariya, M.G. Quibria, and Narhari
Rao, July 1996
No. 56 Aspects of Urban Water and Sanitation in
the Context of Rapid Urbanization in
Developing Asia
Ernesto M. Pernia and Stella LF. Alabastro,
September 1997
No. 57 Challenges for Asias Trade and Environment
Douglas H. Brooks, January 1998
No. 58 Economic Analysis of Health Sector Projects-
A Review of Issues, Methods, and Approaches
Ramesh Adhikari, Paul Gertler, and Anneli
Lagman, March 1999
No. 59 The Asian Crisis: An Alternate View
Rajiv Kumar and Bibek Debroy, July 1999
No. 60 Social Consequences of the Financial Crisis in
Asia
James C. Knowles, Ernesto M. Pernia, and Mary
Racelis, November 1999
34
No. 1 Estimates of the Total External Debt of
the Developing Member Countries of ADB:
1981-1983
I.P. David, September 1984
No. 2 Multivariate Statistical and Graphical
Classification Techniques Applied
to the Problem of Grouping Countries
I.P. David and D.S. Maligalig, March 1985
No. 3 Gross National Product (GNP) Measurement
Issues in South Pacific Developing Member
Countries of ADB
S.G. Tiwari, September 1985
No. 4 Estimates of Comparable Savings in Selected
DMCs
Hananto Sigit, December 1985
No. 5 Keeping Sample Survey Design
and Analysis Simple
I.P. David, December 1985
No. 6 External Debt Situation in Asian
I.P. David and Jungsoo Lee, March 1986
No. 7 Study of GNP Measurement Issues in the
South Pacific Developing Member Countries.
Part I: Existing National Accounts
of SPDMCsAnalysis of Methodology
and Application of SNA Concepts
P. Hodgkinson, October 1986
STATISTICAL REPORT SERIES (SR)
No. 8 Study of GNP Measurement Issues in the South
Pacific Developing Member Countries.
Part II: Factors Affecting Intercountry
Comparability of Per Capita GNP
P. Hodgkinson, October 1986
No. 9 Survey of the External Debt Situation
in Asian Developing Countries, 1985
Jungsoo Lee and I.P. David, April 1987
No. 10 A Survey of the External Debt Situation
in Asian Developing Countries, 1986
Jungsoo Lee and I.P. David, April 1988
No. 11 Changing Pattern of Financial Flows to Asian
and Pacific Developing Countries
Jungsoo Lee and I.P. David, March 1989
No. 12 The State of Agricultural Statistics in
Southeast Asia
I.P. David, March 1989
in Asian and Pacific Developing Countries:
1987-1988
Jungsoo Lee and I.P. David, July 1989
No. 14 A Survey of the External Debt Situation in
Asian and Pacific Developing Countries: 1988-1989
Jungsoo Lee, May 1990
in Asian and Pacific Developing Countries: 1989-
1992
No. 1 Poverty in the Peoples Republic of China:
Recent Developments and Scope
for Bank Assistance
K.H. Moinuddin, November 1992
No. 2 The Eastern Islands of Indonesia: An Overview
of Development Needs and Potential
Brien K. Parkinson, January 1993
No. 3 Rural Institutional Finance in Bangladesh
and Nepal: Review and Agenda for Reforms
A.H.M.N. Chowdhury and Marcelia C. Garcia,
November 1993
No. 4 Fiscal Deficits and Current Account Imbalances
of the South Pacific Countries:
A Case Study of Vanuatu
T.K. Jayaraman, December 1993
No. 5 Reforms in the Transitional Economies of Asia
Pradumna B. Rana, December 1993
No. 6 Environmental Challenges in the Peoples Republic
of China and Scope for Bank Assistance
Elisabetta Capannelli and Omkar L. Shrestha,
December 1993
No. 7 Sustainable Development Environment
and Poverty Nexus
K.F. Jalal, December 1993
No. 8 Intermediate Services and Economic
Development: The Malaysian Example
Sutanu Behuria and Rahul Khullar, May 1994
No. 9 Interest Rate Deregulation: A Brief Survey
of the Policy Issues and the Asian Experience
Carlos J. Glower, July 1994
No. 10 Some Aspects of Land Administration
in Indonesia: Implications for Bank Operations
Sutanu Behuria, July 1994
No. 11 Demographic and Socioeconomic Determinants
of Contraceptive Use among Urban Women in
the Melanesian Countries in the South Pacific:
A Case Study of Port Vila Town in Vanuatu
T.K. Jayaraman, February 1995
No. 12 Managing Development through
Institution Building
Hilton L. Root, October 1995
No. 13 Growth, Structural Change, and Optimal
Poverty Interventions
Shiladitya Chatterjee, November 1995
No. 14 Private Investment and Macroeconomic
Environment in the South Pacific Island
Countries: A Cross-Country Analysis
T.K. Jayaraman, October 1996
No. 15 The Rural-Urban Transition in Viet Nam:
Some Selected Issues
Sudipto Mundle and Brian Van Arkadie, October
1997
No. 16 A New Approach to Setting the Future
Transport Agenda
Roger Allport, Geoff Key, and Charles Melhuish,
June 1998
No. 17 Adjustment and Distribution:
The Indian Experience
Sudipto Mundle and V.B. Tulasidhar, June 1998
No. 18 Tax Reforms in Viet Nam: A Selective Analysis
Sudipto Mundle, December 1998
No. 19 Surges and Volatility of Private Capital Flows to
Asian Developing Countries: Implications
for Multilateral Development Banks
Pradumna B. Rana, December 1998
No. 20 The Millennium Round and the Asian Economies:
An Introduction
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About the Paper
H. M. Gunatilake, W.A.R. Wickramasinghe, and P. Abeygunawardena estimate
individuals discount rate using a stated preference survey among peripheral
villagers of a forest reserve in Sri Lanka. Results show that poverty is an
important determinant of discount rates, and higher discount rates cause depletion
of forest resources. The paper asserts that a long-term strategy for nature reserve
protection would require poverty reduction in the peripheral communities,
among other measures.
August 2007
ERD
Working Paper
SERI ES
No.
1
and P. Abeygunawardena
of Sinharaja Forest
in Sri Lanka
of Sinharaja Forest
in Sri Lanka

00
< 0 0 81 3 0 75 >

Time Preference and Natural Resource Use by Local Communities: The Case of Sinharaja Forest in Sri Lanka

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