Chapter No.

APPLICATIONS

Durin8 rhls work lt ls obsoed thar since th6 Babytontan eE

flt

recenty a

nomber

ol

pr.diction crltsrta, mathehatic.t

.s we as obsewational. were

developed ro detemln whon the new tunardescnl woutd be flrsr seen tor a gtven
rocataon. as tho

fist

new month in
sagnirrca.t

appea.ance ot new tunar crescent marks tho beginning ot a obseryarionat tunar catendaE thele crireria and modets are
purposes_ whther

fo, calendaicat

an actuat obsrya ohat

tuna,

carendar, like the tstamlc Lunar catendar, carendar of not rhe36 c.trerta provtd6s

lh.se crireria tor arangtng its a uidance for both teslhg an evtdenco ot
izes

ui

crescenl si8lting by common peopte and tracing down ihe dares ot a catendar jr hErory where app.opriate dates are not we recoded. Ttus the main uti ty oi the prediction c terta tor the eartiest visibiny of new crescent ts to regutate tho obsefr atlon.l lunar catendaf .

Although ftrst order approximations, rike Anrhmetc LunarCatenda, thar are oased on lh6concept of LeapyeaFand rh6 averag6 mooon or rhe Moon fave been in use, Nluslims hEve been to owing dctuat sihtng o, crescenls ar teast tor the monrhs of fas n8 (Ramazan) and pitgnmage (z hajjah), the acruat moion oi the Moon varies grea y due to vartous tactoB whtch causo rne obseryarionat catendar lo be ditfered froh the arithmelc c6t6trdar.rh6 Catendars if based on a prediction c lerlon llko thar otya op or ihe one devoloped In this work are rhe cto56t to rhe ob*patlonat catendai In this chapter, wecohp6rethese carendaBwith th a.tual obseryatronat catend6r in pracrice In paktstan tor th6 years 2ooo ro 2OOz, ft ts found rhst on avorage 93.7% obseryadons ,16 ac@rdtng yalop,s

to rho

o_v6tue

t72

criterion or our s-value (or Q&K) cnterion. The disagr.ededt ls lhe resull ot eilher

the bad weather

du.lo

whlch the.ew lonarcr6cent could not be slghted 6nd

th.

lunar nonlh b68an one day lare, or too opilmjsrlc clalms ol obse atloh and tho
Lunarmonthbeganonedayearllerthanpredlcted.
Funher, In ihls work another aoollcarlon ol these models is consldered. Tnls
is lhe use ot lhese modelsto dwelop a compui.tional roolro

detemlnethe lenglh

of cesce.t from cusp to cus!. flie nw lun.. c.scent as well as crescent on next

few evenan$ b obsened io bs shorter tha. its rheoreli.ar length Le. 180 degree

IromonecusDlotheother.Anumberoialrho6havedscribedthereasonsforthe
shortenln of the obsenBd crescent (Danlon, 1932, Schaefer, 1991, McNally,

1943). However, Jew have atlempted devislng a mathemallcal technlque lo delenino the exrenr of rhis shorrening ol rength ot crescent. On the basis ol one
pafamelef dlleia ee have used cresent ot minimum visible widlh as limil on lhe

le.$h or .re$enr and

a simple rechnlque to calculate lr. beginswilh a desc ption ofthesme.

devrs6d

The chapter

5.1

LINCTH OF LUNAR CRESCENT

Ihe hct,lld rltc nc\v luhlrclesor appcds stroncr llEn 180. terA r.islnorn ldt cenlrics. Il wns Denj.h wlD fi^r savc rn exptturarnr for the pbenoneion (Dor.ru_

lt32&1936)andalributcdi(o$etunarteniincloseto$ecuspsMcN! yanribuluda
dillerenl reNon snh

tis

pbenomion disadine Danjon\ hlpo$esis (McNa y, 198:t).

McNall) proved

rhar lh tcngrh

ofrhc shadoss ctose to $

spherc

hrnar
rtre

cNp ond fic d.panolc

oflunar suiface IoD beins pertecr

coutdnl,jimiiish

brignllrss oflhe regions

ofcresent close ro cusps lo bc rhe caNc ol rhe phenomenon. IIe arribured ttrc tength shorlcdng ofcNscent to lbe,.seing afeca,due lo $e turbrlcDe of lne ,rhosplrere.
McNally has also developed a limula for calcutalnlg te knBh of rhc desceDl, Larcly Sull (Sulta., 2005) has anribured 0E shortening of lengtn of crcscenr duc to the Blackwell Conr.st Threshold (Btackwclt, 1946) and has dleloped forhula lo

c.lcurale ciesenfs lcngrh. W. have aho devctopcd a sinpte &chniqne tor catcul.ring

173

l.nglh of new

lum ccscenl (Qucshi

and Khrh, 2007). In the fouowins we reprcduce

this cflorr wilh slighr nodiilcation md a codection,

Schrrer cjecred McNall! s expldaion on $e bais or his Yiw thar rhc shonening oflhe cr{ent length is situply b.ca6c oflh sharP d*line offie brigntnss of rhe crscenr clo* ro rhe cusps SchaelTer, 199 ! ). Usins rh. dcudte dodel of Hatl@
(

(llapk , 1984) for calcularing rhc surface brighhcs ollhe cesnt Scbaetrer claims that Daljon\ collected obse aions anJ his own n* dara fic tbe nodel Howewr, nenhet
Danjon nor Schaefer have sneecsred a ddhod lor calculaling

cacehl

ldg$

Hapkt
as

rDdcl nat be accurat for $eoreical setling rclatcd lo thc clongalion ofrhe M@n bul

frr

as the obscryed crescnls are conconcd dEre oughl

lo be

a depanur

frod snooth

relarion berween elongation and lhe crescenl lcngth. Thc tason we co.sider n baFd on

obsenarions ofsone norning and {enihs cesccDh.

ltosl of

the

edly desfiption of the phononen, concenuated on rclatine it to

the

plEs (or dongation) of the Moon ihal is gcnet lly

th !e6on b.hind the Phenonenon

As rhc clongalion increass rne lengrh of rhe cesccnl fronr cusp to cusP keps iocNing Nhich a connon obseryalion. The nathemalicd dc*riprion ol lhe phenomenon

ufdeficicncy arc. br Daijon Nd

esrimrrcd

limil oo VcNJlly le ro ren .mdll "dlu* lbr DJnjotr Liilil lhe d*np'ion due lo McNallv i: logicall, souDd so is $at of Suh dd bolh rcsulkd in$ tcchniques for calculatng
hDglh of

!ho\t to bc incoftd bv McNallv Hosevr. e orr rh ninimu \idlh of visibl. cEse (2 to 6 arc seconds) bv

'n

lems

se$oa. HoNerer bolh llcNally

dnd Sullan hrve nol reponed lhe aptlicalion

1998.

of rlEn desription o. lh Ecorded hisloricll dria found in liiiatuE (Yallop Schaeffer l99l elc ). Accordinglo Danjon, d desctibed by F.l@hiet al

si,(a)
Wh.c $e @
elongltion
PQ =

st(.)

cot(@)
at
in

(5'l l)
(Fatoobi e|'

Al" 198) a is rhe dd o i5 half the cccenl lnElh tr apP6 rhal Dojon tr*d lhe Sine
o is fie deli.icncy

fiS l

t14

fomulE. by Nunins sphdicEl

6gL

at Q to b.

idr egle McNallv rejeded Dmjoo s

(5.1)

dSmcnt ed 6ing fou-Pafl fomuh adiv6 .l:

Nlserically, for small ddgtes

. muejn't dillemce b'lsFn lhe lso the cre$ent l'nrth (2o) is Esults. Generally thc .lonsation (4) cd be cahulaled and ro obede.!. e the rw fomuls 6 b. LPd lo find fi' dclici'ncv arc' Hosder'
d

sd

a thee is onlv

calcul.rc the
angula!

c6..1

lenelh nonc of these

a cusp in

be

ued- McNally daetoPs a fomula fot

rpdlion

9 ftoD

tems ofclescent width R

d:

I
SinE

-T *t' t Rl

(5.r

r)

lron dE nininum lisibl. *id$ n.sured ih ddid dncdon 'wtv is l8O0 _ 29 disc. Thercforc the logh of th ce*ent h oblaits
(sultan 2oo5) adres at tlE Usiry (he Blackqell $rcshold con(6t Sutan rh' smalld eqlivalnl Blackselr ninimun vhibG *id$ (in |ems of didetcr of l@rion of ob$Parion' (Bhckstll, 1946) di*) of c@enl ar Frigee dd apoge al his
crc$61 lenglh rsi Tbe fomula rhal hc deleloped for calculali'8 thc

,=f!1.'to"
l2t )

o.l4)

whde r h th

sdldidetd

of tbe

Moo[ md

o5

l2t +w \

{5.1.5)

wirh w is the dimter

of

e 5)

snallsr visible .quivalent Bl&kqcll dnc and l/ h cental

widtholrhecre$e.t. (5.1

is$ecorsted fomof (1.5)inQureshi a Knan(Qutshi & Kian, 2007). Sultd.onside6 minimum diameter of Blacliwell dGc lo bc 0.14 alc minucs Nho the Moon b near perise md 0.16 m ninuls whn the Mmn is n.or

The presenl $ork is based on rhe obseNalion or the last (old) rcsceit

oD

February 26,2006. Duling this obsenation rhat sGned from lhc bcginhing ofnorning

oviliglr rill \ell past sutrie, il was noriced rhar for rhis 48 holrs Mon. noE tlrn

2?

dcFcs aMy ton lhe

sun

ftc ce$ent ln8fi srancd ro derede \rith lhe rising suD

simihr obsnalion on Mdch 28'' shen lhe aee of Moon wds dound

3l tous !.d

arolnd 18.5 degrees asay lron rhe sun. rhe cdscenr leneth d*leased nrorc npidly qi(h

d(E6ing co.ra$, The l.n rine thb ciescent wJs $en lvilhou optical aid well at$ sunriF s?s less lhd 90 dege* in lngh. Tso dtys later nw cc$enl with agc 27 6 hols ar 15 degees a\ey fom lhe sun Nas olsned till setling Close lo lhe lDtiab
though rhick humid a(mosphde the crcsnt lenglh Ms aganr obscrved to bed4rcsnrg

Thee obsFations cleaily demonslrare thai lheF isnuch notc

phcnohenon
shows

1o b

expload abolr lhe

ol

shonening of

cc$ent lcngth apan fom tlapke s .curate model thrl

detendoce ofcB*cnt lcnsth on clongalion tlone.

TherefoE, inrhis
rhe

qorl,lo

besin

si$ qecoisidera

simPl. seodeuical model ior

ce$e.r.

fu

model dFsibes the phenoncnon of shortnine of lcn8lh that depends

on th. aclual

seniSiaocLr of lh. Moon

*ll a the rclaliv. alliiude (ARCV) of th

pmnct.t
(q-vatue or

csc.nl o\fr tftal

sky. This is denved fro,n thc sinste

!!al!c)

crilerion of edlie$ visibiliry or cre$ent (chapler 4)

whe.cve! rhe widlh (o' btigb$e$) of

fld

is bascd on th facl thai

cF*c

clos to

cusp is below lhe mininuto

vhiblc cnrnl widrh (or

b ghtn6,

or rh. dcscent the vhol l.hsth or ccscent wirh

t76

s.lld

width eould nor b. visibl.. Applying ou mod.l on lhe rc@ded vbibihv rnd
dala lvaitablc

fic ldgth ofcEsenl in 4ch ce is calculaiql Thc calcnlaled lenSrhs of c$en1 @ al$ omParcd wih thc obseded leheths dd wi$ thc lengds catculsred uing fodlls (t.1.3) de b McNally md (s.1.4 & 5 1 5) due b Slltan. ln
iNisibiliiy

cs

ofusing McNally's fomuh AA is @nsidded liom lhe cilerioD used in lhis work &d for Sul|!n's fomula the ninimM width or Bl&kwll disc (,) it 66ideEd b be in the d.ge 0.14 alc minul io 0.16 arc Finut and depnds on the dislane b.tqeen Eanh

&d th. Mmn obtained using simpl. lined inieQolalion

IrviwofQueshi & Khan (QuEshi & Khan,2007) displacement v frcn a cusp is gvei bY

tlre bLishrns

ofcfsenr

ar

8..

tF...Cdv tr -cos

t)+

(5.r.6)

sh*

G th radius

of Moon, F. is fie mdimun nux of sunlight

olVoon.l islhc 'ePar-rion berqecn lhe Sunand 'te Moon in our the Eanh' the lutu suface dd X B th disldc. of the M@n ftom
lhe cescenl at angular sepaElion V fom lhe cusP is eivcn bv

lV,r,

=rcosWll

CosE) = tl ccatv

(5.!.7)

whc t/. is lh.

oo ro 9Oo

width of fie

cdnr

i!

lne diddle ln bolh the* quttioc

!' vari6 lmh

alo.g fie lenerh of rhe cFscent frcn centE ro a cusp respeclverv

For rhc develop'nen( ofanv nodel thai dcsibes $e

ni'inun

Po$ibl' sidlh rhtt

cd

$e aclual bc visiblc lttrough naked eve one requi.es 10 s'ek guidance fron srv voug obedalioN. ln $e history of *idtjficatlv rcponcd obeNation of thc 1990 (eporled bv cr.sent Moon, lh ecord is that due lo Pi.rce od February 25' jusl 14 E he claift |o have sn wirh narcd ev' B s.h!.fd ad
houB and

cl*nt ils widrh wa3 O 18 dc minut

Yatlop) Thc

Amonesl

'll

rfie

'*oded

ob*flalios lh'

t11

wb nvd rcpon.d- In lhe norlel $ar is developed in this sork thc losct limil ofihe *idth ofvisibl. ctsent is considered ro be o.l8 aE minut. However this ninimum is not th abelule ninimm for all c6@nls for all posible el ile altitudes (ARcv). I. fiis work *e consider rhh ninimun of 0. 8 md . arc-ninutcs of crcscenl width shen fic Elaliw dinulh. DAZ of $c M@n is ao
rhin cesc.nr
1

siglling of such a youg

ed

rlr r.larir.

alliiudc

ARcv

gives lhe

q-lalueof_0.22. Y.llop

ditedon (4

2 3)

for

$n q-

,1R(y =9 6311-6J226W +0 7319

Thc values of ARCV according lo lhis Nould

t'i2 ol0ls,t/3

6'18)

*iteion

giving $e q_rdlue equal to '0 22

ield ! difcre lotrrlihiion

lhc visiblc width olthe crescenr' Tbis is causcd bv

dilTriem relarivc dzinulhs DAZ FoT

lh. lasl posibl' ARCV (4o) th *id(h ol

lbe

ln iNisibk ae$erl Nould bearcund 108 alc{cconds $at occur dl a large valucofDAZ tr\i.\r ol diis $ilcrion ihi nininud {idth of lisible cr$eol for @v ARcv is Gm'd and s te *esent isjusi invisible for$is{idth:

(tIa)
Whqrc l'l. is tlE tlmrclical

enlEl sidlh of he ces'enr and 4costl

de$ent

is $e rduced

rvidth al aogte V Irom lhe center of $e ahnude ARCV li

ordcr thal soEe pan ol

'/dsenl

dre

sidth rduced bv the chnve

is visibl

4(!'rvl > l'l'

ar sonc
0" ro

\alue V =

Vn

'llrus thc eftstive visibte widlh of$e ce$cnl tor v nnsing

fon

(5.1.r0)

900 - t th' aclul visible Th. brishlness of crescenl falls sha4lv s 0 approaches valu of vidh eiven bv of cE$.nt at any val!. of V m6r tE less tbd d e'onetic (5 1 10) is justiced (5.1.8) Therefore rhc etr6tiv' v6ible width siven bv

reidrh

equatioh

178

IE

dly lh koglh of.ilsc.d 6d nodo! htr lh. vilibL with of {tt*.al b! lo diminjrl rlso. Wh@\tr lhc cr.rcdt it ilviliblc 'n vi.w of (5.19) 4r'bs to
it ir ma

c*v-fr=r
I!.ll
oOE qscr.

(5.1.Il)

ia vi.r6e lb .tleI it vit'bL ia sftlth tl to'E 'rgh dilh!6l!.cc..ttti3ncv.r!d.conDldc 180!irlcrgh Tbu!'tV=V.

!'n Dlrt

(5.r.r2)

Tladc i. (51.12) ||,! i! ! ddr..

lcogth

of

Idf l!! l6tt

of

ih' cr'!c'dt $ itll

lt' iol'l

oflh. ctelcai k

Sivcn bY:

t;rr*"CY'*)

(t.l.lr)

mt

'I}lus $e
xcecds the

ae$c
$.

len$h

cd

be dalualed whelever $e fieoelical

sidlh lr'
s_

mi.ioM

width

,/,

visible acording

b YalloPt

q'lalue ctn'rion oi our

5.

value criterion, for

palticular lalues of ARCV In

$c Fis

ll

the

*8nent [D or

ARCV inlisibl according to Yallop's cliterion The scgnenl AB is rhe thorcdcal widlh ltl" at fie cenrE of fie cresccr! Al sngular 'lheefore the ponnt on spaBrion vr from tbc centre olcsent ED equh4(nrl/" AC is the ninimm width lil- at

dv

rhe ouler

linb oi rlc

cresceni tbal

las dguhr separaion fon cerrc geal$

ihan @d

s.

noi be visibl TIE lisiblc = ZDOA should

cls

then

crtnds fom D o D'

has letrBlh 2!rn. One should nole lhal Nheneve! ttl"

Yallop

nitrion)

is Srearer

(nininum vhible wid$ accordnr8 b tan ttlq ($coetical widtb) {5 1 13) can nor bc sed ind the

cresceDi

isnotlisible, ie iihas m lengdr'

crcsccnl hrs been The tr1odel developed nl this Nork lo cotrlpute tlB lenglhoflhe

applied

1998) Tbe resuls

1984 Ylllop' lo a nuobc. ol ob*rvalions lepon'd in IneralE (Schaeffd irc of foi ihe crescenl length against lhe elongatio' also kno*n as
in lable 51 1and in

lighl orARCL,ae ptscnled

{t.1.8)

Fig

t'l2

Tlre loBlhs mcalculaFd

foi tlrc valLE by scleciing lhc nnrinum vhiblc Nidrh Vn of dcscenl in rh elerv ca* and ihen usnrg (5 1 13) b
The colunns or rhe hble 5
l'

ofARcv

'c'ordrg

ob*ivirion thc @dinares of Fspeclilclv) tbe rclatilc umull) rhe lcatioD of obseryer (Ldlilude and longitud

sllow rhc darc ot

clon8alion (ARCL) of $e Moon at lhc be'( PAZ). rlre dladve .hnude (ARCV) 'r:d lhe and lhc cental widh ol cr'scnl in arc rinc ofobstvalion. lbllowcd bv setr1i_didetr sidlh viiihle at lbe rclatile alritude ninules. rlt 4_valu., lhe niDimum cF$enl lensth cdlculared usiie (5 1 11) Thetablc c.lculated lom (5.1 8) and finallt the cE$e'r
is aFmged in chmnotogi@t or<lr of
data sl lhat

ob$mtio's dd

co't'ains onlv Pai of th conPlele

hs

ben used for

conpaine mod'ls for

carli esl crescenl siehting in

pe!'ous

180

200

180

fi

3ro
i;@ JM

reo

Era

io80

roo

=ao 0

30 20 E mno

tig-

5. | ,2:

Crlgn

Lcogll!

tr' vdi.Ii@ dE

ARCV

Tlr! Fi8 5 1 2 slD{! lhai lh. nbdioel

ctdid

bdwen

ct!*4t

lcntlh

mdcl Th' ctdgltion h not snolh s Eporr.d bv sd|Itrcr on {E b$i! of H@k''t tui! r.rlds fd tl 5 N (i) dE cr.rc.nt hngth ha to bc tff"t'd bv dE ElihMoon ro lqizd trN|l tfrecr li' dist ncc .! cl'in d abos (ii) 0F dttdgbdic n!td4' cloe ftal v'rv wi'lc cle cr$ent losrh., cl.imcd bv McN.[v ald Silrd MoEov{ 'ot! d4 vicitritv qftb $t hori4o mull mt v|tilh $ddolv for s

'd

lhc

$d nult not h'r'' as lcngh (i3 msl' !t eidt dt b. i isiblc) !.dding to cLi$ of scn*&t Ttt invisibilitv of t '!l*al sftn dft$L diiod' (ARCV) de to ii! clo..n6 io lFdzon (sd[ ARCV) Ho*E' b tbai for r sw' of $e rnc G..nt 3lEI bc d!ibl.. Ot <ftosnlid lnd cltir dt ldgft of $idlh tlt stving tud' (ARCV) mud clN lo dtc4"
invisiblc crcsc.nr the elongaiion

invilibte

dn

lo

$.it

mv

ba ttiSc

rrn (sfrcidt) .le.nl fron nt mdinwn

lcnr$ vh'n itt {-valu' is 69 5 12 odlv dto* h.low limils of !tuio!) sooulv dd iot sdltolt' b nE $din'd b'@ i"n or [E obsflllloB .rc coNidctld tri.n lh' d!c'!t M cltimcd b h!rc
(al DAZ = 0) 10 iB minimun (terc

cr.!c.d Loglt i!

c!a!.bla

lEr

182

T.bl.

5.1.1 {Continued

r8l

Tabl 5.'1.1 (Conllnued)

Durins rhis

{ork $e

?O

obw.tions of Dfljon (ne ionc{

the pictotjal data of

bv Scha'lTs

and Fabohi 1. al.) @uld nol he

acc6sd, howvc.

cdccnt ltngth ir
obseNed

beins eeneraied at fte Asaolonical

Obsdllory

al

Univdilv of Kdachi. Th!

1

cBcell lengh fon

phologEphic Ecoids i5 given in Tabl 5

2. This inclldes sone

obsryadons made by olhe^ durirg past

fe{ ycas

and tbeir pictutes ate availoble liom

M.icproi.on

maiDtaind by oteh,

184

Tne nodel dcvcloped in lhis

for borh Ih brigh$6s

ad th.

lenglt of

.led by rhc single pmercr crilcrjon for $e earlien visibility of ncq lunar cFscn1, Thc model prcvid6 a simpte method of

cmce.i is nainly
cdculaling lenglh
whenerer

geomerric, suppln

of

lunar ce$eot and taks inlo accounl lhe atnospheric afects

r$ent l6grh is nor cakulaled

indiicclly through singlc pdaneler crit ria for th. vnibility of new llnar cressenr only.

t/. < n/- fi

dd

rh

according lo eordcd obsedation (lable 5.1,1),

TL

nodel hd been Gn.d in nw $ays

I:i6r. ior so6e of $e rcccnt obeflarions whose phologlaphic Ecoids arc available $e cilculated dd obscrvcd cescenr le.erhs tre compared and shown in jablc 5.1 2 and nr

lig

5.1 7. The cFscent l.nerhs calculared ushg ou! lornula (5.1.13) arc SEaler thm lhc

obseoed values

dd

rhose due ro Sultan srechnique arc genedllt closer to the using th. fomnla of McNrlly A-t

obefled

!alu6. In calcul{ions

= ,r- dd X = seni'diafreter ol

The colu$ns nr rable 5.12 show rhe dalc ofobseruation lhc coor\iiMlcs ol rhc locatior ofthe obseNer (lalirode md longitudes
rhe Moon

ii

degre

resp*li!ely),lhe elongation

o1'

fod

rhe sun

in d8rees, the seni-diamcrer oflhe Moon. thc c.nlral rvidt[

ol

lh

cEsce.l. ninioum visible width of cre*.nl (all in dc minul6). lollosed bv lhe crescenl length crlculated by our nodel ,id $e obsded crc*chl lnglh. lhc .a'nc ordrc
obseNer Th

l.(

No colunns contain cGsce|n lcngtlrs

as calculaled usirr8

rlE nrodek

rlu" ro sutron onj Uctlutty

.,p.ctvely.

Thc du(a in rhh ubl has bccnlnlnucd iD ordcr

oiincre.sine elongalion ot ARCL.

To dGmine rh. lngh
is opened in any sraphic

ol!

crcsenl fom picroial record the dieital phoroemph

$nw

l@l- SeleclinS coordinales of

lhe

oa the

poin6

(*o
the dre

ofr&n do*roeachoftu

cusp md on closc ro supposed

vhible oute! liob ot lhe oe$eol an equation

coordinales of lhe centre of the

cenftof$ccrc*enoon of circlo h developed $at leads to

luft

disc, toining lhe cenlre of the lund disc with lh

two yisible cusps of thc crsce.l tbe dsle made al fie centre bv thc tso cnspc is mc6ud. Tn picue of one of tlE cre$ent m.$u.d in this Mv is shoM in Fi8 5 l ?

185

Fig. No. 5. L7: Mesuemcnr of Length for Cterent of Mav 28. 2006 as pholoeraphed rr

Xffiltr

UtoveElty obsefrd@ry.

'the dlta aor the obsiedcEscehl lenglhshoM in |able 5 12 and the cbart
5.

i. fig

L? shows inlqesrine paficn. Clain d by Schacfer (Sch@fer, l99l ) fie crc$ent lcngh is a sn@$ fiDction of elonSatio.. but lhis drE er sho*s a tMd that cl*lv exhibns

delialion tion

oy

such

sn@$ rel.tion. I]lc dala sdple is snall bnl lheE de lwo

tnd

subsets eech having neally sE@th relations, separatelv. btwcc. lhc crescent length the longation. Hovever,

rhen consideed

elongarion

ll93

de8lees (by

s a conbiNd dala sel lh obsflatios uith AnFa} l44l de8@s (bv Oner) 1667 degEes (bt

Ralini) md 20.12

degrees (by

rclarion exhibiled by the

Qwshi) deviarc Mkdlv lbm $e apPaEnl snoofi rcsl oflhe dala set Cecchl lnsths in rhcse four cNs are huch

snallcr thm lhe uend shown by the rcsl ofob$wationsas wellss thcresultsofe&h rhc mod.ls co.sidred abovc fot calculaline lhs le.gtb of $e ciesccnl

186

AII the* fout deviati.S cdes ae photogdphically Ecoded dd have the ledi posibiliry o| obseNational ercs. Out of |he ts1 of th. ight ca*s anothcr six @

"ob$nation.l lcngrh of .ew lunr cE$ent is @nMed ils Eladon wift elo.Salion mul nol bc sneln 6 shoq in flsuE 5. L2 as wu 6 table 5. l2 (or nsurc 5. L7).
plDlosnphic. Thc rccords due lo Sch&fq de lhc only

cag

0tar

It is
h6
rhe

tunher nored $ar rhe rool mear square

erot

calculated

foi lhe lhree

s melhod
16

conputational frdhods (Ouls, Sultmt and McNally

it n found $at Suhan

led( cror (4.76 degret follosd by McNally's thal ha m

.mr

of 6

decrs

dd

degR' The najo. difernce hlwen our model dd rhN Sulbn's dd McNaUy s is that olr nodel 8iv* coosislmtlv hisher valucs ol the lenefi oi crc$ent, wliets $e orner lNo nodcls havc bolh posidve lnd n.8flive emn
our model hd an eror of ? 22

Thfunctionalrel.tionbet*eenelongationardlhecrcscenllnglhissinlilorinolrtuodcl aDd $ar due to Srll.n s. bul lhe oneerhibi(ed by McNally's model is m.rkedly difitrcnl
McNally s mod.l is Sivins betre esuhs for larser elo.gaion but a3 $. clo.Sation becond snaller the emr given by McNally s nodl beconcs leser and ltrger

Tdhl. No

t.1-2tth:.^r"la r'!h,lak.t

L?ngths

o[CrctehB

t87

180 160
'110

1m
100

80 60
zlo

15

ELOIGAN()|{

+OBSERVED FOURESHTS
Fia.

SULTAMS o MCMI.LYS

No 51.7

200

i60
160

E.ro
:100

380 360
20 0

15 20 25
ELq{GAIOI{

3)

Fig 5 |

8r

C'lsat tdgo5 $rinc Eloqiion

withdn

wi.rioa dc

ro

aRCv

188

Tlre modcl for rhe calculation of visibiliry ctuerion 6uch in the smc say
nphasis

cc*ot

lenglh may be u$d

rh.

.dli6t

*6

nor

dcvlop

6 Yallop\ cilcdon cm b. usd, Hos.ver, our d allcm e cdr.ion for $c s. This *ork ws i .nded

for a brter und.htdding ofthe grcme$y of the lunar cEscent md lo delelop a ne$od
for cllcuhting iis lnsrh.

The scond md indi@t tesi of the 6odel is its conparison qitb the rcsuhs of

Ddjon ncnliored in Fal@hi

el- al.

Ifthe niiimlm visiblc eidlh

,/,

for vdious ARCV

according lo Yallop's critcrioh is r.placed by rhe

nininum ever visible cenralwid$ of 0.18 aa ninuks tlEt is equivalor b igoring $e atmospheric allst for lower ARCV
|hen the Eladon

b.tsen cEscdr
l99l).
The

lcngrh and
is

.lon9rioo bccons snoolh

as

pE*nrcd by

Schaefer (Schaeftr.

smc

shoM

ii

Fis. 5.1.8. The chart in figwc 5.1.8 aho

sho\s lhat limiling value ofelo.gation lor po$ible lisibilily oflh cEscsr is areund 8
d.grees. As our compurlrions do considerthe an'cctofparallaxrhis limil is equivatenr lo

te

? degrce

linil

very popultrly

rlown $ DanjoD\ linit.

On thc b6is of $e calcuhred lenghs of {escenr and ns elonearior using ou

hodel the Ddjon deficicncy arcs aE calculrted igno.ing the af&ch ol ARCV by
aomula givn by Danjon and thal given by McNally (shown in Fig. 5.1.9 and s.t.lo

Bpedi!ly)
^rrcduoion

These resuhs

ae in clos agreencnr wilh fte Fig I in Flroohi el al (lbar is a

of Danjon\ lis 2)-

189

*.

Fi8. 5.l.9i

D.fici@y Arc rg.ind Elongtiod f.dding to D6jon

;r 3.

Pig.5.1.l0: D.tr

idct A!!.gd!d Eld$tLa...qdiosb LlcNdly

190

6.2

LUNAR CALENDAR FOR PAKISTAN

Mosl of the hlami. counri* follow

ob*wadonal lu.d calnde,

ar leasl

fot

ftn

rcligious purposes, Although subslantial work is done to cvolle a pediction

ciiie on ro dcvclop a univerel calenda! by llys (1984b, 1988, 1991, 1994a, 199,1b, 1997) ed otheB, r truly lnilersd calendd could nor be dvelop.d. As according Io
coDmon Islmic bliefactual sighline

of$c n6! L6d crceenl

is n*essaty to bgin a

Lund monlh, such a univesl calend& $cns lo be inpo$ible. This b |fue speci.lly bcau* just aner conjuncion $e new luna! crcscenr is nol visibl on rhe sme day
lhroughoullh worl,l, eveD

ift*o

places

ofobseNatio.areoD sm loDgirude. According

1o recent delelopnenb (Scabefer. 1991. Yallop, I998, Qurcshi &Khao.2007) ob*ryational l@r calendaB for each Isl.mic counlry m be d.veloped bur dc ooi s.ncally
acceptcd b)'' rarious

Isl.nic conmunities.

ln Pakisian an Offrcial Commiirle (Ruer-e-Hilal Comnft(ec) decidcs about when

1o

beg$ a Lunar nFdrh on tbc bdis ofpublic cvidence and obseNatioos. This

connilre

sa$e6

infodaioi

3bour thc

claim ofsishriig

rhe

csce

Thc clrims arejudged

oi

rhc basis oflhe

diFdncsof$e Islmic

Laws. Som FpEsenlalivesofvdousscienrific

organiatiom de
way,lhe beginning

cle

consnhed. Oncc

$c clain/s is jNritled
on

relisiously andor

soientilicauy, $e Ennoucemenl is nDde rboul begiming ofthe nexr Lun,r m.nrh In x

ofE\v lunemond

is bascd

public obscBations ' verined

ii licw

ofde pnncipals

laid dosn br lslamic shariaat laws (lisled inanicle 1.3).

'lle

advmrae. is rhal a larse numb$

of ob*Ne6" trle

pan in $e exeai$ and

oa thcsc

wilh it the pmbability of sighlins .ew cBscenl is incesed. Morcover, hon

observeis de iionr rural arcas sherc thde is leasl

ihduriallraffic

6nd liSht pollution,

aid n k higlJy prob.blc thal lhe obseNing condilions d nar perfect. TheEfore in this
sluljy
lhis

lhe* public obs.rvations e considcrcd |o bave a hki degE. of autnendciry. ln \ork all lhcsc public ob$dation-b.*d d.res ofsiart ofach Lunu nonth frcn ye.r
b
2007 ae reproduced and

2000

srudi.d in conparison wirh thc Yallop\ q value and

l9l

ours-value crirerion-baed crireria. A similar wolk for the period2000-2005 has akeady

bcr reFned (Qushi snd Kh0,

TIE resuhs

2005)

(Shawl,

of E 95 lnDation during the Jmualy 2000 lo Scprenbd 2OO7 1420 AH lo RaM, 1427 AH) .tong *nh obsRalional data 4 presenred

in yeady lables in appcndixlv All rhe conpuklio.s fo! the* tables de basd for the city of KaEchi (Larirud. 24o 56, Longitude 6?0 l.). The fisl cotom indicales 16r conjDct'on wjrh nonrh, day, hour, ninde and seco.d for rhe l@al rim of conjuictioi
in the sub-columhs. Thc calcularions are done for rhe day oftast

codlncioi,

fo! $e nexr

day and vherc

Equird two days

tater, indicaled undc. colunn hcaded

.Ldt Coij

followed by rhe Dale in Oregorian catendar. Nexl

$o

cotlmns givc lhe rlarive ahnude

(ARCV) and reladve azimuth (DAZ) in degrecs foltowed by nooDset-sunscr tag ir m,nules. ftc age ofM@n (in houc), rhe arc or tignt or tonsalion {ARCL in degrt

fie cBscenhvidrl (irr arc minlret apper $e iexr rhre. cotunns, iolhsed by colhns indicaling the r-value, visibilily condition otr q-value. lhc .elahc and the
and

visibihy conditio.s on s,value. Thc visibitiry condirions are lho* de$nbed in hblc 4.2.4 (for Yallop\ oiterion) dd labt 4.4.4 (tor euEshi & Khan qirerioD). Under rhe
hcrding of

'Momh $c colmn givs

rhe nrhc of

sighring reponed on $ previous evening

Isl.nic mondr $at begi$ anq a foltowed by $c CreBorion d.te ot slan ofrbh
dare

lDnlh.In lhis 16l coluDn und$ Cregori&

in dE nonrh,

ofsiafling lunnnDnrh, numbsofdar-s

iE

also

8nd

Ttu la{ colunnr conr.ins a comnenl.

If

rc dccision oa

sl.nrng new lunar noDlh is in agrccment

vi$

the prediotion

critsioD Gratur q.ilqioi)

arc

thc column conrains I,ROPER.

consideed lo b.

tle

..ob*ryalional

decision .nd tbc Nodet

i..gEeme.t only $ne. thc s-value clirerion show Ev, i.e. crcscenr is clsily visiblc. Tbe conrhenr in ttE tasl cotuDn cobrains ,LATE, if thc dcchion of
startng new lund nonrh is one day lare

indicaled by rhe dat of

csy visibitiry on r_

lalue and EARLY

the lunar nonlh has been naned ooe day edlier rhan lhar indisted by the prediclion crn on. A5 staled eelier all de* calculariohs @ doDe for
KaEchi and for rhe b.sr local lime for E$.nr lisibitily.

iI

Hower, ir

should

b.

nored

lhal observarion claios are couected from alloverlhe counry.

192

Out of rhe 95 public obsesalioDs reponed jn rhis \o*, rher wre o.ly six occ6ions (Jbe,2000, Juq200l, Juty 2004, ApnL 2006, Jury,2006 and Juty,2o0?) vh.n th sighling war Epond one day latc ii compdison b rhc pcdictio, crnria
according ro which the New CEscent was lisible on rhe pevious day bd reponed. Tbere was oDty one oeasion {hor rhe earty sighrnrg is rcponcd
2004), hus,1herc weE only 6.3% enors in rhe decisio.s oflh moon

*s

not

Nov. D, sightingcomine

sven yas. llese resul$ e ba$d on verifi.d chims Tbe data B8arding nnmberofcE*cnl siendnB d.ins $ar sre notrc ficd is nol available. The
of Pakistd duing

ld

only case

of

LARLY'sighring acepred by $c audonties was for rhe nonrb of

rtr five indicated occdsions is th overBr sky all o\r lhe country in.lllbese caes.In case of$e onl)-' earty sigh ns for rh.Ian scven yea6 altnpts for cRscenr siehring \ere n,ad rhe Obscdatory ofu.ireBity oa

The main

'e6oi

tor lare sishlinss or

Karuchi using

CodC reliacror rclescopc.'the prediction crnerion based on r-value

dllowcd cescent visibility with oprical aid and rhat based on 4-vatue did hot .llowed visibilily eleo silh lelcsope. We failed in sighinS of the crsccnt bul rhe omcials
acccpted clains of mlied eye sighli.ss

fron aR. ctoe to Kamhi. Akhough,(he d\o

$n$il

cosidercd did nol allow naked ete visibitny on rhisoccasion lhc misconc+tion lhat if rhe ph4se ol rhc cresenr is noE rh.n l% n shoutd be lisible (Asrmnonicul AhnrnJ..:l]O7r n ayha\c leJd he,te.i. or D.Jtcr rorcer rt,e.tdtrn;.
The low percenbgc

ofee6
m@n

in rhis obscryalion.l elfo,1 is much noE pbnisi.g

compaGd

lhe

6ul$ of

wlch,
$

progEms cohdEted in Unncd Slales in thc tar.

1960s and rcpond by Dogger

& Schsller ( 1994) Accordi.erorhh rcporl l5%positite

cresceno and 2yo negadve

rcs (qons clains of

observing

eriou (cescenr
cxperienced

was

visible bur rhe obsrveF

nissd then) {qc

iound monssr

$c

ftooi

s"lche6. Thqe exF i.nccd h@n watcheu \v.rc geneElly consideFd b know wne,e lo lind $c crcsce.r dd whar dc oiolatioo of rhe ..homs" wa.

l9l

Freque.dy. claims of lery

dy

sighiiog

made

in sonc rcgioG of paknb!

4s

(pardculely for ianins rhe dontbs of

Rd.a

ad Shawat

ienrioned beforc) $at

ad nor accefled by rhe au|hodds. Oie offic Dajor @!s of rh4 dly clains of sighting ofncw se$cnt in Pakisran is lh. kenness otlh clainr dd lh nisco.epdon .mongst trasses ftar when lhe 'tighting" hos been eponed in the Kingdom of Saodi Arabia lhe cr$nt nrusl be sighred the ncxt day in palistan, However. tbe oilcill
d<ision about slani.g n.w
acrual signdng

luiu

Donth in lh. Kingdom ofsaudi Ambia is nor baed on

of lhe n w

c6ent

Thee dcisions

based on cnrcria rhar have

chased tuee tnes ovt $c pan two decad6 (odeh 2o0o).

Up ro 1999 the

citria

vas

fouows

lf$e

Moon.s age at

or horc alter
nron6.

fi New M@q ihe pevious

day

drsunslis t2 hou6 is the fi6t d.y of lhe Islanic

on

fiis

actually

matu lhd lhc luDr donrh begiG

ro lhe naked

tu

day ofconjuncrion

oa Moon

vhich occurs on or two dats e.rlis than $e rime shen tbe n.N
vhible .ye,

crescent becom.s

Fmm 1999te crilerjon

{6

chareed ro the tottowing: The tunar monrh besins on

lhe eEning *hctr the sun*1is bforc

tlt

moon

9l

according to Mrcca. This

\as

no di$rtuus .s ir is Fssible
rhe

lhar rhc sunsel befoe moonsd

sil

occur even

belbre rhe conjunction. ThEfore. rhe hmar montn may begin three days betorc

ccscent bcomes vhible to nlked cye.

in)

Ftum 2001oD\ardr rhe

cirdion

is:

a) b)

Tl'e socemic

onjudion scurs

bfoP

Sb*t.

The Moon sck aner rhe Sun.

This is nore realistic bul it is scarccly possible thal the crcscenl becones visiblc
on dE day

ofconjunction.

The

Min p@mders signinc.nl in lh. .arti6r visibilily

crnerion for lhe luoa

cEscenl aE LAC, AOE, ARCV, DAZ, ARCL, Phas

ad

lh widrh of cE$e.t. As

n.ntioned abov none ofrhs pomelets alonc decide the visibiliiy or.on vhibilitv of

t94

lhe

lmd ft*e.t.

Cncrally thc crnical valuc of thc Phsc

rhc priod flom

considEd lo

b. t%
$ar

(Astrononicrl AlMac, 200?). Duing

were consid.ed in lhis 3tudy rhe'e cEscenl with

Jduary,2000

Sepr., 200?

qs

nor a sinsl. incidencc when rhe

sidd.s ot

phN l.$

lhan l%

ws

eponed and am/.d. There weE two @c6io.s

when lhe ph6e

grcarer rhan l% bur

ihrr. ws

no claim of sightings

a.d sighting

ws

not possible accoding ro bo$

lh. oitclia considqed (Oct. 23,2006

and Dec.

2l,2006).

In lhc cae ofNov, 13,2004 th. phase

ws I

l9% lhal may have been lhc Eason rhat rtre

siehting.lain qas accepred

(as

ne.don.d earlie4.

TheyounBslcrescentof agc t9.l hou6(!r bstdheoivisibilny)eendurinClhe period of study was that of May l'7, 2OO?. Apan from b.in8 $e youngesl cre$eht seen

duing th Fnod of study lhc ob$rvltion has anottrcr inleresing teatur. Thi5 Ms $e or y case when thc cr.eent was sccn on ft. enc cEgodm date a it N6 born ac@rding ro Patiskn sblded line. Apari ton $is record obstualion th@ are fou.
orhd clains ofyoung Moons sighling,Nov. 11.2004(22.1hours),tan.t0.2006(21.45

ho6),

June 26, 2006 (22.76 houre)

dd

Fcb. 17. 2007 (2 t .6 hous). ln

aI $eE vee 22

(21% of Ihe studied) ascs of sishdnS

daiN

when

$c .se of M@n

les rhfl l0

The obsemtion of Feb. | 7, 2007

nadc ar

fic slronomical ob*Fabry

ar rh

Instrule of Spsce cre$ent nsing

other claim

& PlanetJry Astophts'cs. Unrvcrsily ol Kr',(hr *. ,pou.a U. lhe 6' Codd Refractor TlescoF. Both rhe prcdidion crileria alto$ed
tetescope. No

crc*enr sighri.g wirboul oplical aid but wc could se rh. crscenl wi$oul

of qesenr siShring wa ac.iv.d by $ aulho ies on rhis day, Tte aulho lies acceptcd ou laim. This was $c young*r ccseft sen ar ou obseoalory d$ng lhe period ofsludy, It is a Ko.d for ou! obs.ryarory and rhc vorld recod for rhn part'culaf clescenfs eeli.st obervarion (sw,ftoonsiahlina,con dd
sv.icoprciecr.op). Our
phoroSraphic r.cord h also posred on retevanr websnes.

!95

Tlrc' seE 6

c66

when thc ag. of M@n

bciwen 24 hou's dnd 30 hous

ed

rhe crescenl

w4 not

seen. Thus,

ihis srudy also suppons th. idea that age is not a

depcndablc

l&to.

for any pEdiction crildion.

Anodier inrporbnt pdMeler concened is rhe noonFt-sun*l LAG. There are 22

occasions *hen the crescenr of lag 60 minures or less was Fen. Oul of rhese only two

*ft

wnh lag less rhan 50 hinules, Nov. l], 2004 with lag ]5 mi.urs a.d Aprit t0, 2005 Nith lsg .l,l minuts. In ihe *co.d of thcse c6es rhe prediclion (ia a o$d naked ele lisibility. There wer 15 cases when the tag sas blveen 40 and 50 minules

and bolh dic pEdic on crileria did nor altov crcscent

visibility *ilhoui optic.l aid, Tbls lh. from

n@Mr-sN4lag

alone is also not a dependabte

parametef for any prediclioh criterion. Out of 95 new Moons rhe predic on crileria

difer

$e

Babylonian clnerion (Faroonhi et al, 1999) only g

tines when

Dabylonian

crnerion (ARCL + l"Ac(in deg.ect <

lhe s-laluc cnteria do

tur

22) alto$ nalcd eye visibility but Howld, on rhese nine ccas

,{luc dd

I'r view of tn6c fads we conclude rhat bod q-vatue ed r-value cilcda arc NI suilcd predicrior cireria with r !.tue clireion delcloped in $is work has mdginalty
be cr success percenrage ibr posnive ob$ralions (chapter 4). porricutarly in viewofrh

facl dar

$cs fire.ia

do not march acrual cr.senr visibitiry onty in one

ou

95

cas
0s thc

(1.057q).nd thal @casion

cases Nhcn the cEscent

Ns

conkoversial in liew ofrhe above discussioD. Thc nve

$as seen hler tan prcdicrd aE not conside!d as an ero! skies.

probln occun

d d!. lo ore(sr

obenarional IuMrqlendar $ese Fediction

TtrGfoF, tor lhe tomulaion oa turue dreia de nidly dependable_ of of

TIE has ben only o.e occasion whd lherc mrc three co.*curivc nonrhs 29 dars elcb (during June, July and Aususl 2ooo). This is rhe ndinum fo. Fpelnion
29 days lund nondrs anticipoied

e&ly

loricentury AD by Muslims

yas, 1994a).

The li6t (Rabi ul

Awal, I42l) of$is lriphr ofnonthsbeema

day talerrhan p!.dicled

196

oftr\i'i$ lbir tNinun rcldirio! @!H ml lLv. tc.n th.Ia llxr! vt&r D frt! (diD|d) coorc.rlir.! tdt! of 30 d!y! 6d h 6b Fiod of
'lldy.

ac&noo

of

Morlly o.cN!nn8 Ep.ririon of fou 30 d.F' @d! io f'v! o! sil Afthow\ rh. kludc shd. Lsw (cb{i.! t) dlos for con .don a! lnd et o oh..wrrion idic:!. m m., bur ftr.dvmcc ptslirg nd dcv.toFEr 6tcdf m ohsE|ioo l|E .j-n/- h.!G.t d Fcdidioo diEir b{' grarty bclp. Tt AFadix-V rhosa suh r ltnr c.ldr. in qdich .oryurrioB s! bed i! Knstti d lhe +v.lu. qilai@

b.

sighio8' ca

c.r

tvl