Currencies Daily Report

Wednesday| August 7, 2013

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Reena Rohit Chief Manager Non-Agri Commodities and Currencies Reena.rohit@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6134 Anish Vyas Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Currencies Daily Report

Wednesday| August 7, 2013

Highlights
Indian Rupee touched all time low of 61.87-mark mark in yesterdays trade. US Trade Balance was at a deficit of $34.2 billion in month of June June. German Factory Orders gained by 3.8 percent in the prior month. UKs Manufacturing Production grew by 1.9 percent in month of June.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last Prev. day

as on August 6, 2013 WoW MoM YoY

NIFTY SENSEX DJIA S&P FTSE KOSPI BOVESPA NIKKEI Nymex Crude (Aug13) - $/bbl Comex Gold (Aug13) - $/oz Comex Silver(Sept13) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% - Yield

5542.3 18733.0 15518.74 1697.4 16683.2 1959.2 58497.8 14506.3 105.30 1283.20 19.71

-2.5 -2.3 -0.6 -0.6 -0.4 -1.5 0.2 0.2 -1.2 -1.5 -1.0

-3.7 -3.2 0.0 4.0 0.8 2.2 20.5 -0.1 2.2 -2.2 0.2

-5.5 -3.9 1.5 4.0 6.4 7.4 25.5 0.0 -1.1 0.2 2.9

4.9 2.4 18.3 21.7 13.8 2.0 1.3 66.3 14.2 -20.4 -29.2

Asian markets are trading lower today on the back of statement from Federal Reserve member Charles Evans that it is quite likely the central bank will pullback its stimulus measures in current year. US Trade Balance was at a deficit of $34.2 billion in June as against a earlier deficit of $44.1 billion a month ago. Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary (JOLTS) Job Openings was at 3.94 million in June from 3.83 million a month earlier. Investor's Business Daily (IBD) / TechnoMetrica Institute of Policy and Politics (TIPP) Economic Optimism fell by 2 points to 45.1-mark mark in August with respect to 47.1 47.1-level in July.

US Dollar Index
The US Dollar Index (DX) declined around 0.3 percent in yesterdays trade on the back of favorable economic data which showed signs of economic growth. However, positive economic data led to expectations that the Fed will pullback its stimulus measures coupled with rise in risk aversion in global market sentiments in later part of the trade cushioned sharp fall in the currency. Additionally, statement from Federal Reserve member Evans that there is probability of central bank cutting its stimulus measures in current year. The DX touched an intra intra-day low of 81.56 and closed at 81.66 on Tuesday.

6997.00 102.09

0.1 0.0

4.0 10.1

-10.8 4.6

-7.8 2.8

Source: Reuters

US Dollar (% change)
Last Prev. day WoW

as on August 6, 2013 MoM YoY

Dollar/INR
The Indian Rupee depreciated around 0.1 percent in yesterdays trading session. The currency depreciated preciated on the back of weak global and domestic markets coupled with strength in the DX in early part of the trade. Further, heavy dollar demand from importers also exerted downside pressure on the currency. However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned as a result of appointment of Raghuram Rajan as new governor of Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising hopes of new approach towards currency management. Additionally, , expectations that RBI will announce measures to attract foreign inflows by way of raising debt through state run banks and companies prevented evented fall in the currency. The Rupee touched an all time low of 61.866 and closed at 60.78 on Tuesday. For the month of August 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs.440.30 crores th ($72.42 million) as on 5 August 2013. Year to date basis, net capital th inflows stood at Rs.66,990.90 crores ($12,633.50 million) till 5 August 2013. Outlook From the intra-day day perspective, we expect Indian Rupee to depreciate on the back of weak global market sentiments couple coupled with strength in the DX. . Additionally, dollar demand from importers and oil firms will exert downside pressure on the currency.

Dollar Index US $ / INR (Spot) US $ / INR Aug13 Futures (NSE) US $ / INR Aug13 Futures (MCX-SX)

81.66 60.78 61.46 61.47

-0.3 0.1 0.32 0.32

-0.3 0.0 1.44 1.47

-3.7 -0.9 1.44 1.47

2.8 -9.4 10.36 10.38

Technical Chart USD/INR

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Trend US Dollar/INR Aug13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up

valid for August 7, 2013 Support 61.30/61.10 Resistance 61.90/62.20

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Currencies Daily Report

Wednesday| August 7, 2013

Euro/INR
The Euro appreciated around 0.4 percent in the yesterdays trading session on the back of weakness in the DX coupled with favorable economic data from the region. However, sharp upside in the currency was capped as result of weak global markets in later part of the trade. The Euro touched an intra-day high of 1.3323 and closed at 1.3 1.33305 against the dollar on Tuesday. Italian Industrial Production rose by 0.3 percent nt in June as against a rise of 0.1 percent a month ago. Italian Prelim Gross Domestic Product (GDP) fell by 0.2 percent in Q2 of 2013 from earlier decline of 0.6 percent in Q1 of 2013. German Factory Orders gained by 3.8 percent in June with respect to decline of 0.5 percent a month earlier. Outlook In todays session, Euro is expected to trade lower on the back of rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments coupled with strength in the DX. . However, sharp downside in the currency would be cushioned as a result of expectations of favorable German industrial production data from the region. Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR Aug13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways 81.40/81.10 81.90/82.20 valid for August 7, 2013 Support Resistance

Euro (% change)
Last Prev. day

as on August 6, 2013 WoW MoM YoY

Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR July 13 Futures (NSE) Euro / INR July13 Futures (MCX-SX)

1.3305 80.87 81.6 81.6

0.4 -0.2 0.41 0.40

0.3 -0.3 4.65 4.72

3.7 -4.7 4.65 4.72

7.3 -15.6 18.50 18.51

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Euro

Source: Telequote

GBP (% change)

as on August 6, 2013

GBP/INR
The Sterling Pound depreciated around 0.1 percent yesterday taking cues from weak global markets in later part of the trade trade. However, weakness in the DX along with upbeat global markets cushioned sharp fall in the currency. The Sterling Pound touched an intra intra-day low of 1.533 and closed at 1.5347 against dollar on Tuesday. day. UKs Halifax House Price Index (HPI) increased by 0.9 percent in July as against a rise of 0.7 percent in June. Manufacturing Production grew by 1.9 percent in June from decline of 0.7 percent a month ago. Industrial Production increased by 1.1 percent in the month of June. Outlook We expect Sterling Pound to trade lower on the back of weak global markets coupled with stronger DX. . However, sharp downside will be prevented or reversal can be seen on account of any major announcement from Governor of the country or inflation report report. Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR Aug 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways valid for August 7, 2013 Support 94.20/93.90 Resistance 94.80/95.10

Last

Prev. day

WoW

MoM

YoY

$ / GBP (Spot) GBP / INR (Spot) GBP / INR July13 Futures (NSE) GBP / INR July 13 Futures (MCX-SX)

1.5347 94.35

-0.07 0.07 0.37 -

0.7 -

3.1

-1.7 9.11

3.99

3.99

94.39

0.37

4.06

4.06

9.18

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Sterling Pound

Source: Telequote

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Currencies Daily Report

Wednesday| August 7, 2013

JPY/INR
The Japanese Yen appreciated around 0.6 percent in the yesterdays trade on account rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments which led to rise in demand for the currency. The Yen touched an intraday high of 97.51 and closed at 97.74 against dollar on Tuesday. Outlook Fall in Japanese equities will lead to increase ease in demand for the Yen. On the back of this, we expect the Yen to appreciate in todays trading session. Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR Aug 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways valid for August 7, 2013 Support 62.50/62.20 Resistance 63.0/63.30

JPY (% change)
Last Prev day

as on August 6, 2013 WoW MoM YoY

JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR July13 Futures (NSE) JPY 100 / INR July13 Futures (MCX-SX)

97.74
62.62 62.63 -

-0.6

-0.3
-

-3.4
3.38 3.41

24.4
-10.12 -10.14

0.69 0.65

3.38 3.41

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart JPY

Source: Telequote

Economic Indicators to be released on August 7 7, 2013

Indicator Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact

BOE Gov Carney Speaks BOE Inflation Report German Industrial Production m/m Crude Oil Inventories 10-y Bond Auction

UK UK Euro US US

3:00pm 3:00pm 3:30pm 8:00pm 10:30pm

0.3% -

-1.0% 0.4M 2.67/2.6

High High Medium Medium Medium

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