Currencies Daily Report

Monday| August 5, 2013

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Reena Rohit Chief Manager Non-Agri Commodities and Currencies Reena.rohit@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6134 Anish Vyas Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Currencies Daily Report

Monday| August 5, 2013

Highlights
US Unemployment Rate fell to 7.4 percent in the month of July13. Spanish Unemployment Change declined by 64,900 in the last month. UK Construction PMI rose to 57-mark mark in the previous month. Asian equities are trading on a mixed note today but over the trade we expect sentiments to improve as major economic indicators today are likely to come on the positive side. While US jobs data missed market expectations, the fall in unemployment rate to 7.4 percent in July13 is a positive indicator and is also a point which could draw the Federal Reserve closer to the winding of its stimulus program. US Non-Farm Farm Employment Change grew at slow pace of 162,000 in July as against a rise of 188,000 in June. . Unemployment Rate fell to 7.4 percent in July from rise of 7.6 percent in June. Personal Income was at 0.3 percent in June when compared to 0.4 percent a month earlier. Personal Spending rose by 0.5 percent in June from 0.2 percent in prior month. Factory ory Orders grew at slow pace of 1.5 percent in June with respect to rise of 3 percent in previous month. Chinas Non-Manufacturing Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose by 0.2 points to 54.1-mark mark in July as against a rise of 53.9 53.9-level a month ago.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last Prev. day

as on August 2, 2013 WoW MoM YoY

NIFTY SENSEX DJIA S&P FTSE KOSPI BOVESPA NIKKEI Nymex Crude (Aug13) - $/bbl Comex Gold (Aug13) - $/oz Comex Silver(Sept13) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% - Yield

5677.9 19164.0 15658.36 1709.7 16779.2 1959.2 58497.8 14506.3 106.94 1310.60 19.62

-0.9 -0.8 0.2 0.2 -0.2 -1.5 0.2 0.2 -0.9 0.0 0.0

-3.5 -3.0 0.6 5.9 2.2 2.5 18.4 -0.1 2.1 -1.3 -0.8

-1.6 -0.1 2.8 5.9 6.3 7.8 29.8 0.6 3.7 5.2 3.1

8.6 4.8 21.6 25.3 18.8 2.0 2.2 66.3 22.7 -17.4 -27.3

7007.00 102.09

0.2 0.0

2.2 9.4

-10.7 4.6

-5.6 2.7

US Dollar Index
The US Dollar Index (DX) increased around 0.3 percent last week on the back of favorable economic data which showed signs of economic growth, thereby leading to expectations that the Fed will pullback its stimulus measures. However, rise in risk k appetite in global market sentiments capped sharp gains in the currency. The DX touched a weekly high of 82.61 and closed at 81.978 on Friday.

Source: Reuters

US Dollar (% change)
Last Prev. day WoW

as on August 2, 2013 MoM YoY

Dollar Index US $ / INR (Spot) US $ / INR Aug13 Futures (NSE) US $ / INR Aug13 Futures (MCX-SX)

81.98 61.09 61.45 61.45

-0.5 -0.9 1.17 1.19

0.3 -3.5 2.58 2.61

-3.2 -1.5 2.58 2.61

3.2 -8.7 9.51 9.50

Dollar/INR
On a weekly basis, the Indian Rupee depreciated around 3.5 percent. The currency depreciated on the back of worries that central bank measures may not be sufficient to control volatility in the currency. Further, DX strength and weak domestic markets exerted pressure. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) tightened rules to defend weakness in the Rupee by announcing that foreign institutional investors will require a mandate from promissory note holders to hedge on their behalf. The Rupee touched a weekly low of 61.185 and closed at 61.09 on Fri Friday. For the month of August 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs.458.20 crores nd ($78.26 million) as on 2 August 2013. Year to date basis, net capital 2nd inflows stood at Rs.66,550.60 crores ($12,561million) till August 2013. Outlook Trend in the Rupee is expected to be largely bearish as domestic fundamentals remain weak and point towards depreciation in the currency. However, sharp losses in the Rupee could be prevented due to Dollar Weakness.

Technical Chart USD/INR

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Trend US Dollar/INR Aug13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up

valid for August 5, 2013 Support 61.10/60.90 Resistance 61.60/61.80

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Currencies Daily Report

Monday| August 5, 2013

Euro/INR
The Euro traded on a flat note and gained marginally in the last week on the back of upbeat global markets coupled with favorable economic data from the region. However, sharp upside in the currency was capped on account of strength in the DX. The Euro touched a w weekly high of 1.3344 and closed at 1.3281 against the dollar on Friday Friday. Spanish Unemployment Change declined by 64,900 in July from earlier fall of 127,200 a month ago. Outlook The Euro is expected to trade on a positive note to expected upbeat economic c data from the Euro Zone today. While retail sales in the Euro Zone are expected to show a fall, the services PMI of Spain and Italy is expected to show a rise. Euro Zone investor confidence is also expected to improve and this factor will support gains in n the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR Aug13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways 80.60/80.80 81.30/81.60 valid for August 5, 2013 Support Resistance

Euro (% change)
Last Prev. day

as on August 2, 2013 WoW MoM YoY

Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR July 13 Futures (NSE) Euro / INR July13 Futures (MCX-SX)

1.3281 81.13 81.2 81.2

0.6 -1.5 0.96 0.97

0.0 -3.5 4.06 4.06

2.1 -3.6 4.06 4.06

7.2 -14.9 18.13 18.15

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Euro

GBP/INR
Source: Telequote

On a weekly basis, The Sterling Pound depreciated around 0.6 percent taking cues from stronger DX. However, upbeat global market sentiments along with favorable economic data from the country cushioned sharp fall in the currency. The Sterling Pound touched a weekly low of 1.5101 and closed at t 1.5287 against dollar on Friday. UKs Nationwide House Price Index (HPI) rose by 0.8 percent in July as against a rise of 0.3 percent in June. Construction Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose by 6 points to 57-mark mark in July from earlier rise of 51 51level a month ago. Outlook Expected rise in the UK Services PMI will support gains in the currency and weakness in the Dollar Index will additionally support upside. Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR Aug 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways valid for August 5, 2013 Support 92.60/92.80 Resistance 93.30/93.60

GBP (% change)

as on August 2, 2013

Last

Prev. day

WoW

MoM

YoY

$ / GBP (Spot) GBP / INR (Spot) GBP / INR July13 Futures (NSE) GBP / INR July 13 Futures (MCX-SX)

1.5287 93.416 93.17

1.12 2.23 0.64

-0.6 2.83 2.47

0.1 3.53 2.47

-2.3 7.79 6.77

93.18

0.63

2.55

2.55

6.79

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Sterling Pound

Source: Telequote

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Currencies Daily Report

Monday| August 5, 2013

JPY/INR
The Japanese Yen depreciated around 0.7 percent in the last week on account rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments which led to fall in demand for the currency. The Yen touched a weekly low of 99.94 and closed at 98.93 against dollar on Friday. Outlook Fall in Japanese equities will lead to increase in demand for the Yen. On the back of this, we expect the Yen to appreciate in todays trading session. Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR Aug 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways valid for August 5, 2013 Support 61.10/61.30 Resistance 61.70/61.90

JPY (% change)
Last 98.93 0.617 61.57 61.55 Prev day -0.6 0.6079 0.10 0.06

as on August 2, 2013 WoW 0.7 0.6008 2.58 2.62 MoM -1.0 0.590 2.58 2.62 YoY 26.1 0.7139 -14.16 -14.16

JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR July13 Futures (NSE) JPY 100 / INR July13 Futures (MCX-SX)

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart JPY

Source: Telequote

Economic Indicators to be released on August 5, 2013

Indicator Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact
th th

Halifax HPI m/m Spanish Services PMI Italian Services PMI Services PMI Retail Sales m/m ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

UK Euro Euro UK Euro US

5 -7

0.3% 48.4 46.6 57.4 -0.6% 53.2

0.6% 47.8 45.8 56.9 1% 52.2

Medium Medium Medium High Medium High

12:45pm 1:15pm 2:00pm 2:30pm 7:30pm

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