Commodities Evening Update

Monday | August 5, 2013

International Commodities

Content
Days overview Market Highlights Outlook Important Events for Today

Research Team
Reena Rohit Chief Manager Non-Agri Commodities and Currencies Reena.rohit@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6134 Anish Vyas Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Commodities Evening Update

Monday | August 5, 2013

International Commodities
News and Analysis Precious metals, base metals and crude oil trade lower despite positive Euro Zone data. Euro Zone Services PMI rises in July13. US Non-Manufatcuring PMI to show a rise today. The week has begun on a negative note for precious metals, base metals and crude oil. All major commodities are trading in the negative territory despite positive economic data from the Euro Zone. Although US ISM Non-Manufatcuring PMI is expected to show a rise, prices may not witness a sharp rebound as fall in prices even after positive economic releases shows that markets are concerned about the possibility of Feds actions as the US economy witnessed decent growth in the second-quarter and as the unemployment rate fell to 7.4 percent. Data showed that Euro Zone, Spanish and Italian Services PMI increased in July13 and the Euro Area Sentix Investor Sentiment also showed an improvement, thus indicating that the European economies, although at a slow pace are finally witnessing a recovery. Spot Gold and Comex Gold prices are trading in the red despite weakness in the Dollar Index. Simultaneously, European equities witnessed an upbeat session on the back of strong economic data. Hence, sentiments towards precious metals became bearish, as investors showed disinterest in precious metals despite a weaker Dollar. In the Indian markets, prices of Gold and Silver near-month contract on the MCX traded in the red and Rupee appreciation acted as an additional factor for downside in prices. The base metals complex is largely trading lower on the LME, with copper prices falling 0.5 percent. During the trade, LME copper prices touched a high of $7023/tonne, but the red metal could not sustain around these levels and this indicates that investors are wary of economic prospects, with demand concerns concentrated in China. Appreciation in the Rupee further supported decline in prices on the MCX. Crude oil prices on the Nymex slipped from an intra-day high of $107.69/bbl and are trading around 0.6 percent lower today. The opening up of Libyan oil export terminal reduced supply-side fears from the country. However, sharp decline in prices is not likely as Saudi Arabia has indicated that the country will not increase production as planned before, as US production is rising sharply and as demand is also slowing. The inventory picture during the week will set the trend for prices in the near-term. On the MCX, the near-month crude oil contract declined 0.2 percent and prices are currently trading around Rs6510/bbl. Performance during the day
Index Nifty Sensex Nikkei Kospi FTSE Open High

as at 4.30 pm 5 August 13
Low Last % Chg from Prev day

5682.40 19178.06 14318.21 1920.83 16786.80

5721.00 19306.51 14370.98 1925.60 16844.71

5661.50 19141.68 14225.50 1915.69 16733.83

5685.40 19182.26 14258.04 1916.22 16733.83

0.13 0.10 -1.44 -0.37 -0.23

Source: Reuters

as at 4.30 pm 5 August 13
Currency Dollar Index Euro/$ Spot INR/$ Spot Open High Low Current % Chg from Prev day

82.01 1.3273 61.02

82.12 1.33 61.02

81.81 1.3262 60.715

81.95 1.3269 60.92

-0.03 -0.09 -0.28

Source: Reuters

as at 4.30 pm 5 August 13
Commodity Spot Gold Comex Gold Aug13 MCX Gold Oct13 Spot Silver Comex Silver Sept13 MCX Silver Sept13 Crude Oil Nymex Aug 13 ICE -Brent Crude Oil MCX Crude Oil Aug 13 Copper LME - 3 Month MCX Copper Aug13 Zinc LME - 3 Month Zinc MCX - Aug13 Lead LME - 3 Month Lead MCX - Aug13 Nickel LME - 3 Month Nickel MCX Aug13 Aluminum LME - 3 Month Aluminum MCX Aug13 Unit Open High Low Last % Chg from Prev day

$/oz $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz $/oz

1312.49 1311.20 28598.00 19.89 0.1978 42061 106.84 109.09 6532 7019.50 427.80 1871.75 113.00 2115 128.75 13917 849.10 1815.00 108.90

1319.30 1318.30 28630.0 20.00 0.1978 42223 107.69 109.44 6560 7023.00 428.20 1881.50 113.50 2134 130.20 14011 856.40 1815.75 109.20

1309.09 1309.40 28300.0 19.75 0.1978 41820 106.01 107.95 6478 6950.00 425.00 1861.00 112.50 2111 128.60 13901 847.00 1797.50 108.10

1310.06 1310.10 28400.00 19.78 0.1978 41898 106.32 108.26 6510 6974.00 427.10 1861.00 112.85 2126 129.80 13962 855.60 1805.75 109.00

-0.11 -0.04 -0.27 -0.60 -0.62 -0.17 -0.58 -0.63 -0.20 -0.47 -0.26 -0.35 -0.27 0.54 0.66 -0.10 0.55 -0.45 -0.23

Rs/kg $/bbl

$/bbl Rs/bbl $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne

Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg

Source: Reuters

Commodities Evening Update

Monday | August 5, 2013

International Commodities
Outlook Decline in prices despite positive European Services PMI and expected upbeat US Non-Manufacturing PMI, precious metals, base metals and crude oil are trading lower. This indicates that the decline in US unemployment rate along with a positive secondquarter GDP report has set in expectations that the Fed will begin its QE tapering in the coming months. On the back of this, we expect a range bound to negative trade in todays trade in case of precious metals, base metals and crude oil. Additionally, appreciation in the Rupee will keep a check on rise in prices on the MCX.

Technical Outook for evening session 5 August 13 ( CMP as of 4.30 pm)

Commodity Gold Oct'13 Spot Gold Silver Sept13 Spot Silver Crude Oil Aug13 Nymex Crude Oil Aug13 Natural Gas Aug13 LME Copper Copper Aug13 Zinc Aug13 Lead Aug13 Aluminum Aug13 Nickel Aug13 Unit Rs/10 gm $/oz Rs /kg $/oz Rs /bbl $/bbl Rs /mmBtu $/tonne Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Support 2 27780 1291 41300 19.36 6410 105 200 6850 422 111.4 127.5 107.4 840 Support 1 27930 1305 41550 19.74 6460 105.95 202 6930 425 112.3 128.5 108.2 847 CMP 28026 1310.4 41900 19.83 6510 106.51 205 6984 427.05 112.9 129.75 109.05 855.1 Resistance1 28180 1326 42350 20.38 6560 107.7 207 7050 431 113.6 130.8 109.8 862 Resistance 2 28300 1340 42700 20.84 6620 108.5 210 7100 434 114.4 132 110.5 871

Important Events for Today

Indicator Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact

Halifax HPI m/m Spanish Services PMI Italian Services PMI Services PMI Retail Sales m/m ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

UK Euro Euro UK Euro US

5 -7 12:45pm 1:15pm 2:00pm 2:30pm 7:30pm

th

th

48.5 48.7 60.2 -0.5% -

0.3% 48.4 46.6 57.4 -0.6% 53.2

0.6% 47.8 45.8 56.9 1% 52.2

Medium Medium Medium High Medium High