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Psychol Res (1992) 54:51- 59

Springer-Verlag 1992

PsychologischeForschung

Psycho gical Research

Asymmetry of perceived key movement in chorale sequences: Converging evidence from a probe-tone analysis
Lola L. Cuddy 1 and William F. Thompson 2
I Department of Psychology, Queen's University at Kingston, Ontario, Canada K7L 3N6 2 Department of Psychology, Atkinson College, York University, North York, Ontario, Canada M3J IP3 Received March 27, 199 l/Accepted June 19, 1991

Summary. In a probe-tone experiment, two groups of listeners - one trained, the other untrained, in traditional music theory - rated the goodness of fit of each of the 12 notes of the chromatic scale to four-voice harmonic sequences. Sequences were 12 simplified excerpts from Bach chorales, 4 nonmodulating, and 8 modulating. Modulations occurred either one or two steps in either the clockwise or the counterclockwise direction on the cycle of fifths. A consistent pattern of probe-tone ratings was obtained for each sequence, with no significant differences between listener groups. Two methods of analysis (Fourier analysis and regression analysis) revealed a directional asymmetry in the perceived key movement conveyed by modulating sequences. For a given modulation distance, modulations in the counterclockwise direction effected a clearer shift in tonal organization toward the final key than did clockwise modulations. The nature of the directional asymmetry was consistent with results reported for identification and rating of key change in the sequences (Thompson & Cuddy, 1989a). Further, according to the multipleregression analysis, probe-tone ratings did not merely reflect the distribution of tones in the sequence. Rather, ratings were sensitive to the temporal structure of the tonal organization in the sequence.

1988; Krumhansl, 1990a). Music contains a variety of (partially redundant) sources of information about key structure. In the present paper, we are concerned with the information conveyed by chord progressions in the establishment of a sense of key and key change. In listening to a piece of music, a listener may have the sense that the music belongs to a single key, or, alternatively, that the music shifts among keys, creating a sense of key movement. Moreover, key movement may be perceived to be slight, or quite considerable. These notions may be more formally described in terms of a spatial representation called the cycle offifths. Figure 1 shows the cycle for the relationship among major keys. (Minor keys may be similarly represented in a circular array.) Note - names on the cycle refer to the key (tonic) notes of the 12 major keys. Neighboring keys on the cycle share all but one note of their respective diatonic scales. The interval between neighboring tonic notes is a musical fifth (fundamental frequency ratio 3:2). Figure 1 also contains traditional Roman numeral codes for the five key relationships studied in the present paper. The code is oriented for the tonic note C, which is notated I. Neighboring tonic notes are coded in terms of their scale function within the key of C. The keys one and two steps clockwise on the cycle are notated V (called the dominant) and II (called the supertonic), respectively. The keys one and two steps counterclockwise are notated IV (called the subdominant) and VII b (called theflattened seventh), respectively.

Introduction

Studies of sensitivity to musical key can inform theoretical approaches to the description of perceptual structures for Western harmonic music. Identification of musical key involves the abstraction of hierarchically organized relationships among the elements of music. These hierarchies reflect the relative importance and stability of the tones and chords in a musical context, and, in turn, guide the organization of temporal information (Bharucha, 1984; Lerdahl,

C B ~ / A ~ D E~/D# ~k A~/G# D
~ )A E Fig. 1. The cycle of fifths for the 12 major keys. The Roman numeral codes refer to the key relationships studied in the experiment, mid are oriented to the tonic of C major.

Offprint requests to: L. L. Cuddy or W. F. Thompson

CYCLE

OFFIFTHS

52 Music theorists have traditionally described the distance between keys in terms of spatial distance on the cycle of fifths. Movement from one key to another, called modulation, may thus be described as "near," "far," and so forth, depending on the number of steps traversed along the cycle. The psychological reality of this spatial representation of key distance has been demonstrated through empirical research (e. g., Cohen, 1991; Krumhansl & Kessler, 1982). Elaborated models of key relationships - to account, for example, for relationships between major and minor keys - have been developed, as well (for a review, see Krumhansl, 1990a). But all spatial models are limited in that they cannot portray temporal-order effects (Krumhansl, 1990a, 1991). Perceived key distance may depend, not merely on the number of steps between keys, but on the order in which the steps were traversed, i.e., the direction taken on the cycle of fifths. This possibility is the motivation for the present study. Recently we reported a study of sensitivity to key change in short sequences adapted from Bach chorales (Thompson & Cuddy, 1989 a). The chorales were selected as representative of a well-defined compositional style in which to exanaine recognition of nmsical key and key change in both melody and harmony. Sequences were simplified versions of phrases in major keys that (i) did not modulate, (ii) modulated one step on the cycle of fifths, or (iii) modulated two steps on the cycle of fifths. Modulations occurred in either direction on the cycle of fifths - either clockwise or counterclockwise. Simplification involved the removal of passing notes and ornamentation so that all sequences contained eight block chords. In the first experiment in Thompson and Cuddy (1989 a), musically trained listeners were asked to identify the distance and direction of key change with respect to the cycle of fifths. In the second experiment, listeners with no formal training in traditional music theory were asked to rate the perceived extent of key change on a 7-point scale. In both experiments, two groups of listeners were tested. For one group, the stinmlus materials were four-voice harmonic presentations of the sequences; for the other, the stimulus materials were the single voices contained in the sequences. There were two main findings. The first finding applied both to four-voice harmonic presentations of the sequences and to the single voices contained in the sequences. Perceptual judgments of modulation distance, averaged across modulation direction, were consistent with theoretical distance on the cycle of fifths. Listeners judged modulation distance for four-voice and for single-voice presentations with approximately equal ease. The second finding applied consistently to four-voice harmony only, and emerged when the direction of modulation was taken into account. Judgments for sequences modulating the same (absolute) number of steps on the cycle of fifths contained a directional asymmetry. Greater distance was associated with modulation in the counterclockwise, rather than the clockwise, direction. The greater distance associated with counterclockwise movement was accompanied by superior identification of both distance and direction of key change (Thompson & Cuddy, 1989a, Experiment 1). Thus, the results suggest that modulations in the counterclockwise direction effected a clearer shift in tonal organization away from the initial key toward the final key. Music theorists (e.g., Hopkins, 1979; Rosen, 1971; Werts, 1983) have noted that music in the classical style contains a directional asymmetry analogous to the finding reported above. It has been suggested that clockwise modulations are more frequently implemented than counterclockwise modulations, and are also more expected (Rosen, 1971). However, as a preliminary to theoretical speculation about the processes responsible for the psychological basis for directional asymmetry, the present study sought converging evidence for the effect. It used the probe-tone technique to assess the degree of temporal shift in tonal organization effected by modulation. The procedm'e was first outlined by Krumhansl and Shepard (1979) and later elaborated by Krumhansl and Kessler (1982) and others (for a review see Krumhansl, 1990 a). The probe-tone technique has listeners rate the fit of each of the 12 notes of the chromatic scale to a musical context. Each of the 12 notes is called a "probe tone," and the set of 12 ratings, one for each probe tone, is called the "probe-tone profile." It has been demonstrated experimentally that probe-tone profiles recovered from both major and harmonic minor contexts (tonic chords and chord cadences) contain a hierarchical organization of tonal stability (Ka'umhansl & Kessler, 1982, Experiment 1). For both contexts, highest ratings were assigned to the tonic note; the tonic note was followed, in order, by the other two notes of the tonic triad, the remaining four notes of the scale, and, finally, the five nonscale notes. Krnmhansl and Kessler (1982) averaged the data obtained from several major-key contexts to form the standardized tonal hierarchy for the major key. A similar procedure yielded the standardized tonal hierarchy for the minor key. Each standardized profile reflected a common response strategy that was stable and consistent. Intersubject correlations on the profiles entered into each standardized profile were significant and the profiles entered into the standardized profile were highly intercorrelated (Krumhansl & Kessler, 1982, pp. 342-343). In addition, Krumhansl and Kessler (1982, Experiment 2) obtained probe-tone profiles for each successive chord position in both nonmodulating and modulating sequences of nine chords. Two separate correlational analyses were conducted and compared. First, the profile obtained for each chord position was con'elated with the standardized tonal hierarchy for the intended key or keys of the sequence, and correlations were traced across the nine serial positions of each sequence (Kxumhansl & Kessler, 1982, Fig. 8). For nonmodulating sequences, the correlations traced the establishment of the intended key. For modulating sequences, the correlations traced the establishment and subsequent decline of the initial key, with the decline of the initial key overlapping the gradual establishment of the final key. Thus, this correlational analysis produced a temporal mapping of the development and change of the sense of key. Second, the profile for each chord position was replaced by the profile for that chord presented in isolation, and correlated with the standardized tonal hierarchy for the

53

intended key or keys of the sequence. Krumhansl and Kessler (1982) argued that a comparison of the results of the first correlational analysis with the results of the second allows the influence of the intended key or keys to be separated from local chord effects. From this comparison, they concluded that there were, in fact, three sources of structure present in the profiles obtained for each chord position: the chord immediately preceding the presentation of the probe tone; the prevailing key; and, if modulation had occurred, the key prior to the prevailing key. They also noted parallels between the results of their data analysis and the theoretical views of Heinrich Schenker (1935/1979, 1906/1954-). The analysis conducted by Krumhansl and Kessler (1982, Experiment 2) illustrates an important aspect of the probe-tone technique: it is statistically feasible to identify interpretable sources of variance in rating profiles. Sources of variance can also be isolated through regression analysis (Krumhansl & Schmuckler, 1986 a). Because multiple-regression techniques provide a means of quantifying the relative contributions of interrelated variables (as well as their collective effect), they are useful in evaluating and comparing different, but partially overlapping, musical influences on listeners' probe-tone judgments. Recently, Butler (1989, 1990) has published commentaries on the probe-tone methodology, in which he criticized the probe-tone measure as unidimensional and vague. He has argued that because listeners are free to set criteria for judgment in the probe-tone procedure, results are not likely to be informative. Despite these remarks, Butler (1989, t990) has described reliable correspondences between probe-tone profiles obtained from key-defining contexts and the frequency distributions of tones in the contexts. These correspondences were, however, anticipated by Krumhansl (1987), who examined correspondences between distributional patterns of tones in Western tonal compositions and the standardized profiles. The correspondences portray relations between two "statistical summaries" - one of music, the other of psychological data - and may "suggest a mechanism through which principles of musical organization are learned" (Krumhansl, 1990b, pp. 315-316). Listeners are sensitive to the immediate pitch regularities present in musical surfaces (Castellano, Bharucha, & Krumhansl, 1984; Kessler, Hansen, & Shepard, 1984; Krumhansl & Schmuckler, 1986a; Oram, 1989; Oram & Cuddy, 1989). With repeated exposure to a consistent musical idiom, listeners internalize these regularities and the response to immediate contexts may be influenced by the internal representations (Krumhansl,

1990a, 1990b). 1 Part of the variance shared between distributional patterns of tonal music and listeners' probe-tone profiles may therefore be attributed to a common sourcelong-term knowledge of musical regularities. This knowledge is intuitively applied both in the processes of musical composition and in the processes of musical perception. Thus, in our experiment, we expected to find correspondences between distributional patterns of tones in the contexts and the probe-tone profiles recovered from the contexts. The main purpose of the experiment, however, did not concern these correspondences. 2 For present purposes, the most important question was whether profiles reflected only the distribution of tones in musical contexts or whether they also reflected listeners' sensitivity to temporal order of keys. To demonstrate converging evidence of the directional asymmetry reported in our earlier work, information about temporal influences must be recovered from the profiles. The success of Krumhansl and Kessler (1982) in recovering such information from probe-tone profiles motivated the present approach. We collected probe-tone profiles for four-voice presentations of each of the chorale sequences tested by Thompson and Cuddy (1989 a). Probe-tone ratings were obtained following the last chord of the sequence, i.e., at the same point in time at which identification and rating responses had been obtained in the earlier experiments. For each sequence, correlations were conducted between the ratings obtained and the ratings representing the standardized tonal hierarchy for the key or keys theoretically deemed present in the sequence. In particular, profiles for modulating sequences were examined for differences in the presence of the standardized tonal hierarchy for the initial and the final key. To be convergent with our earlier results, profiles collected for modulations in the counterclockwise direction should yield an unambiguous structure representing the final key. Profiles collected for modulations in the clockwise direction should yield a structure representing a mixture of both the initial and the final key.

Method
Listeners. Twenty listeners, 19-40 years of age, were recruited10 musically trained and l 0 untrained. The trained listeners had received musical instruction at university level or above, with at least 10 years of private instruction on an instrument and at least 2 years of instruction in traditional music theory. Most untrained listeners reported listening to classical music regularly. None had formal training in traditional music theory. All listeners reported normal hearing. Apparatus and stimuli. Tones were produced by a DMX-1000 real-time digital synthesizer, controlled by an LSI 11/23 computer. All tones contained the first five harmonic partials (the fundamental or f, 2f, 3f, 4f, and 5f), with the amplitude of each partial inversely proportional to the partial number. Frequency values for the fundamentals were determined according to the system of equal temperament with A4 = 440 Hz. Tones were combined to form chords, with the output level contoured so that the chords were of approximately equal loudness. These contour values were obtained from the average of equaMoudness judgments provided for the purpose by several experienced listeners. Each chord was 350 ms in duration and had rise and decay times of 22 ms each. In addition, a set of 12 probe tones was constructed, corresponding to the set of 12 notes of the chromatic scale. Each probe tone was a complex

Kmmhansl (1990b) notes that the correlations among the obtained profiles derived from different key contexts in Krumhansl and Kessler (1982) were substantially higher than correlations among the stimulus profiles for those contexts. The convergence among the obtained profiles suggests that they are influenced by a common factor in addition to (or instead of) the information in the stimulus profile. This common factor may be the long-term stable representation of tonal structure. 2 Issues concerning the correspondences have been discussed by Parncutt (1989), Thompson (1988), and Thompson and Parncutt (1988).

54

10

11

Fig. 2. Sequences used in the ex12 periments. These were simplified excerpts from the set of Bach Chorales (Leuchter, 1968).

Table 1. Modulation conditions represented in Figure 2. Sequence Nos. 1, 2 3, 4 5, 6 7, 8 9, l0 11, 12 Condition Description

NM(I) NM(V) M(V) M(IV) M(II) M(VIIb)

Nonmodulating ending on the tonic chord Nonmodulating ending on the dominant chord Modulating one step clockwise to the key of the dominant Modulating one step counterclockwise to the key of the subdominant Modulating two steps clockwise to the key of the supertonic Modulating two steps counterclockwise to the key of the flattened seventh

containing nine components-nine octave equivalents of a single tone. Each of these components had the same spectrum (i. e., five partials) as the individual tones of the chord sequences. Fundamental frequencies for the nine components ranged from A0 to A9. The amplitude of each fundamental and of each partial was determined by a Gaussian loudness envelope placed over the entire complex. Probe tones were 1 s in duration. Listeners were tested in soundproof booths. Stimuli were delivered binaurally through Sennheiser headphones (HDH 424), and responses were entered on the keyboard of a computer terminal.

Chorale sequences. The sequences were simplified excerpts from the Bach chorales (Leuchter, 1968). The original sources are listed in Thompson and Cuddy (1989 a). The excerpts were selected to provide two examples of each of six modulation conditions, defined according to traditional music-theoretic conventions (e. g., Piston, 1978). In two conditions, excerpts did not modulate: sequences ended on the tonic chord in one condition, and the dominant chord in the other condition. In four conditions, excerpts contained a modulation. These four conditions represented modulations of one or two steps in either the clockwise or the counterclockwise direction on the cycle of fifths, with each combination of step size and direction equally represented. After the initial selection, each chorale excerpt was simplified to a sequence of eight chords with no ornamental or passing tones. The simplification preserved the key and key-change of the original excerpt. Figure 2 [from Thompson and Cuddy (1989 a)] shows each of the 12 sequences in musical notation. The accompanying table, Table 1, names the six modulation conditions and describes the modulation condition for each sequence in Figure 2. Procedure. Before the experimental session began, each listener was allowed to adjust the average SPL to a comfortable listening level within the range 65 to 75 dB SPL. The listener was then presented with 5 practice trials followed by 12 blocks of experimental trials. Practice trials were selected randomly from the experimental trials. A block of experimental trials consisted of 12 presentations of a sequence randomly selected from Figure 1. Each presentation was paired with one of the 12 probe tones. Each sequence was presented exactly as notated, i.e., without further transposition, so that the absolute frequency location of the key or keys of the sequences varied unpredictably from block to block.

55 Table 2. Mean probe-tone ratings for six modulation conditions. Condition Probe tone
! 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

10 4.0 3.4 3.9 4.0 5.0 3.1

11 3.2 2.9 3.2 3.8 3.2 ~0

12 3.0 3.1 3.8 2.5 4.0 3.0

NM(I) NM(V) M(V) M(IV) M(II) M(VIIb)

6.4 5.9 5.8 5.6 4.6 5.6

2.7 2.9 2.6 3.2 3.0 4.0

4.2 4.2 4.5 3.9

6.1 4.4

3.6 3.5 2.9 3.1 3.5 4.8

4.4 3.9 4.0 3.6 4.3 3.5

4.3 4.0 3.6

6.2 3.8 5.0

2.6 2.5 3.0 2.6 4.3 3.3

5.1 5.7 ~3 4.5 5.2 4.6

3.2 2.6 3.0 3.0 2.7 3.0

Note: Ratings have been transposed so that Probe Tone 1 corresponds to the tonic of the initial key of each sequence. The tonic of the final key of modulating sequences is in italics.

Each trial within a block began with a melodic pattern of five notes of equal duration. It was intended to give the listener a strong sense of the initial key. The pattern was the tonic triad of the initial key of the sequence, and consisted of the tonic, the tonic one octave above the first tone, the mediant, the dominant, and the tonic two octaves above the first tone. Next, the sequence was presented, followed by a pause of 500 ms, and then followed by a probe tone. For each listener, the order of blocks (sequences) and the order of probe tones within blocks was independently randomized without replacement. Listeners were asked to ]ratehow well the probe tone fit the sequence in a musical sense on a scale of 1 ("very poorly") to 7 ("very well"). Listeners were informed that there were no right or wrong answers and were asked to try to use the entire range of the response scale.

tone representing the tonic of the final key in conditions involving modulation. The data were subjected to three statistical a n a l y s e s analysis of variance, Fourier analysis, and multiple regression.

Analysis of variance
An analysis of variance of the data summarized in Table 2 revealed a significant main effect of probe-tone position, F (11,198) = 37.59, p <.0001, and a significant interaction between modulation condition and probe-tone position, F (55, 990) = 9.93, p <.0001. These statistical results indicate a high degree of agreement among listeners in assigning probe-tone ratings. Moreover, they suggest that certain probe tones were reliably judged as providing a better fit to the context than were others. Separate analyses conducted on the data for nonmodulating sequences showed three significant orthogonal contrasts. These contrasts involved the levels of the tonal hierarchy for the key of the sequence. For sequences of nonmodulating condition NM(I), the tonic note was rated higher than the other notes of the tonic triad, F (1,18) = 83.66, p <.0001; the notes of the triad were rated higher than the other notes of the scale, F (1,18) = 50.97, p <.0001; and scale notes were rated higher than nonscale notes, F (1,18) = 38.96, p <.0001. For sequences of nonmodulating condition NM(V), the tonic note was also rated higher than the other notes of the tonic triad, F (1,18) = 7.82, p <.02; the notes of the triad were rated higher than the other notes of the scale, F (1,18) = 45.53, p <.0001 ; and scale notes were rated higher than nonscale notes, F (1,18) = 33.13, p <.0005.

Results

A preliminary analysis revealed no systematic differences between the two groups of listeners, musically trained and untrained, or between the two examples of each modulation condition. For the 12 sequences of Figure 2, the average correlation between probe-tone ratings for the two listener groups was .84, range .71 to .90, all p <.005. For the six modulation conditions, the average correlation between probe-tone ratings for the two examples of each condition was .91, range .86 to .94, again all p <.005. Consequently, data will be presented averaged across listener groups and examples. Mean ratings for each probe tone for each of the six modulation conditions are given in Table 2, in which the probe-tone positions axe coded as follows: for conditions containing nonmodulating sequences, the tonic of the key of each sequence was coded Probe Tone 1; the remaining 11 probe-tone positions, Probe Tones 2 to 12, represent successive chromatic steps from the tonic. For conditions containing modulating sequences, the tonic of the initial key of each sequence was coded Probe Tone 1, and the remaining 11 probe-tone positions represent successive chromatic steps from the initial tonic. The code employed in Table 2 is equivalent to transposing the probe-tone profiles so that the initial key was always C major, and probetone position from 1 to 12 was C, C#, D, D#, E, F, F#, G, G#, A, A#, and B. For conditions containing modulating sequences, the mean rating given to the tonic of the final key is in italics. Note, in Table 2, that high ratings are assigned to Probe Tone 1 in all conditions, and to the probe

Fourier analysis
A Fourier analysis of the probe-tone ratings was conducted to estimate the strength of the keys represented in the probe-tone profiles collected for modulating sequences. The analysis estimated key strength with respect to the map of interkey distances derived by Krumhansl and Kessler (1982), who used multidimensional scaling procedures to analyze the pattern of correlations between the standardized profiles for all 24 major and minor keys. The analysis

56 eb/d# F# f# Db/c# c# E g# B eb/d# F# f# b


M(ll)

b D d A a

g M(VII b) eBb bb

eb/d#

F M(IV) Co NM(I)

Db/C# f Ab

e G

NM(V) e M(V) Eb g eb/d# Bb d

bb~

O
Fig. 3. A spatial map of key location for each modulation condition superimposed onto Krumhansl and Kessler's (1982) key space (redrawn with permission of C. L. Kmmhansl). The mapping was achieved by performing Fourier analyses on probe-tone profiles obtained for the sequences, and plotting the angular dimensions of the third (qb) and fifth (O) partials.

are the phase angles (averaged across examples) of the third and fifth partials contained in the pattern of probetone ratings for that condition. In Figure 3, the location of the nonmodulating condition NM(I) is identified with the location of C major in the Krumhansl and Kessler (1982) solution. Thus, if the profiles for modulating sequences reflected only the key of the final tonic (complete tonicization), the location in the key space would be G and D for conditions M(V) and M(II), respectively, and would be F and Bb for conditions M(IV) and M(VII b), respectively. In Figure 3, it can be seen that conditions involving modulation were located in the appropriate direction on the cycle of fifths, with modulations of two steps extending further along the cycle than modulations of one step. There is also evidence of directional asymmetry, of a kind compatible with Thompson and Cud@ (1989 a). Modulations to the keys of G and D (the clockwise direction on the cycle of fifths) did not traverse the full distance to the location of the final key. Modulations to the keys of F and Bb (the counterclockwise direction), however, appeared to travel further, and were located quite near the final key 3.

Multiple regression
yielded a solution in four dimensions, which may be spatially portrayed as locally two-dimensional. Through the Fourier analysis, a location on the map was estimated for each of the modulating conditions in the present experiment. The background of this application of the Fourier analysis is as follows: Krumhansl (1982; Krumhansl & Schmuckler, 1986b), following a suggestion by Howard Kaplan (personal communication, 1981), found that the toroidal representation of key relations originally obtained from the multidimensional scaling solution could also be recovered from a Fourier analysis of probetone profiles. Using the method described by Jenkins and Watts (1968, pp. 17-21), Krumhansl analyzed both the major and the minor probe-tone profiles into six cyclic components. Most of the variance in these profiles was contained in the third and fifth partials. Moreover, the angular dimensions of the third and fifth partials, when plotted against each other, placed the major and minor keys in the same relative positions as had the original solution. (See also Cuddy & Badertscher (1987), Jordan (1987), and Jordan & Shepard (1987) for related developments using a Fourier analysis of probe-tone profiles.) Figure 3 shows the key map of Krumhansl and Kessler (1982), with the horizontal axis representing the phase angle of the fifth partial (cycle of fifths in the multidimensional solution) and the vertical axis representing the phase angle of the third partial (cycle of thirds in the multidimensional solution). Six points are located on the map, one for each modulation condition. The coordinates for each point
3 The total amount of variance accounted for by the third and fifth partials, according to the Fourier analysis, ranged from 80% to 92% across the six modulation conditions. The dimensions of the key map were represented in all profiles in all conditions.

The final analysis, multiple regression, was conducted to verify the statistical reliability of the directional asymmetry represented on the map of key regions. It also permitted an examination of the extent to which probe-tone ratings reflected the stimulus distribution of tones in the sequences. For each modulation condition, the dependent variable was Probe-Tone Profile, the probe-tone ratings obtained for the two examples of the condition. It was thus a vector of 24 ratings corresponding to 12 probe tones x 2 examples. Two predictor variables were defined for nonmodulating sequences - Sequence Profile and Tonal Hierarchy. Sequence Profile represented the number of times each tone had occurred in each sequence. Tonal Hierarchy represented the rating assigned to each probe tone in the standardized profile for the key of the sequence (Krumhansl & Kessler, 1982). For modulating sequences, three predictor variables were defined. Sequence Profile was defined as above. There were, however, two different Tonal Hierarchy predictors: for one, the entries were ratings from the standardized profile for the initial key of the sequence, and for the other, they were ratings from the standardized profile for the final key of the sequence. Simple correlations between each Probe-Tone Profile and each predictor variable are given in Table 3. All but one correlation were highly significant. The simple correlations, however, are not independent, because the predictor variables themselves were intercorrelated. The average correlation between Sequence Profile and Tonal Hierarchy, for nonmodulating sequences, was .95, between Sequence Profile and Tonal Hierarchy (initial key), for modulating sequences, was .77, and between Sequence Profile and Tonal Hierarchy (final key), for modulating sequences, was .68. With only two exceptions (correlations between Sequence Profile and Tonal Hierarchy (final key) for the sequences of condition M(VII b)), corre-

57 Table 3. Simple co~-relationsbetween probe-tone ratings and predictor variables. Condition Predictors SequenceProfile TonalHierarchy NM(I) NM(V) .86**** .91"*** .88**** .90**** SequenceProfile TonalHierarchy TonalHierarchy (initial) (final) .87**** .81"*** .80**** .58** .87**** .71"*** .53** .31 .83**** .91"*** .78**** .83**** NM(I) NM(V) Table 4. Normalizedregressioncoefficients(beta weights) for predictor variables. Condition Predictors SequenceProfile TonalHierarchy -.20 1.10"* .27 .65** SequenceProfile TonalHierarchy TonalHierarchy (initial) (final) .05 .07 .15 .08 .56"** .21 .58*** .21 .45*** .74**** .87**** .78'***

M(V) M(IV) M(II) M(VIIb)

M(V) M(IV) M(II) M(VIIb)

**p <.01; ****p <.0001.

** p <.01, ***p <.001, ****p <.0001.

iations for individual sequences were significant at the .05 level or beyond. The aim of the multiple-regression analysis was to create statistically independent predictors as reflected by normalized regression coefficients. These coefficients, or beta weights, represent the strength of the relationship between the dependent variable and a predictor when both have been residualized for their relationship with the other variables in the analysis. The normalized regression coefficients resulting from this analysis are given in Table 4. Inspection of Table 4 reveals that the beta weights for Sequence Profile were not significant for any modulation condition. This finding suggests that Sequence Profile did not have predictive power beyond that which it shared with Tonal Hierarchy. The coefficients for at least one of the Tonal Hierarchy predictors, however, were significant for each modulation condition. Coefficients were highly significant for the Tonal Hierarchy for nonmodulating sequences and for the Tonal Hierarchy of the final key for modulating sequences. Coefficients were highly significant for the Tonal Hierarchy of the initial key for clockwise modulations only - not for counterclockwise modulations. The results of hierarchical regression were also examined. Sequence Profile, entered first into the regression analysis, accounted, on the average, for 65% of the variance in the probe-tone ratings. Adding Tonal Hierarchy predictors led to a significant increase in variance accounted for - an increase of 20%, on average, or a total amount of 85%.4 Moreover, predictors accounting for this increase in variance were related to modulation direction. They were Tonal Hierarchy (both initial and final) for clockwise modulations, and Tonal Hierarchy (final) for counterclockwise modulations. For counterclockwise modulations, probe-tone profiles emphasized tones prominent in the hierarchy of the final key to a significantly greater extent than could be predicted from the stimulus distribution alone. For clockwise modulations, probe-tone profiles emphasized tones prominent in 4 Tonal Hierarchy predictors, without Sequence Profile added to the analysis, also accounted,on the average,for 85% of the variance.In other words, if Tonal Hierarchy predictors were entered into the regression analysis, SequenceProfile could be droppedwithoutloss of prediction.

the hierarchy of the initial key and tones prominent in the hierarchy of the final key to a significantly greater extent than could be predicted from the stimulus distribution alone. Consistent with location on the key map (Figure 3), probe-tone profiles for modulations in the counterclockwise direction reflected the standardized profile for the final key of the modulating sequence and showed little influence of the initial key. Probe-tone profiles for modulations in the clockwise direction reflected a combination of the standardized profiles for the initial and the final key of the modulating sequence. Another way of representing the stimulus context was considered; this assumed that listeners did not respond to the pitch distribution of the entire sequence, but only to the final chords of the sequence. The predictor Cadence Profile for each sequence was defined as the number of times each probe tone had occurred in the last three chords (the final cadence). Cadence Profile, however, did not prove a more successful predictor than Sequence Profile, and is therefore not discussed further here.

Discussion There were two main results of the experiment. First, converging evidence of directional asymmetry in perceived key movement was obtained, and second, probe-tone profiles reliably recovered tonal effects above and beyond correspondences with the sequence profiles. We comment on each in turn. The first result was consistent with the results of identification and rating studies reported by Thompson and Cuddy (1989a). For a given modulation distance, perceived key change in four-voice harmonic sequences was greater for modulations in the counterclockwise, as opposed to the clockwise, direction on the cycle of fifths. Probe-tone profiles for counterclockwise modulations reflected the tonal hierarchy of the final key, whereas those for clockwise modulation reflected both the tonal hierarchy of the initial key and the tonal hierarchy of the final key. These results are compatible with the notion that counterclockwise modulations effected a clearer shift in tonal organization than did the clockwise modulations.

58 The second result supported the reliability of the probetone procedure, and confirmed that it was possible to identify sources of variance in probe-tone ratings. Probe-tone ratings in all modulation conditions were significantly correlated with frequency of occurrence of the tones in the stimulus context. Tones that occurred frequently in a sequence tended to be assigned higher ratings than tones that occurred infrequently or did not occur at all. However, prediction based on the stimulus distribution was improved in all conditions by the addition to the regression equation of variables representing the standardized profile - the tonal hierarchy - for the intended key or keys of the sequence. The additional variance accounted for is an indicator that listeners weighed the ratings assigned to probe tones in accord with the functional role of the probe tone in a key or keys deemed present at the end of a sequence. Modulating sequences differed in the extent to which the initial key of the sequence was "active" at the end of the sequence, and the differences were systematically related to the direction of modulation. We turn now to theoretical speculation about the processes responsible for directional asymmetry. Certain interpretions of the data can be ruled out on the basis of the evidence from the present and previous investigations (Thompson & Cuddy, 1989a, 1989b). First, directional asymmetry is not simply attributable to the failure of listeners to detect the modulation in sequences modulating counterclockwise, i.e., to a failure to establish the initial key. If the initial key were not established adequately, identification of modulation distance and direction should be quite difficult, if not impossible. However, Thompson and Cuddy (1989 a) found that identification of key change was in fact more, not less, accurate for counterclockwise than for clockwise modulations. Second, directional asymmetry does not arise from an interpretive bias acquired through formal training in traditional music theory. Both our previous study (Thompson & Cuddy, 1989 a) and the present study included a group of listeners with no such training; the results from this group closely resembled the results of a group that had formal training. Thus, formal training in traditional music theory does not seem to be responsible for directional asymmetry. Third, directional asymmetry is not attributable to a bias produced by the simplification of the original Bach chorales to eight block chords. In an experiment in which ratings of key distance for the original excerpts were collected, we found distance judgments and directional asymmetry to be similar to those obtained for the simplified versions (Thompson & Cuddy, 1989b). Thus, simplification preserved the nature of the key movement present in the original excerpts. Several theoretical accounts of directional asymmetry have been offered in the music-theoretic literature, as was noted by Thompson and Cuddy (1989a). Rosen (1971) argued that the structure of the overtone series creates an imbalance in the cycle of fifths, and that this imbalance has important implications for tonal music. He suggested that the second overtone (i. e., the third partial) of any note implicates movement to the fifth above that note: by extrapolation, the second overtone of the tonic note of a key could implicate key movement to the dominant, or more generally, key movement in a clockwise direction on the cycle of fifths. There are, of course, standard arguments against explanations of music based on the overtone series (e.g., Agmon, 1990; Serafine, 1983). However, these objections are aimed largely at models that make extensive use of the overtone series as an explanatory principle without adequately acknowledging the importance of cultural factors in shaping listeners' experience of music. They do not exclude all possible influences of the overtone series on perceptual judgment. An alternative account is based on harmonic constraints. Wefts ( 1983) clas sifted modulating harmonic progressions as "strong" or "weak". Strong progressions were defined in terms of two qualities: first, they are "efficient" because it is theoretically possible to realize a key change by using fewer triads than would be needed if the order of the two keys were reversed; second, strong progressions are "flexible" because the tonic of the first key, when taken as pivot, offers more harmonic options in the new key than does the tonic triad of the retrograde of the same progression. Essential for these concepts is Werts's notion of harmonic "priorities," whereby certain harmonic changes are acceptable and others are only used in exceptional circumstances. Having classified harmonic progressions in this way, Werts noted that strong modulating progressions almost always involve movement in the clockwise, rather than the counterclockwise, direction on the cycle of fifths. Difficulties exist for both explanations. Rosen' s (1971) approach leaves unexplained the mechanism by which sensitivity to the second overtone of the tonic becomes engaged in expectations at the level of key relationships. For Werts (1983), the notion of harmonic priorities appears to be axiomatic: one is left with the task of understanding why certain harmonic changes have perceptual priority over others. Although there is considerable descriptive and empirical evidence about the strength of chord-pair relationships, an appropriate test of Werts' s (1983) hypotheses requires quantification of perceived chord relations in a larger harmonic context, including the contexts of minor keys. (For a related discussion, see Schmuckler (1989, pp. 134-135).) Both accounts, however, assign directional asymmetry to the principled operation of processes engaged in the perception of modulation. Our data and Werts's (1983) account converge on the notion that directional asymmetry emerges at the level of harmonic processes; directional asymmetry was found for four-voice harmonic presentations of the chorale sequences, but not for the single voices contained in the sequences (Thompson & Cuddy, 1989 a, 1989b). Thus it seems unlikely that the abstract system of relations between keys contains an imbalance; if it did, directional asymmetry should also have been evident for single-voice presentations. Rather, it is more likely that the perceived amount of key movement for harmonic sequences is influenced by harmonic constraints. Whether these constraints apply generally to the syntax of the Western tonality or whether they are features of the particular compositional style we have chosen to study must be resolved by future research. To conclude, probe-tone ratings did not merely reflect the stimulus distribution or the final cadence of chorale sequences. Probe-tone ratings were sensitive measures of

59

perceived key structure, of key movement, and, in particular, of perceptual asymmetries arising from the temporal order of keys in modulating sequences. These results, along with the results of many previous investigations, support the notion that the perception of key structure and change involves the abstraction of higher-order properties of musical organization. Directional asymmetry appears to be a product of the complex processes engaged in this aspect of musical experience.
Acknowledgements. This research was supported by the Natural Sciences
and Engineering Research Council of Canada and the Advisory Research Committee of Queen's University. The present analysis was conducted on data reported in a doctoral thesis by W. F. Thompson (Thompson, 1986). We thank John Burge, School of Music, Queen's University, and Carol Krumhansl, Department of Psychology, Cornell University, for many helpful discussions and advice. Technical assistance was provided by Lise de Kok, Mark Yung, and Andrea Lypchuk.

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