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Vijaya Bank, 1Q FY 2014
Vijaya Bank, 1Q FY 2014
Vijaya Bank
Performance Highlights
NEUTRAL
CMP Target Price
% chg (qoq) (10.5) (19.1) (45.7) 1QFY13 455 259 111 % chg (yoy) 5.7 27.6 19.0
`37 -
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code
Vijaya bank reported a moderate operating performance for the quarter. Its NII grew by a meager 5.7% yoy. Non-interest income grew strongly by 117.6% yoy, boosted by treasury gains of `141cr as compared to `20cr in 1QFY2013. The bank continued to witness asset quality pressures, as the annualized slippage rate remained elevated at 2.6%. Provisioning expenses reduced by 31.8% to `89cr, and hence earnings at the PBT level grew by 88.0% yoy. However as the bank had a lower effective tax rate of 13.2% in 1QFY2013 as compared to 45.1% in 1QFY2014, the PAT for the bank grew at a relatively toned down 19.0% yoy. NIM declines 21bp qoq; Asset quality witnesses pressures: During 1QFY2014, the banks loan book de-grew by 2.6% qoq, while its deposits grew at a substantial pace of 8.6% qoq. Consequently, the CD ratio for the bank declined significantly by 741bp qoq to 64.5%. Overall CASA deposits grew at a subdued pace of 8.0% yoy (declined by 2.4% qoq) and hence, the CASA ratio for the bank declined 213bp qoq and 242bp yoy to 18.8%. The reported NIM declined by 21bp qoq to 2.0%, on account of a) higher decline in yields on advances (28bp qoq) as compared to cost of deposits (12bp qoq) and b) significant decline in CD ratio. The bank witnessed a healthy 22.0% yoy growth in its non-interest income (excluding treasury) to `125cr. On the asset quality front, the bank witnessed pressures during the quarter, as gross and net NPA levels increased sequentially by around 7%. The PCR (including technical write-offs) declined by 103bp qoq to 67.3%. Additionally, the bank restructured advances worth `243cr (largely infrastructure accounts) during the quarter, thereby taking its outstanding restructured book to `5,000cr (~7.4% of its net advances). Slippages from the restructured book for the bank remain at a low of ~4%. As per the Management, advances worth ~`400-500cr are in the restructuring pipeline, while SEB advances worth ~`3,000cr are to be restructured under FRP in 2QFY2014. Outlook and valuation: We remain wary of the incremental asset quality and margin concerns for the bank, as we take into consideration its high exposure to stressed sectors, its predominantly wholesale based funding profile and recent macro developments amidst an overall weak economic environment. Overall, we have a cautious view on the sector, with a positive bias towards more retailoriented banks, on both assets as well as on liabilities. Moreover, the banks core equity tier-I ratio also remains low, which could entail raising capital at book dilutive valuations. Hence, we recommend a Neutral rating on the stock.
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 55.0 13.9 5.1 25.9
3m (6.0) (29.5)
Vaibhav Agrawal
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6808 vaibhav.agrawal@angelbroking.com
Sourabh Taparia
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6872 sourabh.taparia@angelbroking.com
Harshal Patkar
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6847 harshal.patkar@angelbroking.com
% chg (8.1) 110.7 15.1 22.3 7.1 (36.7) 43.7 149.3 6.5
1QFY14 4QFY13 67,964 105,369 64.5 4,581 15,275 19,856 18.8 10.9 8.3 7.8 11.1 2.0 55.8 1,645 2.4 977 1.5 67.3 2.6 69,766 97,017 71.9 5,216 15,133 20,349 21.0 11.3 8.5 8.0 11.4 2.2 51.1 1,533 2.2 910 1.3 68.3 1.8
%chg (qoq) 1QFY13 (2.6) 8.6 (741)bp (12.2) 0.9 (2.4) (213)bp (42)bp (21)bp (12)bp (28)bp (21)bp 473bp 7.3 25bp 7.4 15bp (103)bp 83bp 59,306 86,464 68.6 4,949 13,441 18,390 21.3 13.2 9.8 8.1 11.6 2.1 55.2 1,693 2.9 979 1.7 64.1 3.3
%chg (yoy) 14.6 21.9 (409)bp (7.4) 13.6 8.0 (242)bp (228)bp (150)bp (22)bp (56)bp (14)bp 62bp (2.8) (43)bp (0.1) (22)bp 316bp (70)bp
Loan book contracts; NIM declines 21bp qoq due to lower CD ratio
During 1QFY2014, the loan book for the bank de-grew by 2.6% qoq (though up by 14.6% on a yoy basis), while its deposits grew at a substantial pace of 8.6% qoq (21.9% yoy). Consequently, the CD ratio for the bank declined significantly by 741bp qoq and 409bp yoy to 64.5%. Within its loan book, agri advances declined by 9.9% qoq, while retail loan book remained largely flat sequentially. On the liabilities front, savings deposits for the bank grew by 13.6% on a yoy basis (almost flat sequentially), while current deposits witnessed a decline of 7.4% yoy and 12.2% qoq. Overall CASA deposits grew at a subdued pace of 8.0% yoy (declined by 2.4% qoq) and hence, the CASA ratio for the bank declined 213bp qoq and 242bp yoy to 18.8%. The cost of deposits for the bank declined by 12bp qoq to 7.8%, while yield on advances declined by a much higher 28bp qoq to 11.1%. The reported NIM for the bank declined by a higher 21bp qoq to 2.0%, on account of a) higher decline in yields on advances as compared to costs of deposits and b) significant decline in CD ratio.
2.4 4.1
9.0 4.8
8.6 8.6
8.6
4.0 2.0 -
(0.7) (1.5)
(2.6)
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
1QFY14
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
1QFY14
2.08 2.00
1QFY13
2QFY13
3QFY13
4QFY13
1QFY14
Additionally, the bank restructured advances worth `243cr during the quarter, which largely comprised of seven infrastructure accounts. As of 1QFY2014, its outstanding restructured book stood at `5,000cr (~7.4% of its net advances). Slippages from the restructured book for the bank remain at a low of ~4%. As per the Management, advances worth ~`400-500cr are in the CDR restructuring pipeline, while SEB advances worth ~`3,000cr would be restructured under FRP in 2QFY2014.
Slippages (%)
3.3
3.8
2.1
1.8
2.6
2.9 1.7
3.2 1.9
2.9 1.7
2.2 1.3
55.2
59.9
55.0
51.1
48.0 46.0
55.8
2.4 1.5
1.0
Investment concerns
Unfavourable deposit mix to keep NIM under pressure
Vijaya Banks CASA ratio as of 1QFY2014 stood at 18.8%, which is amongst the lowest in the industry. Owing to the unfavorable deposit mix, we expect the banks NIM to remain under pressure in the short term. The only positive surprise on the NIM front can come on account of recognition of interest income on recoveries from slippages.
Low RoAs
The banks RoA and RoE at 0.4% and 11.4%, respectively in FY2013, are on the lower side. This is mainly on account of lower other income excluding treasury (at 0.5% of average assets as of FY2013) and high operating expenses relative to its fee and CASA franchise (at 1.3% of average assets as of FY2013).
Earlier estimates FY2014 13.0 8.0 21.4 1.9 (7.3) 7.5 5.0 2.0 69.0 FY2015 13.0 11.0 21.7 2.0 10.6 10.0 5.0 1.7 70.0
Revised estimates FY2014 13.0 8.0 21.4 1.8 17.5 11.0 12.5 2.0 69.0 FY2015 13.0 11.0 21.7 1.9 (5.0) 5.0 5.0 1.7 70.0
FY2015 Var. (%) (6.8) 26.7 0.1 4.7 (5.1) 1.2 (9.0) 18.9 (18.9) Earlier estimates 2,423 623 3,046 1,571 1,476 484 991 337 654 Revised estimates 2,264 678 2,941 1,597 1,345 493 852 290 562 Var. (%) (6.6) 8.8 (3.4) 1.7 (8.9) 1.8 (14.1) (14.1) (14.1)
Earlier estimates 2,151 563 2,714 1,452 1,262 485 777 202 575
Revised estimates 2,005 713 2,718 1,521 1,197 491 707 240 466
Nov-02
Nov-04
Nov-06
Nov-08
Nov-10
Nov-12
Jul-03
Jul-05
Jul-07
Jul-09
Jul-11
Mar-02
Mar-04
Mar-06
Mar-08
Mar-10
Mar-12
Jul-13
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note:*Target multiples=SOTP Target Price/ABV (including subsidiaries), #Without adjusting for SASF
Company Background
Vijaya Bank is a mid-sized PSU bank with a balance sheet size of ~`1.1 lakh cr. The bank's branches are mainly concentrated in the southern states (~60%), with majority being in the parent state of Karnataka (~40%). The bank, unlike most other PSU banks, has more than half of its branches located in the urban and metropolitan areas (~52%).
FY10 1,449 28.8 679 (2.8) 2,129 16.7 1,072 15.9 1,057 17.6 356 (0.4) 701 29.5 194 27.6 507 93.3
FY11 1,947 34.3 533 (21.5) 2,480 16.5 1,433 33.8 1,047 (1.0) 439 23.3 608 (13.3) 84 13.8 524 3.3
FY12 1,904 (2.2) 528 (1.0) 2,431 (2.0) 1,201 (16.2) 1,230 17.5 581 32.4 649 6.8 68 10.5 581 10.9
FY13 1,878 (1.3) 607 15.0 2,485 2.2 1,363 13.5 1,122 (8.8) 545 (6.1) 577 (11.2) (9) (1.6) 586 0.8
FY14E 2,005 6.8 713 17.5 2,718 9.4 1,521 11.6 1,197 6.7 491 (10.0) 707 22.6 240 34.0 466 (20.3)
FY15E 2,264 12.9 678 (5.0) 2,941 8.2 1,597 5.0 1,345 12.3 493 0.5 852 20.5 290 34.0 562 20.5
104,779 116,304
119,610 132,314
119,610 132,314
10
E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
Vijaya Bank No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors
Ratings (Returns):
11