Currencies Daily Report

Tuesday| August 13, 2013

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Reena Rohit Chief Manager Non-Agri Commodities and Currencies Reena.rohit@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6134 Anish Vyas Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Currencies Daily Report

Tuesday| August 13, 2013

Highlights
Indias Industrial Production fell around 2.2 percent in June. US Federal Budget Balance was at a deficit of $97.6 billion in July July. Indias Trade Balance was at a deficit of $12.27 billion in July July. Asian markets are trading higher today on the back of less than forecasted decline in Japans machinery orders coupled with expectations that Japans Prime Minister Shizo Abe will consider a corporate tax cut. US Federal ral Budget Balance was at a deficit of $97.6 billion in July as against a surplus of $116.5 billion a month ago. Indias Trade Balance was at a deficit of $12.27 billion in July as against a previous deficit of 12.2 billion in June. The countrys exports increased to $25.83 billion in July from $23.79 billion a month ago. While imports also surged to $38.1 billion in last month with respect to $36.03 billion in prior month. Indias Consumer Price Index (CPI) declined to 9.6 percent in 9.6 percent in July from rom rise of 9.9 percent in June. Industrial Production fell around 2.2 percent in June with respect to earlier drop of 1.6 percent in May. Manufacturing Output slipped by 2.2 percent in June when compared to decline of 2 percent a month ago.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last Prev. day

as on August 12, 2013 WoW MoM YoY

NIFTY SENSEX DJIA S&P FTSE KOSPI BOVESPA NIKKEI Nymex Crude (Aug13) - $/bbl Comex Gold (Aug13) - $/oz Comex Silver(Sept13) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% - Yield

5565.7 18789.3 15419.68 1689.5 17262.9 1959.2 58497.8 14506.3 106.11 1334.70 20.40

0.8 0.7 0.0 -0.1 0.4 -1.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 1.7 1.1

-2.1 -2.0 -1.2 0.6 3.0 2.2 20.8 -0.1 -0.4 4.0 3.5

-6.2 -4.5 -0.2 0.6 10.0 5.0 23.4 -0.6 0.1 4.4 2.4

4.6 2.7 16.7 20.2 18.8 2.0 -1.1 66.3 14.3 -17.6 -27.3

US Dollar Index
The US Dollar Index (DX) gained around 0.3 percent in the yesterdays trade on the back of rise in risk aversion in global market sentiments which led to increase in demand for low yielding currency. Further, unfavorable Federal Budget Balance data also supported an upside in the currency. The DX touched an intra-day high of 81 81.55 and closed at 81.37 on Monday.

7267.00 102.09

0.0 0.0

4.0 10.3

-7.4 4.4

-1.8 2.0

Source: Reuters

US Dollar (% change)
Last Prev. day WoW

as on August 12, 2013 MoM YoY

Dollar Index US $ / INR (Spot) US $ / INR Aug13 Futures (NSE) US $ / INR Aug13 Futures (MCX-SX)

81.37 61.11 61.33 61.32

0.3 -0.7 0.31 0.29

-0.7 -0.4 2.04 2.03

-2.2 -2.2 2.04 2.03

2.4 -9.4 10.51 10.49

Dollar/INR
The Indian Rupee depreciated around 0.7 percent in yesterdays trading session. The currency depreciated preciated on the back of unfavorable Trade Balance data coupled with statement from Finance Minister P. Chidambaram for taking measures sures to narrow current account deficit but it lacked important details. Further, statement from Finance Minister that economy is still facing challenges exerted downside pressure on the currency. Additionally, strength in the DX in early part of the trade acted as a negative factor. The Rupee touched an intra-day day low of 61.295 and closed at 61.11 on Monday. For the month of August 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs. Rs.814.50 crores th ($133.85 million) as on 12 August 2013. Year to date basis, net capita capital th inflows stood at Rs.66906.90 66906.90 crores ($12619.60 million) till 12 August 2013. Outlook From the intra-day day perspective, we expect Indian Rupee to trade on mixed note as unfavorable industrial production and manufacturing output data will exert downside pressure. While on the other hand, upbeat global markets, weakness in the DX along with details disclosed by RBI regarding quasi sovereign bonds will support an upside in Rupee Rupee.

Technical Chart USD/INR

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
US Dollar/INR Aug13 (NSE/MCX-SX)

valid for August 13, 2013 Trend Sideways Support 61.0/60.80 Resistance 61.50/61.70

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Currencies Daily Report

Tuesday| August 13, 2013

Euro/INR
The Euro depreciated around 0.3 percent in the yesterdays trading session on the back of strength in the DX. Further, , weak global markets sentiments also exerted downside pressure on the currency currency. 1.3298 The Euro touched an intra-day low of 1.3276 and closed at 1.3 against the dollar on Monday. Outlook In todays session, Euro is expected to trade higher on the b back of upbeat global market sentiments. Further, expectations of favorable economic data from the region coupled with weakness in the DX will support an upside in the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR Aug13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up 81.30/81.0 81.80/82.0 valid for August 13, 2013 Support Resistance

Euro (% change)
Last Prev. day

as on August 12, 2013 WoW MoM YoY

Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR July 13 Futures (NSE) Euro / INR July13 Futures (MCX-SX)

1.3298 81.26 81.7 81.7

-0.3 -0.4 -0.05 -0.11

0.3 -0.7 4.33 4.25

1.6 -3.7 4.33 4.25

7.8 -16.0 20.01 19.92

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Euro

GBP/INR
Source: Telequote

The Sterling Pound depreciated around 0.2 percent yesterday taking cues from strength in the DX. Additionally, weak global markets acted as a negative factor for the currency. 1.5456 and closed at The Sterling Pound touched an intra-day low of 1.5 1.5462 against dollar on Monday. UKs Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) House Price Balance was at 36 percent in July as against a rise of 21 percent a month ago ago. Outlook We expect Sterling Pound to trade higher on the back of rise in risk appetite in global market sentiments. Further, expectations of favorable economic data from the country along with weakness in the DX will support an upside in the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR Aug 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up valid for August 13, 2013 Support 94.70/94.50 Resistance 95.20/95.50

GBP (% change)

as on August 12, 2013

Last

Prev. day

WoW

MoM

YoY

$ / GBP (Spot) GBP / INR (Spot) GBP / INR July13 Futures (NSE) GBP / INR July 13 Futures (MCX-SX)

1.5462 94.862 95.05

-0.23 0.23 0.80 0.20

0.7 1.48 4.80

1.8 4.85 4.80

-1.4 9.58 9.87

95.04

0.19

4.77

4.77

9.86

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Sterling Pound

Source: Telequote

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Currencies Daily Report

Tuesday| August 13, 2013

JPY/INR
The Japanese Yen depreciated around 0.7 percent in the yesterdays trade on account rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments in early part of trade which led to fall in demand for the currency. The Yen touched an intra-day low of 96.93 and closed at 96.89 89 against dollar on Monday. Japans Revised ed Industrial Production fell by 3.1 percent in June from earlier fall of 3.3 percent a month ago. Prelim Machine Tool Orders dropped by 12.1 percent in July with respect to decline of 12.4 percent in June. Core Machinery Orders declined by 2.7 percent in June from rise of 10.5 percent a month earlier. Outlook From the intra-day day perspective, we expect Japanese Yen to depreciate on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments which will lead to fall in demand for the low yielding currency ncy. However, sharp upside in the currency will be capped or reversal can be seen on account of less than estimated decline in the Japans machinery orders data data.

JPY (% change)
Last Prev day

as on August 12, 2013 WoW MoM YoY

JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR July13 Futures (NSE) JPY 100 / INR July13 Futures (MCX-SX)

96.89 0.631 63.43 63.45

0.7 0.13 -0.11 -0.06

-1.4 1.89 4.93 4.98

-2.1 4.57 4.93 4.98

23.7 -10.48 -10.28 -10.24

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart JPY

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR Aug 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up

valid for August 13, 2013 Support 63.10/62.80 Resistance 63.70/63.90

Economic Indicators to be released on August 13 13, 2013

Indicator Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact

Core Machinery Orders m/m Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes CPI y/y PPI Input m/m RPI y/y German ZEW Economic Sentiment Industrial Production m/m ZEW Economic Sentiment Core Retail Sales m/m Retail Sales m/m Import Prices m/m Business Inventories m/m

Japan Japan UK UK UK Euro Euro Euro US US US US

5:20am 5:20pm 2:00pm 2:00pm 2:00pm 2:30pm 2:30pm 2:30pm 6:00pm 6:00pm 6:00pm 7:30pm

-2.7% -

-7.1% 2.8% 1.2% 3.1% 40.3 1.1% 37.4 0.4% 0.2% 0.9% 0.3%

10.5% 2.9% 0.2% 3.3% 36.3 -0.3% 32.8 0.0% 0.4% -0.2% 0.1%

Medium Medium High Medium Medium High Medium Medium High High Medium Medium

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