Currencies Daily Report

Wednesday August 14, 2013 Wednesday|

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Reena Rohit Chief Manager Non-Agri Commodities and Currencies Reena.rohit@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6134 Anish Vyas Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Currencies Daily Report

Wednesday August 14, 2013 Wednesday|

Highlights
US Core Retail Sales increased by 0.5 percent in the month of July. German ZEW Economic Sentiment for August month rose to 42 42-mark. UKs CPI for the month of July declined to 2.9 percent. Asian markets are trading higher today on the back of favorable economic data from Euro Zone and US in yesterdays trade showing signs of global economic growth. US Core Retail Sales increased by 0.5 percent in July as against a rise of 0.1 percent in June. Retail Sales grew by 0.2 percent in last month from earlier rise of 0.6 percent in June. Import Prices gained by 0.2 percent in July with respect to fall of 0.4 percent a month ago. Indian government increased Import duty on gold from 8 percent to 10 percent. Refined gold bars excise duty raised to 9 percent from earlier 7 percent. Similarly, import duty on silver hiked from 6 percent to 10 percent and refined silver ores excise duty shoot up to 8 percent from 4 percent.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last Prev. day

as on August 13, 2013 WoW MoM YoY

NIFTY SENSEX DJIA S&P FTSE KOSPI BOVESPA NIKKEI Nymex Crude (Aug13) - $/bbl Comex Gold (Aug13) - $/oz Comex Silver(Sept13) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% - Yield

5565.7 18789.3 15451.01 1694.2 17380.1 1959.2 58497.8 14506.3 106.83 1321.20 21.33

0.8 0.7 0.2 0.3 0.7 -1.5 0.2 0.2 0.7 -1.0 4.6

0.4 0.3 -0.4 0.8 4.2 2.8 23.4 -0.1 1.5 2.7 9.3

-7.4 -5.9 -0.1 0.8 8.3 3.8 22.7 -1.0 0.3 2.8 9.9

4.6 2.7 17.3 20.7 18.6 2.0 0.7 66.3 15.2 -17.9 -23.2

US Dollar Index
The US Dollar Index (DX) gained around 0.5 percent in the yesterdays trade on the back of favorable retail sales data from the US increased the expectations that Federal Reserve will pullback its stimulus measures in the current year. However, rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments capped sharp gains in the currency currency. The DX touched an intra-day high of 81.93 and closed at 81.82 on Tuesday.

7291.00 102.09

0.3 0.0

4.2 9.8

-7.1 4.8

-1.7 2.1

Source: Reuters

US Dollar (% change)
Last Prev. day WoW

as on August 13, 2013 MoM YoY

Dollar/INR
The Indian Rupee appreciated around 0.4 percent in yesterdays trading session. The currency appreciated on the back of hike in import duty by government for gold and silver to record high of 10 percent along with increase in excise duty for the metals. . Further, weakness in the DX in early part of the trade coupled with upbeat global and domestic market sentiments supported an upside in the currency. However, sharp upside in the currency was capped as a result of dollar demand from oil firms. The Rupee touched an intra-day day high of 60.884 and closed at 61.33 on Tuesday. For the month of August 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs.1230.20 crores th ($202.22 million) as on 13 August 2013. Year to date basis, net capital th inflows stood at Rs.67322.60 crores ($12688 million) till 13 August 2013. Outlook Trend in the Rupee is expected to be towards appreciation today on the back of efforts by the RBI and the Government to curb the burgeoning CAD. But factors like strength in Dollar Index coupled with dollar demand from oil companies and expected d increase in inflation will continue to prevent sharp appreciation in the Rupee.

Dollar Index US $ / INR (Spot) US $ / INR Aug13 Futures (NSE) US $ / INR Aug13 Futures (MCX-SX)

81.82 61.33 61.33 61.34

0.5 -0.4 0.01 0.04

0.2 -0.9 2.05 2.07

-1.0 -2.4 2.05 2.07

3.0 -9.3 10.62 10.61

Technical Chart USD/INR

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Trend US Dollar/INR Aug13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways

valid for August 14, 2013 Support 61.10/60.90 Resistance 61.50/61.80

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Currencies Daily Report

Wednesday August 14, 2013 Wednesday|

Euro/INR
The Euro depreciated around 0.3 percent in the yesterdays trading session on the back of strength in the DX. However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned on account of positive economic data from the region coupled with upbeat global market sentiments sentiments. The Euro touched an intra-day low of 1.3232 and closed at 1.32 1.3261 against the dollar on Tuesday. German ZEW Economic Sentiment for the month of August rose to 42 42mark from 36.3 level in July. Industrial Production gained 0.7 percent in the month of June as compared to decline of 0.2 percent in May. ZEW Economic Sentiment increased to 44-mark mark in the month of August as compared to 32.8 level in July. Outlook In todays session, Euro is expected to trade higher on the back of upbeat global market sentiments. Further, expectations of favorable GDP data from the region will support an upside in the currency. However, wever, sharp upside in the currency will be capped or reversal can be seen on account of strength in the DX. Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR Aug13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up 81.30/81.0 81.80/82.0 valid for August 14, 2013 Support Resistance

Euro (% change)
Last Prev. day

as on August 13, 2013 WoW MoM YoY

Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR July 13 Futures (NSE) Euro / INR July13 Futures (MCX-SX)

1.3261 81.32 81.6 81.5

-0.3 -0.1 -0.18 -0.14

-0.3 -0.6 4.14 4.10

1.5 -3.9 4.14 4.10

7.6 -15.8 19.05 18.93

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Euro

Source: Telequote

GBP (% change)

as on August 13, 2013

GBP/INR
The Sterling Pound depreciated around 0.1 percent yesterday taking cues from strength in the DX. However, sharp downside in the currency was restricted as a result of positive economic data from the country along with upbeat global markets. . The Sterling Pound touched an intra intraday low of 1.5425 and closed at 1.5447 against dollar on Tuesday. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the month of July declined to 2.9 percent from 2.8 percent in June. Producer Price Index (PPI) Input rose significantly icantly to 1.1 percent in July as against 0.2 percent in June. RPI declined in the month of July to 3.1 percent from 3.3 percent in June. Core CPI declined to 2 percent in July as compared to 2.3 percent in June. HPI rose to 3.1 percent in the month of June e from 2.9 percent in May. PPI Output for July rose to 0.2 percent from 0.1 percent in June. Outlook We expect Sterling Pound to trade higher on the back of rise in risk appetite in global market sentiments. Further, expectations of decline in Claimant Count Change data from the country will support an upside in the currency. However, sharp upside in the currency will be prevented or reversal can be seen on account of strength in the DX. Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR Aug 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up valid for August 14, 2013 Support 94.60/94.30 Resistance 95.05/95.30
Source: Telequote

Last

Prev. day

WoW

MoM

YoY

$ / GBP (Spot) GBP / INR (Spot) GBP / INR July13 Futures (NSE) GBP / INR July 13 Futures (MCX-SX)

1.5447 94.944 94.84

-0.10 0.10 0.09 -0.22 0.22

0.7 1.80 4.57

2.3 4.94 4.57

-1.5 9.44 9.13

94.82

-0.24 0.24

4.52

4.52

9.08

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Sterling Pound

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Currencies Daily Report

Wednesday August 14, 2013 Wednesday|

JPY/INR
The Japanese Yen depreciated around 1.4 percent in the yesterdays trade on account rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments which led to fall in demand for the currency. The Yen touched an intra intraday low of 98.34 and closed at 98.20 against dollar on Tuesday. Japans Core Machinery Orders declined sharply in June by 2.5 percent from a gain of 10.5 percent in May. Outlook From the intra-day day perspective, we expect Japanese Yen to depreciate on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments which will lead to fall in demand for the low yielding currency. Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR Aug 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up valid for August 14, 2013 Support 62.30/62.0 Resistance 62.80/63.0

JPY (% change)
Last Prev day

as on August 13, 2013 WoW MoM YoY

JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR July13 Futures (NSE) JPY 100 / INR July13 Futures (MCX-SX)

98.2 0.626 62.56 62.57

1.4 -0.86 -1.37 -1.38

0.5 0.21 3.49 3.53

-1.0 3.68 3.49 3.53

24.7 -11.38 -11.61 -11.58

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart JPY

Source: Telequote

Economic Indicators to be released on August 14, 2013

Indicator Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact

French Prelim GDP q/q German Prelim GDP q/q French Prelim Non-Farm Payrolls q/q Claimant Count Change MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes MPC Official Bank Rate Votes Average Earnings Index 3m/y Unemployment Rate Flash GDP q/q German 10-y Bond Auction PPI m/m Core PPI m/m Crude Oil Inventories FOMC Member Bullard Speaks

Euro Euro Euro UK UK UK UK UK Euro Euro US US US US

11:00am 11:30am 12:15pm 2:00pm 2:00pm 2:00pm 2:00pm 2:00pm 2:30pm Tentative 6:00pm 6:00pm 8:00pm 10:50pm

0.1% 0.6% 0.0% -14.3K 0-0-9 0-0-9 2.1% 7.8% 0.2% 0.4% 0.2% -

-0.2% 0.1% -0.1% -21.2K 0-0-9 0-0-9 1.7% 7.8% -0.2% 1.57/1.6 0.8% 0.2% -1.3M -

Medium Medium Medium High High High Medium Medium Medium Medium High Medium Medium Medium

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