Demographic dividend

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Jump to: navigation, search The demographic dividend is a window of opportunity in the development of a society or nation that opens up as fertility rates decline when faster rates of economic growth and human development are possible when combined with effective policies and markets. The drop in fertility rates often follows significant reductions in child and infant mortality rates, as well as an increase in average life expectancy. As women and families realize that fewer children will die during infancy or childhood they will begin to have fewer children to reach their desired number of offspring. However, this drop in fertility rates is not immediate. The lag between produces a generational population bulge that surges through society. For a period of time this bulge is a burden on society and increases the dependency ratio. Eventually this group begins to enter the productive labor force. With fertility rates continuing to fall and older generations having shorter life expectancies, the dependency ratio declines dramatically. This demographic shift initiates the demographic dividend. With fewer younger dependents, due to declining fertility and child mortality rates, and fewer older dependents, due to the older generations having shorter life expectancies, and the largest segment of the population of productive working age, the dependency ratio declines dramatically leading to the demographic dividend. Combined with effective public policies this time period of the demographic dividend can help facilitate more rapid economic growth and puts less strain on families. This is also a time period when many women enter the labor force for the first time.[1] In many countries this time period has led to increasingly smaller families, rising income, and rising life expectancy rates.[2] However, dramatic social changes can also occur during this time, such as increasing divorce rates, postponement of marriage, and single-person households.[3]

India
[edit]|]edit source] In the near future India will be the largest individual contributor to the global demographic transition. A 2011 International Monetary Fund Working Paper found that substantial portion of the growth experienced by India since the 1980s is attributable to the countrys age structure and changing demographics.[10] The U.S. Census Bureau predicts that India will surpass China as the worlds largest country by 2025, with a large proportion of those in the working age category.[11] Over the next two decades the continuing demographic dividend in India could add about two percentage points per annum to Indias per capita GDP growth.[12] Extreme actions are needed to take care of future basic

minimum living standards including food, water and energy.[13] As per Population Reference Bureau India's population in 2050 is projected to be 1.692 billion people.[14]

The latest employment data for 2011-12 show that India's muchhyped demographic dividend has not yet arrived. The proportion of workers in the population rose slightly from 40% in 1980 to 43% in 2004-05, but is now down again to 40%. This is actually good news. It means that the record GDP growth of the 2000s was due to higher productivity, not rising worker participation. Second, the demographic dividend has not vanished. It's merely been postponed, and mainly for an excellent reason. Over 300 million youngsters above the age of 15, above all females, are studying in school and college rather than working. When these youngsters eventually join the workforce, they will be far better skilled than earlier expected.