Commodities Evening Update

Friday | August 16, 2013

International Commodities

Content
Days overview Market Highlights Outlook Important Events for Today

Research Team
Reena Rohit Chief Manager Non-Agri Commodities and Currencies Reena.rohit@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6134 Anish Vyas Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Commodities Evening Update

Friday | August 16, 2013 News and Analysis

International Commodities
Performance during the day
Index Nifty Sensex Nikkei Kospi FTSE Open High

Domestic markets witness worst equity performance today. Rupee touched an all-time low of 62 as fundamentals weaken. Weaker Rupee supported sharp gains in prices on the MCX. Gold MCX futures touch a high of Rs30,470/10gm.

as at 4.30 pm 16 August 13
Low Last % Chg from Prev day

5705.45 19297.11 13532.61 1903.72 17352.12

5716.60 19310.95 13739.52 1927.59 17530.57

5496.05 18559.65 13532.61 1901.70 17338.30

5507.85 18598.18 13650.11 1920.11 17338.30

-4.08 -3.97 -0.75 -0.20 0.28

Source: Reuters

Domestic equities witnessed one of the worst performance today, with the Sensex and the Nifty losing around 4 percent each. Taking cues from weak domestic equities, stronger Dollar Index and general market concerns, the Rupee weakened sharply and tested a low of 62 today. Worries over Indias economic health is leading the currency towards further weak territory. Asian equities saw a negative trade and the European stocks are also trading in the red as markets remain concerned ahead of US economic data today. This is because positive data would reiterate concerns that the Federal Reserve will move forward with the QE taper. US stock futures on the other hand are trading higher today as expectations of positive data is boosting sentiments. While risk of the pullback remains, positive economic data shows growth, thus supporting upside in US stocks despite weak world market sentiments today.

as at 4.30 pm 16 August 13
Currency Dollar Index Euro/$ Spot INR/$ Spot Open High Low Current % Chg from Prev day

81.18 1.3346 61.35

81.35 1.3356 62.00

81.155 1.3324 61.32

81.275 1.3337 61.695

0.08 -0.07 0.46

Source: Reuters

as at 4.30 pm 16 August 13
Commodity Spot Gold Comex Gold Aug13 MCX Gold Oct13 Spot Silver Comex Silver Sept13 MCX Silver Sept13 Crude Oil Nymex Aug 13 ICE -Brent Crude Oil MCX Crude Oil Aug 13 Copper LME - 3 Month MCX Copper Aug13 Zinc LME - 3 Month Zinc MCX - Aug13 Lead LME - 3 Month Lead MCX - Aug13 Nickel LME - 3 Month Nickel MCX Aug13 Aluminum LME - 3 Month Aluminum MCX Aug13 Unit Open High Low Last % Chg from Prev day

Precious metals, base metals and crude oil witnessed phenomenal gains on the MCX today as depreciation in the Rupee supported upside. While Spot Gold prices saw a slight pullback, prices of gold on the MCX near-month futures contract gained around 3.4 percent and tested a high of Rs30,470/10gm. Silver futures prices on the MCX jumped almost 6 percent till 4.30pm IST and weakness in the Rupee was a major factor supporting upside. Prices touched a high of $23.15/oz in the international markets and Rs50,219/kg in the Indian markets. Taking cues from geopolitical concerns, crude oil prices traded higher today. However, strength in the Dollar Index played a spoilsport and added pressure on the commodity but the overall trend remains bullish on account of concerns over supply disruptions. The MCX crude oil August contract gained around 1.8 percent and touched a high of Rs6677/bbl till 4.30pm IST today. Upbeat economic data in the last few days is continuing to support the base metals complex higher. While copper prices on the LME were up by around 0.5 percent till 4.30pm IST, gains on the MCX stood around 2 percent due to a weaker Rupee.

$/oz $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz $/oz

1366.69 1366.80 29290.00 22.94 0.2296 46673 107.18 109.42 6534 7340.50 451.90 1960.25 118.80 2215 135.20 14790 911.10 1913.00 114.60

1372.51 1371.00 30470.0 23.15 0.2297 50219 107.57 109.83 6677 7420.00 464.00 1993.75 121.60 2240 138.80 14950 927.70 1928.00 117.50

1357.34 1361.00 29290.0 22.74 0.2285 46673 107.03 109.17 6534 7328.00 451.90 1960.25 118.80 2208 135.20 14753 911.10 1913.00 114.60

1362.89 1362.10 30178.00 22.79 0.2285 49345 107.38 109.76 6649 7386.75 460.20 1991.50 121.20 2237 138.15 14873 920.90 1924.00 117.15

-0.19 0.04 3.40 -0.74 -0.34 5.95 0.05 -1.22 1.78 0.45 1.99 1.35 2.67 1.15 2.33 0.56 1.28 0.81 2.76

Rs/kg $/bbl

$/bbl Rs/bbl $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne

Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg

Source: Reuters

Commodities Evening Update

Friday | August 16, 2013

International Commodities
Outlook Sentiments towards gold look positive as gold ETF holdings revive and on the back of that we expect upside in gold prices today. In the Indian markets, gains will be higher on the back of Rupee depreciation. Trend in base metals is also expected to be positive due to upbeat economic indicators and expectations of positive data from the US today are also likely to add support to prices. Silver prices are also expected to rise, taking cues from increase in gold and industrial metals both. Rupee depreciation will act as a supportive factor for base metal prices on the MCX. Concerns over geopolitical tensions in Egypt will continue to act as a positive factor for oil prices and in the Indian markets upside will be additionally seen due to the weaker Rupee factor.

Technical Outook for evening session 16 August 13 ( CMP as of 4.30 pm)

Commodity Gold Oct'13 Spot Gold Silver Sept13 Spot Silver Crude Oil Aug13 Nymex Crude Oil Aug13 Natural Gas Aug13 LME Copper Copper Aug13 Zinc Aug13 Lead Aug13 Aluminum Aug13 Nickel Aug13 Unit Rs/10 gm $/oz Rs /kg $/oz Rs /bbl $/bbl Rs /mmBtu $/tonne Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Support 2 29750 1332 48600 22.01 6549 105.9 204 7260 454 119 136.2 115.5 903 Support 1 29980 1351 48900 22.6 6590 106.6 207 7320 457 120 137 116.2 911 CMP 30164 1362.2 49270 22.87 6632 107.27 210.2 7393 459.9 121.15 137.9 117.1 919.8 Resistance1 30300 1383 49750 23.50 6667 107.85 213 7420 464 122.2 139 118.1 928 Resistance 2 30480 1400 50300 24.08 6707 108.5 215 7460 466 123.3 140.2 119.2 936

Important Events for Today

Indicator Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact

Current Account CPI y/y Core CPI y/y Building Permits Housing Starts Prelim Nonfarm Productivity q/q Prelim Unit Labor Costs q/q Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

Euro Euro Euro US US US US US

1:30pm 2:30pm 2:30pm 6:00pm 6:00pm 6:00pm 6:00pm 7:25pm

16.9B 1.6% 1.1% -

21.2B 1.6% 1.1% 0.95B 0.91M 0.5% 1.4% 85.6

19.6B 1.6% 1.2% 0.92B 0.84M 0.5% -4.3% 85.1

Medium Medium Medium High Medium Medium Medium High