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Sadbhav Engg, 1Q FY 2014
Sadbhav Engg, 1Q FY 2014
Sadbhav Engg, 1Q FY 2014
Sadbhav Engineering
Performance Highlights
Quarterly highlights - Standalone
Y/E March (` cr) Net sales Operating profit Net profit 1QFY14 563 58 16 1QFY13 421 39 52 % chg (yoy) 33.6 47.8 (69.2) 4QFY13 702 52 12 % chg (qoq) (19.7) 10.8 39.5
BUY
CMP Target Price
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Net Debt (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (` ) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code Infrastructure 1,054 750 0.9 156/65 18,825 1 19,368 5,742 SADE.BO SADE@IN
`70 `99
12 Months
For 1QFY2014, Sadbhav Engineering (SEL) reported a poor set of numbers which were below our estimates. SELs performance on the revenue front was decent; however owing to high interest burden, earnings were below our estimate. SEL has an order book of `9,602cr (4.9x tailing revenues) as of 1QFY2014, which provides good revenue visibility. Execution momentum picks up: On the top-line front, SEL reported a revenue growth of 33.6% yoy to `563cr in 1QFY2014 as against our estimate of `591cr. This was mainly on account of pick up in the pace of execution in the remaining under-construction projects (mainly Chhindwara project, which contributed ~`225cr) and lower base of last year. On the margin front, the company posted an EBITDAM of 10.3%, up 98bp yoy, but was slightly lower than our estimate of 10.6%. The interest cost grew by 61.9% yoy to `28cr and was higher than our estimate by 25.3%. On the bottom-line front, the companys PAT reported a decline of 69.2% yoy to `16cr in 1QFY2014 against our estimate of `23cr. This was mainly due to lower-than-expected operational performance and higher interest expense during the quarter. Outlook and valuation: The Management has given a revenue guidance of `2,500cr for FY2014. It expects the recently won BOT projects Gomti-kaChauraha, Solapur-Bijapur, Rohtak-Hissar and Rajsamand-Bhilwara to contribute to E&C revenue. Given the healthy order book (4.9x trailing revenue), we expect the company to report revenues of `2,462cr and `2,731cr for FY2014 and FY2015 respectively. We continue to maintain our Buy view on the stock with a SOTP based target price of `99, owing to robust order backlog of `9,602cr (4.9x trailing revenues), strong balance sheet and on the expectation that the company would be able to meet the equity requirement for its under-construction/development projects through internal accruals or securitisation. Key financials (Standalone)
Y/E March (` cr) Net sales % chg Adj. net profit % chg EBITDA (%) FDEPS (`) P/E (x) P/BV (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) EV/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x) OB/Sales (x) Order inflows % chg
Source: Company, Angel Research
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 48.9 21.2 19.6 10.3
3m (1.8)
1yr 9.2
(39.2) (47.7)
FY2012 2,676 21.1 141 17.5 10.8 9.3 7.4 1.4 20.3 23.1 0.2 1.7 2.8 3,265 2.7
FY2013A 1,811 (32.3) 13 (90.7) 8.6 0.9 80.3 1.3 1.6 8.9 0.4 4.9 5.6 4,400 34.8
FY2014E 2,462 36.0 79 507.1 10.6 5.3 13.2 1.2 9.2 14.0 0.3 3.1 4.9 4,439 0.9
FY2015E 2,731 10.9 90 13.9 10.6 6.0 11.6 1.1 9.6 14.4 0.3 3.0 5.1 4,606 3.8
Viral Shah
022-39357800 Ext: 6842 viralk.shah@angelbroking.com
% chg (yoy) 33.6 32.2 47.8 98bp 61.9 24.5 55.1 (68.1) (65.8) (69.2) (957)bp (69.2)
% chg (qoq) (19.7) (22.2) 10.8 282bp (6.0) 23.2 32.2 36.2 30.5 39.5 122bp 39.5
% chg (32.3) (30.6) (46.3) (225)bp 29.6 16.0 (4.4) (46.9) (45.9) (47.3) (116)bp (47.3)
Estimates 591 63 22 12 23
Actual 563 58 28 9 16
724
905
335
(51.2)
Project update
Dhule-Palesnar project: The commercial operation date (COD) for the balance 25% of the Dhule-Palesnar project has been issued by the NHAI which is November 2, 2012. However, tolling on the balance 25% portion will start in 2QFY2014, since it has just received the final fee validation letter from the NHAI. The average collection from the Dhule-Palesner project is ~`24.9lakh/day (up 16% yoy). Further, SEL expects toll revenue of ~`36-38lakh/day, once all the three sections of the project are operational (expected in 2QFY2014). Maharashtra border check post project: An approval for commercial operation for four check posts has been received by the company. The company has commenced tolling in two check posts and expects to start toll collection in 2QFY2014 for the remaining check post. Further, another four check posts are expected to be operational by March 2014 and the company is expecting an average toll revenue to the tune of ~`35lakh/day in FY2014. Bijapur-Hungund: During the quarter, the Bijapur-Hungund project has commenced toll collection w.e.f May 2, 2012. Currently, the project has a daily toll collection of `27.2lakh/day. Hyderabad-Yadgiri: The COD for the 100% of Hyderabad-Yadgiri project has been issued by the NHAI. The company has started toll collection on the balance 25% portion from December 10, 2012. During the quarter, the project had a toll rate hike of 6.5% yoy w.e.f April 2013 and has a daily toll collection of `10.6lakh/day. Rohtak Panipat: The scheduled time for completion of the project is October 2013. However the company has already completed 98% of construction work and expects early completion of the project. Chhindwara project: Execution momentum has picked up from June 2012. During the quarter, SEL has booked revenues of ~`225cr in 1QFY2014. Shreenathji-Udaipur: The company has received the appointed date (April 18, 2013) for the Shreenathji Udaipur project and has started construction activity on the project. The company has already completed ~15.0% of construction work during the quarter.
Under-development projects
During the quarter, SEL has bagged an order worth `64.6cr from DMRC for construction of depot cum workshop, RCC elevated ramp, boundary wall, and land development at Badli. The company has also bagged a project worth ~`133cr in the irrigation sector from the Government of Uttar Pradesh. The company has completed 86% of the land acquisition for the Rohtak-Hissar project. The Management expects to achieve environment clearance by October 2013 post which it would commence construction on the project. The estimated total project cost is `1,210cr which includes a grant of ~`215cr and has a concession period of 22 years.
FY2015E Variation (%) 0.0 0.0 (10.6) Earlier Estimates 2,731 10.6 101 Revised Estimates 2,731 10.6 90 Variation (%) 0.0 0.0 (10.0)
2,462 10.6 89
The Management has given a revenue guidance of `2,500cr for FY2014. It expects the recently won BOT projects Gomti-ka-Chauraha, Solapur-Bijapur, Rohtak-Hissar and Rajsamand-Bhilwara to contribute to E&C revenue. Given the healthy order book (4.9x trailing revenue), we expect the company to report revenues of `2,462cr and `2,731cr for FY2014 and FY2015 respectively. We continue to maintain our Buy view on the stock with a SOTP based target price of `99, owing to robust order backlog of `9,602cr (4.9x trailing revenues), strong balance sheet and on expectation that the company would be able to meet the equity requirement for its under-construction/development projects through internal accruals or securitisation.
Segment Construction
Toll Toll Toll Annuity Toll Toll Toll Toll Toll Toll Toll Toll
FY2013 FY2014E FY2015E 4,400 1,811 10,143 5.6 4,439 2,458 12,124 4.9 4,606 2,727 14,003 5.1
5.3 6.0
Investment arguments
Sound balance sheet: SEL has a sound balance sheet with parent net debt/equity of 0.8x as of FY2013. The companys working capital position is also much better than its peers. This has insulated the companys earnings to a great extent in the prevailing high interest rate scenario (which has been a key concern impacting the sectors earnings), and has aided the company to outperform on the bourses. Funds tied up for projects in hand: SEL had successfully raised `400cr through stake dilution in SIPL (22.2% in August 2010). With the money raised, SEL is fully tied up for the projects in hand. This money raising was a timely move by SEL, given its then huge equity commitment towards under-development projects. Also, this helped the company to focus on project execution, which is SELs forte, leading to early completion of projects which is a rare phenomenon in the industry.
Key concerns
Interest rate: Road BOT projects are vulnerable to interest rate fluctuations and any hike in interest rates would increase SELs interest costs. Commodity risks: Road players are facing pressure from the recent price inflation in commodities such as cement, steel, bitumen and diesel, which have a direct impact on margins. Awarding from NHAI: Slowdown in awarding activity by NHAI would hit order inflow for road-focused players such as SEL.
Company background
SEL was incorporated in 1988. The company is a leading EPC and infrastructure development company based in Ahmedabad. SEL is present in the roads and highways (65% of order book), irrigation (15%) and mining (20%) sectors. The company forayed into the road sector in 1995 and has since then executed several projects for NHAI and state governments. Currently, SEL is one of the largest BOT players in India with 11 projects in its portfolio through its 80.0% owned subsidiary, SIPL.
13,415 12,946 14,897 60,873 66,532 74,520 5,725 1,811 5,897 2,040 6,044 2,462 6,308 2,146 6,533 2,731 7,033 2,339 11,408 12,726 14,226
798 1,002
ABL
CCCL IRB Infra ITNL IVRCL JP Assoc. L&T NCC Punj Lloyd Sadbhav Simplex In. Unity Infra
10
11
Key Ratios
Y/E March Valuation Ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) P/CEPS P/BV Dividend yield (%) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV / Total Assets Per Share Data (`) EPS (Basic) EPS (fully diluted) Cash EPS DPS Book Value Dupont Analysis EBIT margin Tax retention ratio Asset turnover (x) ROIC (Post-tax) Cost of Debt (Post Tax) Leverage (x) Operating ROE Returns (%) ROCE (Pre-tax) Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) ROE Turnover ratios (x) Asset Turnover (Gross Block) Inventory / Sales (days) Receivables (days) Payables (days) WC cycle (ex-cash) (days) Solvency ratios (x) Net debt to equity Net debt to EBITDA Interest Coverage 1.0 2.8 3.4 0.5 1.3 3.9 0.5 1.4 4.0 0.8 4.2 1.5 0.8 2.7 1.9 0.7 2.5 1.9 4.2 12 104 32 103 6.3 10 93 28 69 6.6 11 101 27 65 3.8 19 169 57 121 4.4 16 134 42 100 4.3 16 130 29 99 16.3 16.9 14.5 22.5 24.2 23.5 23.1 24.6 20.3 8.9 9.2 1.6 14.0 14.3 9.2 14.4 14.7 9.6 9.0 55.0 1.9 9.3 5.7 0.8 12.1 9.5 68.0 2.5 16.5 8.9 0.7 22.0 9.8 67.4 2.5 16.6 10.3 0.5 19.8 6.8 66.8 1.3 6.1 10.0 0.6 3.6 9.1 67.4 1.6 9.6 11.5 0.8 8.2 9.1 67.4 1.6 9.9 11.5 0.8 8.7 4.3 4.3 6.1 0.4 31.3 8.0 8.0 9.8 0.6 41.8 9.3 9.3 11.2 0.6 50.7 0.9 0.9 3.0 0.6 55.2 5.3 5.3 7.7 0.6 59.7 6.0 6.0 8.8 0.6 65.0 16.3 11.4 2.2 0.6 0.4 3.5 0.6 8.7 7.1 1.7 0.9 0.2 1.8 0.4 7.4 6.2 1.4 0.9 0.2 1.7 0.4 80.3 23.4 1.3 0.9 0.4 4.9 0.5 13.2 9.0 1.2 0.9 0.3 3.1 0.5 11.6 7.9 1.1 0.9 0.3 2.9 0.5 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013A FY2014E FY2015E
12
E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
Sadbhav Engg No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.
Ratings (Returns):
13