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Sail 1Q FY 2014
Sail 1Q FY 2014
NEUTRAL
CMP Target Price
Investment Period
`44 -
Quarterly performance-Standalone
Particulars (` cr) Net Sales EBITDA % margin Adjusted PAT 1QFY14 10,106 967 9.6 539 1QFY13 10,641 1,515 14.2 953 % chg (yoy) (5.0) (36.2) (467)bp (43.5) 4QFY13 12,162 914 7.5 430 % chg (qoq) (16.9) 5.8 206bp 25.3
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Net debt (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code Steel 18,007 8,997 1.2 102/38 392,431 10 19,368 5,742 SAIL.BO SAIL@IN
SAIL reported a disappointing 1QFY2014 profitability performance due to lower realizations and higher costs. We recommend a Neutral rating on the stock. Lower realizations drag top-line: During 1QFY2014, SAILs net sales declined by 5.0% yoy to `10,106cr (below our estimate of `10,452cr), mainly due to lower-than-expected realization which although was partially offset by higher volumes. The companys realizations stood at `38,573/tonne, compared to `42,563/tonne in 1QFY2013. Its volumes however increased by 4.8% yoy to 2.6mn tonne. Higher staff costs and other expenses dent EBITDA: The staff costs for the company increased 15.2% yoy to `2,295cr and other expenses increased by 5.0% yoy to `1,797cr. The EBITDA therefore decreased by 36.2% yoy to `967cr and EBITDA margin contracted by 467bp yoy to 9.6%. Higher interest expenses drag bottom-line further: The company reported a net interest expense of `63cr in 1QFY2014 compared to a net interest income of `82cr in 1QFY2013. The tax expenses however decreased by 77.7% yoy to `70cr due to MAT credit benefits in the quarter. Nevertheless, the adjusted net profit excluding forex loss of `88cr declined by 43.5% yoy to `539cr (above our estimate of `486cr). Outlook and valuation: We expect SAILs operational and financial performance to be impacted by 1) inability to maintain/raise sales volumes amidst slower demand growth; 2) higher employee costs, and 3) delays/cost overruns in its brownfield expansion projects. SAIL is on the verge of expanding its saleable steel production capacity from 12.4mn tonne to 20.2mn tonne by FY2015. However, the current rich valuation of 4.7x FY2015E EV/EBITDA discounts its anticipated volume growth over FY2013-FY2016. Hence, we recommend a Neutral rating on the stock. Key financials - Consolidated
Y/E March (` cr) Net sales % chg Net profit % chg EPS (`) EBITDA margin (%) P/E (x) P/BV (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) EV/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x) FY2012 45,665 6.8 3,545 (28.2) 8.6 13.3 4.8 0.5 9.2 7.8 0.6 4.5 FY2013E 44,060 (3.5) 2,181 (38.5) 5.3 11.1 7.5 0.4 5.4 5.8 0.7 6.0 FY2014E 54,227 23.1 2,187 0.3 5.3 9.2 8.3 0.4 5.2 4.7 0.6 6.3 FY2015E 63,538 17.2 2,804 28.2 6.8 10.9 6.5 0.4 6.5 6.6 0.5 4.7
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 80.0 11.3 5.4 3.3
3m (1.8) (29.6)
Bhavesh Chauhan
Tel: 022- 39357800 Ext: 6821 bhaveshu.chauhan@angelbroking.com
Vinay Rachh
Tel: 022- 39357600 Ext: 6841 vinay.rachh@angelbroking.com
1QFY14 10,106 4,057 40.1 1,153 11.4 2,295 22.7 1,797 17.8 9,301 805 8.0 162 967 9.6 (63) 393 97 (88) 521 5.2 70 13.4 451 539
1QFY13 10,641 4,335 40.7 1,224 11.5 1,992 18.7 1,710 16.1 9,262 1,379 13.0 137 1,515 14.2 82 402 71 (257) 1,010 9.5 314 31.1 696 953
yoy (%) (5.0) (6.4) (5.8) 15.2 5.0 0.4 (41.6) 18.3 (36.2) (2.2) 36.9 (48.4) (77.7) (35.3) (43.5)
4QFY13 12,162 5,654 46.5 1,209 9.9 2,473 20.3 2,081 17.1 11,417 746 6.1 168 914 7.5 (14) 184 8 16 741 6.1 294 39.7 447 430
qoq % (16.9) (28.3) (4.6) (7.2) (13.7) (18.5) 8.0 (3.7) 5.8 360.8 113.9 1,119.5 (29.7) (76.2) 1.0 25.3
FY13 43,961 19,186 43.6 4,820 11.0 8,637 19.6 7,278 16.6 28,505 4,040 9.2 637 4,677 10.6 79 1,393 107 (229) 3,241 7.4 1,070 33.0 2,170 2,400
FY12 45,639 21,706 47.6 4,425 9.7 7,917 17.3 (5,398) (11.8) 40,235 5,404 11.8 (688) 6,092 13.3 7,838 1,566 (91) 262 5,139 11.3 1,608 31.3 3,543 3,793
yoy (%) (3.7) (11.6) 8.9 9.1 (234.8) (29.2) (25.2) (192.7) (23.2) (99.0) (11.1) (217.4) (36.9) (33.4) (38.7) (36.7)
Actual
10,106 967 9.6 539
Estimates
10,452 870 8.3 486
Variation (%)
(3.3) 11.1 124bp 10.9
Result highlights
Lower realizations drag top-line
During 1QFY2014, SAILs net sales declined by 5.0% yoy to `10,106cr (below our estimate of `10,452cr), mainly due to lower realizations which although were partially offset by higher volumes. The companys realizations stood at `38,573/tonne, compared to `42,563/tonne in 1QFY2013. Its volumes however increased by 4.8% yoy to 2.6mn tonne. Although production stood at 3.2mn tonne, sales volumes stood at only 2.62mn tonne, indicating SAILs inability to raise volumes amidst low domestic demand.
(mn tonnes)
( ` cr)
1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13 4QFY13 1QFY14 Sales volume (LHS) YoY Growth
(%)
6,000 4,000 2,000 0 3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13 4QFY13 1QFY14 Net revenue (LHS) yoy chg (RHS)
yoy (%) (9.4) (9.3) (10.7) (44.2) 9.9 0.2 (39.1) (44.3)
qoq (%) 1.5 (0.2) (12.4) 31.9 13.3 5.5 29.3 20.4
(%)
2.0
(5.0)
8,000
( ` cr)
(%)
400 200 0
3QFY12 4QFY12 1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13 4QFY13 1QFY14 Adj. PAT (LHS) yoy chg (RHS)
(%)
8.0
( ` cr)
600
515
539
(20)
Investment rationale
Slow progress on capacity continues
SAIL is increasing its saleable steel production capacity from 12.4mn tonne to 20.2mn tonne by FY2015 at a capex of `70,000cr. We expect strong profitability from these plants, with captive iron ore backing the upcoming steel expansion. Also, we expect SAIL's older loss-making plants to be modernized as part of its modernization program. However, the company has reported delays in its expansion projects over the last few quarters. Going forward, we do not rule out further delays and cost over-runs in its expansion plans.
Angel forecast
5.3 6.8
Variation (%)
(14.6) (9.0)
Company background
Incorporated in 1973, SAIL is one of the leading steel-making companies in India with an annual saleable steel production capacity of 12.4mn tonne. Major plants owned by SAIL are located at Bhilai, Bokaro, Durgapur, Rourkela, Burnpur and Salem. The companys steel plants are fully backed by captive iron ore mines. SAIL has a Navratna status; thus, it enjoys significant operational and financial autonomy. During February 2011, SAIL received clearances for Chiria iron ore mines, which have proven reserves of 1.8bn tonne.
16.6 16.6
10.9
12.0 12.0
(27.9)
8.6 8.6
(28.2)
5.3 5.3
(38.5)
5.3 5.3
0.3
6.8 6.8
28.2
(10,371) (10,621)
12,908 (11,064)
Key ratios
Y/E March Valuation ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) P/CEPS P/BV Dividend yield (%) EV/Sales EV/EBITDA EV/Total assets Per share data (`) EPS (Basic) EPS (fully diluted) Cash EPS DPS Book value DuPont analysis EBIT margin Tax retention ratio (%) Asset turnover (x) RoIC (Post-tax) Cost of debt (post tax) Leverage (x) Operating RoE Returns (%) RoCE (Pre-tax) Angel RoIC (pre-tax) RoE Turnover ratios (x) Asset turnover (gross block) Inventory (days) Receivables (days) Payables (days) WC cycle (days) Solvency ratios (x) Net debt to equity Net debt to EBITDA Interest coverage (0.2) (0.5) 16.8 0.0 0.1 12.9 0.2 1.5 6.7 0.3 2.2 4.7 0.3 2.6 3.0 0.3 2.0 3.1 1.2 180 33 122 70 1.1 225 36 119 69 1.2 194 33 103 77 0.9 270 37 98 95 0.9 200 35 93 89 0.9 200 35 90 81 17.8 60.9 22.2 11.1 38.0 13.9 7.8 22.7 9.2 5.8 13.5 5.4 4.7 8.8 5.2 6.6 9.5 6.5 19.6 66.5 1.7 22.1 22.1 14.3 68.2 1.2 12.2 1.7 0.0 12.4 9.9 68.8 1.0 7.0 2.9 0.2 7.9 7.9 67.0 0.9 4.6 2.4 0.3 5.2 5.7 80.0 1.0 4.5 3.4 0.3 4.8 7.0 80.0 1.1 6.1 5.6 0.3 6.3 16.6 16.6 20.0 3.3 81.7 11.7 11.7 15.6 2.6 89.7 9.2 9.2 12.4 1.0 96.4 5.8 5.8 8.7 2.0 99.9 5.3 5.3 9.9 2.0 102.8 6.8 6.8 12.8 2.0 107.3 2.7 2.2 0.5 7.5 0.3 1.4 0.2 3.8 2.8 0.5 5.9 0.4 2.5 0.3 4.8 3.6 0.5 2.3 0.6 4.5 0.4 7.5 5.1 0.4 4.5 0.7 6.0 0.4 8.3 4.5 0.4 4.5 0.6 6.3 0.4 6.5 3.4 0.4 4.5 0.5 4.7 0.5 FY2010 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013E FY2014E FY2015E
10
E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Disclosure of Interest Statement 1. Analyst ownership of the stock 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock 4. Broking relationship with company covered
SAIL No No No No
Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors
Ratings (Returns):
11