COMPANY UPDATE 8 March 2011

Ace Hardware Indonesia

Lifting the bar

NEUTRAL RP2,400

Maintained @07/03/11 Target: Rp2,900 Retail

ACES IJ / ACES.JK

Erwan Teguh erwan.teguh@cimb.com / Cindy Effendi cindy.effendi@cimb.com

Maintain NEUTRAL. We maintain our NEUTRAL call and DCF-based target price
of Rp2,900 (WACC lowered from 13% to 12%, risk-free rate cut from 9.5% to 8.5%), which implies a 25% premium to our target market P/E of 14x. Our decision to preserve our premium valuation for Ace Hardware is underlined by managements consistent execution and transparency. We trim our FY11-12 earnings estimates by 1-3% to account for lower same-store-sales growth (SSSG) due to rather aggressive space expansion as well as slight margin pressure. We still expect Ace to deliver 26% earnings CAGR over the next 3 years. Bigger format to cement position. Ace and its group of companies are opening bigger retail outlets, which it hopes will cement its leading market position as well as enhance branding. The group has also earmarked growth of at least 15k sq m p.a. for Ace Hardware. While SSSG may suffer in the near term, we believe revenue will grow. In the longer term, we also expect growth and margins to be sustained. Given managements execution and track record, we view this strategy positively. 2010 preview, 2011 outlook. We expect 2010 performance to be in line with our expectations. We believe sales grew 20% yoy to Rp1.68tr, following some 24k sq m of new space. Margins could be slightly better due to lower import tariff and an appropriate sales mix. 2011 earnings are projected to grow 30% given 6.7% SSSG with margins probably inching lower due to cost pressure. Space growth is expected to be 29k sq m, including the launch of its flagship store in Alam Sutera last Feb.
Financial summary
FYE Dec Revenue (Rp bn) EBITDA (Rp bn) EBITDA margins (%) Pretax profit (Rp bn) Net profit (Rp bn) EPS (Rp) EPS growth (%) P/E (x) Core EPS (Rp) Core EPS growth (%) Core P/E (x) Gross DPS (Rp) Dividend yield (%) P/BV (x) ROE (%) Net cash per share (Rp) P/FCFE (x) EV/EBITDA (x) % change in EPS estimates CIMB/Consensus (x)
Source: Company, CIMB Research, Bloomberg

2008 1,280 188 14.7% 183 131 76 117.5% 31.5 74 108.3% 32.6 3 0.1% 6.1 20.7% 173 62.4 20.3

2009 1,398 211 15.1% 206 154 90 18.2% 26.7 85 16.2% 28.1 7 0.3% 4.7 20.0% 273 191.6 17.3

2010F 1,687 262 15.5% 226 170 99 9.9% 24.2 99 15.9% 24.2 9 0.4% 4.1 18.2% 288 23.8 13.8 2.7% 0.97

2011F 2,117 347 16.4% 290 217 127 28.0% 18.9 127 28.0% 18.9 13 0.5% 3.5 19.9% 302 83.8 10.4 -3.0% 1.00

2012F 2,720 457 16.8% 379 285 166 31.0% 14.5 166 31.0% 14.5 17 0.7% 2.8 21.6% 365 25.6 7.6 -1.1% 1.10

Price chart
4.50
2930.0 2730.0 2530.0 2330.0 2130.0 1930.0 1730.0 1530.0 1330.0 Ma r-10 Aug-10 J a n-11
Ace Ha rdwa re Indone s ia

Market capitalisation & share price info

4.00 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00

Volume 1m (R.H.S ca le )

Market cap 12-mth price range 3-mth avg daily volume # of shares (m) Est. free float (%) Conv. secs (m) Conv. price ( )
Source: Company, CIMB Research, Bloomberg

Rp4,116bn/US$468m Rp2,950/Rp1,400 0.2m 1,715 30.0 None

Share price perf. (%) Relative Absolute Major shareholders Kawan Lama Sejahtera

1M (3.8) (2.0)

3M 12M (3.5) 25.9 (7.7) 73.9 % held 60.0

Source: Bloomberg

Please read carefully the important disclosures at the end of this publication.

INDONESIA

Outlook
2010 to be in line with expectations. 2010 performance is expected to be in line with our and consensus estimates. We believe sales grew 20% to Rp1.68tr, 3% higher than our estimate, mainly driven by space expansion as we believe SSSG hit 5.6%, marginally below our expectation of 6.3%. Ace managed to open six new stores last year, a total of 24k sq m of new space or an addition of 22% yoy. We estimate the gross margin to hit 42.5%, which is better than expected due to lower import tariff and a better sales mix. The bottomline should be in line with our estimate and we expect it gained 16% yoy to Rp170bn. Sales grew 36% in Jan 2011. Jan sales remained upbeat at Rp174bn, up 36% yoy but down 3% mom, as the promotional sales period was extended to Mar 2011. Hence, we may also see a strong sales showing in Feb. SSSG in Jan soared to 14% as stores in Bali displayed robust recovery.
Figure 1: Jan sales reached Rp174bn on the back of 14% SSSG Monthly sales
Rp bn 200.0 170.0 140.0 110.0 80.0 50.0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Cumulative SSSG
35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% -5.0% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2007 2010 2008 2011 2009

Source: Company, CIMB Research

2011 outlook. In 2011, we expect sales to grow another 23% to Rp2.1tr, again to be driven by space addition rather than SSSG, in our view. Ace will add a total 29k sq m of new space or an addition of 23%, rolling out another five new stores in 2H11 in Java and Sulawesi, following the recent launch of its flagship store in Alam Sutera. The store occupies 15k sq m, equivalent to 9% of Aces total space, and carries 45k SKUs, making it the largest Ace store to date. By end-2011, Ace would operate 159k sq m of gross selling space with 51 stores, making it the fastest growing retailer by space. We see FY11 earnings trending higher and believe Ace is set to deliver 26% earnings CAGR over the next three years.
Figure 2: Space expansion Allocated capex of Rp120bn for store openings
sqm 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011F
Total expansion space Capex - RHS

Ace to grow space by 23% in FY11, fastest among peers

Rp bn 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0

ACES 75.0% 60.0% 45.0% 30.0% 15.0% 0.0% -15.0% 2005 2006 2007 2008

RALS

MAPI

2009

2010

2011F

2012F

Source: Company, CIMB Research

[ 2 ]

Going for bigger size. Ace has been rather aggressive in its space addition, adding 23% within the last two years. The average size per store almost doubled to 5k sq m since 2009. Three of the five stores to be introduced this year are 3-4k sq m in size. Ace is opening bigger retail outlets to cement its leading market position and enhance brand awareness amid fiercer competition given the introduction of new players in the segment, particularly the Singapore-based home improvement chain Home-fix, which entered Indonesia in 2007, and the expansion of local brands, i.e. Rumah Kita, Super home and more. The larger store formats are intended to lift the entry barriers and defend Aces market share. Although productivity per sq m would be lower in the short run, we still view this strategy positively.
Figure 3: Ace focuses on larger stores, size per store doubled in FY10-11
sqm 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011F Additional space Av e store size sqm / store 6,000.0 5,000.0 4,000.0 3,000.0 2,000.0 1,000.0 -

Source: Company, CIMB Research

SSSG to suffer near term. Past experience in Bali and Semarang indicates a temporary downtrend for SSSG. SSSG in Bali recovered within at least one year, i.e. after the new store matured. Based on this, SSSG may be pressured this year given the addition of another 29k sq m with the opening of its flagship store in Alam Sutera (close to Ace Karawaci) and the future launch of new stores in Surabaya (by May 2011) and South Sulawesi (in Aug 2011). Consequently, we lower our 2011 SSSG estimate from 8% to 6.2%, in line with managements expectation of 6-7%. Margin remains resilient. The gross margin peaked in 3Q10 at 43.2%, a record high, as Ace benefited from lower import tax and a better product mix. However, we expect the margin to normalise in FY10 to 42.5%. Almost 80% of Aces product offerings are unique and available exclusively at Ace stores, which we believe will allow it to weather near-term cost pressure. To account for the high inflationary environment, we lower our gross margin estimate to 41.5-42% in FY11-12, still relatively high compared with other retailers.

Valuation and recommendation

FY11-12 earnings forecasts trimmed 1-3%. We trim our FY11-12 earnings estimates by 1-3% on the back of higher space expansion, which we think may affect SSSG in the near term. We expect SSSG in FY11-12 to fall to 6.7-7%. On top of that, we also factor in some cost pressure and adjust our gross margin assumptions by 20-35bp in FY1112.
Figure 4: Forecast changes
Previous 2010 Retail space, gross in sqm SSG Sales EBIT Core profit Gross margin Operating margin Core profit margin
Source: Company, CIMB Research

New 2012 159,905 7.8% 2,729.9 368.8 287.6 41.8% 13.5% 10.5% 2010 132,350 5.6% 1,687.0 212.9 169.8 42.4% 12.6% 10.1% 2011 161,650 6.7% 2,117.1 274.3 217.3 41.6% 13.0% 10.3% 2012 176,650 6.9% 2,720.0 363.6 284.5 41.3% 13.4% 10.5% 2010 1.7% -10.6% 3.1% 2.6% 2.7% -0.2% -0.5% -0.4%

changes 2011 11.6% -16.4% -2.5% -4.2% -3.0% -0.8% -1.8% -0.6% 2012 10.5% -11.6% -0.4% -1.4% -1.1% -1.4% -1.0% -0.7%

2011 144,905 8.0% 2,170.4 286.4 224.0 41.9% 13.2% 10.3%

130,110 6.3% 1,635.6 207.4 165.3 42.5% 12.7% 10.1%

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Maintain NEUTRAL. We maintain our NEUTRAL call and DCF-based target price of Rp2,900 (WACC lowered from 13% to 12%, risk-free rate cut from 9.5% to 8.5%), which implies a 25% premium to our target market P/E of 14x. Our decision to preserve our premium valuation for Ace Hardware is underlined by managements consistent execution and transparency as well as 3-years earnings CAGR of 26%. Key catalysts could come from on-schedule store openings.
Figure 5: Aces P/E Vs. JCI
ACES premium (disc) to JCI (RHS) 25x 20x 15x 20% 10x 5x 0x Sep-08 Sep-09 Nov-07 Nov-08 May-08 May-09 Nov-09 May-10 Sep-10 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10 -20% ACES 1y r fw d P/E JCI 1y r fw d P/E 100%

Vs. peers
RALS IJ 25.0x 20.0x
60%

ACES IJ

MAPI IJ

15.0x 10.0x 5.0x 0.0x Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Jul-08 Jul-09 Nov-07 Nov-08 Nov-09 Jul-10
-60%

Source: CIMB Research

Figure 6: Sector comparisons

Bloomberg ticker ACES IJ MAPI IJ MDRN IJ RALS IJ Price (Local) 2,400 2,400 2,100 800 Target price Mkt cap (Local) (US$ m) 2,900 468 840 453 3,000 153 1,060 646 Core P/E (x) CY2011 CY2012 18.9 14.5 15.4 N/A 42.6 20.9 13.0 10.6 22.5 15.3 17.1 22.0 17.9 16.6 17.3 18.2 9.2 7.5 3.1 6.6 12.2 12.7 11.3 10.6 11.7 15.5 14.9 18.1 14.6 14.1 12.6 14.9 8.1 5.7 2.8 5.5 10.4 10.1 10.3 9.4 10.1 11.8 3-yr EPS CAGR (%) 24.7 N/A 279.6 14.5 106.3 18.9 21.2 22.1 4.1 36.7 20.6 2.4 47.8 11.0 20.4 22.9 28.8 29.8 17.0 24.6 38.8 P/BV (x) CY2011 3.5 2.4 3.2 2.0 2.8 2.6 8.4 4.6 2.8 3.1 4.3 1.3 0.6 0.8 0.9 3.2 2.0 2.4 3.6 2.8 2.9 ROE (%) CY2011 19.9 15.4 15.2 15.8 16.6 16.2 41.4 29.6 17.7 19.6 24.9 15.0 8.2 27.7 17.0 28.9 16.6 22.3 36.4 26.1 21.6 Div yield (%) CY2011 0.5 0.4 0.9 3.1 1.2 2.3 3.6 0.0 2.8 1.7 2.1 6.9 1.8 4.9 4.5 2.2 2.4 6.4 7.5 4.6 3.0

Ace Mitra MDRN Ramayana Simple average Indonesia Big C CP ALL HMPRO Robinson Siam Global House Simple average Thailand Asia File Pelikan Xingquan Simple average Malaysia Daphne Embry Giordano Sa Sa Simple average HongKong Simple average

Recom. N O O O

BIGC TB CPALL TB HMPRO TB ROBINS TB GLOBAL TB

U O O O O

74.75 39.75 8.85 22.10 10.10

80.00 54.00 12.00 29.00 13.00

1,967 5,864 1,265 806 318

AF MK PELI MK XISH MK

N N O

4.30 1.11 1.26

4.84 1.40 2.05

164 188 128

210 HK 1388 HK 709 HK 178 HK

O O O O

6.68 6.08 4.37 4.08

9.86 9.44 6.34 6.81

1,405 318 840 1,468

O = Outperform, N = Neutral, U = Underperform, TB = Trading Buy and TS = Trading Sell Source: Company, CIMB Research

[ 4 ]

Nov-10

Financial tables
PROFIT & LOSS (Rp bn, FYE Dec) Revenue Operating expenses EBITDA Depreciation & amortisation EBIT Net interest & invt income Associates contribution Exceptional items Others Pretax profit Tax Minority interests Net profit Adj. wt. shares (m) Unadj. year-end shares (m) BALANCE SHEET (Rp bn, end Dec) Fixed assets Intangible assets Other long-term assets Total non-current assets Cash and equivalents Stocks Trade debtors Other current assets Total current assets Trade creditors Short-term borrowings Other current liabilities Total current liabilities Long-term borrowings Other long-term liabilities Total long-term liabilities Shareholders funds Minority interests NTA/share (Rp) CASH FLOW (Rp bn, FYE Dec) Pretax profit Depreciation & noncash adj. Working capital changes Cash tax paid Others Cash flow from operations Capex Net investments & sale of FA Others Cash flow from investing Debt raised/(repaid) Equity raised/(repaid) Dividends paid Cash interest & others Cash flow from financing Change in cash Change in net cash/(debt) Ending net cash/(debt)
Source: Company, CIMB Research, Bloomberg

KEY RATIOS 2008 1,280 (1,092) 188 (24) 164 17 0 0 2 183 (53) 0 131 1,715 1,715 2009 1,398 (1,187) 211 (33) 178 21 0 0 7 206 (52) 0 154 1,715 1,715 2010F 1,687 (1,425) 262 (49) 213 18 0 0 (4) 226 (57) 0 170 1,715 1,715 2011F 2,117 (1,770) 347 (73) 274 21 0 0 (5) 290 (72) 0 217 1,715 1,715 2012F 2,720 (2,263) 457 (93) 364 25 0 0 (10) 379 (95) 0 285 1,715 1,715 (FYE Dec) Revenue growth (%) EBITDA growth (%) Pretax margins (%) Net profit margins (%) Interest cover (x) Effective tax rates (%) Net dividend payout (%) Debtors turnover (days) Stock turnover (days) Creditors turnover (days) 2008 2009 44.3 9.2 77.7 12.4 14.3 14.8 10.2 11.0 N/A 83,289.0 28.8 25.1 3.2 5.6 3.1 2.1 41.3 38.3 16.5 10.7 2010F 20.7 23.9 13.4 10.1 N/A 25.0 6.5 2.0 27.6 6.9 2011F 25.5 32.7 13.7 10.3 N/A 25.0 7.2 2.0 31.3 6.6 2012F 28.5 31.4 13.9 10.5 N/A 25.0 7.2 2.0 31.3 6.6

KEY DRIVERS 2008 83 0 88 171 297 198 8 117 619 52 0 40 92 0 21 21 677 0 395 2009 105 0 90 195 469 96 8 203 776 30 0 44 73 0 30 30 868 0 506 2010F 228 0 79 307 494 160 10 140 804 34 0 51 85 0 31 31 995 0 580 2011F 321 0 98 418 519 203 13 176 910 43 0 63 107 0 33 33 1,190 0 694 2012F 360 0 124 484 626 263 16 226 1,131 56 0 80 136 0 34 34 1,445 0 843 (FYE Dec) Rental to turnover (%) Salary to turnover (%) Same store sales growth (%) 2009 3.9% 6.1% -1.7% 2010F 4.2% 6.5% 5.6% 2011F 4.1% 6.4% 7.1% 2012F 3.6% 5.7% 7.3%

12M - FORWARD FD CORE P/E (X) 2008 183 24 (23) (53) 27 158 (58) (33) 0 (92) 0 (34) (6) 6 (34) 32 32 297 2009 206 33 4 (52) (240) (48) (55) 125 0 70 0 48 (12) 114 150 171 171 469 2010F 226 49 21 (57) (28) 212 (112) 73 0 (39) 0 (14) (16) (118) (148) 25 25 494 2011F 290 73 (77) (72) (35) 178 (129) 0 0 (129) 0 0 (22) (3) (25) 24 24 517 2012F 379 93 (108) (95) (39) 230 (69) 0 0 (69) 0 0 (29) (23) (52) 109 109 626
23.0 21.0 19.0 17.0 15.0 13.0 11.0 9.0 7.0 Mar-08

Jul-08

Nov-08

Mar-09

Jul-09

Nov-09

Mar-10

Jul-10

Nov-10

Mar-11

[ 5 ]

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[6]

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RECOMMENDATION FRAMEWORK #1 ** STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS

OUTPERFORM: The stock's total return is expected to exceed a relevant benchmark's total return by 5% or more over the next 12 months. NEUTRAL: The stock's total return is expected to be within +/-5% of a relevant benchmark's total return. UNDERPERFORM: The stock's total return is expected to be below a relevant benchmark's total return by 5% or more over the next 12 months. TRADING BUY: The stock's total return is expected to exceed a relevant benchmark's total return by 5% or more over the next 3 months. TRADING SELL: The stock's total return is expected to be below a relevant benchmark's total return by 5% or more over the next 3 months.

SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS
OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months. NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months. UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months. TRADING BUY: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to outperform the relevant primary market index over the next 3 months. TRADING SELL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expected to underperform the relevant primary market index over the next 3 months.

* This framework only applies to stocks listed on the Singapore Stock Exchange, Bursa Malaysia, Stock Exchange of Thailand and Jakarta Stock Exchange. Occasionally, it is permitted for the total expected returns to be temporarily outside the prescribed ranges due to extreme market volatility or other justifiable company or industry-specific reasons.

CIMB Research Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No. 198701620M)

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RECOMMENDATION FRAMEWORK #2 ** STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS

OUTPERFORM: Expected positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months. NEUTRAL: Expected total returns of between -15% and +15% over the next 12 months.

SECTOR RECOMMENDATIONS
OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, has a high number of stocks that are expected to have total returns of +15% or better over the next 12 months. NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, has either (i) an equal number of stocks that are expected to have total returns of +15% (or better) or -15% (or worse), or (ii) stocks that are predominantly expected to have total returns that will range from +15% to -15%; both over the next 12 months. UNDERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, has a high number of stocks that are expected to have total returns of -15% or worse over the next 12 months. TRADING BUY: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, has a high number of stocks that are expected to have total returns of +15% or better over the next 3 months. TRADING SELL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, has a high number of stocks that are expected to have total returns of -15% or worse over the next 3 months.

UNDERPERFORM: Expected negative total returns of 15% or more over the next 12 months. TRADING BUY: Expected positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 3 months. TRADING SELL: Expected negative total returns of 15% or more over the next 3 months.

** This framework only applies to stocks listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and China listings on the Singapore Stock Exchange. Occasionally, it is permitted for the total expected returns to be temporarily outside the prescribed ranges due to extreme market volatility or other justifiable company or industry-specific reasons.

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