Commodities Daily Report

Monday| August 19, 19 2013

International Commodities

Content
Overview Precious Metals Energy Base Metals Important Events for today

Research Team
Reena Rohit Chief Manager Non-Agri Currencies and Commodities Reena.rohit@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6134 Anish Vyas Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Commodities Daily Report

Monday| August 19, 19 2013

International Commodities
Overview
Asian equities trading on a mixed note today. Japan trade deficit data comes on the negative side. Rupee touches a new all-time time low of 62.46 today. Asian equities are trading on a mixed note today as data in the morning showed a widening of trade deficit in Japan. But sentiments could turn positive over the trade as last weeks economic indicators from the Euro Zone and the UK were positive along with fairly upbeat data from the US. But concerns remain over sentiments in the Indian markets that are extremely weak on account of steps and measures that the RBI is taking in order to arrest sharp depreciation in the Rupee and curb a burgeoning CAD. The US Dollar Index (DX) appreciated around 0.15 percent in the last week on the back of rise in risk aversion in the global market sentiments. Further, favorable economic data from the country increased concerns that Federal will pullback its stimulus measures es in the current year. However, sharp upside in the currency was capped on account of unexpected slip in US consumer sentiments data. The currency touched a weekly high of 82.0 and closed at 81.29 on Friday. ound 1.6 percent. The On a weekly basis, Indian Rupee depreciated around currency depreciated on the back of decline in industrial production and manufacturing data. Additionally, rise in inflation data, dollar demand from importers along with weak market sentiments exerted downside pressure on the currency. Further, strength in the DX coupled with outflow of foreign funds from equities and debt acted as a negative factor. The currency touched a weekly low of 62.0 and closed at 61.65 on Friday. For the month of August 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs.1601 Rs.1601.20 crores th ($262.53 million) as on 16 August 2013. Year to date basis, net capital th inflows stood at Rs.67693.50 crores ($12748.30 million) till 16 August 2013. day perspective, we expect Indian Rupee to depreciate on From the intra-day the back of weak domestic markets, mixed global sentiments coupled with strength in the DX. Additionally, dollar ollar demand from oil importers will exert downside pressure on the currency.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last INR/$ (Spot) 61.65 Prev day -0.4 0.4

as on 16 August, 2013 w-o-w -1.6 m-o-m -3.9 y-o-y -9.6

$/Euro (Spot)

1.3329

-0.1 0.1

-0.1

1.6

8.1

Dollar Index NIFTY

81.29

0.1

0.2

-1.7

2.3

5565.7

0.8

-6.8

-6.8

3.4

SENSEX

18789.3

0.7

-5.8

-5.8

2.7

DJIA

15081.5

-0.2 0.2

-2.2

-3.0

13.8

S&P

1655.8

-0.3 0.3

-1.2

-1.2

17.0

Source: Reuters

The Euro depreciated around 0.1 percent in the last week on account of strength in the DX. Further, weak global market sentiments exerted downside pressure on the currency. However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned as a result of favorable economic data from the region. The currency touched a weekly low of 1.3205 and closed at 1.333 on Friday. In today's session, we expect Euro to trade lower on the back of strength gth in the DX. Further, mixed global market sentiments will act as a negative factor. The Pound gained around 0.8 percent in the last week as supportive economic data suggested a revival in the UK, thus supporting gains in the currency. The UK and the Euro Zone economy are showing signs of recovery and this factor is likely to support upside e movement in the short-term. short We expect Pound to trade on a negative note in today's trade on the back of stronger DX. Additionally, mixed global market sentiments will exert downside pressure on the currency.

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Commodities Daily Report

Monday| August 19, 19 2013

International Commodities
Bullion Gold
Topping $1379.6/oz, Spot Gold prices rose almost 5 percent during last week. A weaker Dollar Index supported gains in the yellow metal and on the fundamental front, the bounce back in SPDR Gold Holdings came in as a major supportive factor. But gains in the MCX were phenomenally higher over the week, with the near-month month gold contract on the Indian bourses rising more than 10 percent. Rupee depreciation was the main factor that supported sharp gains in prices on the MCX. Thus, proving time and again that the currency factor plays a crucial role in determining commodity prices. Prices on the MCX touched a high of Rs30,969/10gm, levels seen in January13. On a month-on-month month basis the commodity is up around 8 percent and year-to-date, losses are seen around d 3.2 percent, while in dollar terms gold is down around 17.5 percent year-to to-date. Market Highlights - Gold (% change)
Gold Gold (Spot) Unit $/oz Last 1375.8 Prev. day 0.7 as on 16 August, 2013 WoW 4.7 MoM 7.9 YoY -14.8

Gold (Spot Mumbai) Gold (LBMA-PM Fix) Comex Gold (Oct13) MCX Gold (Oct13)

Rs/10 gms $/oz

28000.0

0.7

5.3

5.3

-6.0

1369.3

3.0

4.6

5.6

-15.2

$/oz

1371.7

0.7

2.8

2.7

-15.1

Rs /10 gms

29186.0

4.6

4.6

10.8

-3.2

Source: Reuters

Silver
Spot Silver prices gained around 13 percent in the last week and while the white metal took cues from rise in gold prices, it was additionally the increase in prices es of industrial metals also that supported increase in silver. The commodity market a phenomenal weekly performance on the MCX with prices jumping around 9.3 percent and testing a high of Rs51,035/kg last week. Positive economic indicators from the Euro Zone, UK and the US have revived hopes of recovery in the advanced economies, thus providing support when the emerging and developing economies witness slowdown.

Market Highlights - Silver (% change)

Silver Silver (Spot) Silver (Spot Mumbai) Silver (LBMA) Comex Silver (Sept13) MCX Silver (Sept13) Unit $/oz Rs/1 kg Last 23.2 42250.0 Prev day 1.0 1.4

as on 16 August, 2013 WoW 13.0 1.6 MoM 20.5 1.6 YoY -17.3 -22.8

$/oz $/ oz

2283.0 22.9

3.8 5.3

12.4 12.4

15.1 11.9

-19.0 -18.7

Rs / kg

46573.0

9.4

9.4

16.0

-13.2

Outlook
Overall trend in gold prices in the international markets is expected to be supportive. In the Indian markets, a weaker Rupee will additionally support upside in precious metal prices on the MCX. Technical Outlook
Unit Spot Gold MCX Gold Oct13 Spot Silver MCX Silver Sept13 $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz Rs/kg valid for August 19, 2013 Support 1369/1360 30600/30400 23.40/23.00 50200/49600 Resistance 1387/1394 31000/31150 23.80/24.10

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Spot Gold

Source: Telequote

51100/51600

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Commodities Daily Report

Monday| August 19, 19 2013

International Commodities
Energy Crude Oil
In the last week, Nymex crude oil prices witnessed gains to the tune of 1.6 percent, with prices testing a high of $108.17/bbl. Geopolitical tensions, declining inventories and positive economic data from the Euro Zone, UK and the US are additionally acting g as a supportive factor. On the MCX last week, the August crude oil contract increased 5.3 percent and touched a high of Rs6776/bbl. Weakness in the Rupee acted as an additional supportive factor for oil prices in the domestic markets. Year-to-date, oil prices are up more than 17 percent and on the MCX the commodity is up a whopping 35 percent. This difference in gains in prices is mainly on the back of Rupee weakness. Geopolitical Tensions in the Middle East Clashes in Egypt have raised fears of a supply upply disruption from the Middle East. Due to escalation in the geopolitical problem in the Egypt, oil prices are trading at a premium and until these tensions ease, the commodity will continue to trade higher. While this is supportive, a host of positive economic indicators from the Euro Zone, UK and the UK have increased a recovery in the advanced economic and this has come in as a relief to the world markets amid a weakening economic scenario in the emerging a and developing economies. Outlook Escalating geopolitical concerns in Egypt coupled with an expected decline in weekly oil inventories will continue to support oil prices higher. In the Indian markets, a weaker Rupee will be additionally supportive. Market Highlights - Crude Oil (% change)
Crude Oil Brent (Spot) Nymex Crude (Sep 13) ICE Brent Crude (Sep13) MCX Crude (Aug 13) Unit $/bbl $/bbl Last 113.8 107.5 Prev. day 0.2 0.1 WoW 3.9 1.4 as on 16 August, 2013 MoM 2.8 0.5 YoY -1.9 12.4

$/bbl

110.4

-0.6

2.0

1.6

-2.9

Rs/bbl

6533.0

2.2

2.2

3.8

22.2

Source: Reuters

Market Highlights - Natural Gas (% change)

Natural Gas (NG) Nymex NG MCX NG (Aug 13) Unit $/mmbtu Rs/ mmbtu Last 3.372 211.5 Prev. day -1.5 2.3

as on 16 August, 2013 MoM -7.99 -2.49 YoY 24.38 37.52

Source: Reuters

WoW 4.82 6.98

Technical Chart NYMEX Crude Oil

Source: Telequote

Technical Chart NYMEX Natural Gas

Technical Outlook
Unit NYMEX Crude Oil MCX Crude Aug13 $/bbl Rs/bbl

valid for August 19, 2013 Support 106.30/105.30 6680/6620 Resistance 108.20/109.10 6800/6860

Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report

Monday| August 19, 19 2013

International Commodities
Base Metals
Base metals witnessed a positive movement in the last week with the complete complex closed higher. In the Indian markets, gains were higher than that on the LME on account of the weaker Rupee. Positive economic data from the advanced economic is supporting base metal prices amid a slowing Chinese economy along with overall concerns on growth in emerging ng and developing economies. Market Highlights - Base Metals (% change)
Unit LME Copper (3 month) MCX Copper (Aug13) LME Aluminum $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Last as on 16 August, 2013 WoW MoM YoY

Prev. day

7374.0 451.2 1944.0 114.0 14879.0 909.3 2249.0 135.0 2002.5

0.3 2.2 1.9 2.6 0.6 2.4 1.7 2.7 1.9

1.4 2.2 3.8 2.6 1.1 2.4 3.3 2.7 3.2

-6.0 9.4 7.8 8.2 6.6 9.9 10.6 12.3 7.6

-2.2 7.3 4.7 11.5 -4.9 4.2 18.7 28.4 11.0

Copper
Copper prices touched a weekly high of $7420/tonne in the last week and closed the week with gains of 1.4 percent. On the MCX, the near nearmonth copper contract rose almost 6 percent and the red metal tested a high of Rs468/kg. Month-to-date, date, copper prices on the LME and the MCX are up by 7 percent and 11 percent respectively. Gains on the MCX are higher mainly due to the weakness in the Rupee. Outlook Base metal prices are expected to trade on a positive note in intraday trade as global market sentiments are positive due to last weeks upbeat economic indicators. Sharp gains are expected to be seen on the MCX on account of Rupee depreciation. Technical Outlook
Unit MCX Copper Aug13 MCX Zinc Aug 13 MCX Lead Aug 13 MCX Aluminum Aug13 MCX Nickel Aug 13 Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg valid for August 19, 2013 Support 464/460 123.80/122.80 140.80/139.80 119.50/118.50 928/920 Resistance 470/474 125.80/126.80 142.80/143.80 121.50/122.50 945/955

(3 month) MCX Aluminum (Aug13) LME Nickel (3 month) MCX Nickel (Aug13) LME Lead (3 month) MCX Lead (Aug13) LME Zinc (3 month) MCX Zinc (Aug13)
Source: Reuters

Rs /kg

$/tonne

Rs /kg

$/tonne

Rs /kg

$/tonne

Rs /kg

118.1

1.9

1.9

8.3

17.9

LME Inventories
Unit Copper Aluminum Nickel Zinc Lead tonnes tonnes tonnes tonnes tonnes 16th August 548,075 5,438,675 206,118 1,037,275 190,925 15th August 584,200 5,444,475 205,878 1,039,875 191,975 Actual Change -36,125 -5,800 240 -2,600 -1,050 (%) Change -6.2 -0.1 0.1 -0.3 -0.5
Source: Reuters

Technical Chart LME Copper

Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report

Monday| August 19, 19 2013

International Commodities
Important Events for Today
Indicator Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact

Trade Balance

Japan

5:20am

-0.94T

-0.73T

-0.60T 0.60T

Medium

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