Commodities Evening Update

Monday | August 19, 2013

International Commodities

Content
Days overview Market Highlights Outlook Important Events for Today

Research Team
Reena Rohit Chief Manager Non-Agri Commodities and Currencies Reena.rohit@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6134 Anish Vyas Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

Angel Commodities Broking Pvt. Ltd. Registered Office: G-1, Ackruti Trade Centre, Rd. No. 7, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Corporate Office: 6th Floor, Ackruti Star, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Tel: (022) 2921 2000 MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM / CORP / 0037 NCDEX : Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302

Disclaimer: The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. The company does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. The document is not, and should not be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose without prior permission from Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd. Your feedback is appreciated on commodities@angelbroking.com

Commodities Evening Update

Monday | August 19, 2013 News and Analysis

International Commodities
Performance during the day
Index Nifty Sensex Nikkei Kospi FTSE Open High

Spot Rupee touches a new allt-time low of 63.223 today. Domestic equities end in red; 10-yr bond yields hit 5-yr high. Asian and European stocks decline; US stock futures flat. MCX Gold October futures touch a high of Rs31,000/10gm today.

as at 4.30 pm 19 August 13
Low Last % Chg from Prev day

5497.55 18587.38 13669.74 1917.32 50906.33

5499.65 18587.38 13758.13 1918.71 51554.77

5360.65 18139.15 13589.78 1909.80 50800.13

5414.75 18307.52 13758.13 1917.64 51538.78

-1.69 -1.56 0.79 -0.13 1.24

Source: Reuters

The Rupee depreciated 2.5 percent today and tested an all-time low of 63.223 today as lingering economic concerns coupled with weak domestic equity markets led to pressure on the Rupee. The Indian markets are reeling under major pressure due to the weaker Rupee and with continuing weakness in the currency, the costs of imports into the country are likely to rise further, thereby adding to the threat of rise in inflation. Ahead of the Federal Reserves Meeting Minutes, that is expected to be released on Wednesday, kept the world markets are on a threat radar. Equities in emerging and developing economies are expected to be hit the most as the advanced economies are now witnessing a recovery, while the emerging economies deal with a slowdown. After touching a high of $1384/oz today, Spot Gold prices slipped around 0.2 percent till 4.30pm IST. But on the MCX prices increased around 0.2 percent as a weaker Rupee helped cushion sharp downside. The MCX gold October futures contarct touched a high of Rs31,000/10gm and prices are now showing a positive trajectory ahead of the traditional demand season in India. But risk to the downside remains as the Fed is expected to begin its QE taper, in light of positive economic data from the worlds largest economy. Nymex crude oil prices slipped from an intraday high of $107.78/bbl and prices are currently hovering around $106.98/bbl. Till 4.30pm IST, prices have corrected around 0.5 percent and are fluctuating between gains and losses. Goldman Sachs raised its price forecasts for Brent crude oil on the back of expected supply disuruptions and geopolitical tensions in Libya and Iraq. The base metals complex witnessed a mixed movement on today as on one hand, it is last weeks positive economic data that is acting as a supportive factor, while on the other hand, markets become cautioned ahead of the FOMCs Meeting Minutes. Copper prices on the LME slipped from an intraday high of $7402/tonne today and corrected around 0.4 percent. Prices in the Indian markets also witnessed a correction and the near-month copper contract on the MCX is currently hovering around Rs464.50/kg.

as at 4.30 pm 19 August 13
Currency Dollar Index Euro/$ Spot INR/$ Spot Open High Low Current % Chg from Prev day

81.32 1.3326 62.35

81.42 1.3374 63.15

81.17 1.3314 62.225

81.255 1.3359 63.13

-0.05 0.23 2.40

Source: Reuters

as at 4.30 pm 19 August 13
Commodity Spot Gold Comex Gold Aug13 MCX Gold Oct13 Spot Silver Comex Silver Sept13 MCX Silver Sept13 Crude Oil Nymex Aug 13 ICE -Brent Crude Oil MCX Crude Oil Aug 13 Copper LME - 3 Month MCX Copper Aug13 Zinc LME - 3 Month Zinc MCX - Aug13 Lead LME - 3 Month Lead MCX - Aug13 Nickel LME - 3 Month Nickel MCX Aug13 Aluminum LME - 3 Month Aluminum MCX Aug13 Unit Open High Low Last % Chg from Prev day

$/oz $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz $/oz

1375.85 1379.00 30807.00 23.23 0.2296 51000 107.78 110.53 6726 7384.00 464.90 2000.25 123.05 2250 140.70 14930 938.00 1943.00 119.35

1384.10 1384.40 31000.0 23.60 0.2321 51132 107.78 110.67 6726 7402.50 465.20 2006.50 124.40 2257 141.70 14945 938.00 1949.00 120.20

1371.29 1372.70 30680.0 23.03 0.2285 50250 106.93 109.99 6663 7335.25 461.20 1989.00 122.50 2230 139.20 14800 923.00 1936.00 118.80

1373.51 1374.30 30899.00 23.21 0.23317 50640 106.98 110.40 6665 7341.75 464.50 2004.00 124.25 2255 141.55 14837 932.00 1944.50 119.85

-0.17 0.19 0.19 0.04 1.69 -0.04 -0.45 0.00 -1.32 -0.44 -0.59 0.07 -0.44 0.24 -0.21 -0.28 -0.43 0.03 -0.66

Rs/kg $/bbl

$/bbl Rs/bbl $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne

Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg

Source: Reuters

Commodities Evening Update

Monday | August 19, 2013

International Commodities
Outlook While domestic markets are under pressure due to the negative economic fundamentals, that is driving the Rupee weaker, international markets too are witnessing a state of caution ahead of the FOMC Meeting Minutes, that is expected to be released on Wednesday. Precious metal prices are expected to trade on a positive note as rising ETF holdings in case of gold and silver both, will be supportive. In the Indian markets, Rupee depreciation will lead to further upside in prices. Base metal prices are likely to witness a mixed movement as despite positive economic indicators from advanced economies, concern ahead of the FOMC Meetimg Minutes will act as a barrier to sharp increase in prices on the LME today. But depreciation in the Rupee is expected to be supportive for base metals on the MCX. Geopolitical concerns in case of crude oil will act as a supportive factor for prices today. And weakness in the Rupee will additionally support further upside. Technical Outook for evening session 19 August 13 ( CMP as of 4.30 pm)
Commodity Gold Oct'13 Spot Gold Silver Sept13 Spot Silver Crude Oil Aug13 Nymex Crude Oil Aug13 Natural Gas Aug13 LME Copper Copper Aug13 Zinc Aug13 Lead Aug13 Aluminum Aug13 Nickel Aug13 Unit Rs/10 gm $/oz Rs /kg $/oz Rs /bbl $/bbl Rs /mmBtu $/tonne Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Support 2 30600 1348 49850 22.46 6600 105.85 212 7280 458 122.5 139 118.5 914 Support 1 30750 1362 50200 22.83 6650 106.75 214 7320 461 123.3 140.5 119.2 922 CMP 30900 1374.4 50682 23.22 6682 107.2 217.4 7350 464.6 124.3 141.45 120 933 Resistance1 31010 1384 51100 23.50 6750 107.8 219 7400 467 125 142.5 120.8 940 Resistance 2 31150 1394 51400 23.8 6790 108.4 221 7460 469 125.9 143.2 121.5 950

Important Events for Today

Indicator Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact

Trade Balance

Japan

5:20am

-0.94T

-0.73T

-0.66T

Medium