Commodities Daily Report

Thursday| August 22, 22 2013

International Commodities

Content
Overview Precious Metals Energy Base Metals Important Events for today

Research Team
Reena Rohit Chief Manager Non-Agri Currencies and Commodities Reena.rohit@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6134 Anish Vyas Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Commodities Daily Report

Thursday| August 22, 22 2013

International Commodities
Overview
Indian Rupee touched an all-time low of 65.038 in todays trade. FOMC Minutes yesterday showed signs of QE tapering by year end. US Existing Home Sales increased to 5.39 million in last month. Chinas HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1 50.1-mark in August.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last INR/$ (Spot) 64.11 Prev day -1.6 1.6

as on 21 August, 2013 w-o-w -4.6 m-o-m -7.4 y-o-y -13.4

Asian markets are trading lower today on the back of statement from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke that QE tapering might begin by the end of the year if economy improves along with few members saying the pullback in stimulus measures should begin soon. US Existing Home Sales increased to 5.39 million in July as against a rise of 5.06 million in June. Chinas HSBC Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Manage Managers' Index (PMI) increased by 2.4 points to 50.1-mark mark in August from 47.7 47.7-level in July. The Dollar Index (DX) gained around 0.4 percent yesterday on the back of statement from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and its members that QE tapering is possible ble by this year if economy improves. Further, rise in risk aversion in global market sentiments exerted downside pressure on the currency. However, sharp upside in the currency was capped as a result of more than expected rise in US existing home sales data. The currency touched an intra-day day high of 81.55 and closed at 81.22 on Wednesday. The Indian Rupee depreciated around 1.6 percent in yesterdays trading session. The currency appreciated in the initial part of the trade on the back of measures taken by Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Tuesday. However, during the latter part of the trade e the currency erased its gains and depreciated on account of dollar demand from importers. Further, weak global and domestic markets and strength in the DX exerted downside pressure on the currency. The currency touched a fresh low of 64.545 and closed at 64.11 on Wednesday. For the month of August 2013, FII outflows totaled at Rs.919.80 crores st ($137.75 million) as on 21 August 2013. Year to date basis, net capital st inflows stood at Rs.65172.50 crores ($12348.0 million) till 21 August 2013. UKs Public Sector Net Borrowing declined by 1.6 billion Pounds in July as against a rise of 10.5 billion Pounds in June.

$/Euro (Spot)

1.3356

-0.4 0.4

0.8

1.3

6.6

Dollar Index NIFTY

81.22

0.4

-0.7

-1.4

2.2

5302.6

-1.8 1.8

-12.1

-12.1

-1.2

SENSEX

17905.9

-1.9 1.9

-11.2

-11.2

-2.1

DJIA

14897.6

-0.7 0.7

-2.9

-4.2

12.8

S&P

1642.8

-0.6 0.6

-2.9

-2.9

16.2

Source: Reuters

The Euro declined around 0.4 percent yesterday taking cues from strength in the DX. Further, weak global market sentiments exerted downside pressure on the currency. day low of 1.3334 and closed at The Euro touched an intra-day 1.3356 on Wednesday.

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Commodities Daily Report

Thursday| August 22, 22 2013

International Commodities
Bullion Gold
Market Highlights - Gold (% change) Spot gold prices declined around 0.4 percent yesterday on the back of strength in the DX. Additionally, weak global market sentiments after FOMC Minutes showed signs of QE tapering by end of the year exerted downside pressure on prices. Further drop in SPDR PDR gold holdings to 913.52 tonnes in yesterdays trade acted as a negative factor. The yellow metal touched an intra intraday low of $1359.49/oz and closed at $1365.75/oz in previous trading session. In the Indian markets, prices gained more than 2 percent as result of sharp depreciation in the Rupee and closed at Rs.31,444/10 gms after touching an intra-day day high of Rs.31,544/10 gms on Wednesday Wednesday.
Gold Gold (Spot) Unit $/oz Last 1365.7 Prev. day -0.4 as on 21 August, 2013 WoW 2.3 MoM 2.3 YoY -17.4

Gold (Spot Mumbai) Gold (LBMA-PM Fix) Comex Gold (Oct13) MCX Gold (Oct13)

Rs/10 gms $/oz

31400.0

1.3

15.5

15.5

5.4

1363.0

-0.7

2.8

2.7

-17.0

$/oz

1370.6

-0.2

0.7

3.7

-16.4

Rs /10 gms

31444.0

2.1

7.7

14.1

3.7

Silver
Taking cues from fall in gold prices along with h downside in base metals complex, Spot silver prices fell around 0.7 percent yesterday. Additionally, a stronger DX acted as a negative factor for prices. The white metal touched an intra-day day low of $22.72/oz and closed at $22.84/oz in yesterdays trading session. On the MCX, Silver September contract gained around 2 percent on the back of sharp depreciation in the Rupee and closed at Rs.51,446/kg after touching a high of Rs.51,775/kg on Wednesday. . Market Highlights - Silver (% change)
Silver Silver (Spot) Silver (Spot Mumbai) Silver (LBMA) Comex Silver (Sept13) MCX Silver (Sept13) Unit $/oz Rs/1 kg Last 22.8 51920.0 Prev day -0.7 1.7

Source: Reuters

as on 21 August, 2013 WoW 4.7 24.1 MoM 11.3 24.1 YoY -23.5 -5.1

$/oz $/ oz

2294.0 23.1

0.3 -0.4

6.7 5.9

15.0 14.5

-21.8 -21.6

Outlook
In todays session, we expect precious metals to trade lower on the back of strength in the DX. Further, weak global market sentiments on account of statement from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and its members that QE tapering program might begin from year end if economy improves. Additionally, y, fall in SPDR gold holdings will act as a negative factor. In the Indian markets, prices will trade on a positive note as a result of sharp depreciation in the Rupee. Technical Outlook
Unit Spot Gold MCX Gold Oct13 Spot Silver MCX Silver Sept13 $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz Rs/kg valid for August 22, 2013 Support 1355/1349 31204/30864 22.60/22.30 51075/50375 Resistance 1374/1385 31783/32120 23.20/23.50 52145/52845

Rs / kg

51446.0

2.0

10.5

21.8

-7.0

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Spot Gold

Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report

Thursday| August 22, 22 2013

International Commodities
Energy Crude Oil
Nymex crude oil prices declined by more than 1 percent yesterday on the back of statement from US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and its members that QE tapering program will start from year end if economy improves. Further, strength in the DX exerted downside pressure on prices However, sharp downside in prices was cushioned as a result of decline in US crude oil inventories. Crude oil prices touched an intra intra-day low of $103.50/bbl and closed at $103.90/bbl /bbl in yesterdays trading session On the MCX near-month contract, oil prices gained around 0. 0.5 percent as a result of Rupee depreciation and closed at Rs Rs.6745/bbl after touching an intra-day high of Rs.6798/bbl on Wednes Wednesday. EIA Inventories Data As per the US Energy Department (EIA) report, US crude oil inventories decline more than expected by 1.4 million barrels to 359.10 million barrels for the week ending on 16th August 2013. Gasoline stocks dropped sharply by 4.0 million barrels to 218.40 million barrels and whereas distillate stockpiles shoot up by 0.9 million barrels to 129.40 million barrels for the last week. Market Highlights - Crude Oil (% change)
Crude Oil Brent (Spot) Nymex Crude (Sep 13) ICE Brent Crude (Sep13) MCX Crude (Aug 13) Unit $/bbl $/bbl Last 112.8 103.9 Prev. day 0.1 -1.1 WoW 0.5 -2.8 as on 21 August, 2013 MoM 2.6 -1.6 YoY -3.2 7.4

$/bbl

109.8

-0.3

-0.4

1.5

-4.4

Rs/bbl

6745.0

0.5

3.2

5.9

25.7

Source: Reuters

Market Highlights - Natural Gas (% change)

Natural Gas (NG) Nymex NG MCX NG (Aug 13) Unit $/mmbtu Rs/ mmbtu Last 3.472 224.5 Prev. day 0.8 2.6

as on 21 August, 2013 MoM -7.93 -0.53 YoY 22.69 44.28

Source: Reuters

WoW 3.92 8.61

Technical Chart NYMEX Crude Oil

Natural Gas
EIA Inventories Forecast US Energy Information Administration (EIA) is scheduled to release its weekly inventories es and US natural gas inventory are expected to increase by 68 billion cubic feet (bcf) for the week ending on 16th August 2013. Outlook From the intra-day day perspective, we expect crude oil prices to trade on a mixed note on the back of decline in API and d US crude oil inventories along with supply concerns from Middle East after unrest in the region region. On the other hand, weak global market sentiments on account of statement from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and its members that QE tapering program might begin from year end if economy improves will act as a negative factor. In the Indian markets, depreciation in the Rupee will support an upside in crude oil prices. Technical Outlook
Unit NYMEX Crude Oil MCX Crude Aug13 $/bbl Rs/bbl valid for August 22, 2013 Support 103.10/102.25 6694/6654 Resistance 104.90/106.00 6817/6880
Source: Telequote Source: Telequote

Technical Chart NYMEX Natural Gas

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Commodities Daily Report

Thursday| August 22, 22 2013

International Commodities
Base Metals
The base metals pack traded on a negative note in yesterdays trade on the back of FOMC Minutes showed signs of QE tapering by end of the year. Further, strength in the DX along with weak global market sentiments exerted downside pressure on prices. However, sharp downside in prices was cushioned as a result of decline in LME inventories coupled with more than expected rise in US existing home sales data. In the Indian markets, depreciation in the Rupee supported an upside in the prices. Market Highlights - Base Metals (% change)
Unit LME Copper (3 month) MCX Copper (Aug13) LME Aluminum (3 month) MCX Aluminum (Aug13) LME Nickel (3 month) MCX Nickel (Aug13) LME Lead (3 month) MCX Lead (Aug13) LME Zinc (3 month) MCX Zinc (Aug13)
Source: Reuters

as on 21 August, 2013 WoW -0.7 MoM -7.3 YoY -4.3

Last 7271.0

Prev. day -0.7

$/tonne

Rs/kg

471.9

1.4

4.6

12.4

11.9

$/tonne

1902.0

-0.7

0.5

3.3

1.7

Rs /kg

120.5

1.7

5.7

12.1

17.7

Copper
Copper prices on the LME declined by 0.7 percent on the back of statement from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and its members that QE tapering is possible by year end if economy improves. However, strength in the DX coupled with weak global market sentiments acted as a negative factor. However, sharp downside in prices was cushioned on account of more than expected rise in US existing homes sales data data. Copper prices touched an intra-day day low of $7,253/tonne and closed at $7,271/tonne in yesterdays trade. On the MCX, the near-month copper contract gained by 1.4 percent as a result of depreciation in the Rupee and closed at Rs.471.90/kg after touching a high of Rs.473/kg on Wednesday. Outlook In todays session, we expect base metals prices to trade on a positive note on the back of favorable manufacturing data from China. Further, expectations of rise in manufacturing data from Euro Zone and US will support an upside in prices. However, sharp upside in prices will be capped on account of weak global market sentiments after statement from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and its members that QE tapering program might begin from year end if economy improves. Strength in the DX will also prevent gains. In the Indian markets, depreciation in the Rupee will lead to increase in prices. Technical Outlook
Unit MCX Copper Aug13 MCX Zinc Aug 13 MCX Lead Aug 13 MCX Aluminum Aug13 MCX Nickel Aug 13 Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg valid for August 22, 2013 Support 469.20/465.40 124.40/123.00 142.65/141.00 119.60/118.30 921.00/912.00 Resistance 475.65/479.40 126.60/128.00 144.90/146.50 121.70/123.00 933.00/942.00

$/tonne

14388.0

-2.4

-3.2

1.9

-10.4

Rs /kg

929.5

0.0

2.2

11.0

4.8

$/tonne

2219.0

-1.2

0.3

8.0

15.7

Rs /kg

143.3

1.1

6.1

17.7

35.4

$/tonne

1966.0

-1.0

0.7

4.9

7.4

Rs /kg

125.3

1.5

6.1

14.0

24.5

LME Inventories
Unit Copper Aluminum Nickel Zinc Lead tonnes tonnes tonnes tonnes tonnes 21st August 566,925 5,440,275 207,346 1,028,625 189,600 20th August 572,525 5,447,425 208,578 1,032,175 186,025 Actual Change -5,600 -7,150 -1,232 -3,550 3,575 (%) Change -1.0 -0.1 -0.6 -0.3 1.9
Source: Reuters

Technical Chart LME Copper

Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report

Thursday| August 22, 22 2013

International Commodities
Important Events for Today
Indicator Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact

HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI French Flash Manufacturing PMI French Flash Services PMI German Flash Manufacturing PMI German Flash Services PMI Flash Manufacturing PMI Flash Services PMI Unemployment Claims Flash Manufacturing PMI Jackson Hole Symposium

China Euro Euro Euro Euro Euro Euro US US All

7:15am 12:30pm 12:30pm 1:00pm 1:00pm 1:30pm 1:30pm 6:00pm 6:30pm Day 1

50.1 -

48.3 50.4 49.3 51.1 51.7 50.9 50.2 329K 54.1 -

47.7 49.7 48.6 50.7 51.3 50.3 49.8 320K 53.7 -

High High Medium High Medium Medium Medium High Medium Medium

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