Taliban warns against Karzai-Sharif deal

Two extraordinary statements appeared on the eve of the visit Afghan President Hamid Karzai to Pakistan on Monday, where his agenda is to take Prime Minister Nawaz Sharifs help and cooperation in facilitating a reconciliation process with the Taliban, which is at standstill at the moment, while the drawdown of NATO forces from Afghanistan is well under way and much uncertainty remains over the post-2014 scenario. Karzai himself created a stir in a remark that hangs somewhere between a studied statement and an impromptu observation when he told the media in Kabul on Sunday that he is in no hurry to conclude the status of forces agreement [SOFA] with the US that will determine the size and scope of continued American military presence in Afghanistan beyond 2014. Karzai literally put the cat among the pigeons by suggesting that SOFA could as well be finalized by the next Afghan president following the upcoming presidential election in April. The timing of the statement on the eve of Karzais trip to Pakistan will raise eyebrows in world capitals. Washington has been expecting the SOFA to be wrapped up by October, which in turn will enable President Barack Obama to make the decision regarding the establishment of the US military bases in Afghanistan. Things seem to be moving in a direction reminiscent of the US failure to wrap up a SOFA with Iraq, which compelled an eventual total American military withdrawal. Iraqi leader Nouri al-Maliki also played his cards as Karzai is doing close to his chest, blowing hot and cold alternatively till the penultimate hour and then, finally, throwing up his hands in apparent despair pleading he was helpless in forming a national consensus to back long-term American military presence in his country. Karzai would have a Plan B by now if Obama exercises what has come to be known as the zero option (read complete US withdrawal.) He probably pins hopes on reaching an understanding with Pakistans Sharif devolving upon a future dispensation in Kabul taking care of Pakistans legitimate interests, and Islamabad, in turn, adhering to a code of conduct that obviates the need for the military presence of a third country. It needs to be noted both during foreign policy advisor Sartaj Azizs joint press conference in Islamabad with the visiting US secretary of state John Kerry last month and in the course of Sharifs recent televised address to the nation (which was his first after becoming prime minister), there werewarnings held out to the Taliban that Islamabads patience is running out and there could be recourse to force to eliminate their militant activities inside Pakistan. Sharifs decision to tick off the Taliban publicly is unprecedented, and its domestic implications and its regional and international backdrop need to be assessed carefully. Equally, the statement by the Taliban that they do not want the involvement of any third country in restoring peace in Afghanistan becomes intriguing. The Taliban spokesman is quoted as sayingthey would closely monitor the outcome of President Hamid Karzais Pakistan visit. The expectations are low regarding Karzais visit, which is perfectly understandable. However, Afghan politics can take quite unexpected turns overnight and Afghanistan and Pakistan have a

complex relationship of kinship. The bottom line today is that it is of the utmost importance politically for Sharif to seek an urgent solution to Pakistans internal security problem, which is, however, increasingly being driven by elements based in Afghanistan. Therefore, some sort of modus vivendi between Islamabad and Kabul becomes necessary, especially given the element of ambivalence Karzai has suddenly introduced regarding the SOFA that ought to have provided the underpinning for continued US military presence in Afghanistan. It also needs to be borne in mind that Sharif is slated to meet Obama in another four weeks time.