Currencies Daily Report

Thursday| August 29, 2013

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Reena Rohit Chief Manager Non-Agri Commodities and Currencies Reena.rohit@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6134 Anish Vyas Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Currencies Daily Report

Thursday| August 29, 2013

Highlights
Indian Rupee touched all time low of 68.93 in yesterdays trade trade. US Pending Home Sales declined by 1.3 percent in month of July. GfK German Consumer Climate fell to 6.9-mark mark in month of August. UKs CBI Realized Sales increased to 27-mark mark in the current month.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last Prev. day

as on August 28, 2013 WoW MoM YoY

NIFTY SENSEX DJIA S&P FTSE KOSPI BOVESPA NIKKEI Nymex Crude (Aug13) - $/bbl Comex Gold (Aug13) - $/oz Comex Silver(Sept13) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% - Yield

5285.0 17996.2 14824.51 1635.0 17463.5 1959.2 58497.8 14506.3 110.10 1419.00 24.39

0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 5.3 -1.5 0.2 0.2 1.0 -0.1 -1.1

-9.4 -8.2 -0.5 -3.4 0.0 4.9 16.1 -0.1 6.0 3.5 5.9

-9.4 -8.2 -5.1 -3.4 3.8 2.4 20.7 0.7 2.0 8.3 22.5

-0.9 -1.6 13.1 16.0 16.5 0.5 2.0 66.3 14.3 -14.9 -20.9

Asian markets are trading higher today on the back of statement from US that limited military action will be taken against Syria along with unfavorable economic data from US in yesterdays trade led to ease in concerns of QE tapering from Federal Reserve. US Pending Home Sales declined by 1.3 percent in July as against a fall of 0.4 percent in June.

US Dollar Index
The US Dollar Index (DX) gained around 0.3 percent in yesterdays trading session on the back of more than expected fall in US pending home sales data. However, sharp upside in the currency was capped as a result of rise in risk appetite in global market sentiments in later part of the trade along with expectations that QE tapering from Federal Reserve will be delayed after unfavorable favorable economic data from the US. The currency touched an intra-day high of 81.64 and closed at 81.47 on Wednesd Wednesday.

7262.00 102.09

-0.6 0.0

-0.1 11.3

-7.4 9.2

-4.6 2.4

Dollar/INR
The Indian Rupee depreciated more than 3 percent in yesterdays trading session. The currency depreciated on the back of month end dollar demand from oil importers and companies. Further, concerns regarding Current Account Deficit (CAD) and d economy growth of the country exerted downside pressure on the currency. Additionally, outflow of foreign funds from equities and debt acted as a negative factor. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) tried to provide respite from free fall in currency by selling dollars at 68.75-levels levels but failed to provide support to the Rupee. . The currency touched an all time low of 68.93 and closed at 68.80 on Wednesday. To provide respite to free fall in the Rupee, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has decided to open a forex swap window for meeting the daily dollar requirements of three public sector oil marketing companies (IOC, HPCL and BPCL). Under this facility the central bank will undertake buy and sell USD-INR INR forex swaps for fixed period of time with the concerned rned companies through a designated bank. The facility will take place with immediate effect and remain in place till further notice. For the month of August 2013, FII outflows totaled at Rs.4937.70 crores th ($758.56 million) as on 28 August 2013. Year to date basis, net capital th inflows stood at Rs.61,154.70 crores ($11,727.20 million) till 28 August 2013. Outlook In todays session, we expect Rupee to trade on a positive note as a result of upbeat global and domestic market sentiments sentiments, swap facility made available by RBI along with weakness in the DX DX. However, sharp upside can be capped on account of forecast for decline in countrys GDP on Friday.

Source: Reuters

US Dollar (% change)
Last Prev. day WoW

as on August 28, 2013 MoM YoY

Dollar Index US $ / INR (Spot) US $ / INR Aug13 Futures (NSE) US $ / INR Aug13 Futures (MCX-SX)

81.47 68.80 68.43 68.42

0.3 -3.8 3.05 3.03

0.3 -7.3 15.86 15.84

-0.1 -15.6 15.86 15.84

2.5 -19.1 22.89 22.86

Technical Chart USD/INR

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
US Dollar/INR Sep13 (NSE/MCX-SX)

valid for August 29, 2013 Trend Sideways Support 68.0/67.50 Resistance 69.40/69.80

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Currencies Daily Report

Thursday| August 29, 2013

Euro/INR
The Euro declined around 0.4 percent in the yesterdays trade taking cues from strength in the DX. Further, weak economic data from the country exerted downside pressure on the currency However, downside movement in the currency was cushioned on account of recovery in global market sentiments. The Euro touched an intra-day low of 1.3304 and closed at 1.3338 on Wednesday. GfK German Consumer Climate fell to 6.9-mark mark in August as against a rise of 7-level level in July. German Import Prices rose by 0.3 percent in July from earlier fall of 0.8 percent a month ago. Italian Retail Sales fell around 0.2 percent in June with respect to rise of 0.1 percent a m month earlier. Outlook In today's session, we expect Euro to trade higher on the back of upbeat global market sentiments. Further, weakness in the DX will support an upside in the currency. Additionally, expectations of decline in German unemployment change ge data from the region will act as a positive factor factor. Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR Sep13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways 91.50/91.0 92.50/92.80 valid for August 29, 2013 Support Resistance

Euro (% change)
Last Prev. day

as on August 28, 2013 WoW MoM YoY

Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR July 13 Futures (NSE) Euro / INR July13 Futures (MCX-SX)

1.3338 90.09 88.5 88.5

-0.4 -2.9 -3.34 -3.34

-0.1 -4.1 12.94 12.91

0.6 -14.6 12.94 12.91

6.2 -22.5 26.67 26.62

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Euro

Source: Telequote

GBP (% change)

as on August 28, 2013

GBP/INR
The Sterling Pound depreciated by 0.14 percent in yesterdays trade on the back of stronger DX. However, sharp downside in the currency was prevented as result of statement from Bank of England Governor Carney indicating further easing in stimulus coupled with recovery in ma market sentiments. . The currency touched an intraday low of 1.5426 and closed at 1.5524 on Wednesday. UKs Confederation of British Industry (CBI) Realized Sales increased to 27-mark in August from earlier rise of 17-level level in July. Outlook Technical Chart Sterling Pound We expect Pound to trade on a positive note in today's trade on the back of weakness in the DX. Additionally, optimistic global market sentiments will support an upside in n the currency. Further, statement from Bank of England Governor Carney that central b banks will add stimulus measures if investor expectations for higher interest rates damage the hopes of recovery. Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR Sep 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways valid for August 29, 2013 Support 105.20/104.50 Resistance 106.40/107.0
Source: Telequote

Last

Prev. day

WoW

MoM

YoY

$ / GBP (Spot) GBP / INR (Spot) GBP / INR July13 Futures (NSE) GBP / INR July 13 Futures (MCX-SX)

1.5524 106.825 106.20

-0.14 0.14 3.63 3.14

-0.9 6.68 16.73

1.2 17.48 16.73

-1.8 21.26 20.73

106.12

3.38

16.64

16.64

20.58

Source: Reuters

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Currencies Daily Report

Thursday| August 29, 2013

JPY/INR
The Japanese Yen depreciated by 0.6 percent yesterday on the back of recovery in market sentiments in later ater part of the trade which le led to fall in demand for low yielding currency. The yen touched an intraday low of 97.83 before closing at 97.62 in the yesterdays trade. Japans Retail Sales declined by 0.3 percent in July as against a rise of 1.6 percent a month ago. Outlook We expect Yen to depreciate preciate in todays session on account of rise in risk appetite in global market sentiments which will lead to fall in demand for the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR Sep 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways valid for August 29, 2013 Support 70.40/70.0 Resistance 71.10/71.40

JPY (% change)
Last Prev day

as on August 28, 2013 WoW MoM YoY

JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR July13 Futures (NSE) JPY 100 / INR July13 Futures (MCX-SX)

97.62 0.704 70.45 70.13

0.6 2.86 3.74 3.27

0.0 7.38 17.63 17.07

-0.3 16.65 17.63 17.07

24.4 -0.65 -0.47 -0.91

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart JPY

Source: Telequote

Economic Indicators to be released on August 29, 2013

Indicator Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact

Retail Sales y/y German Prelim CPI m/m German Unemployment Change Italian 10-y Bond Auction Prelim GDP q/q Unemployment Claims FOMC Member Bullard Speaks

Japan Euro Euro Euro US US US

5:20am All day 1:25pm Tentative 6:00pm 6:00pm 6:20pm

-0.3% -

0.0% 0.2% -5K 2.2% 330K -

1.6% 0.5% -7K 4.46/1.3 1.7% 336K -

Medium Medium Medium Medium High High Medium

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