August 30, 2013

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The ValuEngine Weekly is an Investor Education newsletter focused on the quantitative approach to investing and the tools available from In today's fast-moving and globalized financial markets, it is easy to get overloaded with information. The winners will adopt an objective, scientific, independent and unemotional approach to investing. If you are not yet a member of ValuEngine's stock analysis service, sign up now for a two-week free trial at www.valuengine.com! ValuEngine.com.

VALUATION WARNING: Our models find that overvaluation is at levels typically seen when market pullbacks occur. Overvalued stocks now make up 73% of our stocks assigned a valuation and 40 % of those equities are calculated to be overvalued by 20% or more. 15 of 16 sectors are calculated to be overvalued--13 of them by double digits. MARKET OVERVIEW

Index
DJIA NASDAQ RUSSELL 2000 S&P 500

Week Open
15014.58 3661.8 1038.23 1664.29

Thurs. Close
14841 3620.3 1026.94 1638.17

Change
-173.58 -41.5 -11.29 -26.12

% Change
-1.16% -1.13% -1.09% -1.57%

YTD
13.73% 20.29% 20.91% 15.38%

Summary of VE Stock Universe

Stocks Undervalued Stocks Overvalued Stocks Undervalued by 20% Stocks Overvalued by 20% 27.17% 72.83% 12.31% 39.81%

SECTOR OVERVIEW
Sector
Aerospace Auto-Tires-Trucks Basic Materials Business Services Computer and Technology Construction Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Finance Industrial Products Medical Multi-Sector Conglomerates Oils-Energy Retail-Wholesale Transportation Utilities

Change
0.16% 0.23% -0.78% -0.12% 0.50% 0.01% -0.08% -0.13% -0.07% 0.14% 0.09% -0.27% 0.83% 0.34% 0.01% 0.18%

MTD
-0.46% 1.63% 2.26% -2.35% -1.34% -2.60% -0.47% -1.63% -2.56% 0.44% 0.73% -1.72% -1.22% -3.78% -0.98% -2.66%

YTD
25.65% 39.87% 2.49% 67.06% 25.57% 22.93% 28.13% 14.20% 21.73% 31.84% 195.89% 4.38% 22.56% 28.86% 19.25% 9.84%

Valuation
23.92% overvalued 30.89% overvalued 2.23% undervalued 21.00% overvalued 22.57% overvalued 14.57% overvalued 24.30% overvalued 16.76% overvalued 18.26% overvalued 21.40% overvalued 21.98% overvalued 24.66% overvalued 6.32% overvalued 23.41% overvalued 19.41% overvalued 7.26% overvalued

Last 12MReturn
34.08% 44.18% -21.68% 21.48% 21.55% 30.49% 27.19% 15.35% 13.77% 26.19% 22.65% 13.69% 2.16% 34.08% 24.33% 6.18%

P/E Ratio
17.35 19.53 19.35 23.01 29.47 23.75 24.18 21.61 17.17 21.46 25.16 16.89 26.44 22.69 19 18.68

ValuEngine Newsletters Latest Results

VE Newsletter Forecast MNS Dividend Stock Small Cap Stock View Current Month Total
0.53 -0.31 0.72 -2.55

S&P 500
-2.99 -1.33 -0.85 -1.05

Last Month Total

1.49 -3.72 -6.67 -3.93

S&P 500
0.17 -2.27 -2.57 -1.43

Since Inception
96.25 3.44 36.62 69.34

S&P 500
84.49 6.74 21.97 45.91

Sector TalkRetail/Wholesale
Below, we present the latest data on leading Retail/Wholesale Sector stocks from our Institutional software package (VEI). These results were filtered by market price and volume--no results below 3$/share or less than 100k shares/day volume.

Top-Five Retail/Wholesale Sector Stocks--Short-Term Forecast Returns

Ticker
DXLG BODY BGFV ARO NLS

Name
DESTINATION XL BODY CENTRAL CP BIG 5 SPORTING AEROPOSTALE INC NAUTILUS INC

Mkt Price
6.17 6.24 17.1 8.43 6.23

Valuation(%)
96.21 N/A -2 45.62 43.28

Last 12-M Retn(%)

52.35 -28.93 111.11 -38.51 160.67

Top-Five Retail/Wholesale Sector Stocks--Long-Term Forecast Returns

Ticker
DXLG BODY BGFV ARO NLS

Name
DESTINATION XL BODY CENTRAL CP BIG 5 SPORTING AEROPOSTALE INC NAUTILUS INC

Mkt Price
6.17 6.24 17.1 8.43 6.23

Valuation(%)
96.21 N/A -2 45.62 43.28

Last 12-M Retn(%)

52.35 -28.93 111.11 -38.51 160.67

Top-Five Retail/Wholesale Sector Stocks--Composite Score

Ticker
SPLS AHONY BGFV KR WAG

Name
STAPLES INC AHOLD N V ADR BIG 5 SPORTING KROGER CO WALGREEN CO

Mkt Price
14.12 16.4 17.1 36.4 47.07

Valuation(%)
-18.09 -10.72 -2 18.85 9.95

Last 12-M Retn(%)

32.46 32.33 111.11 63.96 32.97

Top-Five Retail/Wholesale Sector Stocks--Most Overvalued

Ticker
RSH FNP OWW OMX NFLX

Name
RADIOSHACK CORP FIFTH PACIFIC ORBITZ WORLDWID OFFICEMAX INC NETFLIX INC

Mkt Price
3.33 24.04 9.48 10.9 283.36

Valuation(%)
300 167.98 121.94 121.11 111.03

Last 12-M Retn(%)

33.73 85.64 253.73 93.26 350.14

Find out what Wall Street Investment and Media Professionals already know, ValuEngine offers sophisticated stock valuation and forecast research as well as a variety of portfolio screening and creation tools. If you are reading this you should sign up for ValuEngine's award-winning To Sign Up for a stock valuation and forecast FREE TRIAL, service Please Click HERE NO OBLIGATION, 30 DAY FREE TRIAL!

Free Download for Readers

As a bonus to our Free Weekly Newsletter subscribers, we are offering a FREE DOWNLOAD of one of our Detailed Stock Valuation Reports--this report is normally $25.00
This week's free download is for LORILLARD (LO). LORILLARD is the third largest manufacturer of cigarettes in the United States. Lorillard is the oldest continuously operating tobacco company in the U.S. Newport, Lorillard's flagship brand, is a menthol-flavored premium cigarette brand and the top selling menthol and second largest selling cigarette in the U.S. In addition to Newport, the Lorillard product line has five additional brand families marketed under the Kent, True, Maverick, Old Gold and Max brand names. These six brands include 44 different product offerings which vary in price, taste, flavor, length and packaging. Lorillard's manufactures all of its products at its Greensboro, North Carolina facility and maintains its headquarters there.

ValuEngine continues its BUY recommendation on LORILLARD CO for 2013-0828. Based on the information we have gathered and our resulting research, we feel that LORILLARD CO has the probability to OUTPERFORM average market performance for the next year. The company exhibits ATTRACTIVE Company Size and Sharpe Ratio.

Read our Complete Detailed Valuation Report on LORILLARD HERE.

What's Hot --Valuations Slip a Bit, but Still Overheated

The ValuEngine Valuation Model tracks more than 7000 US equities, ADRs, and foreign stock which trade on US exchanges. When EPS estimates are available for a given equity, our model calculates a level of mispricing or valuation percentage for that equity based on earnings estimates and what the stock should be worth if the market were totally rational and efficient--an academic exercise to be sure, but one which allows for useful comparisons between equities, sectors, and industries. Using our Valuation Model, we can currently assign a VE valuation calculation to more than 3600 stocks. We combine all of the equities with a valuation calculation to track market valuation figures and use them as a metric for making calls about the overall state of the market. Whenever we see levels in overvaluation levels in excess of @ 65% for the overall universe and/or 27% for the overvalued by 20% or more categories, we issue a valuation warning. We issued our latest valuation warning on May 8th. At that time, the S&P was at 1625. As of yesterday's close, we now calculate that 72.8% of stocks are overvalued and 39.8% of stocks are overvalued by 20% or more. Two factors can lower them, a market pullback, or a rise in earnings and EPS estimates. The recent market volatility has relieved some of the pressure, but the overvaluation levels remain high.. Investors are reminded to remain cautious against a move to the downside. Keep a close eye on the market and consider booking some profits. Subscribers Get FULL ACCESS to our Market and Sector Overviews

The chart below tracks the valuation metrics from January 2013 until today.

This chart shows overall universe under and over valuation in excess of 50% vs the S&P 500 from June 2012 to the present.

This chart shows overall universe under and over valuation in excess of 50% vs the S&P 500 from March 2007 to the present.

In addition to the overall valuation metrics, we see that on a sector basis 15 of 16 sectors are calculated to be overvalued. In the past, our Chief Market Strategist Richard Suttmeier has used the sector valuation figures to buttress his macro market calls. This is another indicator that investors should consider implementing additional risk management tools and/or booking some profits.

Suttmeier Says
--Commentary and Analysis from Chief Market Strategist Richard Suttmeier
If you have any comments or questions, send them to Rsuttmeier@Gmail.com Treasury Yields 10-Year--(2.784) Weekly and semiannual value levels are 2.836 and 3.227 with a daily pivot at 2.809 and monthly, annual, and semiannual risky levels at 2.601, 1.981 and 1.719.

Commodities and Forex Comex Gold ($1416.7) My monthly value level is $1229.7 with daily and weekly pivots at 1409.4 and 1416.8, and annual, quarterly and annual risky levels at $1599.9, $1603.0 and $1852.1. Nymex Crude Oil ($109.42) Daily, monthly and quarterly value levels are $105.82, $104.48 and $91.75 with my semiannual pivot at $109.84 and annual and weekly risky levels at $115.23 and $115.85. The Euro (1.3339) Monthly, annual, semiannual and quarterly value levels are 1.3313, 1.3257, 1.2477 and 1.1545 with daily, weekly and annual risky levels at 1.3391, 1.3436 and 1.4295. Major Indices Daily Dow: (14,825) Daily, quarterly and annual value levels are 14,754, 14,288 and 12,696 with the August 2 all time high at 15,658.43, and weekly, monthly and semiannual risky levels at 15,732, 16,188 and 16,490. S&P 500 (1635.0) Quarterly and annual value levels are 1525.6 and 1348.3 with a daily pivot at 1637.2, the August 2 all time high at 1709.67, and weekly, monthly and semiannual risky levels at 1744.8, 1742.5 and 1743.5. NASDAQ (3593) Quarterly and annual value levels are 3284 and 2806 with daily and monthly pivots at 3624 and 3663, the August 5 multi-year high at 3694.18, and semiannual and weekly risky levels at 3759 and 3830. NASDAQ 100 (NDX) (3072) Quarterly and annual value levels are 2983 and 2463 with a monthly pivot at 3080, a daily risky level at 3098, the August 13 multi-year high at 3149.24, and weekly and semiannual risky levels at 3257 and 3304. Dow Transports (6306) Annual and quarterly value levels are 5925, 5469 and 5348 with a daily risky level at 6385, the August 1 all time high at 6686.86, and weekly, monthly and semiannual risky levels at 6771, 7087 and 7104. Russell 2000 (1016.50) Quarterly and annual value levels are 1011.46, 863.05, 860.25 and 809.54 with a daily risky level at 1025.21, the August 5 all time high at 1063.52, and monthly and semiannual risky levels at 1092.24 and 1089.42.

The SOX (456.39) Quarterly and annual value levels are 404.59 and 338.03 with a daily pivot at 456.26, and weekly, monthly and semiannual risky levels at 480.52, 513.89 and 533.56. Dow Utilities: (480.87) A daily value level is 477.60 with a semiannual pivot at 481.92 with weekly, quarterly, semiannual, monthly and annual risky levels at 501.80, 510.38, 523.33, 530.15 and 540.37. Stock of the Day Express Inc (EXPR) ($21.09) Express, Inc. is a specialty retailer of women's and men's apparel in the United States. The Company operates retail outlets in high-traffic shopping malls, lifestyle centers and street locations across the United States. It also sells its products through its e-commerce website, express.com. Express targets women and men between 20 and 30 years of age. The Company offers its customers an edited assortment of apparel and accessories to address fashion needs across multiple aspects of their lifestyles, including work, casual and going-out occasions. Express, Inc. is headquartered in Columbus, Ohio.

Analysis Express Inc has a Buy rating according to ValuEngine with fair value at $17.64, which makes the stock 12.2% overvalued. The ValuEngine one-year price target is $22.03. The daily chart for Express shows rising momentum with the stock just below its 21-day and 50-day simple moving averages at $21.27 and $21.60 and above the 200-day simple moving average at $18.37. My quarterly value level is $16.65 with a weekly risky level at $21.80, which was tested on Wednesday.

New Appearance Scheduled All SouthEast US ValuEngine Readers and Clients are cordially invited to:

"Buy and Trade Replaces Buy and Hold" An Evening with ValuEngine Chief Market Strategist Richard Suttmeier Florida AAII Chapter Meeting Wednesday, September 18, 2013 at 6:30PM University Club of Winter Park 841 N. Park Ave. Winter Park, FL 32789

FIND OUT MORE HERE

Richard Suttmeier, Chief Market Strategist at ValuEngine.com & Contributor to TheStreet.com Richard Suttmeier has been a professional in the US Capital Markets since 1972 transferring his engineering skills to the trading and investment world. He earned a Bachelor of Industrial Engineering degree from Georgia Institute of Technology in 1966, and a Master of Science, Operations Research, Systems Analysis degree from Brooklyn Polytechnic University in 1970. Over the years Richard appeared many times in the financial media, on networks such as CNBC, CNN, CNNfn, New York 1, Bloomberg TV and radio, Fox Business, Business News Network in Canada, Wall Street Week with Fortune, Yahoo Finance Breakout, and the Bill Mazer Radio Show. In 2002, he anchored his own show on Yahoo Finance Vision called, "Traders' Club with Richard Suttmeier." Richard has been frequently quoted in USA Today, The NY Times, Wall Street Journal, Reuters, and The Dow Jones Newswires. Richard has made numerous speaking appearances in recent years to groups such as the Market Technicians Associations, the American Association of Individual Investors, Wells Fargo Advisors, the Executive Forum at the National Arts Club, and the Investors Roundtable of Wilmington NC.

Now YOU can take advantage of the same market and trading expertise as the financial media with Richard Suttmeier's ValuTrader Model Portfolio The ValuTrader Portfolio Newsletter is based on ValuEngine Chief Market Strategist Richard Suttmeier's proprietary market analytics. Suttmeier combines his technical analysis expertise with ValuEngine's proprietary valuation, forecast, and ratings data for more than 4000 equities trading on US markets to come up with a 20 stock portfolio tailored to current market conditions. With ValuTrader, subscribers access Suttmeier's "Buy and Trade" strategy with a portfolio designed to function well in both up and down markets. Every edition of Richard Suttmeier's ValuTrader model portfolio includes technical risk, pivot, and value levels, as well as critical ValuEngine data points-ratings, valuation, and forecast--for the current portfolio. Whenever Suttmeier buys a new stock or sells a current holding, subscribers receive an email alert so that they can take advantage of Suttmeier's proven market-timing expertise. The portfolio may include long as well as short positions according to Suttmeier's read of the markets. Click HERE to Sign Up for Chief Market Strategist Richard Suttmeier's ValuTrader Model Portfolio

With Richard Suttmeier's Morning Briefing, you get daily analysis of US Treasury Yields, Gold, Crude Oil, and Currency Exchange Rates-Dollar, Yen, Pound, and Euro--as well as key technical indicators for the major equity averages.

Click HERE to Sign Up for Chief Market Strategist Richard Suttmeier's Morning Briefing!

ValuEngine.com Tools and Services

We provide a variety of means for accessing ValuEngine market analysis and other content. You can find us on some of the leading financial media websites as well as the more popular social media services. While our own website ValuEngine.com provides access to lots of analysis--and you can always sign up to receive email daily and weekly bulletins HERE, some users prefer to download PDF reports of content while others prefer to garner info while browsing the web.

Our Chief Market Strategist Richard Suttmeier is a prolific market observer and you can find his content in a variety of places. His weekly column on Forbes provides insights into his "Buy and Trade" strategy while his daily market analysis can be followed and accessed at Scribd, Twitter, and Minyanville. Senior Editor Steve Hach re-posts PDFs and web-accessible copies of Daily and Weekly ValuEngine bulletins at Seeking Alpha and Scribd. In most cases, you can receive notification of VE content posting by Suttmeier and Hach by following the ValuEngine feed on twitter @ValuEngine. Links for this content are provided below, you may also find these links on our website HERE

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