Release date: 4th December 2013 Next release: 4th December 2013.

Retail trade, October 2013

Number 181

Gross domestic product, Q3 of 2013

The gross domestic product of Hungary increased by 1.8% according to raw data and by 1.6% according to seasonally and calendar adjusted data in the third quarter of 2013 compared to the corresponding period of the previous year. The economic performance was 0.9% higher compared to the previous quarter. The gross domestic product of the European Union (EU-28) increased by 0.2% in the third quarter compared to the previous quarter.

In the third quarter the performance of Hungarys agriculture increased by 27.6% after the low base in the corresponding period of the previous year. The gross value added of industry grew by 0.4%, of which that of manufacturing increased by 1.7%. Within manufacturing the highest growth are reported in manufacturing of transport equipment, whose driving force was exclusively export sales. Within manufacturing, amongst the significant industries, the highest fall was recorded in the manufacture of basic pharmaceutical products and pharmaceutical preparations, mainly due to the markedly declining demand in their export markets. The value added of construction increased by 7.3%. Within this both the construction of buildings and civil engineering works grew.

Gross domestic product (preliminary), Q4 of 2013, will be released on 14th February 2014

GDP volume indices, corresponding period of previous year=100.0

NACE

Denomination Agriculture, forestry, fishing Mining and quarrying, manufacturing and electricity Of which: Manufacturing Construction Services, total, of which: Wholesale and retail trade, accommodation and food service activities Transportation and storage Information and communication Financial and insurance activities Real estate activities Professional, scientific, technical and administrative activities Public administration, education, health and social work activities Arts, entertainment and other services Gross domestic product, total (at purchaser's prices)

2012 Q3 76.2 98.9 99.3 99.0 99.9 97.9 100.3 103.2 95.6 97.2 101.1 102.9 95.2 98.3

2013 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 77.0 106.7 125.7 127.6 96.4 96.6 98.7 100.4 97.3 97.0 99.1 101.7 94.3 101.9 105.8 107.3 98.9 100.0 99.6 100.1 97.7 98.2 96.9 100.3

A B-E C F G-T G+I H J K L M-N O-Q R-T

99.4 102.1 99.9 100.9 103.0 97.3 100.3 101.2 95.7 98.7 99.1 97.8 98.1 99.1 96.2 94.2 99.4 99.2 101.0 101.7

99.2 102.1 102.0 101.5 97.9 101.7 102.3 103.4 97.3 99.2 100.5 101.8

The gross value added of services increased by 0.1% in total compared to the same period of the previous year. The gross value added of wholesale and retail trade, accommodation and food service activities grew by 0.3%, of which the performance of accommodation and food services increased more considerably than that of wholesale and retail trade. Transportation and storage grew by 0.9%, and the value added of information and communication increased by 1.2% compared to the same period of previous year. The performance of financial and insurance activities decreased by 2.2%. Corporate borrowing increased slightly due to the loans provided at preferential rates to SMEs, but in case of households the volume of loans decreased significantly despite the low-cost options for home loans. The performance of both life and non-life insurance businesses further decreased compared to the same period of the previous year.The total value added of professional, scientific, technical and administrative activities increased by 1.7%, and that of public administration, education and health grew by 1.5%. The value added of arts, entertainment and other services was up by 3.4%. Considering the expenditure side of GDP, the final consumption of households stagnated in the third quarter of 2013, compared to a year earlier. Household final consumption expenditure, the main component of the final consumption of households, went up by 0.1%. Volume increases were recorded in the following groups of expenditures with large weight within household final consumption expenditure: transport, food service and accommodation activities, recreation and culture as well as food. Volume stagnated in the groups of housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels. In the group of alcoholic beverages and tobacco and in one of other goods and services a powerful decline was measured. The consumption of Hungarian tourists abroad decreased by a higher rate than the consumption of foreigners in Hungary. Social transfers in kind from the government declined by 0.2%, while the final consumption of government increased by 4.4%. As a result of all these trends, actual final consumption increased by 0.6% compared to the corresponding period of the previous year. The gross fixed capital formation increased by 8.2%, by higher rate than it had in the previous quarter. Both construction investments and investments in machinery and equipment went up. In the majority of industries a rise was measured. Concerning industries representing larger weight, investments in manufacturing and in wholesale and retail trade increased powerful, while investments in real estate activities dropped significantly. The volume of investments rose markedly in the area of agriculture and water and waste management. 2

Volume indices of the final use of GDP, corresponding period of previous year = 100.0
Denomination Household final consumption expenditure Social transfers in kind from government Social transfers in kind from NPISHs Actual final consumption of households Actual final consumption of government Actual consumption, total Gross fixed capital formation Changes in inventoriesa Gross capital formation Domestic use Exports Imports External trade balance of goods and servicesa Gross domestic product, total
a) For these items the volume index is not applicable.

2012 Q3 95,8 95,7 102,6 96,0 101,1 96,7 99,1 x 91,7 95,6 102,1 99,4 x 98,3 Q4 99,0 100,1 102,3 99,3 100,4 99,4 93,3 x 91,6 97,7 98,5 99,1 x 97,3 Q1 99,0 97,4 98,2 98,7 103,8 99,4 94,3 x 88,4 97,7 102,6 101,3 x 99,2

2013 Q2 100,1 99,2 97,7 99,9 105,5 100,6 105,4 x 109,3 102,1 103,5 105,5 x 100,5

Q3 100,1 99,8 96,8 100,0 104,4 100,6 108,2 x 103,6 101,2 106,0 105,8 x 101,8

Gross capital formation was 3.6% higher than one year before.

%
180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0

Volume indices of main aggregates of gross domestic product from expenditure side, average quarter of 2005=100.0

Household final consumption expenditure Gross fixed capital formation Exports

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

In total, domestic use increased by 1.2% in the third quarter.

In the balance of external trade there was a surplus of HUF 669 billion, still high at current prices. The volume of exports rose at a higher rate than one of imports (by 6.0% and by 5.8% respectively). The exports of goods increased by 7.2% and their imports by 6.3%. Exports volume of machinery and transport equipment increased at a higher rate than imports. The exports and imports volume of manufactured goods increased by the same rate. External trade in food, beverages and tobacco products was quickened. The volume of imports of fuels and electric energy increased due to the imports of petroleum, petroleum products and related materials. The imports of natural and manufactured gas did not reach the level of the corresponding period of the previous year. The exports of services (including tourism) went up by 0.9%, while their imports by 2.9%. According to seasonally adjusted data 1 the economic performance increased by 0.9% in the third quarter of 2013 as compared to the previous quarter. The value added of industry declined by 0.2%, while the performance of manufacturing increased by 0.9%. Construction rose by 2.8%. The value added of services increased by 0,2%, within the performance of financial and insurance activities and the real estate activities declined. Household final consumption expenditure stagnated. Social transfers in kind from the government declined by 0.3%. The actual final consumption of the government went up by 0.1%. Actual consumption decreased by 0.4% compared to the previous quarter. Exports and imports went up by 1.9% and 0.1%, respectively.

According to the first release of Eurostat, the total gross domestic product of the EU28 increased by 0.2% in Q3 2013 compared to the previous period. The gross domestic product rose in the eurozone by 0.1% while the GDP in Germany increased 0.3% compared to the previous period.
Quarterly time series are available back to 1995 in tables on our homepage. Further information: Anik Szraz, e-mail: aniko.szaraz@ksh.hu , phone: 36-1-345-1175 Zsuzsanna Boros, e-mail: zsuzsanna.boros@ksh.hu, phone: 36-1-345-6386 Details of seasonal adjustment and further methodological information can be found here: www.ksh.hu.

Comparison to the previous quarter is always based on seasonally and calendar-adjusted data.

Volume indices of gross domestic product (GDP), 2008-2013

(%) Adjusted for Not adjusted, raw calendar effects (the data (the corresponding corresponding period of previous period of previous year=100.0) year=100.0) Seasonally and calendar effects adjusted and reconciled data (the corresponding period of previous year=100.0) 102.0 102.2 101.0 97.8 100.8 93.3 92.4 92.5 95.2 93.3 99.3 100.9 102.1 102.0 101.0 102.2 101.6 101.2 101.3 101.6 98.8 98.6 98.3 97.5 98.3 99.7 100.5 101.6 Seasonally and calendar effects adjusted and reconciled data (previous quarter=100.0) 101.4 99.9 99.1 97.5

Period

2008 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Year 2009 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Year 2010 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Year 2011 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Year 2012 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Year 2013 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Year

102.1 102.4 101.7 97.7 100.8 92.8 92.0 92.4 95.6 93.3 99.9 100.8 101.6 101.7 101.0 102.5 101.3 101.3 101.3 101.6 99.4 98.4 98.3 97.3 98.3 99.2 100.5 101.8

101.6 102.4 101.6 97.7 100.8 93.2 92.0 92.4 95.6 93.3 100.0 100.8 101.6 101.7 101.0 102.5 101.3 101.3 101.4 101.6 99.0 98.5 98.5 97.4 98.3 99.7 100.5 101.8

96.7 98.9 99.2 100.3

100.8 100.5 100.4 100.2

101.1 99.9 100.0 100.3

98.6 99.6 99.7 99.5

100.9 100.4 100.9

Contribution to GDP growth, 2008-2013

(percentage points) Gross domestic product agriPeriod (GDP), culture, total forestry and fishing Production approach mining, construc- services, net domestic manufaction total taxes use, turing, on total and other products industry Expenditure approach of which: external actual gross balance final capital of goods consumption, formation, and total total servicesa)

2008. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Year 2009. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Year 2010. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Year 2011. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Year 2012. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Year 2013. Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Year

2.1 2.4 1.7 -2.3 0.9

0.6 1.7 3.0 2.1 1.8

0.7 0.1 -1.1 -2.7 -0.8

-0.7 -0.3 -0.4 -0.1 -0.4

1.0 0.5 0.1 -1.5 0.0

0.6 0.5 0.1 -0.1 0.3

0.9 4.3 1.9 -4.0 0.7

0.9 1.2 1.0 -3.4 -0.1

0.0 3.1 0.8 -0.6 0.8

1.2 -1.9 -0.2 1.7 0.2

-7.2 -8.0 -7.6 -4.4 -6.8

-0.2 -0.6 -0.6 -0.4 -0.5

-4.0 -4.4 -3.2 -1.1 -3.1

-0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2

-2.0 -2.0 -2.5 -1.8 -2.1

-0.9 -1.0 -1.1 -0.8 -0.9

-9.6 -13.6 -11.3 -7.0 -10.4

-3.9 -2.9 -5.2 -1.6 -3.4

-5.8 -10.7 -6.1 -5.3 -7.0

2.5 5.5 3.7 2.6 3.6

-0.1 0.8 1.6 1.7 1.1

-0.4 -0.6 -0.9 -0.6 -0.6

1.1 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.2

-0.2 -0.7 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4

-0.4 -0.4 0.3 0.3 0.0

-0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.1 -0.1

-2.1 0.1 1.3 1.2 0.2

-2.4 -3.0 -0.2 -2.0 -1.9

0.3 3.1 1.6 3.2 2.1

2.1 0.8 0.2 0.6 0.9

2.5 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.6

0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.4

0.9 0.0 -0.4 -0.2 0.0

0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.4 0.1

1.2 0.9 1.3 0.7 1.0

0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1

1.3 -0.4 -1.2 -1.4 -0.5

-0.1 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.2

1.4 -0.4 -1.6 -1.9 -0.7

1.2 1.7 2.6 2.6 2.1

-0.6 -1.6 -1.7 -2.7 -1.7

-0.1 -0.6 -1.3 -0.9 -0.7

0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.7 -0.3

-0.2 -0.4 0.0 -0.2 -0.2

-0.2 -0.2 0.1 -0.7 -0.3

0.0 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1

-2.5 -4.4 -4.0 -2.1 -3.3

-0.8 -0.7 -2.5 -0.4 -1.1

-1.7 -3.7 -1.5 -1.7 -2.2

1.9 2.8 2.4 -0.6 1.6

-0.8 0.5 1.8

0.2 0.9 1.4

-0.8 -0.3 0.2

0.0 0.2 0.3

0.0 -0.3 0.2

-0.2 -0.1 -0.1

-2.2 1.9 1.1

-0.5 0.5 0.4

-1.7 1.4 0.7

1.4 -1.4 0.7

a) Difference between exports and imports data of contribution to GDP growth.