10

TIMELINES OF THE FUTURE

Prediction Activity
Combine your knowledge of big history with your expectations and imagination of the future. Choose a topic and draft a timeline that depicts both the future that you predict will unfold and the one that you would prefer to see.
Tools you will need: Pencil Paper Instructions: 1.  Think of a topic that you have enjoyed studying throughout the big history course or one that youd like to explore in the context of big history. Be sure that your topic has been around long enough to cross at least THREE thresholds. For example, viruses have existed since the beginning of life (threshold 5), and persisted through the appearance of Homo sapiens (threshold 6), the development of agriculture (threshold 7), and the modern revolution (threshold 8). 2. P  rint out the timeline template included at the end of this activity, or draw one of your own. Then complete the following activities, detailing your timeline as you go. 3.  Label on the timeline up to 10 dates associated with your topic that fall sometime between the Big Bang and the present day. For example, for a topic such as viruses, you might label the following on your timeline: The first viral organisms, the first recorded reference to a virus, the identification of polio, and the development of a polio vaccine. 4.  Illustrate your timeline with at least FIVE images to show the past development of your topic.

5.  Label three major big history thresholds say, the Big Bang, chemical elements, life that your topic crosses. 6. T  hinking about the patterns or trends you observe so far, plot on your timeline at least THREE events that you predict will happen and THREE events that you would PREFER to happen. Illustrate where possible. 7. O  n a separate piece of paper, answer the following questions as you move along your timeline. a.  For the three major thresholds referenced in number 5, write a couple sentences describing how that threshold impacted your topic. Then label those thresholds on your timeline. b. Write a sentence or two describing the state of your topic today. c.  Explain the events youve noted on your predicted trajectory: Why do you expect them to happen, and what factors will make those outcomes more or less likely? d.  Explain the events youve noted on your preferred trajectory: Why would you like them to happen, and what factors will make those outcomes more or less likely? e. W  rite a few sentences describing the relationship between your predicted and preferred states. Why do you favor your preferred state over the predicted one? Why do you think the predicted state is more likely to occur than your preferred state?

8. O  n your future paths, note at least one future threshold that you foresee occurring that would impact the outcome of your topic. Write a few sentences describing each threshold, the factors that would lead up to and follow that threshold, and clearly describe how those factors would impact your concept. If possible, add time estimates. Describe any events or threats that could potentially derail both the predicted and preferred states.

A TIMELINE OF EVENTS

THRESHOLD 1

THE BIG BANG

THRESHOLD 2

STARS LIGHT UP
THRESHOLD 4 THRESHOLD 3

THRESHOLD 6

COLLECTIVE LEARNING
THRESHOLD 7

EARTH & THE SOLAR SYSTEM

THRESHOLD 5

THRESHOLD 8

NEW CHEMICAL ELEMENTS LIFE ON EARTH

THE MODERN REVOLUTION AGRICULTURE

billion ago 13.7 years

5 billion years ago

1 billion years ago

1 million years ago

5,000 years ago 1,000 years ago Today

EVIDENCE: IMAGES, EVENTS & EXCERPTS

PREFERRED EVENTS

10 years from now

100 years from now

1,000 years from now

1 million years from now

PREDICTED EVENTS