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The Impacts of Climate The Impacts of Climate Change On Agriculture
The Impacts of Climate The Impacts of Climate Change On Agriculture
Presentation Outline
Concepts of climate change Global trends of climate change Climate change impacts Impacts on vulnerable and poverty groups Adaptation and mitigation Conclusion
Concepts
What is climate change? The variation in the Earth's global climate or in regional climates over time, such as * variations in sunlight intensity * greenhouse gas emission * higher sunlight intensity, temperature rise * extreme temperature * unexpected rainfall, losses of ecosystem and so on Caused by processes of internal and external forces to the Earth More recently, human activities have contributed to climate change there is 90-95% likelihood that changes in modern climate have been in part caused by human actions.
of 70% in 1970-2004
10000
Eleven of the last twelve years rank among the twelve warmest years in the instrumental record of global surface temperature
year
Continued emissions would lead to further warming of 1.1C to 6.4C over the 21st century (best estimates: 1.8C - 4C)
2040
(440 ppm)
2005
(375 ppm)
Average arctic temperatures increased at almost twice the global average rate in the past 100 years
- Annual average arctic sea ice extent has shrunk by 2.7% per decade
The frequency of heavy precipitation events has increased over most land areas - Rainfall in Mumbai (India), 2005: 1 million people lost their homes
The proportion of tropical cyclones reaching higher intensity have increased over the past 3 decades
- Cyclone Nargis in Myanmar, 2008: 100 000 estimated deaths
Intense tropical cyclone activity has increased in the North Atlantic since about 1970
- Hurricane Katrina, 2005: up to $200 billion cost estimate
Heat waves have become more frequent over most land areas
- Heat wave in Europe, 2003: 35 000 deaths
Mountain glaciers and snow cover on average have declined in both hemispheres.
- The 18,000 year old Chacaltaya glacier, 5,300m (17,400 ft) up in the Andes, used to be the world's highest ski run, now reduced to a few small pieces of ice
Decline in agricultural productivity Infrastructure destruction Decline in GDP growth Decline in availability and quality of water resources Loss of welfare Poverty increase
Temperature
Global temperatures are likely to increase by 1.1 to 6.4C from 1990 to 2100 (best estimates 1.8 to 5.4)
Extreme events
Likely that future tropical cyclones, typhoons, and hurricanes will become more intense, with larger peak wind speeds and more heavy precipitation
Potential Impacts
Temperature
Rainfall
Extreme Weather Events are Projected to Increase Projected changes during the 21st century
Higher maximum temperatures; more hot days and heatwaves over nearly all land areas (very likely)
Examples of impacts
Higher minimum temperatures; fewer cold days frost days and cold spells over - Heat stress on livestock nearly all land areas (very likely) more intense precipitation events over many areas (very likely) increased summer drying over most mid-latitude continental interiors and associated risk of drought (likely) increase in tropical cyclone peak wind intensity, mean and peak precipitation intensities (likely) - Extended range of pests and diseases - Loss of some crop/fruit - Land slides, mudslides, damage to property and increased insurance costs - Reduced rangeland productivity, increased wildfires, decreased hydropower - Damage to various ecological and socioeconomic systems
More adverse than beneficial impacts on biological and socioeconomic systems are projected
Initially increased agricultural productivity in some midlatitude regions & reduction in the tropics and sub-tropics even with warming of a few degrees
2020s
2050s
2080s
Climate Precipitation increases very likely in high latitudes Decreases likely in most subtropical land regions
Source: CSIRO, Climate Adaptation Flagship, Australia
Climate-change impacts on aggregate crop production in developing and developed regions for projections of IPCC scenario A2, without economic adjustment.
Under A1FI reference scenario, rice production potential in SEA will initially increase and, after reaching a turning point in 2050, decline due to the changing patterns of temperature and precipitation. However, under climate stabilizing scenario (450ppm) the production potential will be maintained. Source: ADB (2009)
Climate-change induced yield effects by crop and management system, % change from yield with 2000 climate to yield with 2050 climate
Projected Change in Mean Surface Air Temperature for Southeast Asia under A1FI and B1 (with respect to baseline period of 19611990), C
- A1FI is a high emissions scenario , developed in IPCC (2000), by the end of this century temperatures could be more than 4C above 19801999 levels, ranging from 2.56C - B1 is a storyline and scenario family describes a convergent world with the same global population, which peaks mid-century and declines thereafter as in the A1 storyline, but with rapid change in economic structures toward a service and information economy, with reductions in material intensity and introduction of clean- and resource-efficient technologies. Source: IPCC (2007)
Rice Yield Change in Viet Nam (comparison with base year, 19801990), %
- A1FI is a high emissions scenario , developed in IPCC (2000), by the end of this century temperatures could be more than 4C above 19801999 levels, ranging from 2.56C - B1 is a storyline and scenario family describes a convergent world with the same global population, which peaks mid-century and declines thereafter as in the A1 storyline, but with rapid change in economic structures toward a service and information economy, with reductions in material intensity and introduction of clean- and resource-efficient technologies. Source: IPCC (2007)
Maize Yield Change in Viet Nam (comparison with base year, 19801990), %
- A1FI is a high emissions scenario , developed in IPCC (2000), by the end of this century temperatures could be more than 4C above 19801999 levels, ranging from 2.56C - B1 is a storyline and scenario family describes a convergent world with the same global population, which peaks mid-century and declines thereafter as in the A1 storyline, but with rapid change in economic structures toward a service and information economy, with reductions in material intensity and introduction of clean- and resource-efficient technologies. Source: IPCC (2007)
Potential Impact of Climate Change on East Asians Agriculture Southeast Asia, as a tropical region, has endured climate extremes that include the monsoon, tropical cyclones, El Nio and La Nia events, extreme variability in rainfall, and very high temperatures. Further climate change is predicted to make these conditions more acute and challenging with to the physical impact on people, their livelihoods, and the environment as a whole. Climate change is already affecting Southeast Asia and impacting many sectors. It has affected the quantity and quality of water resources. Extreme weather events such as drought, flooding, and tropical cyclones are increasing in frequency and intensity, and have contributed to a decline in the production of grains and industrial crops, fish supply, and forest harvests.
Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture in Asia Asia-Pacific region will experience the worst effect on rice and wheat yields worldwide, and decreased yields could threaten the food security of 1.6 billion people in South Asia. The crop model indicates that in South Asia, average yields in 2050 for crops will decline from 2000 levels by about 50 percent for wheat, 17 percent for rice, and about 6 percent for maize because of climate change. In east Asia and the pacific, yields in 2050 for crops will decline from 2000 levels by up to 20 percent for rice, 13 percent for soybean, 16 percent for wheat, and 4 percent for maize because of climate change.
Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture in Asia With climate change, average calorie availability in Asia in 2050 is expected to be about 15 percent lower and cereal consumption is projected to decline by as much as 24 percent compared to a no climate change scenario. In a no-climate change scenario, the number of malnourished children in South Asia would fall from 76 to 52 million between 2000 and 2050, and from 24 to 10 million in East Asia and the Pacific. Climate change will erase some of this progress, causing the number of malnourished children in 2050 to rise to 59 million in South Asia and to 14 million in East Asia and the Pacific, increasing the total number of malnourished children in Asia by about 11 million.
The Asian countries most vulnerable to climate change are Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Cambodia, India, Lao PDR, Myanmar, and Nepal. Afghanistan, Bangladesh, India, and Nepal are particularly vulnerable to declining crop yields due to glacial melting, floods, droughts, and erratic rainfall, among other factors. Asia is the most disaster-afflicted region in the world, accounting for about 89 percent of people affected by disasters worldwide.
To counteract the effects of climate change on nutrition, South Asia requires additional annual investments of 1.5 billion USD in rural development, and East Asia and the Pacific require almost 1 million USD more. Over half of these investments in both regions must be for irrigation expansion. More than 60 percent of the economically active population and their dependents2.2 billion people rely on agriculture for their livelihoods in developing parts of Asia
The main four climate related drivers on agriculture are: 1. Elevated carbon dioxide 2. Rainfall and associated water resource availability 3. Temperature both direct and indirect through evaporation 4. Extreme weather events (wind, flood damage) These drivers are interact and affect agricultural productivity, quality, pests and diseases.
impacts of climate change on food, fiber, forestry and fisheries, by time increment
. The developed countries could convert negative climate effect to positive with their adaptation capacity. Developing countries and world total only could be mitigating.
Potential implications
Water balance Water sufficiency Crops yields Food security Plantation Economic loss Infrastructure Repairs & reconstruction
Climate Factor
Projected Change in Maximum Monthly Value North West Region (West Coast, Perak, Kedah) North East Region (North east coast, Terengganu, Kelantan) Central Region (Klang, Selangor, Pahang) Southern Region (Johor, Southern Peninsula)
Rainfall Temperature
+ 6.2 % +1.80 0C
+ 32.8 % +1.88 0C
+ 8.0 % +1.38 0C
+ 2.9 % +1.74 0C
Vulnerability applies to countries, regions, economic sectors, individual etc. Vulnerability indicates an exposure to potential risks without having adequate capacity to cope with or adapt to changes in the environment
Vulnerability to climate change impacts Increased risk of floods, potentially displacing tens of millions of people, due to sea level rise and heavy rainfall events, especially in Small Island States and low-lying deltaic areas. Bangladesh is projected to lose about 17% of its land area with a sea level rise of one meter - very difficult to adapt due to lack of adaptive capacity
projected
present
Developing countries are the most vulnerable to climate change Impacts are worse - already more flood and drought prone and a large share of the economy is in climate sensitive sectors Lower capacity to adapt because of a lack of financial, institutional and technological capacity and access to knowledge Climate change is likely to impact disproportionately upon the poorest countries and the poorest persons within countries, exacerbating inequities in health status and access to adequate food, clean water and other resources. Net market sector effects are expected to be negative in most developing countries
Malaysia: Monthly Poverty Line Income (PLI), Incidence of Poverty and Hardcore Poverty, 2004
States
+ 32.8 % + 6.2 %
0C
+1.88 0C +1.80 0C
+ 32.8 % + 6.2 %
Water management
Decrease of freshwater availability affecting more than a billion people by 2050
Human health
Endemic morbidity and mortality due to diarrhoeal disease and exacerbation of abundance / toxicity of cholera in South Asia
What is Adaptation?
The adaptation involves developing ways to protect people and places by reducing their vulnerability to climate pattern. Agricultural adaptation options could be grouped as: (a) technological developments; (b) government programs; (c) farm production practice; and (d) farm financial management.
Adaptation and mitigation strategies Collection and conservation of germplasm Breeding and development of climate ready varieties Wide adaptation Multiple resistance to diseases Promotion of alternative crops Altering timing of crops Integrated crop pests management Integration of indigenous knowledge and modern science
Mitigation
What is Mitigation?
Mitigation involves attempts or mechanisms to slow the process of global climate change by lowering the level of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and such mechanisms that absorb carbon dioxide from the air and store it in the soil or in their trunks and roots. Mitigation, through reducing greenhouse gas emissions, will primarily be addressed through greater resource efficiency including:
1. Improving energy efficiency performance of new and existing buildings and influencing behavior of occupants 2. Reducing the need to travel and ensuring good accessibility to public and other sustainable modes of transport 3. Promoting land use that acts as carbon sinks 4. Encouraging development and use of renewable energy etc
Stabilisation levels (ppm CO2-eq) 445 - 535 535 - 590 590 - 710
Reduction of average annual GDP growth rates (percentage pts) < 0.12 < 0.1 < 0.06
What did we observe from climate change impacts from Asia and Asia Pacific Region, particularly for Malaysia?
Temperature rise and its impacts in the nearest future. Initial indication and the effects of climate change on agriculture. Mitigation and Adaptation options for climate change for agriculture sector and poverty groups. Policy challenges in the agriculture on the way towards adequate and smooth adaptation. Need for partnership between govt. & private sector and NGOs for success. It must be clearly understood that government alone cannot carry out the tasks identified in this document. Success will only be achieved through the total involvement of the private and nongovernmental sectors.
Stabilization scenarios
Change in global CO2 emissions in 2050 (% of 2000 emissions) -85 to -50 -60 to -30 -30 to +5 +10 to +60
Research, development and demonstration Appropriate energy infrastructure investments Regulations and standards Taxes and charges Carbon pricing
Main co-benefits of mitigation Health co-benefits from reduced air pollution - Benefits range from 30-50% of estimated mitigation costs up to a factor of 3 to 4 More employment - Solar PV and wind-energy generate 5.7 person-years of employment per 1 million US$ investment (over ten years); while coal industry generates only 4 Increased energy security
Mitigation actions can result in near-term co-benefits that may offset a substantial fraction of mitigation costs
Conclusion
By the end of the century, hundred of millions of people could be forced from their native land by rising sea levels, extreme events, floods and famines Food scarcity and the resulting higher food prices are pushing poverty further in poor countries Adaptation is necessary to cope with the impacts of already changing climate Agricultural adaptation to climate change otherwise productivity is projected to decline pushing more people to food insecurity
Adaptation is necessary to address impacts resulting from the warming which is already unavoidable due to past emissions Climate change requires forward-looking investment and planning responses that go beyond short-term responses to current climate variability
But adaptation alone is not expected to cope with all the projected effects of climate change
Delayed emission reductions significantly constrain the opportunities to achieve lower stabilization levels and increase the risk of more severe climate change impacts - IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
UNFCCC (1992)
The ultimate objective of this Convention and any related legal instruments that the Conference of the Parties may adopt is to achieve, in accordance with the relevant provisions of the Convention, stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Such a level should be achieved within a time-frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner.
Recognizing that deep cuts in global emissions will be required the Convention launched a comprehensive process to enable the full, effective and sustained implementation of the Convention, now, up to and beyond 2012, by addressing policy approaches and positive incentives [].
Commitment to keep the rise in average temperature below 2C Call for international measurement, reporting and verification emissions cuts, mitigation actions and finance $30bn fund for 2010-2012; $100bn by 2020 But no binding agreement and targets for emission reductions
Hope to make legally binding agreement to keep the rise in average temperature below 2C by all parties to the UNFCCC Further binding agreement and targets for emission reductions by the developed world under Kyoto protocol for the period of beyond 2012