A Turning Point for Pakistan?

Interviewee: Bruce O. Riedel, Senior Fellow, Foreign Policy, Saban Center for Middle East Policy, Brookings Institution Interviewer: Bernard Gwertzman, Consulting Editor June 5, 2013 Pakistan is at a crossroads, says Bruce Riedel, an expert on South Asia and career U.S. intelligence officer. Although the country's "internal security situation is grim," he says that the inauguration of Nawaz Sharif as prime minister--the first time that two Pakistani civilian governments have succeeded each other peacefully--is an encouraging milestone. Moreover, Riedel is hopeful that Sharif can deal successfully with India, which he says is "the single most important thing" for the future of South Asia. He urges Washington to take this opportunity to rebuild relations with Islamabad. "You can be pessimistic about Pakistan and you'll often be right, but Pakistan is too important to give up on," he says. What does the general security situation look like in Pakistan these days? Have things improved? When we talked a couple of years ago, you said the outlook was "dim and dismal." Pakistan's internal security situation is grim. This is a country literally under siege since September 11. Some 45,000 Pakistanis have been killed by terrorism and militant-related violence, and the election process that just ended was marked by a considerable amount of bloodshed. Over the years, the Pakistanis have allowed the development of a terrorist Frankenstein inside their own country. Successive U.S. presidents since George Bush senior have warned Pakistan that tolerating and even patronizing terrorist groups would sooner or later come home to haunt them. We have the consolation of being right, but not much consolation that there is any chance of improvement on the horizon. This will be Nawaz Sharif's third time as Pakistan's prime minister. He was overthrown the last time. And he was prime minister when Pakistan developed its nuclear weapons. Is he a friend of the United States? How would you describe him? We started with the bad news, so let's put in a little good news. This week Pakistan will accomplish something it's never done before. A democratically elected civilian government will fulfill its entire term in office and turn over power to another democratically elected civilian government. In sixty-five-plus years as a nation, Pakistan has never succeeded in doing this, so this is a milestone. Nawaz Sharif deserves some of the credit for it. As leader of the opposition for the last five years he very strongly committed himself to letting the government of President Asif Al Zardari serve out its full term in office. There were times when Sharif could have called for changes, could have tried to engineer the overturn of the government, but he insisted that the Zardari government be given its full term in office. So this is an accomplishment for Pakistan that shouldn't be underestimated.

The bad news, of course, is that violence racks the country, and the military still continues to control many of the most important national security issues, including the relationship with the United States and control over Pakistan's nuclear weapons and the development of their nuclear weapons. One other area of good news, though, is that Sharif, since his election, has committed himself to trying to improve relations with India, which is the single most important thing that would make the future of South Asia and Pakistan brighter. A dtente between India and Pakistan holds the key to helping make Pakistan a more normal country with a healthy civil-military balance, and would help with putting the terrorist Frankenstein back in the bottle. It won't be easy to do, but Sharif deserves credit for saying he intends to do this, and we should find ways to try and help him. And how can he do it? He said that he is going to meet early with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh of India. He has had a long conversation with him. What he would like to do is focus on increasing trade, improving transportation links, easing the visa situation for Indians and Pakistanis to move back and forth--small steps on a people-to-people level and on an economic level to try to improve the atmosphere between the two countries. And one of the reasons Sharif is doing this is because the economy he inherits in Pakistan is in shambles: There is very weak growth, a huge energy problem, a crumbling infrastructure. Sharif, who is at root an industrialist and a businessman, understands that the only real way Pakistan can hope to improve its economy is by linking its economic future to the fastest-growing economy in South Asia and one of the fastest-growing economies in the world--and that's India.